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The Year Ahead for Markets - 2024
市场未来一年 - 2024 年

DEC 22, 2023 • 76 Min Read
2023 年 12 月 22 日 - 76 分钟阅读

Jason Pagoulatos + 3 others
Jason Pagoulatos + 3 其他
Kevin Kelly, CFA
Priyansh Patel
Michael Rinko
Jason Pagoulatos

The authors of this report may personally hold material positions in BTC, ETL, SOL, AVAX, OP, ARB, INJ, $COIN, JTO, STX . The authors have not purchased or sold any token for which the authors had material non-public information while researching or drafting this report. These disclosures are made consistent with Delphi’s commitment to transparency and should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase or sell any token, or to use any protocol. The contents of each of these reports reflects the opinions of the respective authors of the given report and are presented for informational purposes only. Nothing contained in these reports is, and should not be construed to be, investment advice....
本报告作者个人可能持有 BTC、ETL、SOL、AVAX、OP、ARB、I...

In addition to the disclosures provided for each report, our affiliated business, Delphi Ventures, may have investments in assets or protocols identified in this report. Please see here for Ventures’ investment disclosures. These disclosures are solely the responsibility of Delphi Ventures.

Introduction — Oh, How Far We’ve Come
导言 - 哦,我们走了多远

Exactly one year ago, we published our last Markets Year Ahead report — and so much has changed that it’s hard to know where to start.
整整一年前,我们发布了上一份《未来市场年》报告--变化之大,让人不知从何说起。

This time last year, everything was down. Risk sentiment was in the gutter. Stocks were coming off their worst year since 2008, the crypto market was in shambles, BTC was down over 75% from its prior highs, and many crypto assets were hurting even worse. Global central banks were on a one-way rate-fueled warpath trying to slay inflation, financial conditions had tightened, and many saw little end in sight.
去年这个时候,一切都在下滑。风险情绪一落千丈。股票经历了自 2008 年以来最糟糕的一年,加密货币市场一片混乱,BTC 从之前的高点下跌了 75% 以上,许多加密货币资产受到的伤害甚至更严重。全球央行都在单向加息,试图扼杀通胀,金融环境已经收紧,许多人看不到尽头。

Then 2023 came along and flipped everything on its head. It truly was a non-stop action-packed year for macro lovers and crypto market enjoyers alike.
然后,2023 年的到来颠覆了一切。对于宏观爱好者和加密货币市场爱好者来说,这确实是马不停蹄的一年。

We saw — what appears to be — the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle. We’ve seen liquidity conditions improve considerably, with more support likely coming down the pike. We’ve seen risk appetite finally start to make a come back, as markets continue to defy the skeptics.
我们看到,美联储的紧缩周期似乎已经结束。我们看到流动性条件显著改善,更多的支持可能即将到来。我们看到风险偏好终于开始回升,市场继续蔑视怀疑论者。

Two years of continuous self-inflicted wounds in the crypto industry finally appears to be nearing its end (knock on wood), with the worst one of all — FTX’s infamous collapse — largely in the rearview.
两年来,加密货币行业持续不断的自残似乎终于接近尾声(敲敲木头),其中最严重的一次--FTX 声名狼藉的倒闭--已基本成为过去。

The crypto industry has even gone to battle with rogue politicians and regulators as Operation Chokepoint threatened to curtail crypto innovation and advancement (jury is out on this one but we’re still here).
由于 "窒息点行动"(Operation Chokepoint)威胁要遏制加密货币的创新和发展,加密货币行业甚至与流氓政客和监管机构展开了斗争(虽然还没有定论,但我们还在这里)。

On top of that, one of the industry’s greatest regulatory overhangs — the whole outstanding Binance-DOJ situation — has recently taken steps towards being resolved, lifting yet another veil of uncertainty.
此外,该行业最大的监管悬案之一--Binance 和司法部之间的悬而未决的问题--最近也朝着解决的方向迈出了一步,揭开了另一层不确定的面纱。

Throughout it all, crypto markets have displayed staggering resolve, defying expectations and rising to levels many crypto enthusiasts weren’t expecting to see for some time.
在这一切过程中,加密货币市场表现出了惊人的决心,打破了人们的预期,并上升到了许多加密货币爱好者在一段时间内都没有想到的水平。

All the mixings needed to make a delicious cocktail for crypto markets are coming together, and things are really starting to heat up now.
为加密货币市场调制一杯美味鸡尾酒所需的所有调料正在汇聚一堂,现在情况真的开始升温了。

With macro headwinds transitioning into cyclical tailwinds, and regulatory concerns abating, 2024 could shape up to be one of the most pivotal years for crypto yet.
随着宏观逆风逐渐转变为周期性顺风,以及监管担忧的减弱,2024 年可能会成为加密货币最关键的年份之一。

Without further ado, let’s dive into the key themes we’re tracking for the Year Ahead.
话不多说,让我们深入探讨我们未来一年要跟踪的关键主题。

For those who’ve been following our Markets research this year, some of these topics and themes will be familiar. We’ve discussed many of them in detail in some of our prior reports, which complement the commentary and analysis found in this piece. We’ve provided links to many of these throughout the report for those seeking additional context.
对于那些今年一直关注我们《市场》研究的人来说,其中一些话题和主题可能并不陌生。我们在之前的一些报告中详细讨论了其中的许多问题,这些报告对本文中的评论和分析起到了补充作用。我们在报告中提供了许多相关链接,以方便读者了解更多信息。

Key Theme #1 : Liquidity Tailwinds & Crypto Cycles
关键主题 1:流动性尾风与加密货币周期

Risk Back In Vogue
风险重回时尚

Risk assets have been fighting cynics all year. Heading into 2023, many were calling for another tough year as inflation, rate hikes, and rumblings of a hard landing threatened to cap any risk rally. Consequently, investors spent much of this year broadly underweight risk.
风险资产整年都在与冷嘲热讽作斗争。进入 2023 年,许多人都认为今年又将是艰难的一年,因为通胀、加息和硬着陆的传言都有可能阻碍任何风险反弹。因此,今年大部分时间投资者普遍看淡风险。

What most people didn’t anticipate was a rebound in global liquidity, the bottom of which coincided with peak investor pessimism late last year.
大多数人没有预料到的是全球流动性的反弹,其底部与去年年底投资者悲观情绪的顶峰相吻合。

And that turnaround sparked a banner year for those brave enough to venture out the risk curve.
对于那些敢于冒险的人来说,这一转折引发了今年的辉煌。

We held a more optimistic view coming into 2023.
进入 2023 年,我们的看法更加乐观。

In last year’s report, we likened 2022 to ”The Great Reset for Crypto, making way for a period of accumulation in 2023 that would “set the stage for the next bull cycle”.
在去年的报告中,我们将 2022 年比作 "加密货币的大重置",为 2023 年的积累期铺平道路,"为下一轮牛市周期做好准备"。

Our base case was “a renewed uptrend as early as mid-2023, but that the bulk of the move will occur in 2024-2025 as risk appetite and speculation return in full force.”
我们的基本假设是 "早在 2023 年年中就会重现升势,但随着风险偏好和投机行为的全面回归,大部分升势将出现在 2024-2025 年"。

Many saw crypto’s latest rebound as nothing more than another bear market rally. However, our work has suggested the opposite, which is why we started getting even more vocal in recent months that a new cycle was upon us.
许多人认为,加密货币最近的反弹不过是又一次熊市反弹。然而,我们的工作表明情况恰恰相反,这就是为什么我们在最近几个月开始更加强烈地认为新一轮周期即将到来。

“We believe the Global Liquidity Narrative will continue to persist throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, likely reversing many of the headwinds faced by asset markets over the last 12-18 months. As these catalysts continue to stack, we know that smaller, more market-specific narratives will continue to manifest and take shape.” — Catalysts Stacking Up – Will Narratives Drive Fundamentals? (July 2023)
"我们认为,全球流动性叙事将在 2023 年剩余时间内持续到 2024 年,可能会扭转资产市场在过去 12-18 个月中面临的许多不利因素。随着这些催化剂的不断叠加,我们知道,规模更小、更具市场针对性的叙事将继续显现和成形。- 催化剂叠加--叙事将推动基本面?(2023 年 7 月)

As the rally progressed, many continued publicly chastising risk assets despite evidence that the worst was already behind us. This really has been one of the most hated bull markets in memory.
随着涨势的推进,尽管有证据表明最糟糕的情况已经过去,但许多人仍在公开斥责风险资产。这确实是人们记忆中最令人痛恨的牛市之一。

Today, major US equity benchmarks are within a whisker of breaking to new all-time highs.
今天,美国主要股票基准指数距离突破历史新高仅有一线之隔。

For those who follow our work, this isn’t a huge surprise. History has been favoring the bulls.
对于那些关注我们工作的人来说,这并不是什么大惊小怪的事情。历史一直看好多头。

“Stocks have been on a tear since bottoming back in October – so a pullback is arguably overdue – but the equity market benchmark has never retested its former lows within the following 12 months after it breaks this key retracement level. This adds to supporting evidence we’ve been citing making the case for the worst being behind us.” — Indicator With 100% Hit Rate Implies New Equity Bull Market (July 2023)
"自 10 月份触底以来,股市一路高歌猛进--因此回调可以说是迟早的事--但股市基准在突破这一关键回调水平后的 12 个月内,从未重新测试过之前的低点。这为我们一直在引用的最坏情况已经过去的观点提供了更多佐证"。- 命中率为 100% 的指标暗示新一轮股市牛市(2023 年 7 月)

New all-time highs make for great headlines, but they’re more important than that. It erodes the notion of “just another bear market rally” and adds pressure on investors and money managers to increase risk exposure (if for no other reason than to keep pace with their benchmarks).
新的历史高点是一个很好的标题,但比这更重要。它削弱了 "只是又一次熊市反弹 "的概念,给投资者和基金经理增加了增加风险敞口的压力(如果没有其他原因,只是为了跟上他们的基准)。

Now that the Fed looks to be on hold indefinitely — with their projections confirming what the market has already started pricing in — we expect more buying pressure as investors reallocate towards risk in the new year.
现在,美联储似乎将无限期按兵不动--他们的预测证实了市场已经开始的定价--我们预计,随着投资者在新的一年里重新配置风险,买盘压力会更大。

