The AI War 人工智能战争
The next era of war and deterrence will be defined by AI. The AI winner of this decade will be economically and militarily dominant for the next 50 years. The faster that we confront this reality, the faster we can act in ensuring America does not lose.
下一个战争和威慑时代将由人工智能定义。本十年人工智能的胜者将在未来 50 年内在经济和军事上占主导地位。我们越快直面这一现实,我们就越能行动,确保美国不会失去主导地位。
The gist of this post is:
这篇文章的要点是:
AI will disrupt warfare. 人工智能将颠覆战争。
China is currently outpacing the United States (for which there are numerous supporting facts).
中国目前正在超越美国(有许多支持这一事实的依据)。The United States, both the government and AI technologists, need to start acting.
美国政府和人工智能技术专家都需要开始行动。
The AI War is at the core of the future of our world. Will authoritarianism prevail over democracy? Do we want to find out?
人工智能战争是我们世界未来的核心。专制主义会战胜民主主义吗?我们想知道吗?
The Ukraine war is already demonstrating that the tech stack for war has changed. Technologies including drones, AI-based targeting and imagery intelligence, and Javelin missiles have allowed for a shocking defense of Ukraine against Russia, despite their nearly $300B in defense spending over the past 5 years.
乌克兰战争已经显示战争的技术堆栈发生了改变。包括无人机、基于人工智能的瞄准和图像情报,以及标枪导弹在内的技术,尽管俄罗斯过去五年的国防开支接近 3000 亿美元,但仍使乌克兰能够展现出令人震惊的防御能力。
The future is clear—AI-powered targeting and autonomous drones will define warfare. AI applied to satellite imagery and other sensor data has already enabled targeting and tracking of Russian troops and generals. Our legacy military platforms, while still important, will be disrupted by cheaper autonomous drone fleets. Aircraft carriers are giant targets in the sea compared to autonomous, adaptive drone swarms.
未来一目了然——人工智能驱动的精确打击和自主无人机将界定未来战争。人工智能应用于卫星影像和其他传感器数据已经使俄罗斯部队和将军的目标锁定和追踪成为可能。我们传统的军事平台虽然仍然重要,但将受到更便宜的自主无人机编队的颠覆。相比于自适应的无人机群,航空母舰在海上是巨大的目标。
We are in the midst of a renaissance of AI in the commercial sector. In the past few years, breakthroughs have enabled AI systems to generate imagery, text, code, and even reason. The pace of AI research is following its own Moore’s law—every 2 years, the number of AI papers published per month doubles. As venture capitalists ogle over the potential of Generative AI to change knowledge work, we are not addressing the obvious application of AI towards military power, and the very clear risks that America will be outpaced.
我们正处于商业领域 AI 复兴的中期。在过去几年里,突破性进展使得 AI 系统能够生成图像、文本、代码甚至进行推理。AI 研究的步伐正在遵循自己的摩尔定律 - 每隔 2 年,每月发表的 AI 论文数量就会翻一番。当风险投资者着迷于生成式 AI 对知识工作的改变潜力时,我们并未解决 AI 应用于军事力量的明显问题,以及美国被甩在后面的非常明确的风险。
A recent AI system, CICERO, achieved human-level performance in Diplomacy, a strategy game requiring negotiation and manipulation of other human players. This result, along with dominance of AI in chess, go, and poker, paint a precursor to the future of war. An AI warfighter will handily dominate an adversary through strategic brilliance, faster decision-making, and greater situational awareness. What’s more, autonomous drone fleets (air, sea, and land) will tactically outcompete human operators in velocity and coordination. While this hasn’t happened yet, it is only a matter of time. Based on the pace of progress with AI technology today, I believe this is less than 10 years away.
一个最近的 AI 系统 CICERO 在外交这款需要谈判和操纵其他玩家的策略游戏中达到了人类水平的表现。这一结果,连同 AI 在国际象棋、围棋和扑克中的主导地位,预示着未来战争的曙光。一个 AI 战士将凭借战略智慧、更快的决策和更强的情况意识轻松战胜对手。此外,自主无人机编队(空中、海上和陆地)将在速度和协调方面战胜人类操作员。虽然目前还没有发生,但这只是时间问题。根据当前 AI 技术的发展速度,我认为这将在 10 年内实现。
All that will matter in a future conflict is our technology—AI will devise, execute, and update our combat strategy. Our technology is our strategy.
