100+ Charts & Commentary on all major Markets — for your weekend reading.
100 多张图表及评论，涵盖所有主要市场——供您周末阅读。
“Don’t start the week without it”
“没有它，别开始新的一周”
Stocks moving towards a climax — are we there yet?
股票正走向高潮——我们到达了吗？
Looking through the evidence…
透过证据来看……
KEY TOPICS COVERED 涵盖的主要主题
One month ago: 一个月前：
In today’s report: 今日报告内容：
Stocks moving towards a climax — are we there yet?
股票正走向高潮——我们到达了吗？
Challenging every consensus view out there: “You ain't seen nothing yet”. Strap yourself in…
挑战所有共识观点：“你们还没见识到真正的风暴”。系好安全带……If we look in the right places, you can see a turning point in sentiment — but it’s NOT what everyone is thinking…
如果我们观察正确的地方，你可以看到情绪的转折点——但这并不是大家所想的那样……What’s the path of *maximum* pain? (continued)
*最大* 痛苦的路径是什么？（续）As always: focus on what stocks are doing — and let the *market* tell you what’s next.
一如既往：关注股票的表现——让*市场*告诉你下一步该怎么走。Updating signals for a *turning point*: what I’m watching closely to reduce exposure for the first time in this rally. One step ahead of the crowd, but not more than one step.
更新*转折点*信号：我正在密切关注的内容，以便在本轮反弹中首次减少敞口。领先大众一步，但不会超过一步。Adding scans & updating targets: assessing (1) model signals, (2) market behavior, (3) individual stocks.
添加扫描和更新目标：评估（1）模型信号，（2）市场行为，（3）个股表现。Scanning for weakness / SHORTS…
扫描疲软迹象 / 做空机会…
METALS — A classic extension unfolding?
金属——经典的延伸走势正在展开？
FX & RATES — Big macro shift potential (continued).
外汇与利率 — 重大宏观转变潜力（续）。
Dollar: a major opportunity — watching closely. (*Trend picture coming together.)
美元：一个重大机遇——密切关注。（*趋势图正在形成。）Bonds moving “on schedule” — another BIG inflection point?
债券按“计划”移动——又一个重大转折点？
Open Portfolio & Updated Plan
开放投资组合及更新计划
Emphasizing: an open mind could be the difference between a great summer and an average one. It’s a strong year and I intend to keep pushing — eyes on the next big move.
强调：开放的心态可能是成就一个伟大夏天与平庸夏天的关键。今年形势强劲，我打算继续努力——目光锁定下一次重大变动。
CORE MODELS & DATA 核心模型与数据
STOCKS 股票
ETF Investors are finally back — with plenty of room to chase higher.
ETF 投资者终于回归——有充足空间追逐更高收益。
*My UPDATED base case is that flows will soon ACCELERATE —for all the key reasons previously discussed— **look for a full update on this in Section 2.
*我更新后的基本判断是，资金流动很快将加速——基于之前讨论的所有关键原因——**详见第二部分的完整更新。
What is the path of maximum pain? As before, if history is a guide the market should grind higher over time, leaving sellers behind. Pullbacks could be limited in scope. This framework continues to be validated by the market.
最大痛点路径是什么？如前所述，如果历史可以作为参考，市场应随着时间推移稳步上升，抛售者将被甩在后面。回调可能范围有限。市场持续验证这一框架。
Institutions remain *heavily* underinvested —this is yet another potential major driving force in our *base case* bullish scenario— (“strap yourself in”):
机构仍然*严重*低配——这又是我们*基本情景*看涨假设中的一个潜在主要推动力——（“系好安全带”）：
Core Risk Models continue to work off the overbought condition even as Stocks extend higher.
核心风险模型在股票继续上涨的同时，仍在消化超买状态。
*As discussed on May 24, historically strong bullish factors led to the model consolidating sideways, rather than an immediate large correction.
