Elsevier

Accident Analysis & Prevention
事故分析與預防

Volume 49, November 2012, Pages 12-22
第 49 卷,2012 年 11 月,第 12-22 頁
Accident Analysis & Prevention

Overview of critical risk factors in Power-Two-Wheeler safety
電動兩輪車安全中的關鍵風險因素概覽

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.04.009Get rights and content  獲取權限和內容

Abstract  摘要

Power-Two-Wheelers (PTWs) constitute a vulnerable class of road users with increased frequency and severity of accidents. The present paper focuses of the PTW accident risk factors and reviews existing literature with regard to the PTW drivers’ interactions with the automobile drivers, as well as interactions with infrastructure elements and weather conditions. Several critical risk factors are revealed with different levels of influence to PTW accident likelihood and severity. A broad classification based on the magnitude and the need for further research for each risk factor is proposed. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of dealing with accident configurations, the data quality and availability, methods implemented to model risk and exposure and risk identification which are critical for a thorough understanding of the determinants of PTW safety.
動力二輪車(PTWs)構成了一個易受傷害的道路使用者類別,其事故的頻率和嚴重性均有所增加。本文聚焦於 PTW 事故風險因素,並回顧了有關 PTW 駕駛員與汽車駕駛員的互動,以及與基礎設施元素和天氣條件的互動的現有文獻。揭示了幾個關鍵風險因素,這些因素對 PTW 事故的可能性和嚴重性具有不同程度的影響。提出了一個基於影響程度和每個風險因素進一步研究需求的廣泛分類。文章最後討論了處理事故配置、數據質量和可用性、實施模型風險和暴露以及風險識別的方法的重要性,這些都是徹底了解 PTW 安全性決定因素的關鍵。

Keywords  關鍵詞

Power-Two-Wheelers safety
Risk factors
Road safety
Road accidents

動力二輪車安全風險因素道路安全道路事故

1. Introduction  1. 導論

In the recent years, the Power-Two-Wheelers (PTWs) community has experienced extraordinary growth. Over the last 5 years, there has been a 41% increase in the number PTWs in circulation in Europe (CARE, 2008). The notable increases in motorcycling activities since the mid-1990s have been reported in a number of countries worldwide (Jamson and Chorlton, 2009). This growth may coincide with a systematic decrease in the space available for cars, especially in densely populated areas. In 2005, PTW rider fatalities accounted for the 15% of all traffic fatalities in EU (ERSO, 2006). The number of motorcycle fatalities in the EU has increased by 7% between 1999 and 2008, whereas the total number of fatalities has decreased by 30% during the same period (European Commission, 2010).
近年來,動力二輪車(PTWs)社群經歷了非凡的增長。在過去五年中,歐洲流通中的 PTWs 數量增加了 41%(CARE,2008)。自 1990 年代中期以來,許多國家報告摩托車活動顯著增加(Jamson 和 Chorlton,2009)。這種增長可能與汽車可用空間的系統性減少相吻合,特別是在人口密集的地區。2005 年,PTW 騎士死亡事故佔歐盟所有交通死亡事故的 15%(ERSO,2006)。1999 年至 2008 年間,歐盟摩托車死亡事故數量增加了 7%,而同期總死亡事故數量減少了 30%(歐洲委員會,2010)。
PTWs differ from regular vehicles both in driving style and in patterns and accident characteristics. They are a more economical means of transport, when compared to the rest of motorized vehicles, and more flexible in maneuvering and parking due to reduced size and, thus, more appealing to users in densely populated areas with significant portion of congested road network (Lin and Kraus, 2009). Moreover, PTW use penetrates all social and professional classes (ERSO, 2006). The newly introduced PTW models enhanced with intelligent systems and advanced technologies are also considered more environmentally efficient and are, hence, less polluting than those of the past (ERSO, 2006).
PTW 與一般車輛在駕駛風格、行駛模式及事故特性上有所不同。與其他機動車輛相比,它們是一種更經濟的交通工具,由於體積較小,因此在操控和停車上更為靈活,對於人口密集且道路網絡擁堵的地區尤其具有吸引力(林與克勞斯,2009)。此外,PTW 的使用貫穿所有社會和專業階層(歐洲道路安全觀察組織,2006)。新近推出的配備智能系統和先進技術的 PTW 模型也被認為在環境效率上有所提升,因此,相較於過去的車型,這些新型號的污染更少(歐洲道路安全觀察組織,2006)。
PTW accidents are potentially more serious when compared to car accidents (Preusser et al., 1995, Chen, 2009, Wong et al., 2010). The relative small size which most times is accompanied by a relatively powerful engine, the lack of protection of the rider and often the complex driving maneuvers increase risk and severity of accidents, due to easiness in stability lose at low speeds, tire friction loss at poor surface condition, as well as high acceleration capabilities and speeding associated to the difficulty in braking (Pearson and Whittington, 2001). Riders must focus on coordinating speed and body angle and managing traction and control, while navigating various surfaces, curves and conditions. Moreover, the small shape of most PTWs increases the risk of accidents, as automobile drivers fail to detect them or predict properly their maneuvers and speed.
PTW 事故與汽車事故相比,潛在的嚴重性更大(Preusser 等人,1995 年;陳,2009 年;黃等人,2010 年)。PTW 通常體積較小但配備相對強大的引擎,騎士缺乏保護,且常需執行複雜的駕駛操作,這些因素增加了事故的風險和嚴重性,因為在低速時容易失去穩定性,路面狀況不佳時輪胎摩擦力降低,以及高加速能力和與剎車困難相關的超速行為(Pearson 與 Whittington,2001 年)。騎士必須專注於協調速度和軀體角度,管理牽引力和控制,同時在各種路面、彎道和條件下導航。此外,大多數 PTW 的小型外形增加了事故風險,因為汽車駕駛員未能察覺到它們或正確預測其機動性和速度。
Recent results support that the implementation of road safety regulation, improvement in the quality of political institutions, and medical care and technology developments may affect PTW safety and contribute to reduced motorcycle fatalities (Paulozzi et al., 2007, Law et al., 2009). Identifying the main characteristics of the PTW safety and especially those that may increase the risk of having an accident is a complex task, since, in almost all cases, a single contributing factor that caused an accident cannot be easily distinguished. Different studies have been carried out in the past where the specific problems of PTW drivers have been addressed.
近期研究支持,實施道路安全規章、提升政治機構品質、以及醫療保健和技術發展可能影響機動兩輪車(PTW)的安全性,並有助於減少摩托車死亡事故(Paulozzi 等人,2007 年;Law 等人,2009 年)。確定 PTW 安全的主要特徵,特別是那些可能增加發生事故風險的特徵,是一項複雜的任務,因為在幾乎所有情況下,都難以輕易區分導致事故的單一促成因素。過去已進行了不同的研究,針對 PTW 駕駛者的特定問題進行了探討。
In this paper, the majority of these studies are reviewed in order to identify the critical factors in PTW accident causation. Focus is given on the factors that dominate the interaction between PTW drivers’ and automobile drivers’ behavior on the road, the interaction of PTW drivers with the road infrastructure, as well as those sourcing from weather conditions and the vehicle-related characteristics. The consulted sources in this literature review vary from public research studies performed by governments to published scientific papers.
在本文中,我們回顧了大多數相關研究,以確定摩托車事故成因中的關鍵因素。重點關注影響摩托車駕駛者與汽車駕駛者在道路上的互動行為、摩托車駕駛者與道路基礎設施的互動,以及來自天氣條件和車輛相關特性的因素。本文獻回顧中諮詢的資源範圍從政府進行的公共研究到發表的科學論文。

2. Behavioral accident risk factors
行為事故風險因素

2.1. PTW drivers’ attitudes and driving patterns
2.1 機動兩輪車駕駛者的態度與駕駛模式

Significant variability is observed in the motorcyclists’ attitude toward safety. Most times PTWs pay attention to safety issues, but there are age groups and other driver/rider classes that, either – intentionally or unintentionally – seem to disregard them. Risk taking, as well as sensation seeking is typical riders’ behaviors (Wong et al., 2010). This behavior is usually reflected on activities such as speeding, disobeying traffic signals, give-way or stop sign, non-compliance to overtaking restrictions or pedestrian crossing, making illegal turns, maintaining short gaps with the following vehicles and so on. Mannering and Grodsky (1995) state that, because motorcycle riding is well known to be a dangerous activity, it ‘may tend to attract risk-seeking individuals, in all age and socio-economic categories’, which may have a corresponding effect on the total motorcycle accident figures.
在摩托車手對安全的態度中觀察到顯著的變異性。大多數時候,機動兩輪車(PTWs)會關注安全問題,但存在某些年齡組別和其他駕駛者/騎士類別,他們可能會有意或無意地忽視這些問題。冒險行為以及尋求刺激通常是典型騎士的行為(Wong 等人,2010)。這種行為通常反映在諸如超速、不服從交通信號、讓路或停車標誌、不遵守超車限制或行人穿越、非法轉彎、與後方車輛保持短距離等活動上。Mannering 和 Grodsky(1995)指出,由於騎摩托車是眾所周知的危險活動,它「可能傾向於吸引尋求冒險的個體,涵蓋所有年齡和社會經濟類別」,這可能對摩托車事故總數產生相應的影響。
Moreover, PTW drivers have a unique perception of hazard different than the one of automobile drivers. Horswill and Helman (2003) conducted a comparative study between a group of motorcyclists and a matched group of automobile drivers and found that motorcyclists travel faster than a matched group of car drivers and may exhibit a better hazard perception – faster in detecting and responding to hazards – than the automobile drivers. Recently, Rosenbloom et al. (2011) also reported evidence on the higher hazard perception ability of PTW drivers over the automobile drivers.
此外,PTW 駕駛者對危險的感知與汽車駕駛者有所不同。Horswill 與 Helman(2003)進行了一項比較研究,對一組摩托車駕駛者和一組相匹配的汽車駕駛者進行了比較,發現摩托車駕駛者的行駛速度比相匹配的汽車駕駛者更快,且可能在危險感知方面表現得更好——在檢測和應對危險方面更迅速。最近,Rosenbloom 等人(2011)也報告了 PTW 駕駛者在危險感知能力上超過汽車駕駛者的證據。
PTW drivers’ behavior is related to age and riding exposure; a period of absence from riding might lead to a decline in safety related motorcycle skills, whereas high exposure appears to moderate crash risk (Harrison and Christie, 2005). Harrison and Christie (2005) identify three high-risk groups of riders based on accident data from Sydney with respect to the frequency and type – recreational or not – of trips they conduct. Sexton et al. (2006) analyzed the levels of risk acceptance by motorcyclists, their attitudes to risk and their perceptions of personal risk, and divided PTW drivers to: (a) risk deniers who deny the statistical risk levels and did not worry about risk), (b) optimistic accepters who are aware of or willing to believe the statistical risk but were not worried about it and tended to believe it did not apply to them), and (c) realistic accepters who are aware or willing to believe the statistical risk, they worry more about the risks than the other groups, they are more aware that their own skills do not protect them from this risk.
PTW 駕駛者的行為與年齡和騎乘暴露有關;長時間不騎乘可能導致與安全相關的摩托車技能下降,而高度暴露似乎能夠減緩碰撞風險(Harrison 與 Christie,2005)。Harrison 與 Christie(2005)根據悉尼的事故數據,識別出三個高風險騎士群體,這些群體是根據他們進行的旅行的頻率和類型(娛樂性與否)來劃分的。Sexton 等人(2006)分析了摩托車手對風險接受的程度、他們對風險的態度以及對個人風險的感知,並將 PTW 駕駛者分為:(a)風險否認者,他們否認統計上的風險水平且不擔心風險;(b)樂觀接受者,他們意識到或願意相信統計風險,但不擔心它,並傾向於認為這不適用於他們;(c)現實接受者,他們意識到或願意相信統計風險,他們比其他群體更擔心風險,他們更清楚自己的技能無法保護他們免受這種風險。
Personality diversities have significant impacts on driving behaviors and can explain various risky riding behaviors (Wong et al., 2010). Clarke et al. (2005) suggest overconfidence as a primary cause for risky riding behavior of young PTW drivers. Watson et al. (2007) determined the following six major types of behavior that characterize both safer and riskier riding as identified by riders: handling the motorcycle skillfully, maintaining concentration and focus on the road environment, not riding whilst impaired, obeying the road rules, not pushing the limits, not performing stunts or riding at extreme speeds. Wong et al. (2010) demonstrated that personality attitudes, such as sensation seeking, amiability and impatience may influence risky driving behaviors especially for young riders; sensation seeking or impatient riders think of unsafe riding intrinsically, whereas amiable riders think of unsafe riding largely due to their worry or concerns about traffic risks.
個性多樣性對駕駛行為有顯著影響,並可解釋各種危險騎行行為(Wong 等人,2010)。Clarke 等人(2005)認為過度自信是年輕機動兩輪車駕駛者危險騎行行為的主要原因。Watson 等人(2007)確定了以下六種主要行為類型,這些行為類型由騎士識別,既包括更安全的騎行也包括風險較高的騎行:熟練地操控摩托車、保持對道路環境的專注和集中、不在受損狀態下騎行、遵守道路規則、不逾越極限、不表演特技或以極端速度騎行。Wong 等人(2010)展示了個性態度,如尋求刺激、和藹可親和不耐煩可能會影響危險駕駛行為,尤其是對年輕騎士;尋求刺激或不耐煩的騎士認為不安全騎行是本質上的,而和藹的騎士則主要由於對交通風險的擔憂或顧慮而認為騎行不安全。
PTW driving attitudes are greatly affected by socio-cultural factors and socio-economic factors (Preusser et al., 1995, Njå and Nesvåg, 2007, Li et al., 2009). Njå and Nesvåg (2007) state that any attempt to reveal causalities related to factors, such has speed, gender, age, lack of concentration, etc., in PTW accident risk may be efficient if only associated to social and cultural factors. Literature indicates that socio-cultural factors are difficult to quantify and assess, due to diversity in views of purposes, values, social contexts, and influencing factors that affect the PTW drivers (Njå and Nesvåg, 2007, Chen and Chen, 2011). Some studies have underlined the subjective norm and perceived behavioral control as critical to speeding behavior (Elliott, 2010, Wong et al., 2010), whereas other studies emphasize the significance of the perceived enjoyment, the personality traits and past experience (Chen, 2009, Chen and Chen, 2011). Finally, Law et al. (2009) provided evidence that motorcycle deaths follow an inverted U-shape relationship with per capita income and suggested that the implementation of road safety regulation, improvement in the quality of political institutions, medical care and technology developments have contributed to the reduced motorcycle deaths.
PTW 駕駛態度受到社會文化因素和社會經濟因素的極大影響(Preusser 等,1995 年,Njå和 Nesvåg,2007 年,Li 等,2009 年)。Njå和 Nesvåg(2007 年)指出,任何試圖揭示與因素相關的因果關係,如速度、性別、年齡、注意力不集中等,在 PTW 事故風險中可能是有效的,如果只與社會和文化因素相關聯的話。文獻表明,由於目的、價值觀、社會背景和影響 PTW 駕駛者的因素觀點多樣性,社會文化因素難以量化和評估(Njå和 Nesvåg,2007 年,陳與陳,2011 年)。一些研究強調了主觀規範和知覺行為控制對超速行為至關重要(Elliott,2010 年,Wong 等,2010 年),而其他研究則強調知覺享受、個性特質和過去經驗的重要性(陳,2009 年,陳與陳,2011 年)。最後,羅等。 (2009) 提供了證據表明,摩托車死亡率與人均收入呈倒 U 型關係,並建議道路安全法規的實施、政治機構質量的提升、醫療護理和技術發展有助於減少摩托車死亡。

