First, tariffs came for financial markets. Now, they’re coming for consumer markets.
關稅首先衝擊了金融市場。現在，它們正衝擊著消費市場。

To prepare for a slowdown of global trade, US retailers have spent months stocking up, building a massive inventory of products. It’s all in fear of the ultimate retail boogeyman: empty shelves. Whether the strategy pays off comes down to the resiliency of the US consumer.
為了應對全球貿易放緩，美國零售商花費數月囤積商品，建立龐大的庫存。這一切都是出於對零售業終極噩夢——空貨架——的恐懼。這項策略能否奏效，取決於美國消費者的韌性。

Supply Chain of Command

Retail companies are facing two key unknowns amid the trade war. The first, obviously, is the extent to which tariffs will be implemented and for how long. Fortunately, there was an obvious short-term solution: frontloading shipments ahead of tariffs. Through March, total imports into the Port of Long Beach, one of the busiest entries to the US, climbed a colossal 28%, while shipments into New Jersey and New York were up roughly 9% each. In its most recent earnings call, Target said its inventories were up more than 7% year-over-year, while Walmart’s were up nearly 3%.
在貿易戰中，零售公司面臨兩個關鍵未知數。第一個顯然是關稅實施的程度和持續時間。幸運的是，有一個明顯的短期解決方案：在關稅生效前提前進貨。截至三月，進入美國最繁忙的港口之一——長灘港的總進口量飆升了巨大的 28%，而新澤西州和紐約州的進口量各約增長了 9%。在最近的財報電話會議中，Target 表示其庫存同比增長了 7% 以上，而沃爾瑪的庫存也增長了近 3%。

But building up inventory to pre-empt an import drought is a strategy that may be more of a tightrope walk than it seems. And successfully pulling off the maneuver comes down to the second unknown: the US consumer. If big retailers miscalculate demand, they could end up instead with a glut of supply — an outcome that experts recently told Barron’s may be just as bad for the bottom line:
然而，為了預防進口枯竭而建立庫存的策略，可能比看起來更像是在走鋼絲。而能否成功執行這項策略，取決於第二個未知數：美國消費者。如果大型零售商誤判需求，反而可能導致供應過剩——正如專家最近告訴《巴隆週刊》的，這種結果對利潤的影響可能一樣糟糕：

• The retail math is simple: Shortages can eat away at consumer confidence and force retailers to overpay to restock — though a healthy amount of scarcity can leave some wiggle room for retailers to maintain or raise prices without crimping demand. On the other hand, if inventories prove too big just as consumers stop spending, retailers could be forced to offer products at a discount to move product.
  零售業的算數很簡單：短缺會侵蝕消費者信心，並迫使零售商支付更高價格補貨——儘管適度的稀缺性可以讓零售商在不抑制需求的情況下維持或提高價格，留下一些操作空間。另一方面，如果庫存過大，恰逢消費者停止消費，零售商可能被迫打折銷售以出清商品。
• Unfortunately for retailers, signs are already pointing to the worst-case scenario: On Friday, the University of Michigan released its latest consumer confidence report, which showed the steepest three-month drop in consumer confidence since 1990. Meanwhile, the most recent Business Trends & Outlook Survey from the US Census Bureau shows a surge in firms preparing for layoffs in the future (and a jobs report from the US Labor Department due Friday could show whether the layoffs have already begun).
  對零售商不利的是，跡象已經指向最糟情況：週五，密西根大學發布了最新的消費者信心報告，顯示消費者信心出現自 1990 年以來最嚴峻的三個月跌幅。同時，美國人口普查局最新的企業趨勢與展望調查顯示，為未來裁員做準備的公司激增（而美國勞工部將於週五發布的就業報告可能顯示裁員是否已經開始）。

Between a Rock and an Empty Place: John Shea, CEO of e-commerce consultancy firm Momentum Commerce told the Financial Times that a “double whammy” is coming: “We’re seeing evidence that consumers are starting to trade down . . . while at the same prices are creeping up.” That only further complicates the push-and-pull tension retailers are feeling between frontloading inventory and overstocking amid a spending slowdown. “[Retailers] have to make a decision as to whether it is worthwhile importing products from China to put on the shelves, because the prices might need to go up by so much that actually no consumer would really be interested,” GlobalData retail analyst Neil Saunders recently told NBC News. “You might as well just say, ‘Forget it, we just won’t stock that product.’ That obviously does leave gaps on the shelf.”
進退兩難：電子商務諮詢公司 Momentum Commerce 的執行長 John Shea 告訴《金融時報》，一場「雙重打擊」即將到來：「我們看到有證據顯示消費者開始降級消費......同時價格卻在悄悄上漲。」這只會進一步複雜化零售商在經濟放緩時期，面臨提前進貨與庫存過剩之間的拉鋸戰。「零售商必須決定是否值得從中國進口商品上架，因為價格可能需要上漲太多，以至於沒有消費者會真正感興趣，」GlobalData 零售分析師 Neil Saunders 最近告訴 NBC 新聞。「你不如就說，『算了，我們就是不賣那款商品。』這顯然會在貨架上留下空缺。」