We expect crypto to benefit from this structural shift.
我们预计加密货币将从这一结构性转变中受益。

BTC looks to have finally broken out of its long bear market consolidation — and when compared to other asset classes, it’s the fastest horse in the race.
BTC 看起来终于走出了长期的熊市盘整--与其他资产类别相比,它是这场竞赛中跑得最快的一匹马。

BTC’s latest price surge has propelled it to break out against the NDX, which itself is up >50% year-to-date.
BTC 最近的价格飙升推动其突破了 NDX 指数,而 NDX 指数本身今年迄今为止的涨幅也超过了 50%。

BTC also broke out against its ‘boomer’ peer — even as gold attempts to claim a fresh all-time high.
在黄金试图创下历史新高之际,比特币也突破了其 "潮汐 "同侪的阻力。

This market rally is no longer siloed to just BTC, either. We’ve been noting how the broader crypto market – ex-megacaps – also turned the corner and is starting to break out.
市场的反弹也不再局限于 BTC。我们一直在关注更广泛的加密货币市场--除超级大盘股外--是如何转危为安并开始突破的。

And how market breadth has improved as more crypto assets participate in the latest uptrend.
随着越来越多的加密资产参与到最新的上升趋势中,市场的广度也得到了改善。

Yet despite this year’s impressive returns, general interest in crypto has lagged.
然而,尽管今年的回报率令人印象深刻,人们对加密货币的普遍兴趣却滞后了。

Nor have we seen an explosion in financial media coverage.
我们也没有看到财经媒体报道的爆炸式增长。

Crypto still feels like it’s in its “guilty until proven innocent” phase.
加密货币仍处于 "在证明无罪之前有罪 "的阶段。

Price is the ultimate driver of attention, capital flows, and onchain activity — so prices likely need to go a bit higher before we see a real influx of new users and capital. But that time will come.
价格是关注度、资本流动和链上活动的最终驱动力--因此,在我们看到新用户和资本真正涌入之前,价格可能还需要再高一些。但时机终将到来。

Bitcoin continues to follow our market cycle playbook almost to a T — so there’s still a lot to play for.
比特币继续遵循我们的市场周期玩法--因此仍有很多值得玩味的地方。

BTC’s price is tracking its typical post-bottom price action, implying a majority of gains are yet to be realized.
BTC 的价格正在追踪其典型的底部后价格走势,这意味着大部分收益尚未实现。

BTC is up >150% YTD, on pace for its best year since 2020. Notably, in the last two major market cycles, most of Bitcoin’s returns came in year 2 or 3.
比特币在今年年初的涨幅超过了 150%,有望成为自 2020 年以来涨幅最好的一年。值得注意的是,在过去两个主要市场周期中,比特币的大部分回报都出现在第二年或第三年。

We’re also ~110 days out from Bitcoin’s next halving (April 2024). Like prior cycles, this highly anticipated event will come almost exactly 18 months after its prior cycle bottom.
现在距离比特币下一次减半(2024 年 4 月)还有约 110 天。与之前的周期一样,这一备受期待的事件将在比特币上一周期底部后的 18 个月内发生。

Following both prior halvings, BTC’s price was significantly higher 12 months out, with an average return of >400% (~260% post-2016, ~560% post-2020).
在之前的两次半价之后,BTC 的价格在 12 个月后大幅上涨,平均回报率超过 400%(2016 年后约为 260%,2020 年后约为 560%)。

Those who’ve been following our work know the real reason why these consistencies are notable though — and why we remain steadfast in our position that we’ve been in the early stages of a new cycle.
那些一直关注我们工作的人知道这些一致性之所以显著的真正原因--也知道我们为什么仍然坚持我们的立场,即我们一直处于新周期的早期阶段。

The Fastest Horse During Liquidity Upcycles
流动性上升周期中的快马

Bitcoin halvings aren’t the primary catalyst for crypto market cycles. Evidence shows that liquidity upcycles have been the key driver of BTC and crypto bull markets to-date.
比特币减半并不是加密货币市场周期的主要催化剂。有证据表明,流动性上行周期是迄今为止比特币和加密货币牛市的主要推动力。

Liquidity goes up, risk appetite increases, prices rise, network activity grows, demand for crypto assets rise, prices go higher, more users and capital come in – and around we go.
流动性增加,风险偏好上升,价格上涨,网络活动增加,对加密资产的需求上升,价格走高,更多用户和资本涌入--就这样循环往复。

We expect this dynamic to continue into 2024, largely driven by more liquidity support from the world’s two most important central banks — The Fed and China’s PBOC.
我们预计这种态势将持续到 2024 年,主要是受到世界上最重要的两大央行--美联储和中国人民银行--提供的更多流动性支持的推动。

Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge in the way many believe it to be. Bitcoin is a high beta hedge on currency debasement and monetary inflation, not a hedge against consumer price inflation (CPI) — a point we’ve been harping on for years.
比特币并不像许多人认为的那样是一种通货膨胀对冲工具。比特币是货币贬值和货币通胀的高贝塔对冲工具,而不是消费价格通胀(CPI)的对冲工具--这是我们多年来一直强调的一点。

Excerpt from one of Delphi’s State of Bitcoin reports back in 2020 (oh how far we’ve come).
摘自 Delphi 在 2020 年发布的《比特币现状》报告(哦,我们已经走了这么远)。

That’s why BTC has such a strong correlation with Fed Liquidity.
这就是为什么 BTC 与美联储流动性有如此强的相关性。

Fed Liquidity essentially tracks changes in the US monetary base.
美联储流动性主要跟踪美国货币基础的变化。

And monetary growth drives currency debasement, which boosts asset prices, like stocks…
货币增长推动货币贬值,从而刺激股票等资产价格......

…and crypto prices. ...以及加密货币的价格。

Bitcoin is one of the purest bets on liquidity expansions, so it tends to outperform when Fed Liquidity is rising — as it has been for most of the year.
比特币是对流动性扩张最纯粹的押注之一,因此当美联储流动性上升时,比特币的表现往往优于其他货币--今年大部分时间都是如此。

Since the March banking crisis, reductions in the Fed’s balance sheet have been met with a reduction in the amount of excess liquidity sitting in the RRP.
自 3 月份的银行业危机以来,美联储资产负债表的缩减,导致了再投资计划中过剩流动性的减少。

We’ve seen ~$1.6 trillion drained from the RRP since the end of March, more than 3 times the size of the TGA’s increase during the same period.
自 3 月底以来,我们已经看到约 1.6 万亿美元的资金从 RRP 中流出,是 TGA 同期增幅的 3 倍多。

Bank reserves have actually increased over the last few months — even despite the TGA’s rise — given how sharp the drawdown in the RRP has been.
在过去的几个月里,银行储备实际上是增加了--尽管 TGA 上升了--因为经常资源计划的缩减是如此之快。

Money market funds (MMFs) have been reallocating out of the RRP into USTs — specifically T-bills — as relative yields have become more attractive.
由于相对收益率变得更有吸引力,货币市场基金(MMF)一直在将 RRP 重新分配到 UST(特别是 T-bills)。

Put simply, the US Treasury has ramped up debt issuance and funds are flowing out of the RRP to absorb this additional UST supply, rather than being financed via a drawdown in bank reserves.
简单地说,美国财政部加大了发债力度,资金从储备计划中流出,以吸收这些额外的 UST 供应,而不是通过银行储备的缩减来融资。

This serves as a liquidity boost for markets.
这对市场的流动性起到了促进作用。

We actually predicted something like this would happen back in February.
实际上,我们早在二月份就预测到会发生这样的事情。

“Let’s assume the drama surrounding the US debt ceiling gets resolved eventually (because the alternative is likely too detrimental for policymakers). When it does, we expect to see a material increase in T-bill issuance. This additional supply could help drawdown funds from the RRP given the seemingly insatiable appetite from MMFs for short-duration safe assets. This would serve as a net boost to liquidity.” — Pulse Check on Liquidity Trends (Feb. 2023)
"让我们假设围绕美国债务上限的闹剧最终会得到解决(因为另一种选择可能对决策者太不利)。届时,我们预计国债发行量将大幅增加。鉴于多层面货币基金对短期安全资产的需求似乎难以满足,这种额外的供应可能有助于从再投资计划中提取资金。这将对流动性起到净促进作用。- 流动性趋势脉搏检测(2023 年 2 月)

And we expect this trend will continue over the coming months.
我们预计这一趋势将在未来几个月内持续下去。

Policymakers will likely continue favoring shorter duration T-bill issuance over longer duration coupon debt. That way the increase in UST supply can be balanced by a similar increase in MMF demand — thus pulling more excess liquidity out of the RRP, like we’ve seen in recent months.
政策制定者可能会继续倾向于发行期限较短的国债,而不是期限较长的票息债务。这样,UST 供应的增加就能被 MMF 需求的类似增长所平衡--从而像最近几个月我们所看到的那样,将更多过剩的流动性从 RRP 中抽出。

The US Treasury is expected to issue over $2 trillion of UST debt over the next two years, with ~$800 billion of borrowing in Q1 2024. The RRP currently has ~$700B still being parked in it.
预计美国财政部将在未来两年内发行超过 2 万亿美元的 UST 债券,其中 2024 年第一季度的借贷额约为 8000 亿美元。目前,RRP 中仍有约 7000 亿美元的资金。

But at the current rate, the RRP could be completely drained by the end of Q1 2024 (if not sooner). Once the RRP is drained, new UST issuance will start to reduce bank reserves.
但按照目前的速度,到 2024 年第一季度末(如果不是更早的话),RRP 可能会被完全耗尽。一旦存款准备金耗尽,新的 UST 发行将开始减少银行储备。

This transition could disrupt any uptrend in risk assets since this is when QT will actually start sucking liquidity out of the system (think Fed Liquidity contracting).
这一过渡可能会扰乱风险资产的任何上升趋势,因为此时 QT 将真正开始从系统中吸走流动性(想想美联储流动性收缩)。

There’s no specific level that classifies as the minimal amount of reserves needed. Some estimate it’s anywhere from $2.2 to $3 trillion, while others would argue it’s even higher.
目前还没有一个具体的标准来划分所需的最低储备量。有人估计需要 2.2 万亿至 3 万亿美元,也有人认为需要更高。