2.2. Errors and violations
2.2. 錯誤與違規

Several European studies have highlighted the most frequent errors regarding PTW accidents (ACEM, 2003, TRACE, 2008). PTW accident involvement has been also associated with the willingness to commit traffic violations (Rutter and Quine, 1996). Speeding is a frequent violation which has been analyzed in many studies and may result to accidents due to the complex dynamics comparing to passenger cars (Hurt et al., 1981, Horswill and Helman, 2003, Elliott et al., 2007, Steg and Van Brussel, 2009). Steg and Van Brussel (2009) found that moped riders were more likely to speed, and had a stronger intention to disobey speed limits when they have a positive attitude toward speeding, and when they think that others expect them to speed. Speeding greatly affects the injury severity (Branas and Knudson, 2001, Savolainen and Mannering, 2007). The effect of speeding is intensified at unsignalized junctions (Pai and Saleh, 2007). Recently, Elliott et al. (2007) provided a methodology to distinguish between traffic errors, control errors, speed violations, stunts, and use of safety equipment; they concluded that reducing riding violations related to speed will increase PTW safety, since, by eliminating such situations, advanced skills in order to avoid accidents would be less frequently required. It should be noted that traffic law violations are usually higher than reported by the police as people tend to under-report their bad behavior (Dandona et al., 2006); under-reporting is a serious consideration in accidentology and may vary according to injury severity, road user type and road type (Amoros et al., 2006).
多項歐洲研究已突顯出有關電單車事故(PTW accidents)最常見的錯誤(ACEM,2003 年;TRACE,2008 年)。電單車事故的涉及也與願意違反交通規則的意願有關(Rutter 和 Quine,1996 年)。超速是一種常見的違規行為,許多研究已對此進行了分析,並可能由於與乘用車相比的複雜動態而導致事故(Hurt 等人,1981 年;Horswill 和 Helman,2003 年;Elliott 等人,2007 年;Steg 和 Van Brussel,2009 年)。Steg 和 Van Brussel(2009 年)發現,騎摩托車的人更可能超速,且當他們對超速持正面態度,以及認為其他人期望他們超速時,違反速限的意圖更強。超速極大地影響了傷害的嚴重性(Branas 和 Knudson,2001 年;Savolainen 和 Mannering,2007 年)。在無信號交叉口,超速的影響更為加劇(Pai 和 Saleh,2007 年)。最近,Elliott 等人。 (2007) 提供了一種方法論,用以區分交通錯誤、控制錯誤、速度違規、特技表演以及安全裝備的使用;他們得出結論,減少與速度相關的騎行違規行為將提高機動兩輪車(PTW)的安全性,因為通過消除這些情況,避免事故所需的高級技能將較少被需要。應該注意的是,交通法規違反的情況通常高於警方報告的數據,因為人們傾向於少報自己的不良行為(Dandona 等人,2006 年);少報是事故學中的一個嚴重考慮因素,並可能根據傷害嚴重性、道路使用者類型和道路類型而有所不同(Amoros 等人,2006 年)。

2.3. Conspicuity and perception of automobile drivers for PTWs
2.3. 汽車駕駛者對於機動二輪車的顯著性與感知

Due to their size, PTWs may be difficult to be detected by other users (conspicuity). “Look but fail to see” and poor drivers’ perception is among the most important contributing factor to PTW accidents in UK (Huang and Preston, 2004, Clarke et al., 2007). Conspicuity is related to the ‘expectation’ factor of automobile drivers; if the driver does not expect to encounter a motorcycle or a pedestrian he or she will most likely fail to see it (Simons, 2000, Clarke et al., 2007). Most right-of-way accidents involving PTWs are attributed to conspicuity (Pai et al., 2009). Pai (2011) provides a thorough review of the conspicuity issues and automobile driver's decision errors affecting the right-of-way accidents. Horswill and Helman (2003) emphasized on a three-step process for describing the perception of automobile drivers while approaching a motorcycle in junctions: looking, processing and appraising the risk. Labbett and Langham (2006) demonstrated automobile drivers’ propensity to fixate at the focus of expansion, and suggested that novice automobile drivers might fixate an oncoming motorcycle sooner than their more experienced counterparts. Moreover, the failure to correctly appraise the risk is mainly due to size arrival effect (the size of an approaching vehicle can influence the perception of its speed and the time it will arrive at the junction) (DeLucia, 1991). Crundall et al. (2008) found that automobile drivers have difficulties in perceiving the motorcycles that were particularly at far distances. Conspicuity is usually addressed via reflective or fluorescent clothing, headlight operation and the color of the helmet (Wells et al., 2004).
由於其體積,機動兩輪車(PTWs)可能難以被其他用戶察覺(顯著性)。英國的機動兩輪車事故中,「看而未見」和駕駛員感知能力差是最重要的促成因素之一(Huang and Preston, 2004; Clarke et al., 2007)。顯著性與汽車駕駛員的「預期」因素有關;如果駕駛員沒有預期遇到摩托車或行人,他或她很可能看不到它(Simons, 2000; Clarke et al., 2007)。大多數涉及 PTWs 的優先權事故都歸因於顯著性(Pai et al., 2009)。Pai(2011)對顯著性問題和影響優先權事故的汽車駕駛員決策錯誤進行了全面的回顧。Horswill 和 Helman(2003)強調了描述汽車駕駛員在接近交叉口摩托車時的感知的三步驟過程:觀察、處理和評估風險。Labbett 和 Langham(2006)展示了汽車駕駛員傾向於注視擴展焦點,並建議新手汽車駕駛員可能比經驗豐富的駕駛員更早地注視迎面而來的摩托車。 此外,未能正確評估風險主要是由於尺寸到達效應(接近車輛的大小可以影響對其速度和到達交叉口的時間的感知)(DeLucia,1991)。Crundall 等人(2008)發現,汽車駕駛員在感知遠距離的摩托車時存在困難。通常透過反光或螢光服裝、頭燈運作及頭盔顏色來解決顯著性問題(Wells 等人,2004)。