未来冲突中唯一重要的将是我们的技术—人工智能将制定、执行并更新我们的作战策略。我们的技术就是我们的策略。
There is precedent for technological disruption of warfare. I grew up in Los Alamos, New Mexico, the birthplace of the atomic bomb. The development of nuclear weapons in 1942 ushered in a new era of the nature of war and deterrence, and is one of the largest contributors to the Pax Americana, the unprecedented relative peace in the world since the end of World War II.
有先例可证科技对战争的颠覆性影响。我在新墨西哥州洛斯阿拉莫斯长大,那里是原子弹的发祥地。1942 年核武器的研发开启了战争和遏制的新时代,也是维护美国主导地位的和平局势(Pax Americana)出现的重要因素之一,这种局势一直持续至二战结束后的前所未有的相对和平时期。
The continuation of Pax Americana rests upon our ability to navigate and maintain the lead in the AI race, which in turn will ensure the military and economic leadership of America. The facts today on our relative standing against China are not good, and need to be confronted head-on. We will not win by standing still.
美国和平统治的延续依赖于我们能够引导和保持在人工智能竞赛中的领先地位,这反过来将确保美国的军事和经济领导地位。今天我们与中国相对地位的事实并不乐观,需要正视。我们不会因保持原地而获胜。
The China Threat 中国威胁论
China deeply understands the potential for AI to disrupt warfare and ultimately overtake the USA, and is investing heavily to capitalize on the opportunity. Let’s walk through some facts.
中国深刻理解人工智能将颠覆战争并最终超越美国的潜力,正大幅投资以把握这一机遇。让我们来看看一些事实。
Fact 1: China considers AI as a “historic opportunity” for “leapfrog development” of national security technology, per China’s 2017 National AI Development Plan.
事实 1:根据中国 2017 年国家人工智能发展规划,中国将人工智能视为实现国家安全技术"跨越发展"的"历史性机遇"。
Their belief is AI will rhyme with how China surpassed America in fintech, where the American mature existing financial services industry and regulations ultimately enabled China to race ahead with a more digital and AI-enabled fintech stack.
他们的观点是,人工智能将与中国超越美国在金融科技领域的方式产生共鸣,其中,美国成熟的现有金融服务行业和法规最终使中国能够以更数字化和人工智能驱动的金融科技体系快速前进。
More specifically, they believe that the United States will fall into a classic Innovator’s Dilemma. We will over-invest in mature systems and platforms, and underinvest in new disruptive technologies such as AI that would make our mature systems vulnerable or obsolete. Meanwhile, China, less encumbered by an existing defense industrial base, will race far ahead on AI.
更具体地说,他们相信美国将陷入典型的创新者困境。我们将过度投资于成熟的系统和平台,而对新的颠覆性技术(如人工智能)的投资不足,这会使我们的成熟系统容易受到攻击或过时。与此同时,中国不受现有国防工业基础的障碍,将在人工智能方面遥遥领先。
Their long-term vision for how AI will disrupt the battlefield is also clear, and they are investing to accomplish it. As one Chinese official has said1:
他们对于人工智能如何颠覆战场的长远愿景也很清晰,并正在投资以实现这一目标。正如一位中国官员所说:
“In future battlegrounds there will be no people fighting. By 2025 lethal autonomous weapons [will] be commmonplace and ever-increasing military use of AI is inevitable. We are sure about the direction and that is the future…
在未来的战场上将不会有人在战斗。到 2025 年,致命的自主武器将成为普遍,军事人工智能的使用也将不可避免。我们对这个方向确信无疑,这就是未来。
Mechanized equipment is just like the hand of the human body. In future intelligent wars, AI systems will be just like the brain of the human body. AI may completely change the current command structure, which is dominated by humans to one that is dominated by an ‘AI cluster.’”