Assuming bank reserves start near ~$3.6-3.8T, and the Fed’s balance sheet runoff of USTs continues to track ~$60B per month, QT in its current form could last well into 2H 2024 before bank reserves start approaching these levels.
假设银行储备开始接近约 3.6-3.8 亿美元,而美联储资产负债表上的美国短期债券流出继续保持每月约 600 亿美元的速度,那么当前形式的量化宽松可能会持续到 2024 年下半年,然后银行储备才会开始接近上述水平。

However, given the scars of the 2019 spike in repo rates, and banks’ desires to hold more liquid cash buffers following March’s regional banking crisis, we anticipate tapering — or an outright end — to QT well above these levels.
然而,考虑到 2019 年回购利率飙升留下的伤疤,以及银行在 3 月份地区银行业危机后持有更多流动性现金缓冲的愿望,我们预计量化宽松将在远高于上述水平的基础上逐步缩减或彻底结束。

The Fed has also given itself air cover to start cutting rates if any market disruptions arise. And there’s a decent chance they might. If asset prices take another sharp dive, insolvency risks will become increasingly apparent — and at the most inopportune time.
美联储还为自己提供了空中掩护,以便在市场出现任何混乱时开始降息。而这种情况很有可能发生。如果资产价格再次大幅跳水,破产风险将变得越来越明显--而且是在最不恰当的时候。

Goldman Sachs estimates there’s ~$1.8 trillion of corporate debt maturing over the next two years.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计,未来两年将有约 1.8 万亿美元的企业债务到期。

Which means many companies will need to rollover existing debt obligations next year, even those that don’t mature until 2025 as to avoid them converting to short-term debts.
这意味着许多公司需要在明年对现有债务进行展期,即使是那些到 2025 年才到期的债务,以避免它们转为短期债务。

Debt needs liquidity — something we talked about in last year’s report (and again after the March banking fallout).
债务需要流动性--这是我们在去年的报告中谈到过的(在 3 月份的银行业风波之后再次谈到)。

If credit conditions are too tight — or rates are still too high — when companies go to refinance, easier financing conditions will transition from a nice-to-have to a need-to-have.
如果信贷条件过于紧张,或者利率仍然过高,那么当企业进行再融资时,更宽松的融资条件就会从 "不错 "变成 "必须"。

This all assumes volatility in the Treasury market remains relatively benign, too. Liquidity conditions in the UST market are still fragile, so any disruptions — like a major unwind in the hedge fund basis trade for example — will call the Fed to action earlier than anticipated (as we’ve seen in the past).
这一切的前提是国债市场的波动也保持相对温和。美国国债市场的流动性条件仍然脆弱,因此任何干扰--比如对冲基金基础交易的大幅平仓--都会要求美联储比预期更早采取行动(正如我们过去看到的那样)。

The reality is large fiscal deficits will force the US Treasury to issue more and more debt — and again, more debt will require more liquidity.
现实情况是,巨额财政赤字将迫使美国财政部发行越来越多的债务--同样,更多的债务需要更多的流动性。

Our base case remains that the Fed will need to reverse QT and restart asset purchases to expand its balance sheet over the next 12-24 months. Debt monetization is still the End Game.
我们的基本判断仍然是,美联储需要扭转量化宽松政策,重启资产购买,在未来 12-24 个月内扩大资产负债表。债务货币化仍是最终游戏。

In short, we believe funds will continue to flow out of the RRP in Q1 2024, draining a key source of excess liquidity. Once the RRP is drained, new UST issuance will start to deplete bank reserves, which will put more pressure on the Fed to reverse QT and potentially restart asset purchases in 2H 2024.
简而言之,我们认为资金将在 2024 年第一季度继续流出 RRP,从而耗尽过剩流动性的一个关键来源。一旦RRP枯竭,新的UST发行将开始消耗银行储备,这将给美联储带来更大压力,迫使其扭转QT,并有可能在2024年下半年重启资产购买。

 

China Picking Up Liquidity Baton
中国接过流动性接力棒

The Fed gets a lot of attention, but it isn’t the only game in town.
美联储备受关注,但它并不是城里唯一的游戏。

China’s PBOC has become one of the largest contributors to global liquidity — and it’s been getting more active.
中国人民银行已成为全球流动性的最大贡献者之一,而且越来越活跃。

We stated early in the year that China looked poised to drive the next phase of liquidity growth, a trend we doubled down on again this summer.
今年年初,我们曾指出,中国有望推动下一阶段的流动性增长,今年夏天,我们再次重申了这一趋势。

“While the U.S. and its massive Covid-era stimulus received most of the attention in 2020, China is one to watch going forward — it looks poised to take the liquidity baton in its battle against deflation and its renewed commitment to shoring up domestic growth.” — Catalysts Stacking Up – Will Narratives Drive Fundamentals? (July 2023)
"虽然美国及其科维德时代的大规模刺激政策在2020年受到了大多数人的关注,但中国也是未来值得关注的一个国家--它似乎准备好在与通货紧缩的斗争中接过流动性的接力棒,并重新致力于巩固国内增长"。- 催化剂扎堆--叙事能否推动基本面?(2023年7月)

Since then, PBOC liquidity injections have continued to increase.
此后,中国人民银行继续增加流动性注入。

We’ve written quite a bit on this topic (examples here and here), but in short:
关于这个话题,我们已经写了不少文章(此处和此处的例子),但简而言之:

  • Top officials in the world’s second-largest economy have been staring down the double barrel threat of deflation and struggles to jumpstart a sustainable rebound in economic growth.
    世界第二大经济体的高官们一直面临着通货紧缩和经济增长难以持续反弹的双重威胁。
  • Credit growth tends to pick up when China’s economic outlook wanes, which we’ve seen especially given an even steeper contraction in export growth than many anticipated.
    当中国经济前景黯淡时,信贷增长往往会回升,特别是在出口增长比许多人预期的收缩幅度更大的情况下,我们已经看到了这一点。
  • Similar credit expansions are usually driven by more PBOC liquidity support.
    类似的信贷扩张通常是由更多的中国人民银行流动性支持推动的。
  • More liquidity injections tend to boost asset prices, particularly risk assets.
    注入更多流动性往往会提振资产价格,尤其是风险资产。

The S&P 500 has been tracking expansions and contractions in the PBOC’s balance sheet since the GFC.
自全球金融危机以来,标准普尔 500 指数一直在跟踪中国人民银行资产负债表的扩张和收缩。

BTC and crypto markets also exhibit a strong correlation with PBOC liquidity expansions.
BTC 和加密货币市场与中国人民银行的流动性扩张也表现出很强的相关性。

We’ve drawn parallels between this year’s market action and that of 2015-2017.
我们将今年的市场走势与 2015-2017 年的市场走势进行了比较。

If we rewind the clock, risk assets had one of their best years in 2017 despite consistent Fed rate hikes and growing anticipation that QT was around the corner.
如果我们把时间倒回去,尽管美联储持续加息,人们对量化宽松即将到来的预期也越来越强烈,但风险资产在 2017 年却迎来了最好的年份之一。

During this time, the PBOC’s balance sheet was also expanding, and coupled with a weaker USD, helped give risk assets the liquidity boost they needed.
在此期间,中国人民银行的资产负债表也在不断扩大,再加上美元走软,为风险资产提供了所需的流动性。

Bitcoin naturally benefited from this as well.
比特币自然也从中受益。

We’ve seen a somewhat similar dynamic play out this year. Even though the Fed has signaled peak rates are now behind us, they’re still higher than they were at the start of the year (and only recently have market expectations shifted dramatically towards multiple rate cuts next year).
今年我们也看到了类似的动态。尽管美联储已发出信号,表示利率峰值已经过去,但目前仍高于年初的水平(直到最近,市场预期才急剧转向明年多次降息)。

Yet risk assets had another banner year as global liquidity rebounded.
然而,随着全球流动性的反弹,风险资产在今年再创辉煌。

More central bank liquidity drives more demand for monetary inflation hedges like gold, which is also tracking its price action from that period.
央行流动性的增加推动了对黄金等货币通胀对冲工具的更多需求,而黄金的价格走势也与这一时期如出一辙。

The DXY has also been tracking this period. After a similar +25% surge, the DXY rolled over, making way for asset prices to move higher.
在此期间,DXY 也一直在跟踪。在经历了类似的+25%的飙升后,DXY 指数翻转,为资产价格走高让路。

The USD is one of the best indicators to gauge market sentiment on growth, risk, and liquidity. It tracks major equity benchmarks (e.g. NDX), UST yields, commodities & energy prices, and monetary inflation hedges like gold and BTC. If you can predict where the dollar will go, there’s a very good chance you’ll know where asset prices will end up.
美元是衡量市场对增长、风险和流动性情绪的最佳指标之一。它追踪主要股票基准(如 NDX)、美国存托凭证收益率、大宗商品和能源价格,以及黄金和 BTC 等货币通胀对冲工具。如果您能预测美元的走势,就很有可能知道资产价格的最终走向。

Liquidity upcycles tend to see dollar weakness (another trend we noted in last year’s YA report). So further increases in central bank liquidity will apply downward pressure on the greenback…
流动性上升周期往往会导致美元疲软(我们在去年的 YA 报告中指出的另一个趋势)。因此,央行流动性的进一步增加将给美元带来下行压力...

