Mid week market update 周中市场更新

This week has been exhausting这一周令人疲惫

Its not even Thursday yet and this week has already felt like it’s lasted three years. From the mid-day Monday melt down, to Tuesday’s SELL EVERYTHING wait not BUY BUY BUY no wait back to SELL EVERYTHING, and then yesterday’s ‘rally’, even when the market moves higher it doesn’t feel great or rewarding. Even when the market is moving in your favor you’re worried about another shoe dropping, leaving you paranoid, nervous, trigger happy, and unsure of what to do.
这周还没到星期四，但感觉已经过了三年。从周一中午的崩溃，到周二的“卖掉一切”，不，等一下，买买买，不，等会儿又回到“卖掉一切”，再到昨天的“反弹”，即使市场上涨也感觉不太好或没有回报。即使市场朝着有利的方向发展，你仍然担心会有其他坏消息出现，让你感到偏执、紧张、急于行动，不知道该怎么做。

Weirdly enough this isn’t a completely bad thing.
奇怪的是，这并不是一件完全糟糕的事情。

In the last three weeks the market has gone from pricing in less than 10% odds of recession by the end of the year, to pushing 40% (according to predictive markets). We had less than 25 bps of cuts priced in then and now briefly touched 75bps of cuts early Tuesday. With that macro backdrop change came a growth scare, the nasdaq pulling back more than 10% tip to tail, and the S&P 500 down 6%. Stagflation is now the hot new topic of fear. Meanwhile all of the retail favorites have gotten murdered, with some down 50%+ while the index is down close to 1/10th of that, putting the fear of God into a lot of market participants who thought they were the smartest guys around.
在过去三个星期里，市场从预计年末衰退的几率低于 10%，上升至 40%（根据预测市场）。当时我们预计的降息不到 25 个基点，而周二早些时候的降息触及了 75 个基点。随着宏观背景的变化，出现了增长担忧，纳斯达克指数回调超过 10%，标准普尔 500 指数下降了 6%。滞涨现在成为了大家热议的新恐惧话题。同时，所有零售热门股遭受重创，部分股票下跌超过 50%，而指数下跌不到其十分之一，这让许多认为自己聪明的市场参与者感到害怕。

With this chaos as a backdrop lets focus less on what has happened and more on what we think will happen next.
在这种混乱的背景下，让我们少关注发生了什么，而更多关注我们认为接下来会发生什么。

The first thing to understand is that true bottoms are events. They often have massive reversals intra day, or immediately the next day on obscene volume. They’re events because fundamental investors are able to look beyond the next 3 - 12 months of pain, think about how cheap everything has gotten and ignore any short term TA BS while they buy. This puts a floor in the market, one sellers can’t break, they exhaust themselves trying to push lower because ‘the technicals’ then when they’re out of ammo the market pops off the floor and they chase higher.
首先要理解的是，真正的底部是事件。它们通常在当天或第二天会有巨大的反转，伴随着惊人的成交量。它们之所以被称为事件，是因为基本面投资者能够超越接下来 3 到 12 个月的痛苦，考虑到一切变得多么便宜，并在购买时忽略任何短期的技术分析废话。这为市场设定了一个底线，卖家无法突破，他们在试图进一步下跌时耗尽了力气，因为“技术面”不再支持，等他们没有弹药时，市场就会从底部反弹，他们则追逐上涨。

Often, this leads to a rally for a few days then the market starts a choppy grind higher. Its only been the ‘22 pullback and the ‘20 COVID bottom where the market has roared for months after bottoming. That isn’t exactly historically normal to see 2x returns on the index level over the next 2 years. Just keep this in mind for risk limits once we get to the true bottoming event.
通常，这会导致市场反弹几天，然后市场开始震荡上涨。只有在 22 年的回调和 20 年的 COVID 底部之后，市场在触底后才会持续数月大幅上涨。在接下来的两年里，在指数层面上看到 2 倍回报并不完全是历史上正常的情况。请记住这一点，以便在我们达到真正的触底事件时设定风险限制。