机械化设备就像人体的手。在未来的智能战争中,AI 系统将像人体的大脑。AI 可能会彻底改变目前由人类主导的指挥结构,转变为由"AI 集群"主导的结构。
Fact 2: This is already happening—China is outspending the United States on AI technology for defense, both in absolute terms and proportionally.
事实 2:这已经在发生了——中国在 AI 国防技术方面的支出超过了美国,无论是绝对金额还是相对比重。
China’s military arm, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), spent between $1.6B and $2.7B on AI against an overall defense budget of $178B in 20202, whereas the US Department of Defense (DoD) spent only between $800M and $1.3B on AI against an overall DoD budget of $693B over the same period3.
中国军事部门中国人民解放军(PLA)在 2020 年用于人工智能的开支为 16 亿到 27 亿美元,而总国防预算为 1780 亿美元 2,而美国国防部(DoD)在同期仅用于人工智能的开支为 8 亿到 13 亿美元,而总国防预算为 6930 亿美元 3。
China is spending between 1% and 1.5% of their military budget on AI while the United States is spending between 0.1% and 0.2%. Adjusted for the total military budget, China is spending 10x more than the United States.
中国在人工智能方面的军事预算投入占其总军事预算的 1%到 1.5%之间,而美国的投入则占 0.1%到 0.2%之间。考虑到总军事预算规模,中国在人工智能方面的投入比美国高出 10 倍。
Fact 3: This is against a backdrop that in many DC wargames of the past few years, China wins.
事实 3: 这是在过去几年 DC 战争游戏中,中国取得胜利的背景下。
The quotes are damning:
这些评论非常有力:
“The United States gets its ass handed to it”
美国被彻底击败了“We are going to lose fast”
我们将很快失败“China ran rings around us… they knew exactly what we were going to do before we did it”
中国完全掌控了我们的一举一动...他们知道我们将要做什么,甚至比我们自己还要清楚
And this isn’t even because of AI—it’s due to China’s already advanced intelligence, cyber, and electronic warfare capabilities, and an American hardware portfolio of fighter aircrafts and aircraft carriers that are mismatched to a conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. As a spoiler, these problems do not get better with AI.
这不仅仅是因为人工智能,而是由于中国已经非常先进的情报、网络和电子战能力,以及美国的战斗机和航空母舰组合与印太地区冲突的要求并不匹配。作为提示,这些问题并不会因为人工智能而变好。
Fact 4: From a pure technological standpoint, China has already surpassed the United States in computer vision AI, and is a fast follower on large language models (LLMs).
事实 4:从纯粹的技术角度来看,中国已经超越了美国在计算机视觉 AI 方面,并且在大型语言模型方面也是快速追赶者。
China is showing that in tactical AI capabilities, such as computer vision for greater sensing and awareness, they are handily ahead. And while America currently leads on more strategic AI systems, such as LLMs which will underpin future command-and-control systems, China is at most 1 year behind.
中国正展示他们在战术人工智能能力方面,如增强感知和意识的计算机视觉,拥有显著优势。虽然美国目前在更为战略性的人工智能系统(如将为未来指挥控制系统奠定基础的LLMs)方面处于领先地位,但中国最多落后 1 年。
The current top 5 algorithms on the global leaderboard for image recognition on COCO (the established benchmark) all come from Chinese companies and universities.4
在 COCO(公认的基准)的全球排行榜上,当前前 5 名算法全部来自中国企业和大学。
In a global 2022 challenge on aerial imagery object detection in haze, one of the most blatant military applications of computer vision technology (battlefield object detection), the first, second, fourth, and fifth place winners were all Chinese companies or universities, with the sole foreign challenger being a Korean University.
在 2022 年全球范围内的一项关于雾霾环境下航空影像目标检测的挑战赛中,这是计算机视觉技术最明显的军事应用(战场目标检测),前五名获奖者均为中国公司或高校,唯一的外国参与者是韩国一所大学。
And in large language models (LLMs), which are the current state-of-the-art in natural language understanding and reasoning, they are fast followers to the leading American company OpenAI. The Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence (BAAI) and Tsingua University released a bilingual English & Chinese model GLM-130B in August of 2022 that outperforms GPT-3 175B, the leading American model. Now, OpenAI has been improving their technology for an upcoming release, but regardless the Chinese firms are within 1 year of the United States.