*正如 5 月 24 日所讨论的，历史上强劲的看涨因素导致模型横盘整合，而非立即出现大幅回调。
*This framework continues to be validated by the market, and remains my base case for now.
*这一框架持续得到市场验证，目前仍是我的基本情景。
We continue to track this closely for an ideal top into late summer:
我们将继续密切关注这一点，以期在夏末形成理想的顶部：
As discussed May 24: 如 5 月 24 日所述：
“If the sequence continues, dips should remain shallow for the next few weeks, with the market in a SLIGHT upward bias. Overall, a *perfect environment* for stock-picking. *Also: not yet an optimal setup to Short Indexes or buy Volatility.”
“如果这一趋势持续，未来几周的回调应保持浅度，市场将呈现轻微的上行偏好。总体而言，这是一个*完美的选股环境*。*此外：目前尚未达到做空指数或买入波动率的最佳时机。*”
*This framework continues to be validated by the market, and remains my base case for now.
*这一框架持续得到市场验证，目前仍是我的基本判断。*
As always: an open mind could be the difference between a great summer and an average one. It’s a strong year and I intend to keep pushing — eyes open to the next big move.
一如既往：保持开放的心态可能是成就一个出色夏天与平庸夏天的关键。今年形势强劲，我打算继续努力——时刻关注下一次重大行情。
Trend Oscillator is unwinding: signaling the trend becoming more gradual (*the 2016/2019 base case) in our view. Continue to think the risk of a large correction remains relatively low at this time.
趋势振荡器正在回调：在我们看来，这表明趋势变得更加缓和（*2016/2019 年的基本情况）。我们继续认为，目前大幅调整的风险仍然相对较低。
Master Options Flow Model is in topping range: as discussed on May 24, reiterate the expectation here is for the market to advance more gradually / bleed premium:
主力期权流模型处于顶部区间：如 5 月 24 日所述，重申预期市场将更为缓慢上涨/溢价逐步消退：
High-Low Oscillator remains “on schedule” as discussed in recent reports — with room to extend higher into ideal overbought range. (*See updated Table below)
高低振荡器保持“按计划”运行，如近期报告中所述——有空间进一步上升至理想的超买区间。（*见下方更新表格）
Still think most (or all) of the red box could make new highs before a bigger correction is seen.
仍然认为红色框内的大部分（或全部）区域可能在出现更大调整之前创出新高。
*Prepare for speculation and more importantly FLOWS to ramp up aggressively as new highs accumulate (*full discussion in SECTION 2):
*准备好迎接投机，更重要的是资金流将随着新高的积累而激增（详见第 2 节完整讨论）：
“Pedal to the metal” (strap yourself in)…
“全力以赴”（系好安全带）……
MACD Profile remains on Tactical Sell for the S&P — but NDX has repaired itself and flipped back to a Buy… this is more evidence of a melt-up scenario unfolding:
标普的 MACD 指标仍处于战术卖出状态——但纳斯达克指数已修复并重新转为买入……这进一步证明了暴涨行情正在展开：
MACD Sell Signals are spiking — but as before, trend context remains essential. Large corrections are less likely under these circumstances.