2.4. Age, gender and experience
2.4. 年齡、性別與經驗

Age, gender and experience may influence both PTW drivers’ attitudes and behavior. Risk taking behaviors are associated with young and inexperienced riders which increase their risk of being involved in a collision (Yeh and Chang, 2009). Rutter and Quine (1996) showed that the highest number of injured persons is typically found in age groups close to the lowest legal age limit for use of the vehicle and identified specific patterns of youth behaviors, such as a willingness to break the law and to violate the rules of safe riding, which had a much greater role in accident involvement than inexperience. Older motorcyclists are more likely to be involved severe injury crashes due to (i) decreased physical resiliency to motorcycle crashes and (ii) slow reaction time and reduced sensory and perceptual ability (Savolainen and Mannering, 2007, Pai and Saleh, 2007, Nunn, 2011). Clarke et al. (2002) has shown that younger PTW users tend to make more ‘attitudinal’ errors. Recently, Rathinam et al. (2007) studied the traffic accidents among underage users of motorcycles and concluded that aggressive behavior and previous encounter with the police are the two strong predictors of PTW accidents.
年齡、性別和經驗可能會影響機車駕駛者的態度和行為。冒險行為與年輕且缺乏經驗的騎士有關,這增加了他們涉及碰撞的風險(葉與張,2009)。Rutter 和 Quine(1996)顯示,受傷人數最多的通常是接近使用該車輛的最低法定年齡限制的年齡組,並確定了青少年行為的特定模式,例如願意違法和違反安全騎行規則,這在事故涉及中的作用遠大於缺乏經驗。年長的摩托車手更可能涉及嚴重傷害事故,原因是(i)對摩托車碰撞的身體恢復力下降以及(ii)反應時間緩慢和感官及知覺能力減退(Savolainen 與 Mannering,2007,Pai 與 Saleh,2007,Nunn,2011)。Clarke 等人(2002)已顯示,年輕的機車使用者傾向於犯更多「態度」錯誤。最近,Rathinam 等人。 (2007) 研究了未成年摩托車使用者的交通事故,得出結論認為攻擊性行為和之前與警方的遭遇是預測機動兩輪車事故的兩個強有力的預測因素。
Young and male motorcycle riders have a stronger propensity for risky behaviors, and these behaviors have been shown to be associated with increased risks of accidents and at-fault crashes, higher tendency toward negligence of traffic regulations and motorcycle safety checks (Mannering and Grodsky, 1995, Lin et al., 2003, Rutter and Quine, 1996, Sexton et al., 2004, Chang and Yeh, 2007, Haque et al., 2009). Berg et al. (2008) studied young moped riders, in Sweden, and concluded that there is a connection of trimming with riding in higher speeds and traffic violations. Njå and Nesvåg (2007) underline the importance of socio-cultural factors, for example espoused values, norms and beliefs, assisted by the lack of experience, to the accident proneness of adolescent PTW riders.
年輕男性摩托車駕駛者更傾向於冒險行為,這些行為已被證實與事故風險增加和自身責任事故的風險增加、對交通規則和摩托車安全檢查的忽視傾向有關(Mannering 和 Grodsky,1995 年,Lin 等人,2003 年,Rutter 和 Quine,1996 年,Sexton 等人,2004 年,Chang 和 Yeh,2007 年,Haque 等人,2009 年)。Berg 等人(2008 年)研究了瑞典的年輕機車騎士,得出結論認為修剪與高速駕駛和交通違規有關。Njå 和 Nesvåg(2007 年)強調了社會文化因素的重要性,例如公開的價值觀、規範和信仰,再加上缺乏經驗,對青少年 PTW 騎士的事故傾向性有所貢獻。
Riding experience seems more important for motorcyclists than for automobile drivers (Haworth and Mulvihill, 2005, Hosking et al., 2010). Sexton et al. (2004) found that motorcyclist gender, compulsory basic training, or whether he or she had ‘taken a break from riding’ are among the most critical accident risk factors. Liu et al. (2009) concluded that, under certain conditions, experienced riders exhibited superior responses to hazards compared to inexperienced or novice riders. Moreover, there is a transaction of experience and knowledge from the driving to the riding state that may increase risk awareness (Lardelli-Claret et al., 2005, Wong et al., 2010). Limited experience and poor driving skills, due to a loose motorcycle licensing system, are critical for young riders, particularly young female riders, in increasing accident risk (Chang and Yeh, 2007), while, for motorcycle accidents, the highest risk was found in the age group of 20–29 years (Barsi et al., 2002).
騎乘經驗對摩托車駕駛者似乎比對汽車駕駛者更為重要(Haworth 和 Mulvihill,2005 年;Hosking 等人,2010 年)。Sexton 等人(2004 年)發現,摩托車駕駛者的性別、強制性基礎訓練,或者他們是否「暫時停止騎乘」是最關鍵的事故風險因素之一。Liu 等人(2009 年)得出結論,在某些條件下,經驗豐富的騎士在應對危險時表現出比無經驗或新手騎士更優越的反應。此外,從駕駛到騎乘狀態的經驗和知識轉移可能會增加風險意識(Lardelli-Claret 等人,2005 年;Wong 等人,2010 年)。由於摩托車駕照制度寬鬆,經驗有限和駕駛技能不佳對年輕騎士尤其是年輕女性騎士在增加事故風險方面至關重要(Chang 和 Yeh,2007 年),而在摩托車事故中,20 至 29 歲年齡組的風險最高(Barsi 等人,2002 年)。

2.5. Education and learning
教育與學習

Education and licensing are considered to be popular PTW risk countermeasures. Literature has for long demonstrated the benefits of an effective rider's education system to the alleviation of PTW accident risk (Chesham et al., 1993). Nevertheless, Baldi et al. (2005) underlined that although motorcycle rider education and licensing play key roles in reducing motorcycle crashes and injuries, little is known about what constitutes effective rider training and licensing. Students affiliated with a vocational senior high school, male students, and students in districts with a higher motorcycle ownership rate had a greater chance of experiencing unlicensed riding and thus had an earlier riding age (Yeh and Chang, 2009).
教育和執照被認為是流行的機動兩輪車風險對策。長期以來的文獻已經證明了有效的騎士教育系統對減輕機動兩輪車事故風險的好處(Chesham 等人,1993)。然而,Baldi 等人(2005)強調,儘管摩托車騎士教育和執照在減少摩托車事故和傷害中扮演關鍵角色,但對於什麼構成有效的騎士培訓和執照,人們所知甚少。與職業高中有關的學生、男學生以及在摩托車擁有率較高的地區的學生,更有可能經歷無照駕駛,因此較早開始騎行(Yeh 和 Chang,2009)。
Training is usually suggested as a way to increase awareness of negative behavior, encouraging the rider to behave safely. Elliott et al. (2003) indicate that law and rule-breaking behavior is mainly habitual and needs tackling at the early stage of riders. The challenge for training is likely to be made more difficult by the facts that sensation-seeking motives are important for some riders, and that training concentrating on control skills may lead to more accidents if riders become over-confident (Elliott et al., 2003). Sexton and Elliott (2009) focused on the training provided to motorcyclists, identified current core training competencies in motorcycle training and revealed the ‘best’ practices. Swezey and Llaneras (1997) suggest that the change in skill declines with experience or learning trials, while exposure to riding may have an ongoing effect on crash risk that is similar to the effect of learning. Hosking et al. (2010) found a significant monotonic decrease in hazard response times, as PTW drivers’ experience increases and underlined the potential benefit of training hazard perception and visual scanning. However, literature states that it remains unclear whether the training of riding skills can reduce the incidence of motorcycle accidents and, for this, caution must be taken with educational efforts aimed at expanding motorcyclists’ skill set (Savolainen and Mannering, 2007). Goldenbeld et al. (2004) undertook a study in order to examine the effect of training with time and found that trainees who improved most in the short term actually showed the largest loss of skill in the long run, whereas trainees who improved less by training were able to improve their skill in the long run.
訓練通常被建議作為提高對負面行為認識的方式,鼓勵騎士安全行駛。Elliott 等人(2003 年)指出,違法和違規行為主要是習慣性的,需要在騎士早期階段就加以解決。訓練的挑戰可能會因為一些騎士重視尋求刺激的動機,以及專注於控制技能的訓練可能會導致騎士過度自信而增加事故的風險而變得更加困難(Elliott 等人,2003 年)。Sexton 和 Elliott(2009 年)專注於提供給摩托車騎士的訓練,確定了摩托車訓練中當前的核心訓練能力,並揭示了「最佳」實踐。Swezey 和 Llaneras(1997 年)建議,技能的變化隨著經驗或學習試驗的增加而下降,而騎乘的暴露可能對事故風險有持續的影響,這種影響類似於學習的效果。Hosking 等人(2010 年)發現,隨著 PTW 駕駛者經驗的增加,危險反應時間顯著單調下降,並強調了訓練危險感知和視覺掃描的潛在好處。 然而,文獻指出,目前尚不清楚騎乘技能訓練是否能降低摩托車事故的發生率,因此,在針對擴展摩托車駕駛者技能集的教育努力上必須保持謹慎(Savolainen 和 Mannering,2007)。Goldenbeld 等人(2004)進行了一項研究,旨在檢查隨時間訓練的效果,發現在短期內進步最多的受訓者實際上在長期中顯示了最大的技能流失,而那些通過訓練較少改善的受訓者卻能在長期中提升他們的技能。

2.6. Fatigue, alcohol and other impairments
2.6 疲勞、酒精及其他障礙

PTW or automobile drivers’ fatigue can be defined as (NTC, 2001): (a) impaired performance (loss of attentiveness, slower reaction times, impaired judgment, poor performance on skilled control tasks and increased probability of falling asleep) and subjective feelings of drowsiness or tiredness, and (b) long periods awake, inadequate amount or quality of sleep over an extended period, sustained mental or physical effort, and so on. Factors that appear to increase the likelihood of fatigue in motorcycling include the physical effort to control the motorcycle, concentration on the road surface, adverse weather, alcohols and other impairments (Horberry et al., 2008).
PTW 或汽車駕駛員疲勞可被定義為(NTC,2001):(a)表現受損(注意力喪失、反應時間變慢、判斷力受損、在技能控制任務上的表現不佳以及睡著的機率增加)和主觀感覺的嗜睡或疲勞,以及(b)長時間清醒、長期內睡眠量或質量不足、持續的心理或身體努力等。增加摩托車駕駛疲勞可能性的因素包括控制摩托車的體力努力、專注於路面、惡劣天氣、酒精和其他障礙(Horberry 等人,2008)。
Alcohol is an important risk factor of PTW accidents directly related to the decrease in riding skills (Soderstrom et al., 1993, Huang and Preston, 2004, Kasantikul et al., 2005, Lin and Kraus, 2009). In the US, alcohol is more frequently involved in fatal motorcycle crashes than in fatal crashes of other types of vehicles (NHTSA, 2008). Creaser et al. (2009) developed a test track and examined the riding skills of a set of motorcyclists under the influence of alcohol and found that alcohol affected the riders’ weaving skills, the attention allocation and the hazard perception of riders. Haworth et al. (2009) found that the tendency for alcohol may be associated to speeding, non-use of helmets and unlicensed riding for in both moped and motorcycles drivers.
酒精是與騎乘技能下降直接相關的機動兩輪車事故的重要風險因素(Soderstrom 等人,1993 年;Huang 和 Preston,2004 年;Kasantikul 等人,2005 年;Lin 和 Kraus,2009 年)。在美國,酒精在致命摩托車事故中的涉及頻率,比其他類型車輛的致命事故更高(NHTSA,2008 年)。Creaser 等人(2009 年)開發了一個測試賽道,並檢測了一組在酒精影響下的摩托車手的騎乘技能,發現酒精影響了騎士的編織技能、注意力分配以及騎士的危險感知。Haworth 等人(2009 年)發現,酒精的傾向可能與超速、不戴頭盔和無照駕駛有關,這在機動輕便摩托和摩托車駕駛者中都有所體現。

2.7. Personal safety equipment and apparel
2.7. 個人安全裝備與服裝

The effectiveness of safety equipment use has been supported in numerous studies (Branas and Knudson, 2001, Keng, 2005, Majdzadeh et al., 2008). PTW users can only rely on their protection equipment in case of accident (ACEM, 2003, RIDER, 2005). A typical protection measure is the helmet use whose importance has for long been supported in literature. However, the use of helmet in PTW riders remains low in smaller cities in developing countries or countries of hot climate (Dandona et al., 2006, Li et al., 2008). Research on assessing the effect of mandatory helmet laws generally indicates that these laws enhance motorcycle safety (Morris, 2006, Kyrychenko and McCartt, 2006, Houston, 2007, Mayrose, 2008). Ferrando et al. (2000) and Houston (2007) suggested that the proportion of fatalities with severe head injuries was also reduced after the establishment of the helmet law in the USA. Little evidence was found to suggest that the effect of helmet use varied with age or gender (Norvell and Cummings, 2002). Nevertheless, Kyrychenko and McCartt (2006) and Houston (2007) underlined the negative effect of any downgrading of universal helmet laws to young riders. Recent evidence has suggested that legislation may be a more efficient strategy than education to increase helmet use, as not always helmeted PTW drivers believe that helmets are not protective and impair sight/hearing, but will use them if forced by law (Ranney et al., 2010).
安全裝備使用的有效性已在眾多研究中得到支持(Branas 和 Knudson,2001 年,Keng,2005 年,Majdzadeh 等人,2008 年)。在發生事故的情況下,PTW 使用者只能依賴他們的防護裝備(ACEM,2003 年,RIDER,2005 年)。典型的防護措施是使用頭盔,其重要性長期以來在文獻中得到支持。然而,在發展中國家或氣候炎熱的國家的小城市中,PTW 騎士的頭盔使用率仍然較低(Dandona 等人,2006 年,Li 等人,2008 年)。關於評估強制性頭盔法律效果的研究通常表明,這些法律增強了摩托車安全(Morris,2006 年,Kyrychenko 和 McCartt,2006 年,Houston,2007 年,Mayrose,2008 年)。Ferrando 等人(2000 年)和 Houston(2007 年)建議,在美國建立頭盔法後,嚴重頭部傷害的死亡率也有所降低。很少有證據表明頭盔使用的效果隨年齡或性別而異(Norvell 和 Cummings,2002 年)。然而,Kyrychenko 和 McCartt(2006 年)和 Houston(2007 年)強調了對年輕騎士放寬通用頭盔法律的負面影響。 近期證據表明,相較於教育,立法可能是提高頭盔使用率的更有效策略,因為並非所有戴頭盔的機動兩輪車駕駛者都相信頭盔具有保護作用且會妨礙視聽,但如果法律強制要求,他們則會使用頭盔(Ranney 等人,2010)。
Lin and Kraus (2009) reviewed the previous studies on protective clothing and concluded that no advantages in the occurrence of fractures were associated to protecting clothing, except for reduced soft tissue injuries. The usage of protective clothing may be associated to the purpose of the trip and driver's education (de Rome et al., 2011). de Rome et al. (2011) found no evidence of an association between riding either unprotected or wearing non-motorcycle pants and other indicators of risk taking. It is to note that limited empirical evidence on the effect of protective boots, jackets, leg protectors, etc., to PTW safety is available in the literature (Lin and Kraus, 2009).
Lin 和 Kraus(2009)回顧了先前有關防護服的研究,並得出結論認為,除了減少軟組織損傷外,防護服與骨折發生率無明顯優勢。防護服的使用可能與旅行的目的和駕駛者的教育有關(de Rome 等人,2011)。de Rome 等人(2011)未發現騎乘無防護或穿著非摩托車褲與其他風險行為指標之間存在關聯的證據。值得注意的是,文獻中關於防護靴、夾克、腿部保護器等對於機動兩輪車安全影響的實證證據有限(Lin 和 Kraus,2009)。