在大型语言模型(LLMs)中,它们是当前自然语言理解和推理领域的先进技术,是美国公司 OpenAI 的快速追随者。北京人工智能学院(BAAI)和清华大学在 2022 年 8 月发布了双语英语和中文模型 GLM-130B,它优于领先的美国模型 GPT-3 175B。现在,OpenAI 一直在改进其技术以进行即将发布的产品,但不管怎样,中国公司都在美国的 1 年内。
Fact 5: China has also been shown to heavily use social media manipulation and disinformation in Taiwan, particularly during elections.
事实 5:中国也被发现在台湾大规模使用社交媒体操纵和虚假信息传播,尤其是在选举期间。
They will show no mercy in using modern generative AI of both text and imagery to massively amplify their ability to sow division within the country and discredit US military activities. Below, I used GPT-3 to generate a fake article about the United States renouncing support of Taiwan. As you can see, the technology is incredibly effective.
他们将无情地利用现代的文本和图像生成人工智能,大幅增强他们在国内制造分裂和贬低美国军事活动的能力。下面,我使用 GPT-3 生成了一篇有关美国放弃对台湾支持的虚假文章。正如你所看到的,这项技术非常有效。
Fact 6: China has already shown willingness to implement AI ruthlessly for government purposes, most notably in facial recognition for Uyghur suppression.
事实 6:中国已经表现出有意无情地利用 AI 用于政府目的,最引人注目的是在维吾尔人镇压中使用人脸识别。
China has developed an ecosystem of AI startups (Yitu, SenseTime, Megvii, and CloudWalk) which developed algorithms to track Uyghurs in Xinjiang. While bone-chilling, it is not hard to draw the line from their development of facial recognition AI to China leapfrogging the US in military AI technology, and using that technology to further its authoritarian regime.
中国已经开发了一个人工智能初创企业生态系统(亿图、商汤科技、旷视科技和科大讯飞),它们开发了用于跟踪新疆维吾尔人的算法。虽然令人毛骨悚然,但从它们开发面部识别人工智能到中国在军事人工智能技术方面超过美国,并利用该技术来强化其专制政权,这一点并不难看出。
Fact 7: Perhaps the greatest concern is the time pressure in this race imposed by the potential invasion of Taiwan in the next 5 years.
事实 7:最大的担忧可能是这场竞争面临的时间压力,因为台湾可能在未来 5 年内遭到入侵。
There is a high risk of a Taiwanese invasion within the next 5 years, and it could even be as soon as 2023 according to the US Chief of Naval Operations, Michael Gilday.
根据美国海军作战部长迈克尔·吉尔德的说法,台湾在未来 5 年内遭受入侵的高风险,甚至可能在 2023 年发生。
An invasion of Taiwan would force our hands—we would need to fight with whatever military capability we have at the time, and we do not want to be caught flat-footed on AI.
入侵台湾将迫使我们采取行动 - 我们需要利用当时的一切军事能力来应战,我们不希望在人工智能问题上措手不及。
How to Win It: AI Overmatch
如何战胜它:人工智能的压倒性优势
The United States needs to change our trajectory on AI for defense. We are falling behind on AI, and with it losing American leadership.
美国需要改变我们在国防 AI 方面的方向。我们在 AI 方面正在落后,随之也失去了美国的领导地位。
I propose a strategy for AI Overmatch to ensure that we have an overwhelming advantage on AI. What follows are some clear recommendations for quickly increasing our pace and winning. To those new to the topic of the AI War, these recommendations might seem overly specific—that is intentional. Surgical action is needed to reignite our engines.
我提出了一项人工智能超越战略,以确保我们在人工智能方面拥有压倒性的优势。以下是我们快速增加步伐并取得胜利的一些明确建议。对于那些对人工智能战争这个话题不太了解的人来说,这些建议可能会显得过于具体—这是有意为之的。我们需要采取精准的行动来重新点燃我们的引擎。
We must recognize that our current operating model will result in ruin. Continuing on our trajectory for the next 10 years could result in us falling irrecoverably far behind. Why do large organizations often continue on the path to their demise, even if the future is painfully obvious? The reason is inertia—bureaucracies will continue to glide deep into the abyss for an eternity.