…which is good for BTC and crypto markets.
......这有利于 BTC 和加密货币市场。

More liquidity should propel higher beta segments of the crypto market to outperform too.
更多的流动性应该会推动加密货币市场中贝塔系数较高的部分表现出色。

Solana (SOL) is one we’ve been talking about for a while as a candidate primed to outperform this cycle. It reminds us of ETH last cycle, with plenty of upside potential if its ecosystem continues to grow as fast as we anticipate.
Solana (SOL) 是我们讨论已久的一个候选币种,有望在本轮周期中表现优异。它让我们想起了上一轮的 ETH,如果它的生态系统继续像我们预期的那样快速发展,那么它将有很大的上涨潜力。

In short, the combination of Fed and PBOC liquidity is a powerful force for BTC and crypto. We expect central bank liquidity to continue trending higher next year as we’ve entered into a new liquidity upcycle. More accommodative policy from these juggernauts will also give other central banks the cover they need to ease and support their own economies.
简而言之,美联储和中国人民银行的流动性组合对 BTC 和加密货币来说是一股强大的力量。我们预计明年央行流动性将继续走高,因为我们已经进入了一个新的流动性上升周期。这些巨头更加宽松的政策也将为其他央行提供宽松政策和支持本国经济所需的掩护。

 

Every Bull Market Sees Consolidation Periods
每个牛市都有盘整期

Despite our more favorable year-end views, there’s a decent chance we see some consolidation in the next few months.
尽管我们对年末的看法较为乐观,但在接下来的几个月里,我们很有可能会看到一些盘整。

BTC has now officially retraced 50% of its peak-to-trough selloff.
目前,比特币已正式回调了峰值到谷底跌幅的 50%。

This was a key area of resistance last cycle — BTC traded sideways and eventually saw a sizable pullback that lasted over a year before ultimately making its push to a new ATH. We saw similar price action back in Q4 2016, though the extent of that consolidation was much shorter (~5 months).
这是上个周期的一个关键阻力区域--比特币横盘整理,最终出现了长达一年多的大幅回调,最终才向新的 ATH 值发起冲击。早在 2016 年第四季度,我们就看到了类似的价格走势,不过那次盘整的时间要短得多(约 5 个月)。

The market selloff in March 2020 is an obvious outlier here, but at a minimum, these periods of consolidation tend to last at least a few months. In each prior instance, BTC broke above its 61.8% retracement level before topping out, so a move above $50K could mark a natural consolidation point.
2020 年 3 月的市场大跌是一个明显的例外,但这些盘整期至少会持续几个月。在之前的每个案例中,比特币在触顶之前都突破了 61.8% 的回撤位,因此突破 5 万美元可能标志着一个自然的盘整点。

Historically, once BTC retraces >75% of its peak-to-trough drawdown, that’s when it’s game on. If price were to make a clean break above ~$56K, the next logical stop would be a retest of its prior high (~$70K).
从历史上看,一旦 BTC 的回撤幅度大于其峰值到谷底回撤幅度的 75%,那么游戏就开始了。如果价格一举突破约 5.6 万美元,下一个合理的止损点将是重新测试前期高点(约 7 万美元)。

Prediction: We will see a period of consolidation in 1H 2024, which sets up the next leg of the bull market. BTC breaks to a new all-time high by the end of 2024.
预测:我们将在 2024 年上半年看到一段盘整期,为牛市的下一个阶段做好准备。到 2024 年底,比特币将突破历史新高。

A *Very* Speculative Timeline for 2024
2024年的**推测时间表

Obviously, none of us has a crystal ball, but given all of the above and what we’re seeing, here’s how things could transpire next year:
显然,我们都没有水晶球,但考虑到上述情况和我们所看到的,明年的情况可能会是这样:

  • Liquidity expands into Q1 2024, driven by a continued drawdown in the RRP and further liquidity support from the PBOC.
    到 2024 年第一季度,流动性将扩大,这得益于经常资源计划的持续缩减以及中国人民银行的进一步流动性支持。
  • Spot BTC ETF gets approved and launches into an ideal backdrop since demand for BTC exposure is a lot more palpable when price is going up (and we know liquidity turbocharges fund flows).
    现货 BTC ETF 获得批准并在理想的背景下推出,因为当价格上涨时,对 BTC 的需求会更加明显(我们知道流动性会加速资金流动)。
  • The Bitcoin halving in early April gives price another boost as BTC tends to run up in the weeks leading up to the event. Again, halvings aren’t the primary driver of crypto bull markets, but they can pour fuel on an already lit fire.
    四月初的比特币减半会再次提振价格,因为比特币往往会在减半前的几周内上涨。同样,减半并不是加密货币牛市的主要驱动力,但它们可以为已经点燃的火苗再添一把火。
  • All these potential near term catalysts (liquidity expansion, ETF launch, Bitcoin halving) could lose steam right around the same time in late Q1 / early Q2. This is where the greatest likelihood for a pullback/consolidation lies in my view, though its possible we see this sooner given how far prices have already run.
    所有这些潜在的近期催化剂(流动性扩张、ETF 推出、比特币减半)都可能在一季度末/二季度初同时失去动力。在我看来,这正是比特币最有可能出现回调/盘整的时候,不过考虑到比特币价格已经上涨了这么多,我们也有可能更早看到这一点。
  • It’s important to remember every bull market sees some period of price consolidation — the market never goes up in a straight line. Pullbacks and price consolidations are not only guaranteed — they’re necessary, healthy resets that setup the next big upside move.
    重要的是要记住,每个牛市都会有一段价格盘整期--市场从来不会直线上升。回调和价格盘整不仅是有保证的,而且是必要的、健康的复位,为下一次大幅上扬做好准备。
  • Mounting pressures will eventually force the Fed to desert QT and restart asset purchases in 2H 2024. Coupled with more liquidity support from the PBOC — and likely other central banks as the year progresses — BTC will break to a new high by the end of 2024.
    不断增加的压力最终将迫使美联储放弃量化宽松政策,在 2024 年下半年重启资产购买。再加上中国人民银行提供的更多流动性支持(随着时间的推移,其他央行也可能提供支持),BTC 将在 2024 年底创下新高。

 

Key Theme#2 : Crypto Markets Are Transitioning Into A High Volatility Regime
关键主题 2:加密货币市场正在向高波动性过渡

Volatility is one of the most important concepts in financial markets. Many use volatility as a measure of risk; I prefer to think of volatility strictly in terms of the price fluctuations of assets over time. Generally, more risky assets tend to be more volatile on average than less risky assets.
波动性是金融市场最重要的概念之一。许多人把波动率作为衡量风险的标准,而我更愿意严格地从资产价格随时间波动的角度来看待波动率。一般来说,风险较高的资产往往比风险较低的资产平均波动更大。

Simply put, higher volatility means an asset is more likely to trade in wider ranges. More risky assets like equities or crypto are likely to resemble the profile described by the green line, whereas less risky assets, like fixed income vehicles, are likely to be described by the red line.
简单地说,波动率越高,意味着资产更有可能在更大的范围内交易。股票或加密货币等风险较高的资产可能与绿线描述的情况相似,而固定收益工具等风险较低的资产可能与红线描述的情况相似。

Volatility is the lifeblood of active market participants.
波动是活跃市场参与者的命脉。

Without volatility, prices move less, leading to fewer money-making opportunities and overall apathy in a market known for its wild behavior. Those who were around in 2019 know this feeling quite well.
没有波动性,价格波动就会减少,从而导致赚钱机会减少,整个市场就会变得冷漠,而市场的疯狂行为是众所周知的。2019 年的参与者对这种感觉深有体会。

The last 18 months could be characterized as a decreasing/low volatility regime. It’s been a challenging environment for active market participants to navigate.
在过去的 18 个月里,市场波动性不断降低。对于活跃的市场参与者来说,这是一个充满挑战的环境。

But, as Bob Dylan notes, the times they are a-changin.
但是,正如鲍勃-迪伦所说,时代在变。

Take Notice of Changing Volatility Regimes
注意不断变化的波动机制

Volatility regimes are a defining behavior of financial markets. These regimes, characterized by distinct levels of price fluctuations, greatly influence the performance of various asset classes, including equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.
波动机制是金融市场的一种决定性行为。这些机制以不同程度的价格波动为特征,极大地影响着股票、债券和加密货币等各类资产的表现。

If you are an active market participant, identifying the regime you are in is absolutely essential.
如果您是一位活跃的市场参与者,确定您所处的制度绝对是至关重要的。

Low Volatility Regimes demonstrate more subdued price movements (and perhaps more consistent growth) on average, whereas High Volatility Regimes are marked by significant price swings in traditional markets, often triggered by macroeconomic uncertainties or geopolitical events. The 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic are prime examples.
低波动率体系的平均价格波动更为平缓(或许增长更为稳定),而高波动率体系的特点是传统市场价格大幅波动,通常由宏观经济不确定性或地缘政治事件引发。2008 年金融危机和 COVID-19 大流行病就是最好的例子。

In crypto markets, the easiest way of determining the current vol regime is by looking at some volatility metrics, like @velodata BTC DVOL implied volatility index used previously. Another way of visualizing vol regimes is by simply looking at an asset’s daily trading ranges and comparing them to years past.
在加密货币市场,确定当前波动率机制的最简单方法就是查看一些波动率指标,比如之前使用过的 @velodata BTC DVOL 隐含波动率指数。另一种可视化波动率机制的方法是查看资产的每日交易范围,并将其与过去几年进行比较。

The low vol regime throughout the majority of 2023 is clear for all to see…
2023 年大部分时间的低波动制度有目共睹...

Which is eerily reminiscent of the low vol regime experiences in 2019 through March 2020/COVID. Everything changed when COVID happened as markets went through a vol regime transition.
这不禁让人想起 2019 年至 2020 年 3 月/COVID 期间的低波动率制度。当 COVID 发生时,一切都发生了变化,因为市场经历了波动机制的过渡。

This persisted throughout the 2021 market cycle, before ultimately ending and transitioning back to the lower vol regime that we’ve been experiencing.
这种情况持续了整个 2021 年市场周期,最终结束并过渡回我们一直在经历的低波动率制度。

Transitional Phases: Transitional phases refer to the shift between low and high volatility regimes and can be the most important dynamic for investors and active market participants to identify.
过渡阶段:过渡阶段指的是低波动率制度和高波动率制度之间的转变,对于投资者和活跃的市场参与者来说,这可能是最需要识别的动态。

In my experience trading financial markets across a few different assets, the biggest volatility regime shifts (and opportunities) have come on the back of external forces such as:
根据我在金融市场上交易几种不同资产的经验,最大的波动机制转变(和机会)都是在外部力量的支持下发生的,例如:

  • Clarity or uncertainty around the economic situation or market event
    经济形势或市场事件的明确性或不确定性
  • Major geopolitical events
    重大地缘政治事件
  • Central bank policy changes
    中央银行政策变化

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” This is what transition phases are to financial markets. The optimal strategies for low vol regimes may not be as effective in high vol regimes (and vice versa).
"有几十年的时间什么都没发生;有几周的时间却发生了几十年的事情"。这就是过渡阶段对金融市场的影响。低波动期的最佳策略在高波动期可能不那么有效(反之亦然)。

As it happens, market activity suggests that we are likely in that phase now. We also happen to be on the cusp of an interesting year.
市场活动表明,我们现在很可能正处于这一阶段。同时,我们也将迎来有趣的一年。