3. Road infrastructure related accident risk factors
3. 與道路基礎設施相關的事故風險因素

3.1. Type of road network
3.1. 道路網絡類型

One of the major influential characteristics of infrastructure that affect the probability of PTW accidents is the type of area. In European countries, most accidents involving PTWs occur in urban areas (ACEM, 2003). In Australia, approximately 70% of motorcycle injuries occur on local area roads (Pearson and Whittington, 2001). In the US, the urban and suburban PTW accidents have been found to be the 80% of all PTW accidents observed (Hurt et al., 1981). The prevalence of death on rural roads and at intersections was relatively higher for motorcycle drivers compared to automobile drivers (Lin et al., 2004). Bridges can be problematic for motorcyclists; safety issues of increased accident risk arise in case of bridges that are placed on bends or if they have a surface friction lower than that of the approach road (e.g. concrete or wood after an asphalt road) (NPRA, 2004).
基礎設施的一個主要影響特性,影響機動兩輪車事故概率的是區域類型。在歐洲國家,大多數涉及機動兩輪車的事故發生在城市地區(ACEM,2003 年)。在澳大利亞,大約 70%的摩托車傷害發生在地方道路上(Pearson 和 Whittington,2001 年)。在美國,城市和郊區的機動兩輪車事故佔所有觀察到的機動兩輪車事故的 80%(Hurt 等人,1981 年)。與汽車駕駛相比,摩托車駕駛在鄉村道路和交叉路口的死亡率相對較高(Lin 等人,2004 年)。橋樑對摩托車駕駛來說可能是個問題;當橋樑設置在彎道上或者其表面摩擦力低於接近道路(例如,在瀝青路後的混凝土或木材)時,會增加事故風險的安全問題(NPRA,2004 年)。

3.2. Road geometry and roadside installations
3.2. 道路幾何與路側設施

A serious consideration in PTW safety is the influence of road geometry, roadside installations, such as barriers, posts and so on, as well as markings (ACEM, 2003). Elliott et al. (2003) suggested that parallel longitudinal grooves in the road surface (for example, to avoid aquaplaning) as well as inefficient marking can also induce instability to the PTW riders. Road markings, manholes and cattle grids can be more slippery than the road surface, especially when wet (NPRA, 2004).
PTW 安全的一個重要考慮因素是道路幾何形狀、路邊設施如護欄、柱子等,以及標記的影響(ACEM,2003)。Elliott 等人(2003)建議,道路表面的平行縱向溝槽(例如,為了避免水滑)以及效率低下的標記也可能導致 PTW 騎士的不穩定性。道路標記、人孔蓋和牛欄網在濕滑時可能比道路表面更滑(NPRA,2004)。
Literature has systematically underlined the risk associated to curves. Hurt et al. (1981) highlighted the high frequency of right of way violations and single vehicle accidents on bends. A high portion of motorcycle accidents that involve going out of control on a curve was also identified in Preusser et al. (1995), Sexton et al. (2004), Clarke et al. (2007). Schneider et al. (2010) assessed the impacts of horizontal curvature and other geometric features on the frequency of single-vehicle motorcycle crashes along segments of rural two-lane highways; they concluded that the radius and length of each horizontal curve, along with the shoulder width, annual average daily traffic, and the location of the road segment in relation to the curve significantly influence the frequency of motorcycle crashes, as do shoulder width, annual average daily traffic, and the location of the road segment in relation to the curve.
文獻系統地強調了彎道相關的風險。Hurt 等人(1981 年)突顯了在彎道處違反通行權和單一車輛事故的高發生率。Preusser 等人(1995 年)、Sexton 等人(2004 年)、Clarke 等人(2007 年)的研究也指出,摩托車在彎道失控事故中佔有很高的比例。Schneider 等人(2010 年)評估了橫向曲率和其他幾何特徵對於農村雙車道公路段單一車輛摩托車事故頻率的影響;他們得出結論,每個橫向彎道的半徑和長度,以及路肩寬度、年平均日交通量和道路段相對於彎道的位置,顯著影響摩托車事故的頻率,同樣影響的還有路肩寬度、年平均日交通量和道路段相對於彎道的位置。
Crash barriers have a significant contribution to the PTW accident risk. Gabler (2007) found that the fatality rates of PTW drivers were high accounting for 42% of all fatalities resulting from guardrail collisions, and 22% of the fatalities from concrete barrier collisions; in cases of crashes with guardrails PTW fatality rates were approximately 80 times higher than for other vehicles. Recently, Daniello and Gabler (2011) found that motorcycle collisions with guardrail were 7 times more likely to be fatal than hitting the ground. Gibson and Benetatos (2000) found that the majority of fatal impacts with barriers were at a relatively shallow angle (between 15° and 45°); such conditions occur when the rider is sliding into the barrier at a bend. The typical barrier impact location is a curve, and in about half of the cases the rider impacts in upright position (APROSYS, 2006). The major cause of injury when a rider comes into contact with a crash barrier is exposed posts (Gibson and Benetatos, 2000, Duncan et al., 2000, MAG, 2005). Moreover, riding has been found to be affected by the presence of surveillance cameras; not-at-fault crash involvement at intersections is reduced in such a setting (Haque et al., 2009).
防撞護欄對於機動兩輪車事故風險具有顯著的影響。Gabler(2007 年)發現,機動兩輪車駕駛者的死亡率很高,佔所有由護欄碰撞導致的死亡事故的 42%,以及混凝土障礙物碰撞導致的死亡事故的 22%;在與護欄發生碰撞的案例中,機動兩輪車的死亡率大約是其他車輛的 80 倍。近期,Daniello 和 Gabler(2011 年)發現,摩托車與護欄碰撞的致命性是撞擊地面的 7 倍。Gibson 和 Benetatos(2000 年)發現,與障礙物致命碰撞的大多數是在相對較淺的角度(15°至 45°之間)發生;這種情況通常發生在騎士在彎道處滑向護欄時。典型的障礙物碰撞地點是曲線,大約一半的案例中,騎士是以直立姿勢撞擊(APROSYS,2006 年)。騎士與防撞護欄接觸時的主要傷害原因是暴露的柱子(Gibson 和 Benetatos,2000 年,Duncan 等人,2000 年,MAG,2005 年)。 此外,騎乘行為受到監控攝像頭的影響;在這種情況下,交叉路口無過失事故的發生率有所降低(Haque 等,2009)。
In recent years, extensive debate has focused on the material of barriers and the general philosophy of their design. The results obtained from simulated concrete barrier tests indicate that motorcyclists impacting in an upright position will experience low deceleration and sustain survivable injuries, unless they are catapulted over the barrier and strike the objects around which the barriers were built, whereas the results on the simulated wire rope barrier tests showed that riders are likely to get caught and decelerate very quickly (Berg et al., 2005). The wire rope barrier system is viewed by motorcyclists as the most aggressive form of Vehicle Restraint Systems causing the most injuries to riders (MAG, 2005). It should be noted that the current standards and specifications for roadside hardware, and the systems themselves and rarely designed to take into account the impact by motorcyclists (ATSB, 2000, MacDonald, 2002, Ibitoye et al., 2006, Tan et al., 2008).
近年來,關於障礙物材料及其設計哲學的辯論十分激烈。從模擬混凝土障礙物測試所得結果顯示,當摩托車手以直立姿勢撞擊時,會經歷低減速並承受可生存的傷害,除非他們被彈射過障礙物並撞擊到障礙物周圍的物體。然而,模擬鋼索障礙物測試的結果顯示,騎士們很可能被纏住並迅速減速(Berg 等人,2005)。摩托車手認為鋼索障礙系統是車輛限制系統中最具侵略性的形式,對騎士造成最多的傷害(MAG,2005)。值得注意的是,目前道路設施的標準和規範,以及這些系統本身很少設計時考慮到摩托車手的撞擊(ATSB,2000;MacDonald,2002;Ibitoye 等人,2006;Tan 等人,2008)。

3.3. Lighting and visibility
3.3. 照明與能見度

A significant concern in PTW safety is visibility. Poor visibility (horizontal curvature, vertical curvature, darkness) is responsible for increased motorcycle injury severity (Savolainen and Mannering, 2007, Wanvik, 2009). Poor sightline visibility and rider conspicuity are likely to contribute to motorcycle accidents at intersections (NPRA, 2004). Moreover, riding in darkness without street lighting was related to severe motorcyclists’ injury (de Lapparent, 2006, Pai and Saleh, 2007, Pai and Saleh, 2008a, Pai and Saleh, 2008b). Motorcyclists often experience reduced visibility when wearing glasses, visors or wind shields that may decrease in cases of riding inside tunnels (NPRA, 2004). Injuries resulting from after midnight night riding (0:00–07:00), in general, have been found to be the most severe, especially in junctions controlled by stop, and give-way signs and markings (Pai and Saleh, 2007). Motorcyclists are found to be more vulnerable during night time at both intersections and expressways, perhaps because of increased speeds and stronger impacts (Haque et al., 2009).
摩托車安全中一個重要的問題是能見度。不良的能見度(水平曲率、垂直曲率、黑暗)是導致摩托車傷害嚴重性增加的原因(Savolainen 和 Mannering,2007 年,Wanvik,2009 年)。不良的視線能見度和騎士顯著性很可能導致在交叉口發生摩托車事故(NPRA,2004 年)。此外,夜間在無街燈的情況下騎行與摩托車騎士的嚴重傷害有關(de Lapparent,2006 年,Pai 和 Saleh,2007 年,Pai 和 Saleh,2008a 年,Pai 和 Saleh,2008b 年)。摩托車騎士在戴眼鏡、面罩或風擋時常會經歷能見度降低,尤其是在隧道內騎行時(NPRA,2004 年)。一般來說,午夜後騎行(00:00–07:00)所導致的傷害被發現是最嚴重的,特別是在由停止和讓行標誌及標線控制的交叉路口(Pai 和 Saleh,2007 年)。摩托車騎士在夜間在交叉口和高速公路上被發現更容易受到傷害,這可能是由於速度增加和撞擊力更強(Haque 等人,2009 年)。