我们必须认识到我们目前的运营模式将导致毁灭。在未来 10 年内沿着现有轨迹发展可能导致我们难以挽回地落后。为什么大型组织经常继续走向衰落的道路,即使未来是痛苦明显的?原因是惯性 - 官僚体系将永远滑入深渊。
Recommendation 1: Data supremacy is an absolute requirement for the AI war.
建议 1:数据至上是人工智能战争的绝对要求。
Tactically speaking, AI always boils down to data. Every instantiation of deep learning has been ridiculously data-hungry, and recent results show that even large language models, which are often trained on most of the internet, are data-starved (Chinchilla scaling).
从战术角度来看,人工智能归根结底都是数据。每一次深度学习的实现都需要大量的数据,最近的结果显示即使是训练于大部分互联网内容的大型语言模型,也存在数据匮乏的问题(Chinchilla 缩放)。
The success of an AI modernization is dependent on building and maintaining data supremacy. If you observe how the tech giants (Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.) maintain their algorithmic leads versus their competitors, it all stems from runaway data advantages.
人工智能现代化的成功取决于建立和维持数据优势。如果您观察科技巨头(谷歌、Facebook、亚马逊等)如何维持在算法方面的领先优势,这都源于其在数据方面的压倒性优势。
For defense AI, the internet is not enough. Most will need to come through our military assets and sensors. America has by far the largest fleet of military hardware. If we can successfully turn this platform advantage into a data advantage through an investment into data infrastructure and data preparation, we can get ahead and stay ahead.
对于防御人工智能,互联网是远远不够的。大多数需求将通过我们的军事资产和传感器得到满足。美国拥有最庞大的军事硬件车队。如果我们能够通过投资数据基础设施和数据准备工作,将这种平台优势转化为数据优势,我们就能够领先并保持领先地位。
It’s important to call out—we are not ahead today. Most of the data within the military gets thrown away, or lives on hard drives that will never see the light of day. The scale of our military fleet is currently not contributing to data supremacy.
重要的是提出来 - 我们现在并没有领先。军方的大部分数据被丢弃了,或者存储在永远不会被人看到的硬盘上。我们现有的军事舰队规模目前并没有为数据至高无上地位做出贡献。
In May 2021, the Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks released a memorandum for the DoD to create a data advantage, kicking off the creation of the Chief Digital and AI Office (CDAO). That is only a start to a Herculean, yet critical effort. We either will build data supremacy, or we will invariably lose in the long-run.
在 2021 年 5 月,国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯发布了一份备忘录,要求国防部创造数据优势,启动了首席数字和人工智能办公室(CDAO)的成立。这只是一项艰巨且关键的努力的开始。我们要么建立数据霸权,要么在长期内不可避免地失败。
Recommendation 2: AI-enabled capabilities will be 10x more lethal and effective in a decade. We need to have a 10-year plan to shift 25% of the DoD budget towards AI-enabled capabilities by 2032.
建议 2:在 10 年内,人工智能驱动的能力将比现有提高 10 倍,更致命和有效。我们需要制定 10 年计划,到 2032 年将国防部门预算的 25%转移到人工智能驱动的能力上。
We need to match China’s ability to plan on long, 10-year time horizons. It’s imperative that we begin charting a long-term path towards dominance in defense AI.
我们需要匹配中国在 10 年长期规划方面的能力。我们必须开始制定一条通往防御人工智能主导地位的长期道路。
Given any existing military capability, it will be more lethal, effective, and efficient if enabled with AI and autonomy. As the technology improves, it is not an exaggeration to say that AI will enable 10x gains. Some simple examples:
给定任何现有的军事能力,如果启用人工智能和自主性,它将更加致命、有效和高效。随着技术的进步,说人工智能将实现 10 倍的增益并不为过。一些简单的例子:
A fully autonomous drone swarm will be nearly impossible to subdue or disarm, and doggedly pursue any objective it is given. As we’ve seen in Ukraine, an effective drone can neutralize nearly any adversary—and a dominant AI agent will be able to outmaneuver even an AI-enabled foe.
