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Wilson Lai
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Research & Insights

Equity Research

TARIFFS IN FOCUS


Global Strategy Paper: Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market

Most equities have entered (or are on the cusp of) a bear market, not all of which are the same. The type of bear market has some bearing on the triggers, timing and speed of the recovery. We would argue that we are in an event-driven bear market (triggered by tariffs). However, it could easily morph into a cyclical bear market given growing recession risk. The average falls of around 30% are similar for both event-driven and cyclical bear markets, while they differ in terms of duration with event-driven downturns being shorter with a faster recovery profile.

8 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Peter Oppenheimer and others
 

Also see: Europe equities and the US Bear: We take down our STOXX Europe EPS growth to -7% and +0% for 2025 and 2026 (from 2% and 4%)

WEBCAST: Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market
10 Apr 2025 | 9:30am NY | 2:30pm LN

With Peter Oppenheimer and Chris Hussey

REGISTER


Global Markets Comment: After the Tariffs—Still Room to Price Recession

If the tariffs go into effect as announced, our US economists will likely move to a recession baseline forecast. Despite the large shift already in cyclical pricing, our "growth benchmarking" exercises suggest that the market is still not priced for an average recession.

8 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Dominic Wilson and others
 

US: Countdown to Recession 

We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% because of tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty. This baseline forecast still rests on our standing assumption that the effective US tariff rate will rise by 15pp in total, which would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9.  If these tariffs take effect, we expect to change our forecast to a recession.

6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker and others

  Research Unplugged: Macro Update: Countdown to Recession

With Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Kamakshya Trivedi, David Kostin, Lotfi Karoui and Allison Nathan

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Also see: US Economics Analyst: The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment, Hiring, and Consumer Spending (Rindels / Abecasis / Mericle)


China: Incremental GDP impact from potentially another 50% Trump tariff

China's retaliatory tariff of 34% on US goods, a response to US “reciprocal” tariffs, triggered a threat from President Trump to impose an additional 50% tariff if China does not withdraw its retaliatory tariff. Further statements from the Chinese government point to escalating trade tensions. Our analysis suggests an initial 50% tariff (which is roughly how much President Trump has imposed on China so far this year) would decrease Chinese GDP by 1.5pp. A second 50% tariff, however, would have a diminished impact, reducing GDP by only another 0.9pp.

8 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton and others
 

Also see: China: PBoC allows more flexibility on USD/CNY fixing on tariff escalation

Tariffs and the Dollar: Why We Flipped Our View

We have made a major shift in our Dollar view after seeing the developments of the last few weeks and rethinking the likely implications of these policy changes. We now expect recent Dollar weakness to persist, particularly in DXY terms. First, the combination of an unnecessary trade war and other uncertainty-raising policies is severely eroding consumer and business confidence. Second, negative trends in US governance and institutions are eroding the appeal of US assets for foreign investors. Third, rudimentary calculations and a constant back-and-forth makes it difficult for investors to price outcomes other than high uncertainty.

8 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Michael Cahill and others
 

Replay: The USD Outlook

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Global Markets Daily: Playing Defense in Credit

We investigate the risk-reward from going up in quality and keeping duration high relative to shortening duration and going down in quality. We find that adding spread via duration is preferable vs. lower quality names given the risks skew towards spread decompression.

8 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Shamshad Ali

Also see: Credit Notes: Before Day 3: Steady microstructure (for now), but lingering spread widening

US Daily: Tracking Tariffs

President Trump announced a “reciprocal” tariff plan on April 2. After incorporating the newly released product list, we estimate that the “reciprocal” tariff package would raise the US effective tariff rate by about 11.5pp if the package takes full effect on April 9. This and other tariffs announced since the beginning of the year would together push the US effective tariff rate from 2.5% to over 20%, and potential sectoral tariffs would pose additional upside risks to this estimate.

8 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others

Visit the Trade policy page for more >

EQUITY IMPLICATIONS

Asia Pacific Insurance: Tariffs and macro uncertainty to drive greater focus on B/S strength
8 Apr 2025 | 10:43am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Thomas Wang and others
China Healthcare: Thoughts on China-US "reciprocal" tariffs
8 Apr 2025 | 4:53pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Tianyi Yan and others
Australia Industrials: Tariff considerations
8 Apr 2025 | 6:21pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Niraj Shah and others
Japan Games: Estimating potential earnings impact of reciprocal tariffs
8 Apr 2025 | 9:24am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Minami Munakata and others
After market close on April 8,  Taiwan's finance ministry announced the activation of the  National Financial Stabilization Fund, a domestic financial mechanism established in 2000 with total usable capital of NT$500 billion (~US$15.5bn, or about 1.1% of the TWSE's free float), aiming to stabilize the market following a record decline of 9.7% in the TAIEX index on April 7 and another 4.0% drop on April 8, driven by heightened uncertainty regarding US tariff risks.
9 Apr 2025 | 1:58am| 9pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Alvin So, CFA and others
Samsung Electronics (SEC) released its 1Q25 pre-earnings guidance before the market open on April 8, with OP of W6.6tn above both GSe and Bloomberg consensus estimate of W5.3tn. While the company will likely provide more...
8 Apr 2025 | 10:24pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Giuni Lee and others

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Australia Metals & Mining Commodity demand risks increasing, downgrade bulk prices & 4 stocks, prefer FCF & strong balance sheets

The impact of tariffs on commodity demand is uncertain, but we expect some level of inventory chain destocking and a reduction in metal consumption over the next 6 months and therefore a negative impact on commodity prices to a certain degree. Notably, Chinese steel mills and manufacturing companies we met with on our recent China M&M trip expressed concern to us about the impact to demand and exports from US tariffs. Looking at prior commodity down cycles (2008, 2015, 2018, 2020), metals with tighter fundamentals and companies with FCF and strong balance sheets outperform during a downturn, and this time we see these as base metals over the bulks based on supply/demand fundamentals, and companies such as the major diversified miners RIO, BHP and S32, and pure plays BSL & SFR (upgrade to Buy).

BUY: Sandfire Resources  | Rio Tinto Ltd. | BHP Group Ltd. | South32 Ltd. | BlueScope Steel | Champion Iron Ltd. | Iluka Resources
SELL: Mineral Resources  | New Hope Corp.
NEUTRAL: Fortescue Metals Group  | Coronado Global Resources  | Whitehave Coal Ltd.  | Deterra Royalties Ltd. 

Paul Young
Co-head, APAC Natural Resources & Clean Energy | Sydney


8 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Paul Young and others  

RATING AND LIST CHANGES
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DAILY ROUNDUPS
Midday Market Intelligence: bouncy
9 Apr 2025 | 1:23am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
8 Apr 2025 | 8:45pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Asia
3-30 Apr 2025 | Shenzhen, Virtual
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
9 Apr 2025 | 1pm NY | 6pm LN | 1am HK(+1)
Chris Collins, Founder of Ohm Analytics
Brian Lee, Head of US Clean Technology Research
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
10 Apr 2025 | 10am NY | 3pm LN | 10pm HK
David Roman, US MedTech & Healthcare IT
Jamie Perse, US Healthcare Facilities Analyst