Organic Volatility Events Add Fuel To The Fire
有机波动事件火上浇油

2024 is set up to be pivotal, littered with organic volatility events that promise to shake up markets. As we learned, exogenous events can have profound impacts on volatility regimes and asset price fluctuations, especially within crypto markets.
2024 年将是一个关键的年份,充满了有望撼动市场的有机波动事件。正如我们所了解到的,外生事件会对波动机制和资产价格波动产生深远影响,尤其是在加密货币市场。

On the docket for 2024 we have:
2024 年的日程安排如下

  • Bitcoin Halving 比特币减半
  • BTC Spot ETF 比特币现货 ETF
  • 2024 Presidential Election
    2024 年总统大选

Bitcoin Halving: Bitcoin halvings typically lead to increased price volatility. Whether this is because BTC halvings have typically lined up with larger macro liquidity factors discussed in prior writings or a type of self-fulfilling prophecy, the data has been clear. Coincidentally, we are seeing similar timing with respect to easing liquidity conditions as we head into the 2024 halving event.
比特币减半:比特币减半通常会导致价格波动加剧。无论这是因为比特币减半通常与之前文章中讨论的更大的宏观流动性因素相吻合,还是一种自我实现的预言,数据都是明确的。巧合的是,随着 2024 年比特币减半事件的到来,我们也看到了类似的流动性宽松时机。

BTC Spot ETF: The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could mark a significant shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics, possibly aligning its volatility more closely with traditional financial markets over time.
比特币现货 ETF:比特币现货 ETF 的批准可能标志着比特币市场动态的重大转变,随着时间的推移,其波动性可能与传统金融市场更加接近。

Advocates of crypto markets are hoping a Bitcoin ETF will usher a wave of new capital that was otherwise cautious about wading into crypto markets in the past. After all, up until relatively recently, it was still a career risk to jump into the industry. These financial products, championed by the likes of Blackrock, have essentially stamped BTC with the proverbial stamp of approval.
加密货币市场的拥护者们希望比特币 ETF 能够迎来一波新的资本浪潮,否则他们过去在涉足加密货币市场时会非常谨慎。毕竟,直到最近,进入该行业仍然是一种职业风险。这些由 Blackrock 等公司倡导的金融产品,基本上已经为 BTC 盖上了众所周知的印章。

Investors will be keen to monitor the initial flows that make their way into these new products to gauge demand.
投资者将密切关注进入这些新产品的初始资金流,以衡量需求。

This topic will be discussed in more depth in the following section.
下一节将对这一主题进行更深入的讨论。

2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Presidential elections can have significant impacts on markets (think back to Trump’s 2016 election and policy decisions that resulted), and election years often bring uncertainty. Market uncertainty breeds volatility.
2024 年美国总统大选:总统选举会对市场产生重大影响(回想一下特朗普 2016 年的当选和由此产生的政策决定),而选举年往往会带来不确定性。市场的不确定性会滋生波动。

Obama famously stated that “elections have consequences.” And while he wasn’t referring to financial markets and crypto assets, this statement is extremely fitting for the upcoming year.
奥巴马曾说过一句名言:"选举是有后果的"。虽然他指的并不是金融市场和加密资产,但这句话对于即将到来的一年却极为贴切。

With respect to crypto specifically, this is perhaps the most important election in the industry’s history to date. Crypto innovation and the industry has found itself as part of the typical partisan battles fought in DC, as we’ve seen with Senator Warren’s recent call to arms. This is a shame, as technological innovation should be apolitical.
具体到加密货币,这或许是该行业迄今为止最重要的一次选举。正如我们从参议员沃伦最近的呼吁中看到的那样,加密货币创新和该行业已经成为华盛顿典型的党派斗争的一部分。这是一种耻辱,因为技术创新应该是非政治性的。

This has also been a big year for crypto regulation and litigation. The SEC has taken aim at numerous industry participants, such as Coinbase, Grayscale, Ripple, and others, while mostly coming up empty-handed. The outcome of this election will likely have implications on the regulatory landscape for the industry at the same time in which crypto is being opened to broader US capital markets. We believe it will be a pivotal election.One of Trump’s main campaign promises was to bring back jobs in the U.S. coal and steel industries. When Trump was confirmed victorious, these industries reacted. We saw ancillary industries react, as well. If we expect a similar potential outcome for crypto markets on the back of a positive election outcome in 2024, it is worth keeping this historical dynamic in mind when making allocation decisions. A specific example that springs to mind is Coinbase, a juggernaut positioned at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance. As it so happens, we’ve laid out the bull case in our report, Coinbase: From Sleeping Giant To Industry Leader.
今年也是加密货币监管和诉讼的重要一年。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对 Coinbase、Grayscale、Ripple 等众多行业参与者发起了攻击,但大多都无功而返。在加密货币向更广泛的美国资本市场开放的同时,这次选举的结果很可能会对该行业的监管格局产生影响。我们认为,这将是一次关键性的选举。特朗普的主要竞选承诺之一是让美国煤炭和钢铁行业重新就业。当特朗普获胜后,这些行业做出了反应。我们看到辅助行业也做出了反应。如果我们预期在 2024 年大选结果向好的背景下,加密货币市场也会出现类似的潜在结果,那么在做出配置决策时,就值得牢记这一历史动态。我想到的一个具体例子是 Coinbase,这是一家位于加密货币和传统金融交汇处的巨头。碰巧的是,我们在报告《Coinbase:从沉睡巨人到行业领袖》(Coinbase:从沉睡巨人到行业领袖。

Concluding Thoughts 结束语

As we wade into 2024, it would behoove active market participants to take note of the changing market environment, specifically the transition from a lower volatility regime into a higher volatility regime that we believe is occurring
进入 2024 年,活跃的市场参与者应该注意到不断变化的市场环境,特别是我们认为正在发生的从低波动率体制向高波动率体制的过渡。

Proper identification of these underlying dynamics allows investors to more easily calibrate their expectations and risk parameters. As we’ve noted, these transition periods are often brought upon by exogenous factors, such as:
正确识别这些潜在的动态变化,可以让投资者更容易地调整他们的预期和风险参数。正如我们所指出的,这些过渡期往往是由外生因素造成的,例如

  • Clarity or uncertainty around the economic situation or market event
    经济形势或市场事件的明确性或不确定性
  • Major geopolitical events
    重大地缘政治事件
  • Central bank policy changes
    中央银行政策变化

Coincidentally, we have all of these at the moment. On top of this, we also have several KEY events slated for the 2024 calendar, including:
巧合的是,我们现在拥有所有这些。除此之外,我们还计划在 2024 年举办几项 KEY 活动,其中包括:

  • Bitcoin Halving Event 比特币减半事件
  • Pending Crypto Spot ETF Approval in the United States
    美国即将批准加密货币现货 ETF
  • 2024 Presidential Election
    2024 年总统大选

Combining these exogenous factors with the organic volatility events discussed above, 2024 promises to be a firecracker of a year. First up on the docket is the Pending BTC Spot ETF in January, fingers crossed!
将这些外生因素与上文讨论的内生波动事件结合起来,2024 年有望成为爆竹声声的一年。首当其冲的是 1 月份即将发行的 BTC 现货 ETF,让我们拭目以待!

 

Key Theme #3: Crypto Spot ETFs… The Institutions Are Coming!
关键主题 3:加密货币现货 ETF......机构要来了!

The anticipated approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024 is a watershed event in the cryptocurrency market with far-reaching implications.
比特币现货 ETF 预计将于 2024 年 1 月获批,这是加密货币市场的分水岭,影响深远。

This development is not only a milestone for Bitcoin, but a seismic shift in crypto’s market structure. To fully appreciate this impact, it is crucial to understand the role of ETFs in equity markets, the active vs. passive management debate influenced by ETFs, and the concept of passive drift.
这一发展不仅是比特币的一个里程碑,也是加密货币市场结构的一次地震式转变。要充分认识这一影响,关键是要了解 ETF 在股票市场中的作用、受 ETF 影响的主动管理与被动管理之争以及被动漂移的概念。

Role of ETFs in Equity Markets
ETF 在股票市场中的作用

ETFs have revolutionized investment markets by providing a vehicle that combines the diversification benefits of mutual funds with the liquidity and ease of trading of stocks. They allow investors to gain exposure to broad market indices or specific sectors with lower fees and more flexibility than traditional mutual funds.
ETF 提供了一种将共同基金的多样化优势与股票的流动性和交易便利性相结合的工具,从而彻底改变了投资市场。与传统的共同基金相比,ETF 以更低的费用和更大的灵活性,让投资者获得广泛的市场指数或特定行业的投资机会。

The movement toward passive management has been historical shift; gradual and consistent. In 2000, only 12% of equity assets were in passive funds, compared to about 50% by 2020. This demonstrates the growing influence of passive investment strategies, primarily driven by the proliferation of ETFs and their low-cost implementation.With the approval of a spot BTC ETF, the TAM in terms of institutional market participants increases substantially, as around 50% of assets are held in passive investment funds. We might expect to see similar statistics around BTC ownership in the upcoming years as more institutions and funds begin their allocation processes.
向被动管理的转变是历史性的,是渐进的,也是持续的。2000 年,被动型基金仅占股票资产的 12%,而到 2020 年,这一比例将达到约 50%。随着现货 BTC ETF 的批准,机构市场参与者的 TAM 大幅增加,因为大约 50% 的资产是由被动投资基金持有的。随着越来越多的机构和基金开始其分配过程,我们可能会在未来几年看到类似的 BTC 所有权统计数据。

Active vs. Passive Management
主动管理与被动管理

The rise of ETFs has intensified the active vs. passive management debate in investment circles. Passive management refers to the investment approach of using ETFs to track market indices passively. ETFs offer a low-cost, transparent, and efficient way of executing this strategy. This has challenged the value proposition of active management, where fund managers attempt to outperform the market through stock selection and timing.
ETF的兴起加剧了投资界关于主动管理与被动管理的争论。被动管理指的是利用 ETF 被动跟踪市场指数的投资方法。ETF 提供了一种低成本、透明、高效的方式来执行这一策略。这对主动管理的价值主张提出了挑战,即基金经理试图通过选股和择时跑赢市场。

The shift towards passive investment strategies has significant implications on market dynamics. It has led to a concentration of capital in index-tracking products, potentially impacting price discovery and market efficiency.
向被动投资策略的转变对市场动态有重大影响。它导致资本向指数跟踪产品集中,有可能影响价格发现和市场效率。

Some argue that this could lead to market distortions, as securities included in major indices may become overvalued, while those not included are undervalued. We have written about this concept in the report, Liquidity Cascades & the Evolution of Financial Markets.As of 2020, passive U.S. equity funds have amassed about $4.6 trillion in assets, surpassing active funds’ $4.3 trillion for the first time. This shift is indicative of a broader trend in market preference.
有些人认为,这可能会导致市场扭曲,因为纳入主要指数的证券可能会被高估,而未纳入指数的证券则会被低估。截至 2020 年,被动型美国股票基金已积累了约 4.6 万亿美元的资产,首次超过主动型基金的 4.3 万亿美元。这一转变表明了市场偏好的大趋势。

For better or for worse, volatility shocks and liquidity cascades have already established themselves as defining features in crypto markets. Will the establishment of passive products and trends we’ve seen in equity markets further exacerbate these dynamics, or will the (anticipated) substantial flow of capital over time help act as a volatility mitigant?
无论好坏,波动冲击和流动性级联已经成为加密货币市场的决定性特征。我们在股票市场上看到的被动式产品的建立和趋势是否会进一步加剧这些动态,或者随着时间的推移,(预期的)大量资本流动是否会有助于缓解波动性?