MACD 卖出信号激增——但如以往一样，趋势背景仍然至关重要。在这种情况下，大幅调整的可能性较小。
For reference: here is another look at 2016 / 2019 — note when the first spike triggered. *If repeated, the pattern points to a top in late July / early August — the same time frame we continue tracking with interest — and could *likely* see another round of Core Model Sell signals to help identify the summer top:
供参考：这里是 2016 年/2019 年的另一个视角——请注意首次激增的触发时间。如果重复出现，该模式指向 7 月底/8 月初的顶部——这是我们持续关注的时间段——并且很可能会看到另一轮核心模型卖出信号，以帮助识别夏季顶部：
Stocks with a Bullish Cross are turning UP after resetting back to neutral — this is Bullish and sets up a potential extension, with some recent examples shown below:
具有看涨交叉的股票在回归中性后正在上升——这是看涨信号，并为潜在的延续奠定了基础，以下是一些近期的例子：
Long-term Breadth shows the Bull Market slowly recovering its strength:
长期广度显示牛市正在缓慢恢复其强度：
Intermediate Breadth remains constructive at the high end of the range:
中期广度在区间高端保持建设性：
Short-Term Breadth continues to unwind, and is almost back to neutral:
短期广度指标持续回落，几乎回到中性水平：
Summation Index is on the cusp of triggering a NEW Buy signal — this remains classic Bull Market action:
综述指数正处于触发新的买入信号的边缘——这仍然是典型的牛市行为：
CTA Equity Trend positioning is still rising and not extended yet:
Option Skews aren’t stretched, considering S&P is nearly back to its all-time high — overall the odds of a major top remain low:
考虑到标普指数几乎回到了历史最高点，期权偏斜并未过度拉伸——总体来看，出现重大顶部的概率仍然较低：
Stock Market Sentiment could go *much higher* from here if a summer melt-up is unfolding (base case):
如果夏季行情正在展开（基本假设），股市情绪还有可能从这里大幅上升：
VIX Sentiment is way too high relative to VIX, which is now in “full-melt” mode. VIX Sentiment should be *at least* 15-20 points lower here — and still has room to reach low teens, as we’ve been leaning for weeks. My targets remain much lower:
相较于当前处于“全面融化”模式的 VIX，VIX 情绪过高。VIX 情绪在这里至少应比现在低 15-20 点——并且仍有空间降至低十几点，正如我们数周来所预期的。我的目标仍然远低于此：
VIX continues to display classic Bull Market behavior.
On track to ideal target (low/mid teens) for late summer:
DOLLAR 美元
The Dollar remains at a critical juncture:
美元仍处于关键时刻：
CTA Dollar Trend positioning is almost fully oversold again:
CTA 美元趋势仓位几乎再次完全超卖：
Dollar Sentiment remains the potential missing link for capitulation:
1. Sentiment made *yet another* new low this week, even though DXY is HIGHER than April.
2. At this rate even if the Dollar drops a mere 1-2% sentiment would likely capitulate.
3. This would *perfectly* match our double-bottom scenario at major chart support (see chart later in this section).
Dollar Net Short Positioning was reduced slightly this week, and remains quite negative:
A small drop may be enough to produce another big oversold signal — and complete the bottoming structure:
小幅下跌可能足以产生另一个重大超卖信号——并完成筑底结构：
RATES
CTA Rates Trend positioning continues moving to higher Bond yields:
Bond Sentiment still shows a clear turn down — base case remains a test of range lows:
债券情绪仍显示明显转向下行——基本预期仍是测试区间低点：
TLT buyers remain vulnerable to disappointment after another round of aggressive buying — a recurring pattern with mostly negative results since 2021 (curiously, this behavior never occurred before 2021).
TLT 买家在经历另一轮激进买入后仍易遭受失望——自 2021 年以来这一反复出现的模式大多带来负面结果（奇怪的是，这种行为在 2021 年之前从未出现过）。
PRECIOUS METALS 贵金属
CTA Gold Trend positioning is attempting to roll up from a minor dip:
CTA 黄金趋势仓位正试图从小幅下跌中回升：
Gold’s bigger picture continues to raise some concern — monitoring:
黄金的大趋势仍然令人担忧——持续关注中：
Gold Sentiment remains stuck in a range — not much of a signal either way:
黄金情绪仍然停留在区间内——没有明显的方向信号：
Silver Sentiment is climbing rapidly (as it should be) — and MAY become a tactical concern IF it gets above 90 in the next few weeks. *We’ll send an update to Subscribers in a Post/Thread as this develops.
