Equity Research

Global Views: On the Precipice

Despite some tariff relief, resilient hard data, and easier financial conditions, our 12-month US recession risk estimate remains 45%, in part because of a big weakening in the soft data. Our baseline is three consecutive 25bp Fed cuts, now starting in July. We are dovish on the ECB and especially the BoE, and have pushed back the next BoJ hike to January. We have softened our assumptions on China policy stimulus, in part because growth has held up better than expected under the tariff onslaught so far.

6 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius

Global Strategy Views: Asymmetric risks

We came into this year with markets reflecting optimism in the economic cycle, and in particular, US assets. The confidence that the relative performance patterns of recent years would persist through 2025 was tested in Q1. US macro data started to weaken relative to high expectations that had been boosted by hopes of de-regulation and tax cuts.

6 May 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Peter Oppenheimer and others

  Research Unplugged: On the precipice of another dip?

In this podcast, we listen in as Jan Hatzius and Peter Oppenheimer join Chris Hussey to discuss our below-consensus growth forecast in the US, how we see growth, inflation, and monetary policy shaping up around the world, and why markets are now offering up asymmetric downside following the rally off the early-April bottom.