3.4. Type of collision  3.4. 碰撞類型

Preusser et al. (1995) found that ran off-road and head-on collisions are predominantly the result of one or more errors on the part of the motorcyclist. At-fault crashes on expressways are found to increase when riding in the median lane, with higher engine capacity (Haque et al., 2009). Head-on collisions with other vehicles while negotiating a curve make up 6% of person injury accidents, and 13% of fatal accidents (NPRA, 2004). Collisions with stationary objects result in more severe injuries (Quddus et al., 2002, Lin et al., 2003, Keng, 2005, Savolainen and Mannering, 2007). Motorcyclists were likely to be engaged to a severe accident during overtaking or while vehicles – either PTW or automobile – made a turn (Pai and Saleh, 2008b). At collisions at intersections between cars and motorcycles the automobile drivers are usually at fault; the automobile drivers do not “see” motorcycles, due to either the shape and color of motorcycles or the automobile drivers have a strong set to just notice other cars making them overlook motorcycles even though they are clearly visible (Glad, 2001).
Preusser 等人(1995 年)發現,摩托車偏離道路和迎面碰撞主要是由於駕駛者一個或多個錯誤所致。在高速公路上,當騎乘在中間車道且引擎排量較大時,肇事率會增加(Haque 等人,2009 年)。在轉彎時與其他車輛迎面碰撞,造成了 6%的人員受傷事故和 13%的致命事故(NPRA,2004 年)。與靜止物體的碰撞導致更嚴重的傷害(Quddus 等人,2002 年;Lin 等人,2003 年;Keng,2005 年;Savolainen 和 Mannering,2007 年)。摩托車駕駛在超車或其他車輛(無論是兩輪車還是汽車)轉彎時,很可能會發生嚴重事故(Pai 和 Saleh,2008b)。在汽車與摩托車的交叉路口碰撞中,通常是汽車駕駛員的過錯;汽車駕駛員由於摩托車的形狀和顏色或者汽車駕駛員只注意到其他汽車,從而忽略了明顯可見的摩托車(Glad,2001 年)。

3.5. Junction type  3.5. 節點類型

Junction type is a significant influential factor of PTW safety. More than half of motorcycle crashes with personal injury occur at T-junctions including entrances and exits. Hurt et al. (1981) and de Lapparent (2006) note that the probability that a severe/fatal accident occurs at intersections is higher than the same probability at non intersections. The most common of accident has been found to be the right of way violation (ROWV), where a vehicle pulls out from a side road onto a main carriageway into the path of an approaching motorcycle (Hurt et al., 1981, Haworth and Mulvihill, 2005, de Lapparent, 2006, Crundall et al., 2008, Pai et al., 2009); Pai (2011) provides a thorough review of such crash settings and underlines the impact of the lack of motorcycle conspicuity and automobile driver's speed/distance judgment error.
路口類型是影響機動兩輪車安全的重要因素。超過一半的摩托車個人傷害事故發生在包括進出口的 T 型路口。Hurt 等人(1981 年)和 de Lapparent(2006 年)指出,在交叉路口發生嚴重/致命事故的概率高於非交叉路口。最常見的事故類型是違反行車優先權(ROWV),即一輛車從側路駛出,進入主要車道,並切入迎面而來的摩托車的行駛路徑(Hurt 等人,1981 年;Haworth 和 Mulvihill,2005 年;de Lapparent,2006 年;Crundall 等人,2008 年;Pai 等人,2009 年);Pai(2011 年)對此類碰撞場景進行了詳盡的回顧,並強調了摩托車不易被看見的問題以及汽車駕駛者的速度/距離判斷錯誤的影響。
Pai and Saleh, 2007, Pai and Saleh, 2008a provide an extensive study on the interaction of junction type and motorcycle injury severity and identify the following factors contributing to motorcyclist injury severity at non-signalized junctions: elderly rider, greater engine size of motorcycle, riding in early morning (0:00–07:00), on weekend and under fine weather, street lights unlit, riding on uncongested road, collisions with bus/coach. In the case of signalized intersection, Pai and Saleh (2007, 2008) identified the engine size, the collisions with bus/coach, riding under fine weather and on rural road and type of collision as being critical to PTW safety. Very similar findings were also demonstrated by Yannis et al. (2005).
Pai 和 Saleh 在 2007 年和 2008 年的研究中廣泛探討了交叉口類型與摩托車事故嚴重性的互動,並確定了以下因素對非信號化交叉口摩托車駕駛人傷害嚴重性的影響:年長駕駛人、摩托車引擎排量較大、清晨(00:00–07:00)騎行、週末騎行、天氣晴朗、街燈未亮、在不擁擠的道路上騎行、與巴士/教練車相撞。在有信號的交叉口情況下,Pai 和 Saleh(2007, 2008)確定引擎排量、與巴士/教練車相撞、在晴朗天氣下騎行、在鄉村道路上騎行以及碰撞類型對於兩輪車安全至關重要。Yannis 等人(2005)的研究也展示了非常相似的發現。

3.6. Pavement surface conditions
3.6. 鋪面表面狀況

Most PTW crashes occur on dry road surfaces (ACEM, 2003); this could be explained by the fact that most motorcyclists use their bikes only during fine weather conditions. Shankar and Mannering (1996) emphasize on the impact of the pavement surface and type of highway to sideswipe collisions between motorcycles and other motorized vehicles at junctions. Wet pavement surface is found to cause at-fault motorcycle accidents at non-intersections (Haque et al., 2009). However, Savolainen and Mannering (2007) suggest that in certain circumstances, risks could be mitigated by motorcyclists; for example, maintaining lower speeds on wet pavement conditions, near intersections.
大多數 PTW 事故發生在乾燥的道路表面上(ACEM,2003 年);這可以用大多數摩托車手僅在天氣良好的條件下使用他們的摩托車來解釋。Shankar 和 Mannering(1996 年)強調了路面表面和高速公路類型對於摩托車與其他機動車輛在交叉口發生側擦碰撞的影響。濕潤的路面被發現會導致非交叉口處的摩托車過失事故(Haque 等人,2009 年)。然而,Savolainen 和 Mannering(2007 年)建議,在某些情況下,摩托車手可以通過某些措施來減少風險;例如,在濕潤的路面條件下,靠近交叉口處保持較低的速度。
Road surface actively contributed to 15% of crashes examined by the Victorian Motorcycle case control study (Haworth et al., 1997); the authors suggested that the important factors in these collisions were the surface grip, surface irregularities and potholes, loose materials, patch repairs and road markings. Pearson and Whittington (2001), state that motorcycles are very sensitive to changes in friction level between the road surface and tires; once a tire loose friction with the terrain the centrifugal force and the weight force, which are centered in the center of gravity, create a momentum that leads the motorcycle to an sudden rotation (Cossalter et al., 2007). Bitumen used in the repair of road surfaces have much lower skid resistance than for wet tarmac causing steering problems when riders cross wet bitumen, particularly whilst leaning or braking in an upright position (Elliott et al., 2003).
根據維多利亞摩托車案例對照研究(Haworth 等人,1997),道路表面對於所調查的事故中有 15%起到了積極的影響;作者指出,這些碰撞中的重要因素包括路面抓地力、表面不規則性和坑洞、松散物質、補丁修復以及道路標記。Pearson 和 Whittington(2001)指出,摩托車對於路面與輪胎之間摩擦水平的變化非常敏感;一旦輪胎與地面失去摩擦,離心力和重力,這兩者都集中在重心,便會產生一個動量,導致摩托車突然旋轉(Cossalter 等人,2007)。用於修復道路表面的瀝青,其濕潤柏油的抗滑性要低得多,當騎士在傾斜或直立煞車時穿越濕瀝青,特別容易造成轉向問題(Elliott 等人,2003)。

4. Vehicle related accident risk factors
4. 車輛相關事故風險因素

The type and characteristics of PTW have an important role on accidents likelihood and severity. Great motorcycle engine size may increase the injury severity levels regardless of the control measure adopted (Quddus et al., 2002; Langley et al., 2000; Lin et al., 2003, Sexton et al., 2004, Harrison and Christie, 2005, de Lapparent, 2006, Pai and Saleh, 2007, Savolainen and Mannering, 2007). Brorsson et al. (1984) reported a clear-cut relationship of engine displacement and power to wobbling (unrestricted oscillation of front wheel flutter and high-speed weave). Moreover, collisions with heavier vehicles result in more severe injuries (Quddus et al., 2002, Lin et al., 2003, Keng, 2005, Pai and Saleh, 2007).
PTW 的類型和特性對事故的可能性和嚴重性具有重要影響。大排量摩托車引擎可能會增加傷害的嚴重程度,無論採取何種控制措施(Quddus 等人,2002 年;Langley 等人,2000 年;Lin 等人,2003 年;Sexton 等人,2004 年;Harrison 和 Christie,2005 年;de Lapparent,2006 年;Pai 和 Saleh,2007 年;Savolainen 和 Mannering,2007 年)。Brorsson 等人(1984 年)報告了引擎排量和動力與擺動(前輪顫動和高速編織的無限制振盪)之間的明確關係。此外,與較重車輛的碰撞會導致更嚴重的傷害(Quddus 等人,2002 年;Lin 等人,2003 年;Keng,2005 年;Pai 和 Saleh,2007 年)。
The recent emergence of in-vehicle technologies should be also considered in PTW safety. These technologies refer to systems for collision avoidance, electronic stability control, lane departure warning/lane keeping support, automatic stopping of the vehicle, etc. The aim of such systems is to increase the awareness of PTW drivers of their own location, traffic incidents on the road, anticipated weather conditions, as well as any potentially dangerous situations around (e.g. interactions with the rest of the traffic, obstacles, etc.). Such systems may interact with Infrastructure-based Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to increase information flow and increase safety (Regan, 2004).
近年來車內技術的出現也應被納入機動兩輪車(PTW)安全的考量中。這些技術涉及碰撞避免系統、電子穩定控制、車道偏離警告/車道保持支援、自動停車等系統。這些系統的目的是增加 PTW 駕駛者對自身位置、道路上的交通事故、預期的天氣條件以及周圍任何潛在危險情況(例如與其他交通、障礙物等的互動)的意識。這些系統可能與基於基礎設施的智能交通系統(ITS)互動,以增加信息流並提高安全性(Regan, 2004)。
The research on the effect of in-vehicle technologies and other ITS systems to the PTW safety are still at infancy (Bayly et al., 2006). Passive safety systems, as reflected on vehicle architecture, airbags, leg protectors, etc., as well as active safety systems, which deals with technologies aiming at improving stability control, such as braking systems, traction, electronic suspension, etc., are reviewed in Di Tanna et al. (2007). Braking technologies have been also largely considered. Over-braking and resulting loss of control are major risk factors in PTW accidents (Hurt et al., 1981, ACEM, 2003, Roll et al., 2009). In recent studies, it has been found that anti-blocking systems (ABS) may reduce motorcycle-stopping distances; however, these studies have been conducted in closed test tracks (Green, 2006, Vavryn and Winkelbauer, 2004). In MAIDS project, no meaningful results based on real accidents estimating the preventive effect of ABS brakes on motorcycles may be traced in literature (ACEM, 2003). Other studies have underlined the potential effectiveness of ABS in cases of wheel's block or light PTWs (Lu and Shih, 2005). Recently, Teoh (2011) underlined the inability of anti-blocking systems to mitigate all types of crashes, as well as the inability to deduce safe results due to the small sample of ABS equipped PTWs and the lack of pre-crash information.
關於車載技術及其他智能交通系統對於兩輪車安全的研究仍處於初期階段(Bayly 等人,2006)。被動安全系統,如反映在車輛架構、氣囊、腿部保護器等方面,以及主動安全系統,涉及旨在改善穩定性控制的技術,例如制動系統、牽引力、電子懸掛等,均在 Di Tanna 等人(2007)的研究中進行了評述。制動技術也被廣泛考慮。過度制動和由此導致的失控是兩輪車事故中的主要風險因素(Hurt 等人,1981;ACEM,2003;Roll 等人,2009)。在最近的研究中發現,防鎖死制動系統(ABS)可能減少摩托車的停車距離;然而,這些研究是在封閉的測試賽道上進行的(Green,2006;Vavryn 和 Winkelbauer,2004)。在 MAIDS 項目中,文獻中無法找到基於實際事故估算摩托車 ABS 制動的預防效果的有意義結果(ACEM,2003)。其他研究強調了 ABS 在輪子鎖死或輕型兩輪車情況下的潛在有效性(Lu 和 Shih,2005)。 最近,Teoh(2011)強調了防鎖死系統無法減少所有類型的碰撞,以及由於裝有 ABS 的機動兩輪車樣本量小和缺乏事故前信息,無法推導出安全結果的問題。
Moreover, daytime running lights (DRLs) aiming at addressing the key safety issue of motorcycle conspicuity have been largely considered. Paine et al. (2005) suggested that DRLs have the potential to reduce fatal motorcycle crashes in Australia. Finally, Huth et al. (2012) evaluated the use of curve warning systems via a riding simulator experiment and concluded that these systems may enable an earlier and stronger adaptation of the motorcycle dynamics to the curve than when the riders do not use the system. Although the need to shift the focus of ITS developments onto motorcycles, as well as the market potential of such technologies, have been largely recognized, there are still concerns on the automation of the riding process and its safety implication (Bayly et al., 2006).
此外,針對摩托車顯著性的關鍵安全問題,日間行車燈(DRLs)已被廣泛考慮。Paine 等人(2005)建議,DRLs 有潛力減少澳洲的致命摩托車事故。最後,Huth 等人(2012)通過騎乘模擬器實驗評估了曲線警告系統的使用,並得出結論認為,這些系統可能使摩托車動態對曲線的適應比騎士不使用系統時更早且更強烈。儘管已廣泛認識到需要將智能交通系統(ITS)的發展重點轉移到摩托車上,以及這些技術的市場潛力,但對騎乘過程的自動化及其安全影響仍存在擔憂(Bayly 等人,2006)。