In bear markets there are often multiple bottoms along the way. These provide opportunities to go long and make some money, but also need to be respected, as if we don’t mature the bear market past a normal 7 - 15% drawdown these smaller bottoms often serve as great entry points not just for the deadcat bounces but for the next six months+ of market action.
在熊市中，往往会出现多个底部。这些底部提供了做多和赚钱的机会，但也需要被尊重，因为如果我们没有将熊市发展到正常的 7% - 15%的回调，这些较小的底部往往不仅是死猫反弹的绝佳入场点，也是接下来六个月以上市场行动的良好切入点。

Given the levels of forced selling we saw Friday/Monday/Tuesday, and how many exhaustion candles have started printing in individual economically sensitive stocks, its time to ignore shorting/hedging more and starting adding to some of these names *if you think the recession odds of 40% are too high*. Full disclosure, I think team Trump wants a recession fast, but the near term odds of one should be closer to 15%. If you don’t think these odds are at extremes, and think the near term growth scare will explode to a full blown meltdown, then ya, mostly ignore the below list.
考虑到我们在周五/周一/周二看到的强制抛售水平，以及在个别经济敏感股票中开始出现的疲惫蜡烛数量，是时候忽略做空/对冲，开始增加一些这些股票的持仓*如果你认为 40%的衰退几率太高*。完全披露，我认为特朗普团队希望快速进入衰退，但短期内的衰退几率应该更接近 15%。如果你认为这些几率并不极端，并且认为短期内的增长恐慌会爆发成全面崩溃，那么是的，基本上忽略下面的列表。

Adding to the sense that we’re clearly close to a near term bottom, defensives have gotten sold the last few days. These are names that people gravitate to, like healthcare, staples, T/VZ, etc, that do well when their is fear in the market. They are always the last things sold before a bounce. Many defensives stopped moving higher on Monday and were killed on Tuesday.
增加了我们显然接近短期底部的感觉，过去几天防御性股票被抛售。这些是人们倾向于投资的股票，如医疗保健、必需品、T/VZ 等，在市场恐慌时表现良好。它们总是在反弹前最后被抛售。许多防御性股票在周一停止上涨，并在周二遭遇重创。

The entire consumer disc sector looks ready for a pop. Amazon and Tesla on the larger side, but airlines and autos both look down to the downside here. Given this is the sector where a lot of pods are short because of recessionary risks if these names start breaking out the near term upside could be explosive.
整个消费品盘片行业看起来准备好迎来反弹。亚马逊和特斯拉在较大方面，但航空公司和汽车在这里看起来都处于下行趋势。考虑到这是一个由于衰退风险而有很多空头的行业，如果这些公司开始突破，短期内的上涨可能会非常猛烈。

In the ‘these names weren’t hit as hard in the CD space so won’t go up as much near term but are likely better longs’ department, EA and TakeTwo both should do well into H2 as video games are more recession proof than movies/tv. Netflix goes into this camp as well even though it is movies and TV. I also like Capcom here on weakness.
在“这些名字在 CD 领域没有受到太大影响，因此短期内不会上涨太多，但可能是更好的长期投资”这一方面，EA 和 TakeTwo 在下半年应该表现良好，因为视频游戏比电影/电视更能抵御经济衰退。尽管 Netflix 是电影和电视，但它也属于这一类。我也喜欢在疲软时买入 Capcom。