一个完全自主的无人机群将几乎难以压制或缴械,并顽强地追求任何给定的目标。正如我们在乌克兰所看到的,一架有效的无人机可以中和几乎任何对手,而一个主导的 AI 代理将能够胜过即使是一个受 AI 支持的对手。AI-enabled intelligence and automated target recognition will limit the fog of war. We will be able to immediately identify targets and neutralize them faster than any adversarial human could react. As Sun Tzu once said, “Know your enemy, know yourself, and in one hundred battles, you will never be in peril.”
人工智能驱动的智能和自动目标识别将减少战争迷雾。我们将能够立即识别目标并比任何对手都更快地中和它们。正如孙子所说:"知己知彼,百战不殆。"
By the end of the decade, any military capability that is not AI-enabled will be rendered nearly useless against an AI-enabled adversary, just as Russia’s tanks have shown to be inept. It would be silly to continue investing in non-AI capabilities when they will clearly be outdone. We can be sure China is thinking along the same lines, as their public statements match a 10-year time horizon for AI-enabled warfare.
在这个十年的结尾,任何不具备人工智能能力的军事力量都将在面对人工智能驱动的对手时变得几乎毫无用处,就像俄罗斯的坦克所展示的那样效率低下。继续投资于非人工智能的军事能力是愚蠢的,因为它们明显会被远远甩在后面。我们可以确定中国正在以同样的思路前进,因为他们的公开声明都指向了将人工智能应用于战争的 10 年时间框架。
The clock must start ticking. Either we will modernize our existing military capabilities with AI, or we need to retire them and make room for new AI-enabled capabilities.
时钟必须开始计时。要么我们用人工智能来现代化我们现有的军事能力,要么我们需要退役它们,为新的人工智能驱动的能力腾出空间。
We will be caught flat-footed unless we start charting a path to the future where AI is at the core of our warfighter, both at tactical and strategic levels. We cannot afford to invest into non-AI systems.
我们将措手不及,除非我们开始为未来铺平道路,而人工智能将成为我们作战人员的核心,无论是战术还是战略层面。我们无法投资于非人工智能系统。
Recommendation 3: The United States needs to disrupt itself with AI Grand Challenges within the Department of Defense.
建议 3:美国需要在国防部内通过人工智能重大挑战来颠覆自身。
The largest AI program within the Department of Defense is still Project Maven, which was started in 2017. In the past 5 years, the United States has still not started, let alone operationalized, a major AI capability that could disrupt our current warfighter. We are falling perfectly into the trap that China has called out—we are too focused on maintenance of legacy technology to invest into disruption.
国防部内最大的人工智能计划仍然是自 2017 年开始的"Maven 计划"。在过去的 5 年里,美国还没有启动,更谈不上实施任何可能颠覆我们现有作战人员的重大人工智能能力。我们正完全陷入中国所指出的陷阱——过于专注于维护传统技术,而无暇投资于颠覆性技术。
This is untenable. The United States needs to act quickly in starting up and dramatically accelerating more programs to fund AI Grand Challenges. We are running out of time before a future Taiwanese invasion, and we need to get started now if we want any AI to be deployed in time.
这是不可维持的。美国需要迅速行动,启动和大幅加速更多资助人工智能宏大挑战的计划。在未来可能发生的台湾入侵之前,我们所剩的时间不多了,如果希望在那之前有任何人工智能被部署,我们就需要立即行动。
There are a number of candidates for transformational AI Grand Challenges:
存在一些变革性人工智能重大挑战候选:
AI for all-source intelligence
全源情报的人工智能AI battle planning and COA generation
人工智能战役规划和行动方案生成AI for cyber vulnerability detection
网络脆弱性检测的人工智能AI for automated target recognition for missiles
用于导弹自动目标识别的人工智能
Any of these could be critical capabilities in future conflicts—we just need to pick a few and get started.