5. Weather conditions related accident risk factors
氣象條件相關的事故風險因素

Intuitively, PTW riding is heavily influenced by the weather. However, literature has recently demonstrated some contradictory results. Weather has been reported to be a less influential factor in 98% of motorcycle accidents comparing to other prevailing factors related to helmet use, type of collision, age and gender, etc. in a research conducted in California (Hurt et al., 1981). In a European and Australian large-scale study, weather made no contribution to accident causation in 92.7% of accident cases (ACEM, 2003, Johnston et al., 2008). Ouellet et al. (2002) conducted on-scene, in-depth accident investigations of 1082 motorcycle crashes in Thailand in 1999 and 2000 report weather factors to be rarely a contributing factor. Riding under fine weather also appears to result in more severe injuries regardless of what control measure was employed (Pai and Saleh, 2007).
直觀來看,機動兩輪車(PTW)騎行受天氣影響甚鉅。然而,近期文獻卻顯示了一些矛盾的結果。在加州進行的一項研究中,與其他主要因素如頭盔使用、碰撞類型、年齡和性別等相比,天氣被報告在 98%的摩托車事故中影響較小(Hurt 等人,1981 年)。在一項涵蓋歐洲和澳洲的大規模研究中,天氣在 92.7%的事故案例中未對事故起因作出貢獻(ACEM,2003 年;Johnston 等人,2008 年)。Ouellet 等人(2002 年)對 1999 年至 2000 年在泰國發生的 1082 起摩托車事故進行了現場深入調查,報告稱天氣因素很少是事故的促成因素。在晴朗天氣下騎行似乎也會導致更嚴重的傷害,無論採取了何種控制措施(Pai 和 Saleh,2007 年)。
The above contradictions with the basic intuition may be understood considering two distinct issues. First, in many countries, riding is mainly a recreation activity, purely influenced by adverse weather. Even PTW users, which use the vehicle as a means of transport on a daily basis, change to other modes (e.g. car, public transport) when they expect bad weather conditions. Second, the PTW is not an all-weather vehicle and it does not share similar accident characteristics like automobiles concerning the effect of weather (Hurt et al., 1981). Finally, both low and high temperatures should be considered as bad weather conditions for riding a PTW, as they both affect comfort and safety.
上述與基本直覺的矛盾,可以從兩個不同的問題來理解。首先,在許多國家,騎乘主要是一種休閒活動,純粹受到惡劣天氣的影響。即使是每天使用該車輛作為交通工具的機動兩輪車(PTW)使用者,也會在預期壞天氣時改用其他交通方式(例如汽車、公共交通)。其次,機動兩輪車不是全天候車輛,其在天氣影響方面的事故特性與汽車不同(Hurt et al., 1981)。最後,騎乘機動兩輪車時,應將低溫和高溫都視為惡劣天氣條件,因為這兩者都會影響舒適性和安全性。

6. Critical appraisal, cautions and limitations
6. 批判性評價、謹慎與限制

The available literature is summarized in Table 1 with respect to the general categorization of the study (behavioral, infrastructure related, weather related or vehicle related), the study area (urban, rural, highway), the type of vehicle (motorcycle, moped or both), the available data (police reports, survey and so on), the modeling approach (regression, principal component analysis and so on) and the identified risk factors.
可用文獻在表 1 中彙總,關於研究的一般分類(行為相關、基礎設施相關、天氣相關或車輛相關)、研究區域(城市、鄉村、高速公路)、車輛類型(摩托車、機踏車或兩者)、可用數據(警方報告、調查等)、建模方法(回歸分析、主成分分析等)以及確定的風險因素。

