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WBC-MorningReport_26Aug2024_Watermark.pdf

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  1. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.WESTPAC ECONOMICS 1MORNING REPORT26 August 2024Key themesEquities rallied across key markets after Fed Chair Powell said “the time has come for policy to adjust,” clearly signalling that the Fed is likely to begin cutting rates in September. Bond yields tumbled in the US and Europe following Powell’s remarks. The US dollar index continued to slide, falling to its lowest intraday value since July 2023. The Aussie outperformed, increasing to its equal highest intraday level since late December 2023 against the greenback. There was a bout of heightened instability in the Middle East over the weekend, which threatened so engulf the region. Tensions now look to have deescalated. This will help limit any impacts on the price of oil and financial markets more broadly.Data snapshotData as at 7:30am AEDT. Change is from the previous trading day (excluding the SFE, which is the change during the night session). Source: Bloomberg. Today's economic developments and market movements.FX Last 24 hrs Current Change AUS Interest Rate Swaps Last ChangeTWI 62.1 -0.2% 30 day BBSY 4.35 0.00AUD/USD 0.6794 1.3% 90 day BBSY 4.40 -0.01AUD/JPY 97.85 0.0% 180 day BBSY 4.53 0.00AUD/GBP 0.5142 0.4% 1 year swap 4.00 0.02AUD/NZD 1.0906 -0.2% 2 year swap 3.69 0.04AUD/EUR 0.6070 0.6% 3 year swap 3.56 0.06AUD/CNH 4.8351 0.9% 4 year swap 3.55 -0.06AUD/SGD 0.8842 0.6% 5 year swap 3.59 -0.05AUD/HKD 5.2980 1.4% 6 year swap 3.65 -0.05AUD/CAD 0.9177 0.5% 7 year swap 3.73 -0.05EUR/USD 1.1192 0.7% 8 year swap 3.79 -0.05USD/JPY 144.04 -1.3% 9 year swap 3.85 -0.05USD Index 100.72 -0.8% 10 year swap 4.03 -0.04Equities Close Change Government Bond Yields Close ChangeS&P/ASX 200 8,024 0.0% AustraliaS&P 500 5,635 1.1% 3 year bond 3.55 0.03Japan Nikkei 38,364 0.4% 10 year bond 3.92 0.03Hang Seng 17,612 -0.2% United StatesEuro Stoxx 50 4,909 0.5% 3-month T Bill 5.00 -0.03UK FTSE100 8,328 0.5% 2 year bond 3.92 -0.09VIX Index 15.86 -9.6% 10 year bond 3.80 -0.05Other (10 year yields)Commodities Current Change Germany 2.23 -0.02CRB Index 278.72 1.5% Japan 0.90 0.02Gold 2512.59 1.1% UK 3.91 -0.05Copper 9210.78 1.8%Oil (WTI futures) 74.83 2.5% Sydney Futures Exchange Current ChangeCoal (coking) 196.00 -1.5% 10 yr bond 3.90 -0.03Coal (thermal) 147.15 -0.6% 3 yr bond 3.49 -0.04Iron Ore 97.10 -1.0% 3 mth bill rate 4.34 0.01ACCU 34.98 1.2% SPI 200 8,025 0.5%
  2. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.WESTPAC ECONOMICS 2TODAY’S INSIGHTSToday’s key data and eventsTime Event Exp Prev6:00pm EZ IFO business climate survey Aug10:30pmUS Durable goods orders Jul12:30am US Dallas Fed index Aug Times are AEST. All data forecasts are m/m or q/q and seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Forecasts for Australian data are our forecasts and for other countries they are consensus forecasts. Share markets:Equities rallied across key markets following US Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole. The MSCI gauge of global shares reached an all-time high on Friday. In the US, the rally was broad based with Bloomberg’s “Magnificent Seven” gauge of megacaps up 1.7%, and the Russell 2000 index of small firms up 3.2%. Looking at key indices, the S&P 500 closed 1.2% higher to end the week 1.5% higher. The Dow Jones closed 1.1% higher on Friday, to end the week 1.3% in the green. The tech heavy Nasdaq outperformed, up 1.5% on Friday and 1.4% over the week.European markets were also higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 0.5% higher to finish the week up 1.4%. The DAX was 0.8% higher to finish the week 1.7% higher. The FTSE 100 closed 0.5% higher on Friday and was 0.2% higher over the week.The ASX200 index was broadly unchanged (down 0.04%) on Friday, to end the week 0.7% higher. Five of eleven sectors finished the day lower, led by materials stocks. Futures are pointing to a strong open this morning.Interest rates:US bond yields were lower across the curve. The US 2-year bond yield declined 9 basis points to below 4.0% - at 3.92%. The 10-year treasury yield declined 5 basis points to 3.80%. Interest-rate markets are pricing in around 100 basis points of cuts by the US Fed over the remainder of 2024. There a further 130 basis points of cuts priced in for 2025. This has shifted from 95 basis points of cuts in 2024, and 100 basis points in 2025, just a week ago. Australian yields were also lower. The 3-year government bond yield (futures) declined 4 basis points to 3.49%, while the 10-year government bond yield declined 3 basis points to 3.90%. Markets are now pricing in one full rate cut by the end of 2024 (or around 21 basis points), and a further 75 basis points of cuts over 2025. Foreign exchange: The US dollar continued its decline, with the US dollar index down 0.8%, reaching a low of 100.602 -the lowest level since July 2023. As we had previously noted the US dollar index was vulnerable, particularly if Chair Powell clearly signalled it was time to pivot at Jackson Hole. The Aussie outperformed. The AUD/USD was 1.3% higher at 0.6795. It reached an intraday high of 0.6799 – the equal highest level since late December 2023. Continued resilience in the labour market, hawkish comments by RBA officials as well as the pickup in carry trade are providing the Aussie with a tailwind.The Yen made gains against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY down 1.3% to 144.37. Commodities: The prices of key