白银情绪正在迅速上升（理应如此）——如果未来几周内超过 90，可能会成为战术性关注点。*随着情况发展，我们将通过帖子/线程向订阅者发送更新。
*For new subscribers, three charts showing “how we got here”:
*对于新订阅者，三张图表展示了“我们是如何走到这一步的”：
Gold turned down in April from a historic overbought signal. Previous peaks led to negative 3-6 month performance:
黄金在四月从历史性的超买信号中回落。此前的高点均导致了未来 3-6 个月的负面表现：
Global Gold ETF Flows turned down from record levels — in the past, buying spikes & exhaustion led to some big tops.
From April 23 update: at the April 22 high of $3500, Gold was almost 30% above its 200dma (horizontal blue line) — matching some big blow-offs in history.
KEY TECHNICAL CHARTS 关键技术图表
A QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT (CONTINUED)
定性评估（续）
On April 30 in “What’s Next For Stocks?”, I wrote:
4 月 30 日，在《股票的下一步是什么？》中，我写道：
In a Bull *or* Bear Market rally, the market rewards disciplined, patient investors that look for strong risk/reward setups (Long the leaders on the way up *and* Short the laggards when rally participation shows exhaustion).
在牛市*或*熊市反弹中，市场奖励那些有纪律、有耐心、寻找强劲风险/回报配置的投资者（在上涨过程中做多领先股*并且*在反弹参与度显示疲软时做空落后股）。Quality names tend to lead the initial rally, while investors continue to doubt how far the rally can go. (*There are many strong setups currently as discussed — and evidence continues to build in this direction.)
优质股票往往引领初期反弹，而投资者仍然怀疑反弹能走多远。（*正如之前讨论的，目前有许多强劲的配置机会——且证据持续朝这个方向积累。）But inevitably, at some point in every rally, the wall of worry finally crumbles and even the garbage gets bought.
但不可避免的是，在每一次反弹的某个时刻，担忧之墙最终会崩溃，甚至连垃圾股也会被买入。This extreme risk-seeking behavior is fueled by two forces: performance-chasing, and general FOMO taking over.
这种极端的风险偏好行为由两股力量推动：追逐业绩和普遍的害怕错过（FOMO）。In other words: all stock rallies typically end the same way: (1) Looking around today, quantitatively and qualitatively I don’t think we’re quite there yet. (2) I also think it will be a much different market picture in a few weeks’ time.
换句话说：所有的股票反弹通常以相同的方式结束：（1）从今天的定量和定性来看，我认为我们还没有到那个阶段。（2）我也认为几周后市场的情况会大不相同。
Stocks moving towards a climax — are we there yet?
股票正走向高潮——我们到达了吗？
(1) Challenging every consensus view out there: “You ain't seen nothing yet”. Strap yourself in…
(1) 挑战所有共识观点：“你们还没见识到真正的行情”。系好安全带……
(2) If we look in the right places, you can see a turning point in sentiment — but it’s NOT what everyone is thinking…
（2）如果我们观察正确的地方，你会看到情绪的转折点——但这并不是大家所想的那样……
Here’s what I see: 这是我所看到的：
Extreme High-Beta *starting* to move (✅check), High Short-interest moving (✅check), Low-Quality moving (✅check), plus some *early* evidence of “bottom-of-the-barrel” going as well (✅check).
More speculative names which are getting attention:
Looking through the stack, you can see the early stages of an acceleration in sentiment — which eventually looks headed to pure & uncontrolled speculation…
So: how much more is there?
Well, many charts have room to go vertical… that’s just what they do when real speculation kicks in.
And it’s important to note that TRASH stocks are not trading “FULL TILT” yet (⬜pending). One of those things which takes time… but you’ll DEFINITELY know it when you see it. We’re not there yet — but stay tuned.
As always: focus on what stocks are doing — and let the *market* tell you what’s next:
Stocks closed at the high of the week (again).