Big Blue is doubling down on red, white, and blue.
IBM 正在加強在美國的投入。

IBM is booting up its domestic production, setting aside $150 billion to make computers in the US over the next five years. The investment is the latest in a string of similar pledges, as tech companies react to President Trump’s tariff threats. Apple and Nvidia both said they’d spend $500 billion on domestic manufacturing over the next four years, and Nvidia said it’ll produce all of its AI supercomputers in the US.
IBM 正在啟動其國內生產，計劃在未來五年內投資 1,500 億美元在美國製造電腦。這項投資是繼一系列類似承諾後的最新一例，反映出科技公司對川普總統關稅威脅的反應。蘋果和輝達都表示，未來四年將在美國本土製造業投資 5,000 億美元，輝達更說將在美國生產所有的人工智慧超級電腦。

114 Years Young

Founded over a century ago, IBM’s main business has shifted over time. The company was always involved in making data-processing machines, and early on, that meant automated punch-card counters. Later, it became computers.
IBM 創立於一個多世紀前，其主要業務隨時間推移而不斷轉變。該公司一直致力於製造數據處理機器，早期是指自動打孔卡計數器，後來則變成了電腦。

IBM was the No. 1 computer-maker globally in the 1960s, producing 70% of the world’s supply. It specialized in mainframes, hulking pieces of equipment used by businesses for handling large data loads. Though IBM was positioned to dominate the personal-computer market, and briefly did, it exited the PC biz in the early 2000s after losing market share to competitors like Apple.
在 1960 年代，IBM 是全球第一大電腦製造商，生產全球 70%的電腦。它專精於大型主機，這是一種體積龐大的設備，企業用來處理大量資料。儘管 IBM 本來有機會主導個人電腦市場，也確實曾短暫做到，但在市佔率輸給蘋果等競爭對手之後，它在 2000 年代初期退出了個人電腦業務。

Since then, IBM has gone back to its roots serving businesses, but it’s also looking to the future.
從那時起，IBM 已經回歸到其服務企業的本業，但同時也放眼未來。

• IBM’s $150 billion investment includes $30 billion it said it’ll set aside for making mainframes and quantum computers. The tech giant says it operates the world’s largest fleet of quantum computing systems — advanced devices that promise performance thousands of times faster than traditional computers. Critics, however, aren’t confident about when quantum computing will be practical for companies to use.
  IBM 投入 1500 億美元，其中 300 億美元將專門用於製造主機（大型電腦）和量子電腦。這家科技巨頭表示，他們營運著全球數量最多的量子運算系統，這些是先進的設備，據稱運算速度可比傳統電腦快上數千倍。然而，批評者對於量子運算何時能真正實用並供企業使用，抱持著不確定態度。
• While quantum is still relatively nascent, IBM is also bringing its old school mainframes into the 21st century. The company recently announced a new mainframe that will support AI capabilities.
  儘管量子運算仍相對處於萌芽階段，IBM 也正在將其老式大型電腦帶入 21 世紀。該公司最近宣布了一款新的大型電腦，將支援 AI 功能。

Say it Loud: Tech companies are actively promoting their planned investments into domestic production, and that could be on purpose to get in Trump’s good graces. POTUS has rolled out high tariffs that could jack up the prices of imported materials needed to produce tech products, but he has also been making exemptions that include semiconductor chips, smartphones, and computers. Bloomberg reports that many tech companies’ announcements are in line with what they already planned to spend before Trump was elected — they may simply be more inclined to talk about it now.
大聲說出來：科技公司正積極推廣其計劃在國內生產的投資，這可能是為了討好川普。美國總統推出了高關稅，這可能會大幅提高生產科技產品所需的進口材料價格，但他同時也一直在實施豁免，其中包括半導體晶片、智慧型手機和電腦。《彭博社》報導，許多科技公司的公告與其在川普當選前已計劃支出的內容一致 — 他們現在可能只是更樂意談論此事。

President Trump once again called on Canada to become the “51st state” as America’s neighbor to the north held a federal election Monday, perhaps hinting at a craving for poutine in addition to his beloved Big Macs.
在加拿大（美國的北方鄰國）於週一舉行聯邦大選之際，川普總統再次呼籲加拿大成為「第 51 州」，或許也暗示著，除了他最愛的大麥克，他也想吃普丁。

Canadians opted for a firm but polite no. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party was reelected after the former central banker promised he will “dramatically reduce” the country’s reliance on the United States, though appeared on track to fall just short of an outright majority in the House of Commons.
加拿大人做出了堅定但溫和的選擇。總理馬克·卡尼（Mark Carney）領導的自由黨再度當選，這位曾擔任央行行長的總理先前承諾，他將「大幅減少」加拿大對美國的依賴；不過，他領導的政黨在眾議院似乎無法獲得絕對多數席次。