commodities were mixed. The price of oil increased 2.5% on the back of Powell’s remarks. This WTI futures is currently trading at around US$74.83 per barrel. Iron ore markets stabilised but remain vulnerable given the weakness in global steel markets. Iron ore is now sitting at US$97.10 a tonne. Australia: There were no major economic data releases on Friday. New Zealand:Retail sales volumes fell 1.2% in the June quarter, following a modest 0.5% increase in the March quarter. The result was softer than the fall of 1.0% expected by the market. Eleven of the fifteen retail components reported lower volumes, including electrical and electronic goods; motor vehicle; food and beverage services; and clothing, footwear, and personal accessories. On an annual basis, retail sales dropped a large 3.6% in the June quarter.Eurozone:The ECB’s consumer expectations survey showed that inflation expectations remained at 2.8% over the next 12 months in July. Medium term (or three year) expectations edged marginally higher to 2.4% from 2.3%.Japan:Annual inflation came in at 2.8% in July, unchanged for the third consecutive month and remaining at its highest level since February this year. Energy (electricity and gas) costs jumped following the full end of the government’s energy subsidies. Core inflation rate hit a five-month peak of 2.7% in July, accelerating for the third straight month. Pat BustamanteSenior Economist, Westpac GroupP: +61 468 571 786E: pat.bustamante@westpac.com.au
  3. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.WESTPAC ECONOMICS 3United Kingdom:The GfK consumer confidence indicator was unchanged at -13 index points in August, broadly consistent with the -12 index points expected by the market. Looking at the subcomponents, confidence over personal finances improved, while sentiment around the health of the broader economy slipped further.United States:US Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium clearly signalled that the ed is ready to start easing policy and lowering rates. Powell stated that “the time has come for policy to adjust” and that the balance of risks had shifted. Powell noted that “labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019”, “a year when inflation ran below 2 percent”. It therefore “seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon”. On the timing and scale of rate cuts, Powell seemed unhurried, stating that “the timing and pace of rate cuts... [to] depend on incoming data”, and the current “policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions”. Westpac Economics view remains that the Fed will start cutting rates by 25 basis points cuts from September, albeit with the option to upsize to a 50 basis points cut should conditions and the balance of risks warrant it. The expressed views of Chair Powell also point to a run towards neutral, not through it. This is consistent with our cumulative 200 basis points of rate cuts forecast to end-2025 which would see the fed funds rate at 3.375%.Sales of new homes jumped 10.6% to 739k homes in July. This was well above the 1.0% increase expected by the market. It was the sharpest monthly increase since August 2022, and the highest level of sales in almost one year. Despite the increase, sales remain 11% lower than the most recent peak of late 2021.
  4. westpaciq.com.auAuthorsWestpac EconomicsLuci Ellis Chief Economist Westpac GroupE: luci.ellis@westpac.com.auMatthew Hassan Head of Australian Macro-ForecastingE: mhassan@westpac.com.auElliot Clarke Head of International EconomicsE: eclarke@westpac.com.auJustin SmirkSenior EconomistE: jsmirk@westpac.com.auPat Bustamante Senior Economist E: pat.bustamante@westpac.com.auRyan WellsEconomist E: ryan.wells@westpac.com.auIlliana JainEconomist E: illiana.jain@westpac.com.auJameson Coombs Economist E: jameson.coombs@westpac.com.au
  5. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.WESTPAC ECONOMICS 5DISCLAIMER©2024 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.Things you should know We respect your privacy: You can view our privacy statement at Westpac.com.au. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.DisclaimerThis information has been prepared by Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts. Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument. Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material. The author(s) also confirms that this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate. Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.Additional country disclosures:Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.New Zealand: In New Zealand, products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac (“WNZL”). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz.Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking Disclaimer continues overleaf
  6. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.WESTPAC ECONOMICS 6DISCLAIMERlicence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any nonU.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of nonU.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. selfregulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.UK and EU: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request. Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac. This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. 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Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party. This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. 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