Sectors & Groups which led: #1 Semiconductors, #2 Biotech, #3 Comm Services, #4 Russell, #5 Technology.
Difficult to build a top while these areas continue to lead the market AND *move in synch*.
Uptrends remain intact, with no bearish reversals in any major Index.
VIX and Credit Spreads continue trending DOWN.
Max pain scenario remains: low-volatility grind to new summer highs.
Meanwhile: 与此同时：
Barron’s: “The S&P Just Hit 6000. Start Worrying.”
巴伦周刊：“标普指数刚刚突破 6000 点。开始担忧吧。”
Updated Stocks Scan: 更新的股票扫描：
Through the end of May 2025, the average stock in our Core Watchlist is up +40%, with a few almost doubling — a strong outperformance relative to the market.
截至 2025 年 5 月底，我们核心观察名单中的平均股票上涨了 40%，其中有几只几乎翻倍——相较于市场表现出强劲的超额收益。
As before, focused on: Stocks meeting strict criteria for (1) relative strength, (2) improving momentum, (3) defined risk. We’ll keep building on this list as signals develop.
和之前一样，重点关注符合以下严格标准的股票：（1）相对强势，（2）动能改善，（3）风险明确。随着信号的发展，我们将继续完善这份名单。
SCAN: S&P, NDX, Consumer Discretionary, Semiconductors, Speculative/High-Beta.
扫描范围：S&P、NDX、非必需消费品、半导体、投机性/高贝塔股票。
Many new names this week — and they’re getting snapped "up and out" to join the advance. Meanwhile true leaders still motoring higher with no pullbacks. Still a lot of opportunity on the radar:
本周出现了许多新面孔——它们正被迅速“买入并卖出”，以加入上涨行列。与此同时，真正的领头羊仍在持续上涨，未见回调。雷达上仍有大量机会：
RATES 利率
Bonds moving “on schedule” — another BIG inflection point?
债券按“计划”移动——又一个重大转折点？
CURRENCIES 货币
The Dollar is at a critical moment where it needs to decide if the bottom is complete, or if the trend remains lower.
美元正处于一个关键时刻，需要决定底部是否已经形成，或者趋势是否仍将下行。
My base case is that the trend remains lower.
我的基本判断是趋势仍将下行。On the other side of this, think there’s a major Long USD opportunity setting up — so don’t want to lose sight of the big picture.
另一方面，我认为正在形成一个重大做多美元的机会——所以不想忽视大局。Paying close attention to how these moves develop over the next few weeks, and if divergences begin to form.
密切关注未来几周这些走势的发展，以及是否开始出现背离。
Remain focused on the Big Four and looking to get aggressive:
继续关注四大行，并准备采取积极行动：
OIL & ENERGY 石油与能源
This week’s failure to break down on bad news was important (and short-term bullish):
本周未因利空消息而下跌，这一点很重要（短期看涨）：
Energy still struggling at resistance, watching for Short entry & will update in a Thread/Post. As before: has to be a compelling and tight/asymmetric setup, otherwise pass.
能源板块仍在阻力位挣扎，关注做空机会，后续将在帖子/推文中更新。如前所述：必须是一个有说服力且紧凑/非对称的交易设置，否则放弃。
METALS 金属
BITCOIN 比特币
Remains my #1 area of interest.
仍然是我最感兴趣的领域。
*Tracking our pullback scenario with *high priority* — bottom MAY already be in:
*高度关注我们的回调情景* — 五月底部可能已经形成：
Continue to think Bitcoin could be the true leader (and has been since April):
继续认为比特币可能是真正的领头羊（自四月以来一直如此）：
Tracking pullback scenario:
追踪回调情景：
Have a great weekend. 周末愉快。
Thanks for reading. 感谢阅读。
Onwards and upwards, -MC 继续前进，蒸蒸日上，-MC
*If you enjoyed this report, likes are much appreciated…
*如果您喜欢本报告，欢迎点赞支持……