The dominance of passive investing might also strongly influence asset pricing dynamics. As more capital flows into index-tracking products, the prices of securities in those indices could be driven more by their index weight rather than their fundamental value. We have written about this concept in the report, Volatility, Order Flow, & the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
被动投资的主导地位也可能对资产定价动态产生重大影响。随着越来越多的资金流入指数追踪产品,这些指数中的证券价格可能更多地受到指数权重而非基本面价值的驱动。我们曾在《波动性、订单流与无弹性市场假说》报告中阐述过这一概念。

ETF Rebalancing Dynamics
ETF 再平衡动态

ETF rebalancing is the process by which traditional ETFs adjusts their portfolios to maintain its original asset allocation and investment strategy. Think of the SPY rebalancing as certain stocks increase (TSLA) and others decrease (Dollar General).
ETF 再平衡是传统 ETF 调整投资组合以保持其原有资产配置和投资策略的过程。当某些股票上涨(TSLA),另一些股票下跌(Dollar General)时,可以考虑对 SPY 进行再平衡。

Many asset allocators will create portfolios targeting a specific asset allocation/sector allocation utilizing ETF products. These allocators will also rebalance their portfolios to remain in compliance with their investment mandates.
许多资产配置者会利用 ETF 产品创建以特定资产配置/行业配置为目标的投资组合。这些配置者还会重新平衡其投资组合,以符合其投资任务。

Bitcoin will now be invited to this ETF party. However, the party might be a double edged sword at times. The impact of ETF rebalancing on market can be viewed through a few lenses:
现在,比特币将被邀请参加这场 ETF 派对。然而,这场派对有时可能是一把双刃剑。ETF 再平衡对市场的影响可以从几个方面来看:

  1. Price Impact: Rebalancing can create significant buying or selling pressure, potentially affecting Bitcoin’s market price. For instance, selling large amounts of Bitcoin to align with a benchmark during rebalancing can dampen price action in the short term.
    价格影响:再平衡会产生巨大的买入或卖出压力,从而可能影响比特币的市场价格。例如,在重新平衡过程中,为了与基准保持一致而大量抛售比特币,会在短期内抑制价格走势。
  2. Market Liquidity: Regular rebalancing trades can enhance overall market liquidity. However, in times of low market liquidity, these trades could exacerbate market stress and lead to more pronounced price movements. Bitcoin is much less liquid than its TradFi counterparts, meaning these impacts can be exacerbated.
    市场流动性:定期的再平衡交易可以提高市场的整体流动性。然而,在市场流动性较低时,这些交易可能会加剧市场压力,导致更明显的价格波动。比特币的流动性远低于 TradFi 同类产品,这意味着这些影响可能会加剧。
  3. Volatility: Rebalancing activities might amplify Bitcoin’s inherent volatility, especially if the ETF holds a substantial market share.
    波动性:再平衡活动可能会放大比特币固有的波动性,尤其是当 ETF 拥有相当大的市场份额时。
  4. Influence on Market Dynamics: Knowledge of the ETF’s rebalancing schedule could lead to front-running by other market participants, potentially impacting prices. Additionally, large ETF trades might have the potential to induce liquidity cascades in the right market environment, something we’ve written about extensively. It has been documented that ETF rebalancing is associated with strong price distortions of underlying securities, so it would be naive to expect the Bitcoin market and ETF to be different.
    影响市场动态:了解 ETF 的再平衡时间表可能会导致其他市场参与者跑在前面,从而对价格产生潜在影响。此外,在适当的市场环境下,ETF 的大额交易可能会诱发流动性瀑布效应,这一点我们已做过大量论述。有资料表明,ETF 的再平衡与相关证券的强烈价格扭曲有关,因此,指望比特币市场和 ETF 会有所不同是天真的。

Institutional Investors’ Approach
机构投资者的方法

The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF is a crucial step in legitimizing cryptocurrencies as an asset class for institutional investors. However, their participation is not guaranteed to be immediate or substantial. Herein lies a short-term risk factor for markets, as all eyes will be focused on the initial flows and demand for the BTC spot ETF once launched.
比特币现货 ETF 的批准是使加密货币作为机构投资者资产类别合法化的关键一步。然而,机构投资者的参与并不能保证立即或大量参与。市场的短期风险因素就在于此,因为一旦比特币现货 ETF 推出,所有的目光都将聚焦于其最初的流动和需求。

Should these numbers disappoint and fail to meet expectations, markets may play out in classic ‘sell the news’ fashion.
如果这些数据令人失望,未能达到预期,市场可能会出现典型的 "卖消息 "模式。

Additionally, institutional investment decisions are guided by factors such as investment mandates, risk assessments, and compliance requirements; not the ‘vibes’ and ‘memes’ approach that many crypto natives adore.
此外,机构投资决策受投资任务、风险评估和合规要求等因素的指导,而不是许多加密货币原住民所推崇的 "氛围 "和 "备忘录 "方法。

  • Investment Mandates: Many institutions have specific mandates that dictate their investment strategies. A Bitcoin spot ETF would need to align with these mandates, which often have an emphasize diversification and risk management. Amending old and drafting new mandates may take some time.
    投资任务:许多机构都有特定的任务,决定了他们的投资策略。比特币现货 ETF 需要与这些任务保持一致,这些任务通常强调多样化和风险管理。修改旧的授权和起草新的授权可能需要一些时间。
  • Compliance and Risk Management: Institutions are bound by stringent compliance standards. The volatile nature of crypto markets could pose challenges in risk assessment and management, potentially delaying institutional adoption beyond a blue chip asset such as BTC.
    合规与风险管理:机构必须遵守严格的合规标准。加密货币市场的不稳定性会给风险评估和管理带来挑战,可能会推迟机构对 BTC 等蓝筹资产的采用。
  • Market Maturity: Institutional investors typically seek stability and maturity in their investments. While an ETF provides a regulated and structured way to invest in Bitcoin, the overall maturity and liquidity in the market may cause institutions to move a bit slower than anticipated.
    市场成熟度:机构投资者通常追求投资的稳定性和成熟性。虽然 ETF 为比特币投资提供了一种受监管的结构化方式,但市场的整体成熟度和流动性可能会导致机构的行动比预期稍慢。

Gradual Adoption Timeline
逐步采用时间表

Given these considerations, it’s reasonable to expect a gradual adoption timeline for institutional investors. Initial participation may be cautious, with a focus on small, exploratory investments as institutions gauge the market’s appetite for demand and overall regulatory environment as we wade into 2024.
考虑到这些因素,我们有理由期待机构投资者逐步采用的时间表。在进入 2024 年后,机构将衡量市场的需求偏好和整体监管环境,因此最初的参与可能会比较谨慎,重点放在小规模的探索性投资上。

Gold ETFs: A Historical Precedent
黄金 ETF:历史先例

The introduction of gold ETFs in the early 2000s can help serve as a useful comparison. Gold ETFs provided a more accessible avenue for investing in gold, leading to increased demand and a significant rise in gold prices over time. They also contributed to greater liquidity and price discovery in the gold market.
21 世纪初黄金 ETF 的推出可以作为一个有益的对比。黄金 ETF 为投资黄金提供了更便捷的途径,导致需求增加,黄金价格随之大幅上涨。它们还有助于提高黄金市场的流动性和价格发现能力。

Coincidentally, all of these factors are current impediments standing in the way of more widespread crypto adoption and allocation.
巧合的是,所有这些因素都是目前阻碍加密货币更广泛采用和分配的障碍。

  • Initial Flows and Growth: Upon their introduction, gold ETFs witnessed substantial investor interest. For example, the first U.S. gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), launched in November 2004, accumulated over $1 billion in assets in just three days. In its first year, GLD’s assets under management (AUM) soared to over $3 billion.
    初始流量和增长:黄金 ETF 一经推出,就引起了投资者的极大兴趣。例如,2004 年 11 月推出的美国首只黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD),在短短三天内就积累了超过 10 亿美元的资产。在第一年,GLD 的管理资产(AUM)飙升至 30 多亿美元。
  • Current State of Gold ETFs: As of 2023, the AUM of gold ETFs globally stands at approximately $150 billion, demonstrating the profound long-term impact of these investment vehicles on the gold market.
    黄金 ETF 的现状:截至 2023 年,全球黄金 ETF 的资产管理规模约为 1,500 亿美元,这表明这些投资工具对黄金市场具有深远的长期影响。

We know that many investors are justifying a BTC investment allocation under the premise of it serving a similar role as gold in their portfolios. Digital gold, if you will. Don’t take my word for it, this is what was said between legendary investors PTJ and Stanley Druckenmiller during a fireside chat. Given similarities and portfolio roles shared by these assets, we may begin to see history start to rhyme.
我们知道,许多投资者都认为 BTC 在他们的投资组合中扮演着与黄金类似的角色,并以此为前提进行 BTC 投资分配。可以说是数字黄金。别听我瞎说,这是传奇投资者 PTJ 和 Stanley Druckenmiller 在一次炉边谈话中说的话。鉴于这些资产的相似性和在投资组合中的共同作用,我们可能会开始看到历史的韵律。