Table 1. Summary of literature on PTW accident risk factors.
表 1. 摩托車事故風險因素文獻綜述。

Author(s)  作者們Date  日期Category  類別Area  區域Vehicle  車輛Modeling  模型化Data  資料Risk factors  風險因素
Daniello and Gabler  丹尼洛與蓋布勒2011IU/RMCDPRCollisions with roadside objects (guardrail, signage, etc.)
與路邊物體(護欄、標誌等)的碰撞
de Rome et al.  de Rome 等人2011B/VU/RMCRSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Experience, helmet and protective clothing, age, PTW type
經驗、頭盔和防護服、年齡、機動兩輪車類型
Huth et al.  Huth 等人2012IHMCANOVAsimulator  模擬器Curve warning system, reaction time
曲線警告系統,反應時間
Nunn  納恩2011B/IU/RMCRPRCollisions with roadside objects, risky behavior, speed, alcohol and drugs, lighting, age
與路邊物體的碰撞、危險行為、速度、酒精和藥物、照明、年齡
Rosenbloom et al.  Rosenbloom 等人2011BU/RMCANOVASurvey(Q/V)  調查 (Q/V)License, age  許可證,年齡
Teoh  張智霖2011B/VU/RMCDPRAntilock braking systems, age, speed, alcohol
防鎖死煞車系統、年齡、速度、酒精
Chen and Chen  陳與陳2010BU/RMCSEMSurvey(Q)  調查問卷Sensation-seeking and riding experience, perceived enjoyment, concentration, perceived behavioral control, speeding behavior intention actual speeding behavior
尋求刺激與騎乘經驗、感知的享受、專注、感知的行為控制、超速行為意圖與實際超速行病
Elliott  艾略特2010BU/RMCPSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Affective attitude and perceived controllability, self-identity and perceived group norm and group identification
情感態度與感知可控性、自我認同、感知群體規範與群體認同
Haque and Chin  哈克與陳2010IU/RMCRPRCollision type, nighttime, curbs, lane and road type, signalization, passenger onboard, red light cameras
碰撞類型、夜間、路緣、車道與道路類型、信號化、車上乘客、紅燈攝影機
Haque et al.  Haque 等人2010IUMCRPRType of intersection, control, red light camera, exposure
交叉路口類型、控制、紅燈攝影機、曝光
Hosking et al.  Hosking 等人2010BUMCANOVASimulator  模擬器Experience, hazard perception
經驗,危險感知
Ranney et al.  Ranney 等人2010BU/RMCDSurvey(Q)  調查問卷Helmet use, training, age, gender, attitudes, norms, behaviors
頭盔使用、訓練、年齡、性別、態度、規範、行為
Schneider et al.  施耐德等人2010IRMCRPRRadius and length of horizontal curve, shoulder length, average daily traffic
半徑與水平曲線長度、路肩長度、平均日交通量
Wong et al.  黃等人2010BU/RMCSEMSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Age, sensation seeking, amiability and impatience, violations
年齡、尋求刺激、和藹可親及急躁、違規行為
Barsi et al.  Barsi 等人2009B/VU/RPTWDSurvey(Q)  調查問卷Age, engine size  年齡,引擎排量
Broughton et al.  Broughton 等人2009BU/RMCANOVASurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Violation/speeding daytime riding on rural roads
違規/超速於鄉村道路日間行駛
Chen  2009BUMCSEMSurvey(Q)  調查問卷Anxiety, anger, sensation seeking, risky driving attitude
焦慮、憤怒、尋求刺激、冒險駕駛態度
Creaser et al.  Creaser 等。2009BOther  其他MCANCOVASensors  感測器Alcohol impairment, response time, experience
酒精影響、反應時間、經驗
Haque et al.  Haque 等人2009IUMCRPRIntersections, errors, speed, pavement surface, lighting, speed limit, pillion passenger, engine capacity, age
交叉口、錯誤、速度、路面、照明、速限、副騎乘者、引擎容量、年齡
Haworth et al.  Haworth 等人2009BU/RPTWDPRAlcohol involvement, excessive speed, non-use of helmets and unlicensed riding
酒精涉及、超速、未戴安全帽及無照駕駛
Lardelli-Claret et al.  Lardelli-Claret 等人2009BU/RPTWRPRInappropriate or excessive speed, alcohol, age, gender, license, helmet use
不當或過快的速度、酒精、年齡、性別、駕照、佩戴安全帽使用情況
Law et al.  Law 等人2009BU/RMCRPRMotorization, technical, policy and political countermeasures, helmet laws, medical care and technology improvements, quality of political institutions
機動化、技術、政策與政治對策、頭盔法規、醫療護理與技術改進、政治機構的質量
Li et al.  李等。2009I/B  翻譯文字:U/RMCRPRType of area, speed, type of intersection, alignment
區域類型、速度、交叉口類型、配置
Liu et al.  劉等2009BUMCDSimulator  模擬器Experience hazard perception and risk perception
經驗危險感知與風險感知
Pai et al.  白等人2009IUMCRPRCollision type, area type, light conditions, age, gender
碰撞類型、區域類型、光線條件、年齡、性別
Steg and Brussel  史蒂格與布魯塞爾2009BU/RMFSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Speeding violations, attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavior control, age
超速違規、態度、主觀規範和知覺行為控制、年齡
Wanvik  萬維克2009IU/RMRPRRoad lighting, weather, surface conditions
道路照明、天氣、路面狀況
Yeh and Chang  葉和張2009BU/RMCRSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Age, gender, experience, license
年齡、性別、經驗、執照
Crundall et al.  Crundall 等人2008BU/RMCANOVASurvey(Q/V)  調查 (Q/V)Junctions, perceptual and appraisal errors
接點、感知與評價錯誤
Haque et al.  Haque 等人2008IUMCRPRIntersections, control, errors, exposure
交叉點、控制、錯誤、暴露
Li et al.  李等.2008BU/RMCRPR/I  公關/資訊Helmet use, gender, age, engine size, road type, time period, police enforcement
頭盔使用、性別、年齡、引擎大小、道路類型、時間段、警察執法
Majdzadeh et al.  Majdzadeh 等人2008B/I  翻譯文字:U/RMCRSurvey(I)  調查(I)Type of collision, gender, weather conditions, road conditions, age
碰撞類型、性別、天氣條件、道路狀況、年齡
Mayrose  梅羅斯2008BU/RMCDPRHelmet law, helmet use, age, sex, injury severity
頭盔法規、頭盔使用、年齡、性別、傷害嚴重性
Pai and Saleh  派與薩勒赫2008aIUMCRPREngine size, crash type, crash partner, gender, age, exposure, speed limit, control, light conditions, weather
引擎大小、碰撞類型、碰撞對象、性別、年齡、暴露、速限、控制、光線條件、天氣
Pai and Saleh  派與薩勒赫2008bIUMCRPREngine size, crash type, crash partner, gender, age, exposure, speed limit, control, light conditions, weather, overtaking or changing lanes
引擎大小、碰撞類型、碰撞對象、性別、年齡、暴露、速限、控制、光線條件、天氣、超車或變換車道
Chang and Yeh  張與葉2007BUMCRSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Age, gender, violation, negligence of potential risk and vehicle examination
年齡、性別、違規、對潛在風險的忽視及車輛檢查
Clarke et al.  Clarke 等人2007B/I  來源文本:B/I 翻譯文本:U/RMCDPRCollision type, loss of control, curves, conspicuity, age, experience
碰撞類型、失控、曲線、顯著性、年齡、經驗
Elliott et al.  Elliott 等人2007BU/RMCPCASurvey(Q)  調查問卷Age and experience, control errors and speed violations, perceptual traffic errors
年齡與經驗、控制錯誤與速度違規、感知交通錯誤
Gabler  蓋布勒2007IHMCDPRGuardrail crashes, helmet
護欄撞擊,頭盔
Houston  休斯頓2007BU/RMCRPRHelmet, age, speeding, alcohol,
頭盔、年齡、超速、酒精
Njå and Nesvåg  Njå與 Nesvåg2007BU/RPTWIn-depth  深入Survey(I)  調查(I)Speed, gender, age, lack of concentration, social and cultural factors
速度、性別、年齡、注意力不集中、社會及文化因素
Pai and Saleh  派與薩勒赫2007IUMCRPRCollision type, control, engine size, age, speed limit, light condition, gender
碰撞類型、控制、引擎大小、年齡、速限、光線條件、性別
Rathinam et al.  Rathinam 等人2007BU/RMCRSurvey(Q)  調查問卷Aggressive behavior, age  侵略行為,年齡
Savolainen and Mannering  薩沃萊寧和曼寧2007B/IU/RMCRPRCollision type, roadway characteristics, alcohol consumption, helmet use, unsafe speed
碰撞類型、道路特性、飲酒、佩戴安全帽、不安全速度
Dandona et a,.  Dandona 等人。2006B/VU/RPTWDSurvey(I)  調查(一)Drivers licenses, use of a helmet, and condition of vehicles
駕駛執照、佩戴頭盔以及車輛狀況
de Lapparent  德拉帕倫特2006B/I  Source Text: B/I Translated Text: B/IUMCRPRGender, age, type of crash, weather, helmet engine capacity daylight intersection
性別、年齡、事故類型、天氣、頭盔、引擎排量、日間、交叉路口
Ibitoye et al.  Ibitoye 等人2006IOther  其他MCSimulation  模擬Simulated  模擬的Guardrail  護欄
Kyrychenko and McCartt  基里琴科與麥卡特2006BU/RMCRPRHelmet law, age, gender  頭盔法規、年齡、性別
Morris  莫里斯2006B/IU/RMCRPRHelmet law, temperature and precipitation, alcohol, speed limit engine power, age
頭盔法規、溫度與降雨、酒精、速限引擎功率、年齡
Baldi et al.  Baldi 等人2005BU/RMCDSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Program administration, rider education, licensing
計畫管理、騎士教育、執照管理
Harrison and Christie  哈里森與克里斯蒂2005BU/RMCR/C  遙控模型Survey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Riding patterns, age, gender, riding exposure, skill acquisition and learning
騎乘模式、年齡、性別、騎乘暴露、技能獲得與學習
Kasantikul et al.  Kasantikul 等人2005B/IU/RMCDPRAlcohol, control, type of intersection
酒精,控制,交叉口類型
Keng  2005IU/RMCRPRHelmet use, age, gender, weather, lighting, speed limit
頭盔使用、年齡、性別、天氣、照明、速限
Lardelli-Claret et al.  Lardelli-Claret 等人2005BU/RMCRPRAge, sex, nationality, license, alcohol, speeding, helmet use
年齡、性別、國籍、執照、酒精、超速、佩戴安全帽使用情況
Yannis et al.  Yannis 等。2005B/VU/RPTWRPRDriver age, engine size  駕駛者年齡,引擎排量
Goldenbeld et al.  Goldenbeld 等人2004BOther  其他MISurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Training and experience  訓練與經驗
Horswill and Helman  霍斯維爾與赫爾曼2003BU/RPTWMANOVASurvey(Q/V)  調查 (Q/V)Speed, hazard perception skill, sensation seeking, attitudes to riding/driving
速度、危險感知技巧、尋求刺激感、駕駛/騎乘態度
Lin et al.  林等人2003BU/RMCRSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Crash history, exposure, risk-taking level, alcohol, traffic violations, age, experience
碰撞歷史、暴露、冒險程度、酒精、交通違規、年齡、經驗
Norvell and Cummings  諾維爾和康明斯2002BU/RMCRPRHelmet use age, gender, and seat position
頭盔使用的年齡、性別與座位位置
Quddus et al.  Quddus 等人2002IUMCRPRNationality, engine capacity, headlight, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects
國籍、引擎排量、車頭燈、與行人和靜止物體的碰撞
Branas and Knudson  Branas 和 Knudson2001BU/RMCRPRHelmet law, temperature  頭盔法規、溫度
Ferrando et al.  Ferrando 等人2000BUMCRPRHelmet law, age, gender  頭盔法規、年齡、性別
Mullin et al.  Mullin 等人2000BRMCRSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Age, experience  年齡、經驗
Reeder et al.  Reeder 等人1996BU/RMCDSurvey(Q)  調查問卷Age, license, experience, helmet, protective clothing, conspicuity, alcohol, daytime headlight
年齡、執照、經驗、頭盔、防護服、顯著性、酒精、日間頭燈
Shankar and Mannering  尚卡和曼寧1996B/IU/RMCRPREnvironmental factors, roadway conditions, vehicle characteristics, and rider attributes
環境因素、道路條件、車輛特性和駕駛者屬性
Mannering and Grodsky  曼寧和格羅茨基1995B/IU/RMCRSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Exposure speed limit, passing behavior
曝光速度限制,超車行為
Preusser et al.  Preusser 等。1995I/BU/RMCDPRAlcohol and excessive speed, crash type,
酒精與過速,事故類型,
Sodestrom et al.  Sodestrom 等人1993BU/RMCDPRAlcohol use, driving records, and crash culpability
酒精使用、駕駛紀錄與事故責任
Bronsson et al.  Bronsson 等人1984VU/RMCDSurvey(Q)  調查問卷(Q)Wobbling, engine power, age, speeding, road-markings, bumps or pot-holes
搖晃、引擎動力、車齡、超速、道路標線、顛簸或坑洞
Muller  穆勒1984IU/RMCRPRDaytime headlight use  日間行車燈使用
Jonah et al.  喬納等人1981BU/RMCRSurvey(I)  調查(I)Age, exposure, riding skills
年齡、暴露、騎乘技巧
Category: behavioral factors (B), infrastructure related factors (I), weather related factors (W), vehicle-related factors (V).
類別:行為因素(B)、基礎設施相關因素(I)、天氣相關因素(W)、車輛相關因素(V)。
Study area: urban (U), rural (R), other.
研究區域:都市(U)、鄉村(R)、其他。
Vehicle: motorcycle (MC), moped (M), all categories of Power-Two Wheelers (PTW).
車輛:摩托車(MC)、機動腳踏車(M)、所有類別的動力二輪車(PTW)。
Modeling: regression (R), structural, equation model (SEM), descriptive statistics (DS), principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (F), power analysis (P), cluster analysis (C), item analysis (I).
模型化:迴歸(R)、結構方程模型(SEM)、描述性統計(DS)、主成分分析(PCA)、因子分析(F)、功效分析(P)、群集分析(C)、項目分析(I)。
Data: police reports (PR), survey (S), questionnaire (Q), video (V), interview (I).
資料:警察報告(PR)、調查(S)、問卷(Q)、影片(V)、訪談(I)。
From the analysis conducted, it is evident that the behavioral issues in PTW safety have attracted the larger portion of the research. However, there still exist several behavioral issues, such as the traveling patterns and the risk perception of riders with relation to different riding situations that are only qualitatively treated so far and need further research. Toward this direction, detailed data on the microscopic (individual speed, acceleration features, maneuvering as described by steering angle, etc.) or cognitive characteristics (e.g. eye fixation) of riders just before, during and after a critical riding situation seem to be imperative.
從所進行的分析來看,PTW 安全中的行為問題已吸引了大部分的研究關注。然而,仍然存在一些行為問題,例如騎行者在不同騎行情境下的旅行模式和風險感知,到目前為止這些問題僅被定性處理,並需要進一步研究。朝這個方向,騎行者在關鍵騎行情境發生前、期間及之後的微觀(個別速度、加速特性、操控如轉向角等)或認知特徵(例如眼睛注視點)的詳細數據似乎是必要的。
Regarding road infrastructure risk factors, research is limited mainly due to the lack of relevant accident and exposure data (Yannis et al., 2010b). The use of the popular police reports of accidents rarely provides detailed information on the infrastructure setting (curvature change rate or unbalanced ratio of successive radii, pavement conditions, etc.) and its exact specifications that may increase PTW accident likelihood. Furthermore, weather conditions have not yet been systematically treated in relation to PTW accident likelihood; weather is mainly introduced to the modeling PTW accident risk via a qualitative scale (fine, wet, dry, etc.) and not in the form of quantitative indicators with spatio-temporal aspects.
關於道路基礎設施風險因素的研究,主要因缺乏相關的事故和暴露數據而受限(Yannis 等人,2010b)。事故的警察報告雖然普遍,但很少提供有關基礎設施環境(如曲率變化率或連續半徑不平衡比率、路面狀況等)的詳細信息及其確切規格,這些規格可能會增加機動兩輪車事故的可能性。此外,天氣條件尚未在機動兩輪車事故可能性的關聯性中被系統性地處理;在模型中,天氣主要是通過質性等級(晴朗、濕潤、乾燥等)來引入機動兩輪車事故風險,而不是以具有時空特徵的量化指標的形式。
Current research for the identification of critical risk factors in Power-Two-Wheeler Safety has to deal with a number of open issues. Firstly, an important open issue for PTW safety investigation is the lack of exposure data. Utilizing absolute numbers and trends of values may lead to interesting general conclusions on traffic safety, which are however of limited significance due to lack of exposure information (traffic volume and speed, vehicle- and person-kilometers of travel, etc.). Despite some availability of passenger car exposure, data on PTW traffic are very rarely available making thus very difficult the extraction of reliable conclusions on PTW accident risk. Furthermore, the research on PTW safety critical risk factors requires the combined examination of the joint effect of weather, traffic volume and speed parameters and consequently sufficient disaggregation of these data should be aimed. The use of severity indices overcomes the need for exposure data but corresponding results are obviously limited only to accident severity characteristics (Golias and Yannis, 2001).
當前對於電動兩輪車安全中關鍵風險因素的研究必須處理許多未解決的問題。首先,電動兩輪車安全調查的一個重要未解決問題是缺乏暴露數據。僅使用絕對數字和趨勢值可能導致對交通安全的一些有趣的一般結論,但由於缺乏暴露信息(交通量和速度、車輛和人的旅行公里數等),這些結論的意義有限。儘管有一些乘用車暴露數據可用,但有關電動兩輪車交通的數據非常罕見,因此很難提取有關電動兩輪車事故風險的可靠結論。此外,研究電動兩輪車安全的關鍵風險因素需要綜合考慮天氣、交通量和速度參數的聯合效應,因此應該致力於這些數據的充分細分。使用嚴重性指數可以克服對暴露數據的需求,但相應的結果顯然僅限於事故嚴重性特徵(Golias 與 Yannis,2001)。
The second open issue refers to the need for different analyses for the different PTW traffic environments. Results of PTW risk factors analysis may vary considerably for inside and outside urban areas traffic, for heavy and light PTW traffic, for commuters and recreational riders with varying impact on PTW accident frequency, severity and risk. These traffic environment variations are more important for the PTW interaction with the other road users. This need for segmentation of PTW risk analysis is very critical for the identification of the countermeasures, which should be suitable for each traffic environment.
第二個公開問題涉及到需要針對不同的機動兩輪車(PTW)交通環境進行不同的分析。機動兩輪車風險因素分析的結果可能會因城市內外交通、重型與輕型機動兩輪車交通、通勤者與休閒騎士的不同而有顯著差異,這些差異對機動兩輪車事故的頻率、嚴重性和風險均有不同的影響。這些交通環境的變化對機動兩輪車與其他道路使用者的互動更為重要。這種對機動兩輪車風險分析的細分需求對於確定適合每種交通環境的對策至關重要。
Another open issue is the need to develop a more holistic view of the PTW accident investigation that will include the entire accident setting characteristics in order to clearly identify more clearly the critical risk factors, as well as the manner PTW drivers may react to the emergence of a critical incident. A serious weakness in most research efforts on PTW risk factors refers to the lack of identifying the characteristics of the accident setting. Prior to studying the critical risk factors, it is of significance to define the PTW accident configurations. Current practice stresses that some accident scenarios, such as losing control on corners and curves with excess speed, PTW at intersection having the right of way, right of way violations most commonly caused by a road user other than the PTW, emergency braking on a straight road and so on, are more relevant in frequency and severity (RIDER, 2005, TRACE, 2008). Further investigating these settings could lead to a more efficient manner of distinguishing and ranking the importance of critical factors of PTW accident risk.
另一個尚未解決的問題是需要發展一種更全面的機動兩輪車事故調查觀點,這將包括整個事故環境特徵,以便更清楚地確定關鍵風險因素,以及機動兩輪車駕駛員可能對重大事件的出現作出的反應方式。大多數關於機動兩輪車風險因素的研究努力的一個嚴重弱點是未能識別事故環境的特徵。在研究關鍵風險因素之前,定義機動兩輪車事故配置是非常重要的。目前的實踐強調,某些事故情境,如在轉彎和曲線上因速度過快失控、在交叉路口擁有行駛權的機動兩輪車、最常由非機動兩輪車道路使用者引起的行駛權違規、在直路上緊急剎車等,在頻率和嚴重性上更為相關(RIDER, 2005, TRACE, 2008)。進一步調查這些設置可能導致更有效地區分和排列機動兩輪車事故風險的關鍵因素的重要性。
An additional open issue refers to data availability and quality. Several studies have shown that police reports data, which are the basis for safety research in most countries, may be incomplete and biased (Amoros et al., 2006). Moreover, even if police reports are accurate, they have limited representational power in terms of the entire picture of risk (Njå and Nesvåg, 2007). The quality of most studies, especially the behavioral ones, is linked to the availability of data on the riding parameters. Until recently, PTW accident risk has been largely studied through macroscopic and in-depth data analyses (Thomas et al., 2005, Yannis et al., 2010a), as well as through behavior analyses such as questionnaire based surveys, guided discussions, video-based methods (Savolainen and Mannering, 2007, Haque et al., 2010). These analyses are inherently destined to qualitatively assess the factors that increase accident risk or causalities involved mainly from a general social representation point of view, without being able to extract accurate and detailed information on how road users may interact with PTWs and how PTWs may behave on the road and especially before, during and after critical situations.
另一個尚未解決的問題涉及數據的可用性和質量。多項研究已經顯示,警方報告數據,這是大多數國家安全研究的基礎,可能是不完整且有偏見的(Amoros 等人,2006 年)。此外,即使警方報告是準確的,它們在代表整體風險圖景方面的能力也是有限的(Njå 和 Nesvåg,2007 年)。大多數研究的質量,特別是行為研究,與騎行參數數據的可用性息息相關。直到最近,機動兩輪車事故風險主要是通過宏觀和深入的數據分析來研究的(Thomas 等人,2005 年,Yannis 等人,2010a 年),以及通過行為分析,如基於問卷的調查、引導討論、基於視頻的方法(Savolainen 和 Mannering,2007 年,Haque 等人,2010 年)。 這些分析本質上旨在從一般社會表徵的角度,定性評估增加事故風險或主要涉及的因素,無法提取有關道路使用者如何與機動兩輪車互動,以及機動兩輪車在道路上的行為,特別是在關鍵情況發生前、中、後的準確和詳細信息。
The recent shift to more efficient ways of PTW driving data collection by developing a least intrusive – naturalistic – environment employing advanced sensor technologies has provided a significant number of aspects of automobile drivers’ or PTW drivers’ behavior and their interactions (Regan et al., 2006, NHTSA, 2006, FESTA, 2008, Baldanzini et al., 2009, Creaser et al., 2009). However, special attention should be given to the extent of PTW instrumentation not to exceed certain limits and compromise the validity of experiments, as well as the maneuverability of vehicles. Furthermore, the link between PTW driver behavior and accident risk (possibly through incidents and near misses investigation) requires a considerable research effort before sound conclusions could be drawn.
近期轉向以更有效率的方式收集 PTW 駕駛數據,通過開發最少干擾的自然環境並使用先進的感測技術,已為汽車駕駛者或 PTW 駕駛者的行為及其互動提供了大量的面向(Regan 等人,2006 年;NHTSA,2006 年;FESTA,2008 年;Baldanzini 等人,2009 年;Creaser 等人,2009 年)。然而,應特別注意 PTW 儀器裝置的範圍不要超過特定限制,以免影響實驗的有效性及車輛的機動性。此外,PTW 駕駛行為與事故風險之間的聯繫(可能透過事件和近失調查)需要大量的研究工作,才能得出可靠的結論。
As for the methods implemented to PTW accident risk modeling, classical statistical modeling seems to dominate the specific research field. Ordered probability models (Quddus et al., 2002) and unordered probability models (multinomial and nested logit) (Shankar and Mannering, 1996, Savolainen and Mannering, 2007), or structural equation modeling (Chen, 2009, Wong et al., 2010, Chen and Chen, 2011) have been systematically applied to PTW accident studies. The lack of applications of computational intelligence methods, such as Bayesian methods, neural networks and so on, is more than evident. This may be attributed to the fact that PTW accident risk studies are more focused on explaining the phenomena investigated rather than on providing an efficient – in terms of accuracy and development time – representation of the underlying properties of the data. In this framework statistics seem more suitable than popular computational intelligence models (Karlaftis and Vlahogianni, 2011). However, in view of the in-vehicle instrumentation and novel data collection techniques, researchers should consider using advanced computation intelligence approaches to deal with the computational and inferential implications of working with large datasets that may often contain noise or missing values and great deal of uncertainty.
在 PTW 事故風險模型的方法實施方面,傳統統計建模似乎主導了這一特定研究領域。有序概率模型(Quddus 等,2002 年)和無序概率模型(多項式和嵌套羅吉特模型)(Shankar 和 Mannering,1996 年,Savolainen 和 Mannering,2007 年),或結構方程模型(Chen,2009 年,Wong 等,2010 年,Chen 和 Chen,2011 年)已被系統地應用於 PTW 事故研究。缺乏應用計算智能方法,如貝葉斯方法、神經網絡等,是非常明顯的。這可能是因為 PTW 事故風險研究更注重解釋所調查的現象,而不是提供一種有效的——在準確性和開發時間方面——數據底層屬性的表徵。在這一框架下,統計學似乎比流行的計算智能模型更合適(Karlaftis 和 Vlahogianni,2011 年)。 然而,考慮到車載儀器設備和新穎的數據收集技術,研究人員應該考慮使用先進的計算智能方法來處理與大數據集工作相關的計算和推理問題,這些數據集往往可能包含噪聲或缺失值以及大量的不確定性。
Furthermore, an open issue to be tackled within PTW accident modeling is risk identification and quantification. Njå and Nesvåg (2007) underline that risk refers to anticipated actions; “it is contextual and based on several assumptions”. Most times, what is being identified is the perception of risk of the one who analyzes the data and not the actual risk. Risk is difficult to be identified and modeled because it encompasses not only measurable parameters but also the social and cultural representations of the rider as reflected on their riding behavior. The last may be a reason for questioning the generalization power of PTW accident risk models.
此外,PTW 事故模型中待解決的一個公開問題是風險的識別和量化。Njå和 Nesvåg(2007)強調風險指的是預期的行為;“它是情境性的,基於若干假設”。大多數情況下,所識別的是分析數據者對風險的感知,而非實際風險。風險難以識別和建模,因為它不僅包括可衡量的參數,還包括反映在騎行行為上的騎士的社會和文化表徵。最後一點可能是質疑 PTW 事故風險模型泛化能力的原因。