Mall retailers ex-ANF and maybe AEO should do well as short squeezes in this space tend to be aggressive. Watch VSCO’s reaction today and GAP’s tomorrow to confirm this specific thesis. (Fun fact GAP was the reason I wrote this piece up, I was going to do a GAP specific deep dive and end with me saying I’m likely selling 17.5P for end of March today for .7~ a contract to get the yield to 3% but it was mostly a sentiment pitch given the speed at which its fallen and the fact that google trends haven’t deteriorated that much).
购物中心零售商 ex-ANF 和可能的 AEO 应该表现良好，因为这个领域的短期挤压往往很激烈。今天关注 VSCO 的反应，明天关注 GAP 的反应，以确认这个具体的论点。（有趣的是，GAP 是我写这篇文章的原因，我本打算做一个关于 GAP 的深入分析，并以我今天可能以每份合约 0.7~ 的价格出售 17.5P 结束，以使收益率达到 3%，但这主要是基于情绪的推测，因为它下跌的速度以及谷歌趋势并没有恶化太多）。

Outside of CD energy also looks interesting here. The commodity looks to be setting up for a solid bounce, XOP and XLE as well. I will have more thoughts on oil this weekend but I like the commodity here for about 2 - 5% upside and energy names all found some buyers yesterday. These names might trade sideways for a bit but if the EU economy and China stimmis do eventually turn higher energy should run in h2. As a reminder stay away from drillers.
除了 CD，能源在这里也看起来很有趣。该商品似乎正在为强劲反弹做准备，XOP 和 XLE 也是。我将在这个周末对石油有更多的想法，但我喜欢这个商品，预计有大约 2-5%的上涨空间，所有能源股票昨天都找到了买家。这些股票可能会横盘一段时间，但如果欧盟经济和中国的刺激措施最终回升，能源在下半年应该会走强。提醒一下，远离钻井公司。

In tech, Google looks decent here, Meta still looks bad, and none of the rest of semis/software/hardware looks great outside of maybe Adobe or Datadog, maybe. I still think tech is do-not-touch for a while. We’re not there yet.
在科技领域，谷歌在这里看起来还不错，Meta 仍然表现不佳，除了可能的 Adobe 或 Datadog，其他半导体/software/hardware 看起来都不太好。我仍然认为科技行业目前不宜接触。我们还没有到达那个时候。

Healthcare likely will be weak the next few weeks. Just keep that in mind.
医疗保健在接下来的几周可能会疲软。请记住这一点。

Materials should finally run and run hard as a byproduct of the EU debt expansion. HUN/DOW/CE all look good. Given where they’re FPEs are if the EU economy isn’t utter crap, they should ignore most top level market moves and lead.
材料最终应该会强劲上涨，这是欧盟债务扩张的副产品。HUN/DOW/CE 看起来都不错。考虑到它们的 FPE，如果欧盟经济不是完全糟糕，它们应该忽略大多数顶级市场波动并引领市场。

Last, China. I think again we’re setting up for a bit of a pullback in China in the next 10 days. Everyone is starting to agree that you need to be long China. That’s fine, and I won’t sell any of my long term holdings, but multiple days of +5% higher will lead to some pain. Be careful here.
最后，中国。我认为在接下来的 10 天里，我们再次准备在中国进行一些回调。每个人都开始一致认为你需要看好中国。这很好，我不会出售我的长期持有，但连续几天上涨超过 5%会带来一些痛苦。在这里要小心。

So that it, with futures down .5% as I write this remember this bottom call gets invalidated if we break Tuesdays low. If that happens we’re likely setting up for low lows until March Opex. If it doesn’t? I expect some rally caps out until that same date and then we die in April. Either way, keep your head on a swivel until we get an explosion of the P/C ratio and long term buyers stepping in. Until then, we’re only in these names for a good time, not a long time.
所以，随着期货下跌 0.5%，在我写这篇文章时，请记住，如果我们突破周二的低点，这个底部的判断就会失效。如果那样的话，我们可能会在三月的 Opex 之前形成低点。如果没有呢？我预计在同一日期之前会有一些反弹，然后我们在四月会崩溃。无论如何，在我们看到 P/C 比率的爆炸和长期买家的介入之前，保持警惕。直到那时，我们只是在这些股票中享受短暂的好时光，而不是长久的投资。