Concluding Thoughts 结束语

The introduction of a Bitcoin spot ETF is poised to initiate a sea change in the cryptocurrency market, much like the transformative impact ETFs have had on traditional equity markets.
比特币现货 ETF 的推出有望引发加密货币市场的巨变,就像 ETF 对传统股票市场产生的变革性影响一样。

We’ve seen the dramatic growth in passive fund assets, from a mere 12% of equity assets in 2000 to approximately 50% by 2020. This underscores the substantial influence ETFs have over equity markets, and might offer a glimpse into the future trajectory of cryptocurrency investment strategies.
我们已经看到被动基金资产的急剧增长,从 2000 年仅占股票资产的 12% 增长到 2020 年的约 50%。这凸显了 ETF 对股票市场的巨大影响力,同时也让我们看到了加密货币投资策略的未来轨迹。

The phenomenon of passive drift in ETFs, and its consequential impact on market dynamics, cannot be understated. Significant rebalancing within large ETFs has been known to trigger market movements worth billions. These dynamics will provide new opportunities for crypto market participants.
ETF 的被动漂移现象及其对市场动态的影响不容低估。据了解,大型 ETF 的重大再平衡会引发价值数十亿美元的市场波动。这些动态将为加密货币市场参与者提供新的机遇。

We also expect that institutional adoption is likely to be gradual, mirroring the cautious approach historically taken in new and emerging markets. Watching initial demand for these products may provide a useful early signal.
我们还预计,机构的采用很可能是渐进的,这与新兴市场历来采取的谨慎态度如出一辙。观察这些产品的初期需求可能会提供一个有用的早期信号。

And the historical analysis of gold ETFs has been particularly telling. The meteoric rise in the AUM of gold ETFs, from $1 billion in just three days post-launch in 2004 to approximately $150 billion in 2023, and the striking similarities between the assets suggests the potential for Bitcoin to do something similar in the coming years. What will this mean for the price of the orange coin? Probably higher.
对黄金 ETF 的历史分析尤其能说明问题。黄金 ETF 的资产管理规模从 2004 年推出后三天内的 10 亿美元急剧上升到 2023 年的约 1,500 亿美元,资产之间的惊人相似性表明,比特币在未来几年也有可能取得类似的成绩。这对橙色硬币的价格意味着什么?可能会更高。

In our view, integrating these factors—market structure transformation due to the rise of ETFs, the nuances of the active vs. passive management debate, the historical impact of gold ETFs, and the cautious yet optimistic outlook for institutional investment in Bitcoin—provides the best framework for thinking about the post Bitcoin spot ETF approval era coming soon.
我们认为,综合这些因素--ETF兴起带来的市场结构转型、主动管理与被动管理之争的细微差别、黄金ETF的历史影响以及机构投资比特币谨慎而乐观的前景--为思考即将到来的后比特币现货ETF批准时代提供了最佳框架。

This development could signal a major shift in the cryptocurrency landscape, influencing investment behavior, asset valuation, and market dynamics, and we believe investors should plan accordingly. Afterall, the Bitcoin spot ETF is not the only spot ETF on the docket for 2024.
这一发展可能预示着加密货币格局的重大转变,影响投资行为、资产估值和市场动态,我们认为投资者应该做好相应的规划。毕竟,比特币现货 ETF 并不是 2024 年唯一的现货 ETF。

A new challenger soon approaches… the Ethereum spot ETF.
新的挑战者即将到来......以太坊现货 ETF。

 

Key Theme #4: Endless (Solana) Summer
关键主题 4:无尽(索拉纳)之夏

After a brutal 2022, Solana was one of 2023’s biggest winners.
在经历了残酷的 2022 年之后,索拉纳成为 2023 年最大的赢家之一。

SOL’s move was sparked by the broader market rally. BTC and ETH pumped, and SOL pumped even harder as a higher beta play.
SOL 的走势是由大盘反弹引发的。BTC 和 ETH 大涨,而 SOL 作为高贝塔游戏,涨势更猛。

But SOL didn’t just outperform the majors — it blew its closest comps outta the water, too. It’s been a market leader and is now seen by some as heir to Ethereum’s throne.
但是,SOL 不仅跑赢了主要竞争对手,还将最接近的竞争对手甩在了身后。它一直是市场的领导者,现在被一些人视为以太坊的王位继承人。

The question heading into 2024 is whether SOL will continue to outperform. We think so. And in the sections below, we outline three drivers that inform our view:
进入 2024 年,问题在于 SOL 是否会继续保持优异表现。我们认为会。在下面的章节中,我们将概述三个驱动因素,为我们的观点提供参考:

  1. mean reversion 均值回归
  2. market share normalization
    市场份额正常化
  3. narrative shots on goal
    叙事射门

Mean Reversion 均值回复

2024 Predictions: 2024 年预测:

  1. SOL outperforms ETH — SOL/ETH ref: 0.1
    SOL 的表现优于 ETH - SOL/ETH ref: 0.1
  2. BTC outperforms ETH — ETH/BTC ref: 0.05
    BTC 的表现优于 ETH - ETH/BTC ref: 0.05

The mean reversion thesis is easy to grok. Thanks to SBF, SOL got whacked harder than other tokens and suffered a more severe drawdown. Once the market woke up and realized SOL wasn’t going to literal zero, some reversion to the mean was inevitable.
均值回归理论很容易理解。由于 SBF 的存在,SOL 比其他代币受到的冲击更大,缩水也更严重。一旦市场觉醒,意识到 SOL 不会归零,向均值回归是不可避免的。

We’re now at the point where reflexivity kicks in. SOL is no longer some non-consensus ‘Sam coin.’ It’s now seen as perhaps the only viable Ethereum alternative. As a result, many .eth’s are suddenly realizing they’re dangerously underexposed.
我们现在正处于反思的阶段。SOL 不再是某种未达成共识的'山姆币'。它现在可能被视为唯一可行的以太坊替代品。因此,许多 .eth 突然意识到,它们的曝光率极低,非常危险。

SOL might not even need ETH-aligned chasers to outperform in 2024 because its TVL is still farther off the highs than competitors like *checks notes* BSC.
2024 年,SOL 甚至可能不需要与 ETH 结盟的追逐者就能跑赢大市,因为其 TVL 仍比 BSC 等竞争对手偏离高点较远。

There’s still plenty of juice left in the mean reversion trade. This is most apparent with respect to stablecoin market caps.
均值回归交易仍有很大的空间。这一点在稳定币市值方面表现得最为明显。

Solana’s relative youth is likely to blame for its vicious deleveraging. We must remember that SOL is still a young pup in the grizzled eyes of BTC and ETH hodlers. And in uncertain times — e.g. the largest ponzi scheme since Madoff and a bone-crunching bear market — the market seeks out the ‘certainty’ BTC and ETH offer.
Solana 的恶性去杠杆化很可能要归咎于其相对年轻。我们必须记住,在 BTC 和 ETH 玩家灰头土脸的眼中,SOL 还只是一只幼崽。在不确定的时期,例如自麦道夫以来最大的庞氏骗局和令人心碎的熊市,市场会寻求 BTC 和 ETH 所提供的 "确定性"。

In crypto parlance, we call this the Lindy Effect. BTC has survived longer than ETH, so it’s deemed safer. And ETH has survived longer than SOL, so it’s deemed safer. So on and so forth…
用加密货币的术语来说,我们称之为林迪效应。BTC 的存活时间比 ETH 长,所以被认为更安全。而 ETH 的存活时间比 SOL 长,所以被认为更安全。如此等等......

Since last cycle was Solana’s first, it was anything but Lindy. But today — after surviving the cataclysmic collapse of FTX — Solana is much closer to earning a spot alongside BTC and ETH on the Lindy throne. Instead of “BTC and ETH,” 2024 will usher in the “BTC, ETH, and SOL” era.
由于上一个周期是 Solana 的第一个周期,因此它并不是林迪币。但是今天,在经历了 FTX 的大崩盘之后,SOLANA 距离与 BTC 和 ETH 并列林迪宝座的目标更近了一步。2024 年将迎来 "BTC、ETH 和 SOL "时代,而不是 "BTC 和 ETH "时代。

We expect the implications of such a profound psychological shift to go far beyond mean reversion.
我们预计,这种深刻的心理变化所产生的影响将远远超出均值回归的范畴。

Market Share Normalization
市场份额正常化

2024 Predictions: 2024 年预测:

  1. Non-EVM chains make up 50% of onchain TVL
    非 EVM 链占链上 TVL 的 50
  2. Solana mints more NFTs in one week than Ethereum does all year
    索拉纳一周的 NFT 造币量超过以太坊全年的造币量
  3. Solana flips Ethereum in annual NFT volume (USD)
    索拉纳翻转以太坊的年度 NFT 交易量(美元)
  4. Solana flips Ethereum in annual DEX volume (USD)
    索拉纳翻转以太坊的年度 DEX 交易量(美元)

Ethereum Rules Everything Around Me
以太坊统治我周围的一切

Crypto is a technology but also a financial asset. We’ve never seen this before. Yes, we have Facebook and Google, which are publicly traded stonks. But these are corporations with private IP, not foundational technological infrastructure.
加密货币是一种技术,也是一种金融资产。我们以前从未见过这种情况。是的,我们有 Facebook 和谷歌,它们都是上市公司。但这些都是拥有私人知识产权的公司,而不是基础性的技术基础设施。

The fact that blockchains have been financialized from Day 1 has led to some pretty weird outcomes. I mean, is there a single example in the history of technology where the first two entrants remain the two most valuable in perpetuity?
区块链从第一天起就被金融化,这一事实导致了一些非常奇怪的结果。我的意思是,在技术发展史上,有哪一个例子能让前两个进入者永远成为最有价值的两个?

