Opinion | Is biotech the next battleground in US-China decoupling? 观点 | 生物科技是中美脱钩的下一个战场吗？
With both countries viewing technological leadership as a zero-sum game, the risk of a fragmented global innovation ecosystem is growing 由于两国都将技术领先地位视为零和游戏，全球创新生态系统碎片化的风险正在增加
The Biosecure Act, recently passed by the US House of Representatives, marks a significant escalation in efforts to decouple the American and Chinese biotech ecosystems. The bill, which passed with strong bipartisan support, would prohibit federal funding for US companies that do business with several named Chinese biotech firms, including industry giants Wuxi AppTec and BGI Genomics. 美国众议院最近通过的《生物安全法案》标志着美国和中国生物技术生态系统脱钩的努力显着升级。该法案在两党的大力支持下获得通过，将禁止联邦资助与几家中国生物技术公司有业务往来的美国公司，包括行业巨头药明康德和华大基因。
This move reflects growing concerns in Washington about China’s ambitions in the life sciences and the potential national security risks posed by Beijing’s access to sensitive genetic and healthcare data. 此举反映出华盛顿对中国在生命科学领域的雄心以及北京获取敏感基因和医疗保健数据所带来的潜在国家安全风险的日益担忧。
Proponents of the act argue that the legislation is essential to protect American interests and maintain technological leadership. The US government has increasingly prioritised safeguarding its technological advantage, as demonstrated by similar legislative measures in other hi-tech sectors, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) and clean energy. In this context, legislating biosecurity is seen as a natural continuation of these decoupling efforts. 该法案的支持者认为，该立法对于保护美国利益和保持技术领先地位至关重要。美国政府越来越重视维护其技术优势，半导体、人工智能 （AI） 和清洁能源等其他高科技领域的类似立法措施就证明了这一点。在这种情况下，生物安全立法被视为这些脱钩努力的自然延续。
However, severing ties with Chinese biotech companies could hamper global scientific collaboration and slow the development of new treatments. The biotech industry has become deeply intertwined, with US firms relying heavily on Chinese contract research and development manufacturing organisations (CROs and CDMOs) for development and production. 然而，与中国生物技术公司断绝关系可能会阻碍全球科学合作并减缓新疗法的开发。生物技术行业已经变得紧密交织在一起，美国公司严重依赖中国的合同研发制造组织 （CRO 和 CDMO） 进行开发和生产。
An ageing population is driving demand for new drugs and treatments, increasing the complexity of disease management. Conditions such as cancer, Alzheimer’s and chronic illnesses are becoming more prevalent, further complicating the already lengthy and costly drug development process, typically taking 10 to 15 years and costing upwards of billions of dollars. Estimates suggest that of every 10,000 to 15,000 compounds tested during preclinical stages, only about five are considered safe for clinical trials and just one gains regulatory approval. 人口老龄化推动了对新药和治疗方法的需求，增加了疾病管理的复杂性。癌症、阿尔茨海默病和慢性病等疾病正变得越来越普遍，使本已漫长且昂贵的药物开发过程进一步复杂化，通常需要 10 到 15 年，成本超过数十亿美元。据估计，在临床前阶段测试的每 10,000 至 15,000 种化合物中，只有大约 5 种被认为可以安全地用于临床试验，只有一种获得监管部门的批准。
Disease complexity, stricter regulations and difficulties in patient recruitment have further extended development timelines, inflating research and development (R&D) costs. These delays also reduce the window of patent protection, which lasts 20 to 25 years in major markets such as the United States, Japan and China, giving companies less time to capitalise on their investments. 疾病的复杂性、更严格的法规和患者招募的困难进一步延长了开发时间，增加了研发 （R&D） 成本。这些延迟还缩短了专利保护的窗口期，在美国、日本和中国等主要市场，专利保护期为 20 至 25 年，使公司没有时间利用其投资。
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To offset these challenges, many pharmaceutical firms are turning to CROs and CDMOs. These partnerships can cut development time and significantly reduce R&D costs. Today, CROs and CDMOs are an essential part of new drug development and late-stage research. Particularly in China, where labour costs are lower, outsourcing has become a key strategy for managing rising costs and staying competitive. 为了应对这些挑战，许多制药公司正在转向 CRO 和 CDMO。这些伙伴关系可以减少开发时间并显著降低研发成本。如今，CRO 和 CDMO 已成为新药开发和后期研究的重要组成部分。特别是在劳动力成本较低的中国，外包已成为管理不断上涨的成本和保持竞争力的关键策略。
A survey released in May by the Biotechnology Innovation Organisation found that 79 per cent of responding US companies had at least one contract with China-based CROs or sourced products from China-based CDMOs. Unwinding these relationships could prove costly and time-consuming, potentially delaying the launch of new drugs and therapies. 生物技术创新组织 （Biotechnology Innovation Organisation） 5 月发布的一项调查发现，79% 的受访美国公司至少与中国的 CRO 签订了一份合同，或从中国的 CDMO 采购了产品。解除这些关系可能成本高昂且耗时，可能会延迟新药和疗法的推出。
Moreover, this decoupling could backfire, pushing China to accelerate its own indigenous innovation efforts. Beijing has already identified biotechnology as a strategic emerging industry in its “Made in China 2025” plan, with ambitious goals to increase its global market share. Since June 2021, China has witnessed a robust investment landscape in the biotech sector. 此外，这种脱钩可能会适得其反，促使中国加快本国创新的努力。北京已在其“中国制造 2025”计划中将生物技术确定为战略性新兴产业，并制定了提高其全球市场份额的雄心勃勃的目标。自 2021 年 6 月以来，中国见证了生物技术领域的强劲投资环境。