7. Conclusion  結論

PTW drivers are among the most vulnerable road users encompassing an increased level of risk during critical driving situations, as a result of the nature of their traffic and their interaction with the other road users. In this paper, literature on PTW accidents was reviewed and a synthesis of critical risk factors of PTW safety is proposed with respect to behavioral, infrastructure, vehicle and weather parameters. Behavioral factors concern PTW drivers’ attitudes and driving patterns, errors and violations, conspicuity and perception of automobile drivers for PTWs, age, gender and experience, education and learning, fatigue, alcohol and other impairments and personal safety equipment and apparel. Road infrastructure related PTW risk factors refer to the type of road network, the road geometry and roadside installations, lighting and visibility, type of collision, junction type and pavement surface conditions. Vehicle related factors concern engine size, PTW and opponent vehicle size, in-vehicle technologies and day-time running lights and weather related factors concern temperature and precipitation.
PTW 駕駛者是最容易受到傷害的道路使用者之一,由於其交通性質及與其他道路使用者的互動,他們在關鍵駕駛情況下面臨較高的風險。本文回顧了有關 PTW 事故的文獻,並提出了一個關於 PTW 安全的關鍵風險因素的綜合分析,涉及行為、基礎設施、車輛和天氣參數。行為因素涉及 PTW 駕駛者的態度和駕駛模式、錯誤和違規行為、汽車駕駛者對 PTW 的顯著性和感知、年齡、性別和經驗、教育和學習、疲勞、酒精和其他障礙以及個人安全裝備和服裝。道路基礎設施相關的 PTW 風險因素涉及道路網絡類型、道路幾何和路邊設施、照明和能見度、碰撞類型、交叉口類型和路面狀況。車輛相關因素涉及引擎大小、PTW 和對手車輛大小、車內技術和日間行車燈;天氣相關因素則涉及溫度和降水量。
Several critical risk factors are revealed with different levels of influence to PTW frequency, risk and severity. A broad classification based on the magnitude and the need for further research for each risk factor is attempted as presented in Table 1. This synthesis of PTW risk factors revealed a number of current challenges, like the need for PTW exposure data and for separate examination of PTW risk factors in the various traffic environments, the need to develop a more holistic view of the PTW accident that will include the entire accident setting characteristics, the importance of accident configurations and the methods implemented to model risk and exposure. Further, discussion was established on the accident, exposure and behavioral data availability and quality, as well as the advantages and limitations of operating instrumented PTWs in order to collect, process and analyze real-time high-resolution data.
數個關鍵風險因素被揭示出來,對於機動兩輪車(PTW)的頻率、風險和嚴重性具有不同程度的影響。根據每個風險因素的影響大小及進一步研究的需求,進行了一個廣泛的分類,如表 1 所示。這種對 PTW 風險因素的綜合分析揭示了許多當前的挑戰,例如需要 PTW 暴露數據,需要在不同交通環境中分別檢查 PTW 風險因素,需要開發一種更全面的 PTW 事故觀點,將包括整個事故環境的特徵,事故配置的重要性以及實施的風險和暴露模型方法。此外,就事故、暴露和行為數據的可用性和質量進行了討論,以及使用儀器化 PTW 收集、處理和分析實時高解析度數據的優勢和限制。

References

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