2022 年 12 月 15 日，中国人民银行大楼在北京。
China’s central bank on Wednesday kept major benchmark lending rates unchanged, as Beijing assesses the effects of its recent stimulus measures.
中国央行在星期三维持主要基准贷款利率不变，因为北京正在评估其近期刺激措施的效果。
The People’s Bank of China said it would keep the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%.
中国人民银行表示将把一年期贷款市场报价利率保持在 3.1%，五年期贷款市场报价利率保持在 3.6%。
Market watchers polled by Reuters had expected PBOC to keep the lending rates unchanged this month.
市场观察者在路透社的调查中预计，中国人民银行本月将保持贷款利率不变。
There was “no immediate need to adjust the LPR this month,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL, adding that the Chinese leaders were likely still assessing the impact of recent measures aimed at boosting the economy.
济 LL 大中华区首席经济学家兼研究负责人布鲁斯·庞表示：“本月没有必要立即调整贷款市场报价利率（LPR）”，并补充说，中国领导人可能仍在评估近期旨在振兴经济的措施的影响。
The record-low net interest margins at Chinese commercial banks have limited their ability to support lower lending rates, Pang said, “while another policy rate cut before the end of the year seems unlikely, there remains potential for interest rate cuts in 2025.”
中国商业银行的净利差创下历史新低，限制了它们支持降低利率的能力，庞氏表示：“尽管在年底前再次降息似乎不太可能，但在 2025 年仍有降息的潜力。”
The 1-year LPR affects corporate and most household loans in China, while the 5-year LPR acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates.
1 年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）影响中国企业及大多数家庭贷款，而 5 年期 LPR 则作为抵押贷款利率的基准。
The rate decision came after a cut of 25 basis points to both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs last month, and followed China’s October economic data that underscored lackluster momentum in the economy, despite the recent barrage of stimulus announcements.
该利率决定是在上个月对 1 年期和 5 年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）下调 25 个基点后做出的，并且是在中国 10 月份的经济数据显示出经济活力不足的背景下做出的，尽管最近公布了一系列刺激措施。
In October, China reported slower-than-expected industrial production and fixed asset investment growth. The annual decline of real estate investment from January to October also steepened from a year ago.
十月份，中国报告的工业生产和固定资产投资增速低于预期。从一月到十月，房地产投资的年度降幅也比去年加大。
Only retail sales beat expectations, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase, indicating that recent stimulus had started seeping into certain sectors of the economy.
仅零售销售超出预期，同比增加 4.8%，这表明近期的刺激措施已开始渗透到经济的某些领域。
Since late September, Chinese authorities have ramped up stimulus announcements to spur economic growth, which has been dragged down by a prolonged property crisis as well as weak consumer and business sentiment.
自九月底以来，中国当局加大了刺激措施的宣布，以推动经济增长，而经济增长受到长期房地产危机以及疲软的消费和商业信心的拖累。
Earlier this month, the Ministry of Finance unveiled a 5-year fiscal package totaling 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to tackle local government debt problems, while signaling more economic support could come next year.
本月早些时候，财政部公布了一项总额达到 10 万亿元人民币（约合 1.4 万亿美元）的五年财政计划，以应对地方政府债务问题，同时暗示明年可能会有更多经济支持。
China’s central bank also planned to maintain supportive monetary policy, said Governor Pan Gongsheng, who had indicated in October that there was still room to cut several key policy rates by end of the year.
中国央行也计划维持宽松的货币政策，潘功胜行长表示，他在十月份曾指出，到年底仍然有空间下调几项关键政策利率。
Morgan Stanley expects China’s growth to slow to around 4% in each of the next two years, and has downgraded Chinese equities to “slight underweight” in a note dated Sunday, naming a deflationary environment and rising trade tensions as risks.
摩根士丹利预计中国的增长将在未来两年内放缓至约 4%，并在周日的报告中将中国股票评级下调至“轻微低配”，指出通货紧缩环境和日益加剧的贸易紧张作为风险。
“We see a low limited chance that Chinese government will front-load enough fiscal stimulus to target consumption and housing,” the analysts said.
分析师表示：“我们看到中国政府提前释放足够的财政刺激以刺激消费和住房的机会渺茫。”
Goldman Sachs also estimated that China’s GDP growth could decelerate to 4.5% in 2025, from 4.9% this year, according to the bank’s note on Monday.
高盛估计，根据该行周一的报告，中国的 GDP 增长可能会从今年的 4.9%放缓至 2025 年的 4.5%。
Goldman, however, maintained “overweight” stance on China equities, forecasting a 13% upside to the benchmark CSI 300 index next year.
高盛仍然对中国股票持“增持”观点，预测明年 CSI 300 指数将上涨 13%。
Donald Trump’s election victory, which is likely to bring higher tariffs on Chinese exports, has added to the uncertainty over China’s export-heavy economy.
唐纳德·特朗普的选举胜利可能会对中国出口加征更高的关税，这增加了中国出口导向型经济的不确定性。