The investments span a range of healthcare areas, including AI drug development, vaccine research and medical device platforms. Such investments suggest strong confidence and interest in China’s biotech and healthcare industries despite an economic downturn that has weighed on biotech start-ups. 这些投资涵盖一系列医疗保健领域，包括 AI 药物开发、疫苗研究和医疗设备平台。此类投资表明，尽管经济低迷给生物技术初创企业带来了压力，但人们对中国的生物技术和医疗保健行业充满信心和兴趣。
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The biotech decoupling efforts come against the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the US-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement. This landmark pact, which has facilitated scientific collaboration between the two countries since 1979, expired at the end of August after a six-month extension failed to produce a breakthrough. 生物技术脱钩工作是在美中科技合作协议续签存在不确定性的背景下进行的。这项具有里程碑意义的协议自 1979 年以来一直促进两国之间的科学合作，在延长六个月未能取得突破后于 8 月底到期。
Attempts to negotiate a longer-term renewal have been marked by delays and complications. An article from Nature earlier this month suggested signs pointed to an eventual renewal, albeit with a more limited scope that restricts collaboration in competitive areas such as quantum computing, AI and advanced semiconductors. 谈判长期续约的尝试以延误和复杂化为标志。本月早些时候，《自然》杂志的一篇文章指出，有迹象表明最终会续约，尽管范围更加有限，限制了量子计算、人工智能和先进半导体等竞争领域的合作。
As the Biosecure Act moves to the Senate, the biotech industry is watching with bated breath. Will biotechnology be the latest battleground in the ongoing technological rivalry between the US and China? 随着《生物安全法案》提交参议院，生物技术行业正在屏息以待。生物技术会成为中美之间持续技术竞争的最新战场吗？
The outcome is likely to shape the future of global life sciences R&D. Whether this decoupling will enhance or hinder innovation in the long run remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the era of unfettered US-China collaboration in science and technology is coming to an end. Biotech decoupling reflects a broader trend of techno-nationalism, where countries increasingly view scientific and technological progress through the lens of national security and economic competitiveness. 结果可能会塑造全球生命科学研发的未来。从长远来看，这种脱钩是会促进还是阻碍创新还有待观察，但有一点是明确的：中美科技合作不受限制的时代即将结束。生物技术脱钩反映了更广泛的技术民族主义趋势，各国越来越多地从国家安全和经济竞争力的角度来看待科技进步。
Workers at a CT machine workshop at Neusoft Medical in Shenyang, northeast Liaoning province, on May 22. Firms manufacturing medical devices are an important part of China’s biotech sector. Photo: Xinhua 5 月 22 日，位于辽宁省东北省沈阳市的东软医疗 CT 机车间的工人。医疗器械制造公司是中国生物技术行业的重要组成部分。图片|新华社
For multinational pharmaceutical companies, navigating this new reality will require careful strategic planning. Some are already exploring ways to diversify their supply chains and research partnerships beyond China. However, completely abandoning the Chinese market is not a viable option for most firms. 对于跨国制药公司来说，驾驭这一新现实需要仔细的战略规划。一些公司已经在探索在中国以外的地方实现供应链和研究伙伴关系多元化的方法。然而，对于大多数公司来说，完全放弃中国市场并不是一个可行的选择。
The broader implications of this biotech decoupling extend beyond the immediate industry impacts. It signals a fundamental shift in the global scientific landscape, where geopolitical considerations increasingly shape research priorities and collaborations. This trend could potentially slow the pace of global scientific advancement, particularly in areas that require large-scale international cooperation. 这种生物技术脱钩的更广泛影响超出了对行业的直接影响。它标志着全球科学格局的根本性转变，地缘政治因素越来越多地影响着研究重点和合作。这一趋势可能会减缓全球科学进步的步伐，特别是在需要大规模国际合作的领域。
As the US and China increasingly view scientific and technological cooperation through a national security lens, the global research landscape risks becoming fragmented. With countries increasingly viewing technological leadership as a zero-sum game, the risk of a fragmented global innovation ecosystem is growing. 随着美国和中国越来越多地从国家安全的角度看待科技合作，全球研究格局有可能变得碎片化。随着各国越来越多地将技术领先地位视为零和游戏，全球创新生态系统碎片化的风险正在增加。
As policymakers grapple with these complex issues, striking a balance between national security concerns and the benefits of international scientific collaboration will be crucial. The outcome of this balancing act is likely to shape the future of global innovation and technological progress for decades to come. 在政策制定者努力解决这些复杂问题时，在国家安全问题和国际科学合作的好处之间取得平衡将至关重要。这种平衡之举的结果可能会塑造未来几十年全球创新和技术进步的未来。
Marina Yue Zhang is currently at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. She has experience in technological innovation in both business and academia. She is the author of three books, including Demystifying China’s Innovation Machine: Chaotic Order.
张玛丽娜（Marina Yue Zhang）目前在悉尼科技大学（University of Technology Sydney）的澳大利亚-中国关系研究所（Australia-China Relations Institute）工作。她在商业界和学术界都有技术创新的经验。她著有三本书，包括《揭开中国创新机器的神秘面纱：混沌秩序》（Demystifying China's Innovation Machine： Chaotic Order）。