To the Victor Go the Oils

Canada was left off of the now-famous tariff chart that Trump held up in the Rose Garden earlier this month, with goods exempted under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. But its automobile, aluminum and steel exports to the US are now subject to a 25% levy while Carney promised to meet Washington’s trade war with a hard-nosed response — or “elbows up” as he put it, borrowing the language of hockey.
加拿大並未列在川普本月稍早在玫瑰園展示的那張如今頗為出名的關稅圖表上，根據《美墨加協定》，其商品獲得豁免。但加拿大出口至美國的汽車、鋁和鋼鐵，目前則須課徵 25%關稅，同時，卡尼（Carney）誓言對華府的貿易戰採取強硬回應，他引用冰球術語，稱之為「架起手肘」（“elbows up”）。

The former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, who was sworn in last month before calling a snap election, said on the campaign trail that the “old relationship” between the US and Canada is “over.” That old relationship, as it happens, has left Canada massively exposed to a trade war, with 75% of its exports sent to the US. Last month, the government launched a C$5 billion ($3.6 billion) program to help exporters find new markets. Among its potential expanded trading partners are friends and foes:
上個月宣誓就職、隨後宣布提前大選的前加拿大和英格蘭銀行總裁，在競選期間表示，美國和加拿大之間的「舊關係」已經「結束」。而這種舊關係，恰好讓加拿大對貿易戰的衝擊極度脆弱，其 75%的出口都銷往美國。上個月，政府啟動了一項價值 50 億加元（約合 36 億美元）的計畫，旨在協助出口商尋找新市場。其潛在的擴大貿易夥伴，包括盟友與對手：

• The EU and Canada locked into their own free trade agreement in 2017, and bilateral trade has soared 65% since, according to the European Commission. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, after a call with Carney earlier this month, that they discussed “open and predictable trade” as well as the EU’s “enhanced cooperation” with the members of the CPTPP trade agreement that includes Canada, the UK, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, and Chile.
  歐盟與加拿大於 2017 年簽署了雙方的自由貿易協定。根據歐盟執委會的資料，自那以來，雙邊貿易量已飆升了 65%。歐盟執委會主席馮德萊恩（Ursula von der Leyen）表示，在本月初與卡尼（Carney）通話後，雙方討論了「開放且可預測的貿易」，以及歐盟與「跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定」（CPTPP）成員國的「加強合作」。該協定的成員國包括加拿大、英國、澳洲、日本、越南、馬來西亞、墨西哥和智利。
• While Carney has cautioned that China is Canada’s “largest geopolitical threat,” it is also Canada’s second-largest trading partner and increasingly interested in Canadian oil amid its own trade war with the US. China ramped up its crude imports from Vancouver in March to a record 7.3 million barrels, according to Vortexa data obtained by Bloomberg, as it slashed oil purchases from the US by 90%.
  儘管卡尼曾警告中國是加拿大「最大的地緣政治威脅」，但中國同時也是加拿大第二大貿易夥伴，並且在與美國的貿易戰之際，對加拿大石油的興趣日益增加。根據彭博社取得的 Vortexa 數據顯示，中國在三月份大幅增加從溫哥華進口的石油至創紀錄的 730 萬桶，同時將從美國購買的石油削減了 90%。

A record 12.5 million metric tons of crude oil was exported from Vancouver last year, a 527% increase thanks to the opening of a significant new pipeline project. Since last May, more than half of crude leaving Vancouver has gone to Asia, which previously received only a small fraction.
溫哥華去年出口的原油創下新紀錄，達到 1,250 萬公噸，相較於過去大幅成長了 527%。這主要歸功於一個重要新輸油管專案的啟用。自去年五月以來，從溫哥華出口的原油中，有超過一半流向亞洲，而過去，亞洲只接收其中一小部分。

Resourcefulness: A worst-case scenario — a prolonged trade war between the US and Canada including 25% tariffs on Canadian imports — would damage the US economy to the tune of 1.9% of GDP by 2030, a Deloitte analysis found last month. Much of that comes down to the country’s vast resource economy: Canada is the US’ biggest foreign supplier of crude, the source of roughly 60% of its imports. It’s also the US’ top source of mineral and aluminum imports (the latter of which has been hit with a 25% levy, leading to some aluminum already diverting to Europe amid forecasts that the tariff will raise prices in the US more than anywhere else). Carney, meanwhile, suggested last week that he’s in no rush to make a trade deal with Trump, stating that plans to cut interprovincial trade barriers and kick off housing and resource developments will stimulate the domestic economy and offer “leverage in the negotiation.”
資源優勢：上個月勤業眾信（Deloitte）的一份分析報告發現，在最糟情況下——包括對加拿大進口商品加徵 25%關稅的美加長期貿易戰——將導致美國經濟到 2030 年損失 GDP 的 1.9%。這很大程度上歸因於加拿大龐大的資源經濟：加拿大是美國最大的外國原油供應國，佔美國原油進口量的約 60%。加拿大也是美國主要的礦產和鋁進口來源（後者已被加徵 25%關稅，導致部分鋁已轉運至歐洲；同時，有預測認為這項關稅將使美國的鋁價漲幅超過其他任何地方）。與此同時，卡尼上週表示他不急於與川普達成貿易協議，指出削減省際貿易壁壘以及啟動住房和資源開發的計畫將刺激國內經濟，並在談判中提供「籌碼」。