这些都可能成为未来冲突中的关键能力,我们只需要选择几个并开始着手。
Without seriously funding some AI Grand Challenges, we are running out of time and allowing China to leapfrog us. The United States is spending less than 0.2% of our military budget on development of AI technology—we should look towards rapidly 10x-ing our investment through these Grand Challenges.
如果不认真为某些人工智能大挑战提供资金支持,我们就会失去宝贵的时间,让中国超越我们。目前,美国在人工智能技术开发上的投入仅占国防预算的不到 0.2%,我们应该通过这些大挑战迅速把投资增加 10 倍。
Let’s stop experimenting with AI. Let’s build production AI programs with mission relevance.
让我们停止对人工智能进行实验。让我们构建具有使命相关性的生产人工智能程序。
Recommendation 4: The United States needs to invest into rapidly training and skilling our military commanders and personnel on AI.
建议 4:美国需要投资快速培训和培养其军事指挥官和人员的人工智能技能。
Even with advancements in technology—humans always pay the price of war. Even with AI, wars will be fought by people. The United States invests heavily to ensure that its military has the best equipment, training and leadership in the world. Investments in AI should be no different.
即使技术不断进步,人类也会为战争付出代价。即使有了人工智能,战争也将由人打响。美国大量投资,确保其军队拥有世界上最好的装备、训练和领导力。在人工智能方面的投资也应该如此。
Beyond simply training service members on AI fundamentals, the United States should train commanders & personnel to use AI as the component that will make multi-domain warfare a reality. Commanders must know how to use data as a military asset to fuel AI Overmatch.
除了简单地培训军事人员了解人工智能基础知识之外,美国还应该培训指挥官和人员如何使用人工智能,将其作为实现多域战争的关键因素。指挥官必须了解如何利用数据作为军事资产,推动人工智能优势的实现。
Historically, the country that can integrate new technologies into warfighting concepts and doctrine dominates. There’s no reason to believe this will be different. The Department of Defense needs a revamp of doctrine and warfighting concepts that recognize the AI-enabled future, not simply bolt AI on to concepts from the last war.
历史上,能够将新技术融入作战概念和学说的国家占据主导地位。没有理由认为这种情况会有所不同。国防部需要对学说和作战概念进行改革,以认识到人工智能支持的未来,而不是仅仅将人工智能附加到上一场战争的概念之上。
At Scale, we are fully committed to supporting the United States and its allies. This is one of the few true missions of our time. We cannot sit by the sidelines and watch the rise of an authoritarian regime. It is in moments like this that technologists can either rise to the challenge, or stand idle.
我们在规模上完全致力于支持美国及其盟友。这是我们这个时代为数不多的真正使命之一。我们不能旁观自己,目睹极权主义政权的崛起。正是在这样的时刻,技术人员要么迎接挑战,要么袖手旁观。
In the tech industry, we often talk about missions. They are often frivolous—do they really change the world or save lives? This mission, on the other hand, really fucking matters. The AI War will define the future of our world. Will future generations live under authoritarianism or democracy?
在科技行业,我们经常谈论使命。它们往往轻率—它们是否真的改变世界或拯救生命?另一方面,这个使命确实非常重要。人工智能战争将定义我们世界的未来。后代是生活在极权主义还是民主之下?
We have been active in working with the Department of Defense, and developing products for what we believe to be defining technologies of the future of AI warfare. I intend to share many of these technologies in the coming months, especially given the deafening urgency of the current situation.
我们一直积极与国防部合作,为我们认为将定义人工智能战争未来的技术开发产品。在接下来的几个月里,我打算分享这些技术,尤其是当前形势的紧迫性如此惊人。
I encourage my fellow technologists to recognize the austerity and severity of our times, and commit themselves to defending America. While I find it shocking that most American AI companies have not chosen to support national security, I do hope others join us.
我鼓励我的科技同行认识到当前的艰难时期,并致力于捍卫美国。虽然我感到震惊大多数美国人工智能公司并没有选择支持国家安全,但我希望其他人能加入我们。
We have to fight for the world we want to live in. It’s never mattered more.
我们必须为我们想要生活的世界而战。这从未像现在这样重要过。