This “oldest is best” dynamic reveals crypto’s immaturity. We are pre-PMF. No one knows what will work, go mainstream, or consistently make money. As a result, we cling to abstractions like “Lindyness.” In such a memetic market, ‘experience’ becomes a useful shelling point.
这种 "最老的就是最好的 "的态势暴露了加密货币的不成熟。我们正处于 "PMF "之前。没有人知道什么会成功、成为主流或持续赚钱。因此,我们坚持 "林地性 "这样的抽象概念。在这样一个充满记忆的市场中,"经验 "成了一个有用的借壳点。

The market will continue to value protocols off narratives and memes until more objective measures materialize. For now, the market remains enamored with Lindyness. And as the eldest smart contract platform, Ethereum is the obvious beneficiary.
在更客观的衡量标准出现之前,市场将继续从叙事和备忘录的角度来看待协议的价值。就目前而言,市场仍然对林代瑞斯(Lindyness)情有独钟。而作为最古老的智能合约平台,以太坊显然是受益者。

Ethereum and its constellation of surrounding stuff — the EVM eco — is valued at an eye-watering premium to everything non-Ethereum.
与非以太坊的所有东西相比,以太坊及其周围的东西--EVM 生态--的价值高得令人瞠目结舌。

Today, 9.5 out of every 10 dollars onchain is EVM-aligned. While all this dough isn’t long ETH in the literal sense, it’s still a vote of confidence — the market is putting capital at risk within the EVM ecosystem.
如今,链上每 10 美元中就有 9.5 美元与 EVM 结盟。虽然这些钱并不是字面意义上的 ETH,但它仍然是一张信任票--市场正在 EVM 生态系统内将资本置于风险之中。

We believe Ethereum’s dominant market share is bound to deteriorate. And as the largest and most vibrant non-EVM ecosystem, we expect Solana to be the main recipient of market share normalization.
我们认为,以太坊的主导市场份额必将恶化。而作为最大、最有活力的非以太坊生态系统,我们预计 Solana 将成为市场份额正常化的主要受益者。

It’s worth reflecting on why the EVM is so dominant. The most obvious reason is its first-mover advantage. This brought Lindyness but also gave Ethereum’s prolific developer ecosystem a head start. Newer chains start from zero — zero track record, zero liquidity, and zero community — and bootstrapping each component takes time.
值得反思的是,为什么电子投票系统如此占主导地位。最明显的原因是其先发优势。这给以太坊带来了林代瑞斯(Lindyness),但也给以太坊多产的开发者生态系统带来了先机。较新的链从零开始--零跟踪记录、零流动性和零社区--每个组件的引导都需要时间。

ETH’s rising price also helped reinforce Ethereum’s dominance. In crypto, fat protocols still reign supreme. The fat protocol thesis argues that, unlike the Internet, where value accrued to the top at the application layer (Google, Facebook, etc.), in blockchain, value will accrue to the bottom protocol layer (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.).
ETH 价格的上涨也有助于巩固以太坊的主导地位。在加密货币领域,"胖协议 "仍然是至高无上的。胖协议理论认为,与互联网不同的是,互联网的价值累积在最上层的应用层(谷歌、Facebook 等),而在区块链中,价值将累积在最底层的协议层(比特币、以太坊等)。

A more cynical version of the fat protocol thesis is it serves as a convenient excuse for capital allocators. Similar to the old TradFi adage, “nobody ever got fired for buying IBM” — in crypto, “nobody ever got fired for buying ETH.” And since our industry is still pre-PMF, why take concentrated risk at the app layer when you can just buy ETH and get index-like exposure to everything built on top?
对于 "肥胖协议 "这一论点,一个更愤世嫉俗的说法是,它为资本分配者提供了一个方便的借口。类似于 TradFi 的一句老话:"从来没有人因为购买 IBM 而被炒鱿鱼",在加密货币领域,"从来没有人因为购买 ETH 而被炒鱿鱼"。既然我们的行业仍处于 PMF 之前,为什么要在应用程序层集中承担风险,而只需购买 ETH,就能获得类似于指数的风险敞口,投资于构建在其上的一切呢?

Over the years, ETH’s rising price has been a flywheel: number go up → more devs → more apps → more users → number go up. Since Ethereum is the oldest L1, its flywheel has been spinning the longest. But this dynamic also exists in other ecosystems — it just takes time to get going.
多年来,以太坊的价格上涨一直是一个飞轮:数量上升→更多开发者→更多应用程序→更多用户→数量上升。由于以太坊是历史最悠久的 L1,其飞轮转动的时间也最长。但这种动态也存在于其他生态系统中--只是需要时间来启动。

SOL’s rising price — now on its second cycle — is finally starting to pay dividends. Solana has cultivated a loyal developer base, many “only possible on Solana” apps, and a fierce “manlet” community. For non-Solana devs, it’s a compelling mix.
SOL 的价格不断上涨(现在已进入第二个周期),终于开始带来回报。Solana 已经培养了一批忠实的开发者、许多 "只有在 Solana 上才能实现 "的应用程序和一个活跃的 "manlet "社区。对于非 Solana 开发人员来说,这是一个引人注目的组合。

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Does Rhyme
历史不会重演,但会押韵

Outside of Google Search, finding another major technology with >95% market share is near impossible. It’s an anomaly.
除谷歌搜索外,几乎不可能找到另一种市场份额大于 95% 的主要技术。这是一种反常现象。

Even Google — a once-in-a-generation business that absolutely prints cash — would blush at Ethereum’s dominance.
即使是谷歌--一个绝对能印制现金的千载难逢的企业--也会对以太坊的主导地位感到脸红。

Most new technologies start with a clear leader, who, through first mover advantage, stakes a claim on the lion’s market share. But over time, competition arrives and the market fragments.As technologies mature, new winners emerge and consolidate market share as their network effects kick in. We saw this in the OS wars (above) and the mobile wave (below). This delayed winner-take-most dynamic also demonstrates how first-mover advantage doesn’t matter nearly as much as people think it matters.These new technologies are, by definition, highly disruptive and incredibly difficult to predict. Take mobile phones. In the early 2000s, everyone thought mobile phones needed a keyboard because nobody had ever seen one without it. The upshot here is predicting the future is hard! And anointing “winners” in the first inning is a fool’s errand.
大多数新技术一开始都有一个明显的领导者,他凭借先发优势占据了大部分市场份额。但随着时间的推移,竞争也随之而来,市场逐渐分化。随着技术的成熟,新的赢家不断涌现,并在网络效应的作用下巩固市场份额。我们在操作系统大战(上图)和移动浪潮(下图)中看到了这一点。这种 "赢家通吃 "的延迟动态也说明,先发优势并不像人们想象的那么重要。以移动电话为例。本世纪初,每个人都认为手机需要键盘,因为没有人见过没有键盘的手机。由此可见,预测未来很难!而在第一局就指定 "赢家 "则是痴人说梦。

Another lesson we can draw from history is the market values differentiation. In the mobile OS wars, Apple’s iOS established itself as the premium, high-end offering. But Android countered by positioning itself as a more accessible, open-source alternative.
我们可以从历史中吸取的另一个教训是,市场重视差异化。在移动操作系统大战中,苹果公司的 iOS 将自己定位为高端产品。但安卓系统则将自己定位为更易于使用的开源替代产品,以此进行反击。

In the end, Android won a majority of the market share, while iOS captures most of the revenue.
最终,Android 赢得了大部分市场份额,而 iOS 则获得了大部分收入。

A more recent platform shift — cloud computing — shows the market’s preference for redundancy. Similar to blockchains, cloud computing serves as a base layer of technological infrastructure. If your cloud goes down, you go down.
最近的一个平台转变--云计算--表明了市场对冗余的偏好。与区块链类似,云计算是技术基础设施的基础层。如果你的云计算瘫痪了,你也就瘫痪了。

The market has logically de-risked this by building redundancy. As the technological substrate that underpins web3, blockchains will be no different. A multichain world is coming — it’s just not evenly distributed.
市场顺理成章地通过建立冗余来降低风险。作为网络3的技术基础,区块链也不会例外。多链世界即将到来,只是分布不均而已。

Crypto’s app layer resembles the evolution of past technologies more closely than its infra layer. The app layer is littered with examples of incumbents failing to innovate and being usurped by new entrants. It remains unclear to us what law of physics prevents this same dynamic from playing out on the infra layer.
与基础层相比,加密货币的应用层与过去技术的演变更为相似。在应用层中,不乏在位者创新失败、被新进入者篡夺的例子。我们还不清楚是什么物理定律阻止了同样的动态在底层上演。

The Flipping Future 翻转未来

There will be many flippenings before the flippening. We expect leading indicators on Solana, like users, volume, and transactions, to all flip Ethereum before we get the big dramatic TVL and market cap flippenings, which will lag more real-time data points.
在翻转之前会有很多翻转。我们预计索拉纳上的领先指标,如用户、交易量和交易额,都会在大幅翻转 TVL 和市值之前翻转以太坊,这将滞后于更多的实时数据点。

In short, we hold three beliefs:
简而言之,我们有三个信念:

  1. The cheapest, fastest, and easiest-to-use L1 will be the most widely used
    最便宜、最快、最易用的 L1 将被最广泛地使用
  2. The most widely used L1 will be the most valuable
    使用最广泛的 L1 将是最有价值的
  3. And as L1 usage changes, valuations will follow
    随着 L1 使用的变化,估值也会随之变化

We’re already seeing this thesis take shape. Take NFTs. Thanks to state compression, Solana can handle significantly more NFT mints than Ethereum. In fact, Solana minted more NFTs in one month than Ethereum did all year.
我们已经看到了这一理论的雏形。以 NFT 为例。由于采用了状态压缩技术,Solana 可以处理比以太坊多得多的 NFT 铸币。事实上,Solana 在一个月内铸造的 NFT 比以太坊全年铸造的还要多。

As a result, NFTs are no longer just PFPs on Solana. They are many things, like cheap digital collectibles (DRiP) and messaging sticker packs (Dialect). These are fundamentally novel experiences uniquely enabled by Solana’s larger design space. And, importantly, these apps are onboarding new users who were either priced out or uninterested in legacy apps.
因此,NFT 在 Solana 上不再只是 PFP。它们可以是很多东西,比如廉价数字收藏品(DRiP)和信息贴纸包(Dialect)。这些都是 Solana 更大的设计空间所带来的全新体验。而且,重要的是,这些应用正在吸引新用户,这些用户要么被传统应用所淘汰,要么对传统应用不感兴趣。

We see the same dynamic in DeFi. Degens can actually use Solana DeFi, thanks to its low fees and speed. It’s why Solana now boasts ~2x the number of traders as Ethereum.
我们在 DeFi 中也看到了同样的动态。由于费用低、速度快,Degens 实际上可以使用 Solana DeFi。这就是为什么 Solana 现在的交易者数量是以太坊的 2 倍。

And while notional volume still lags, we believe it’s only a matter of time (or airdrops) before it closes the gap.
虽然名义交易量仍然落后,但我们相信缩小差距只是时间问题(或空投问题)。

Solana now exceeds or is at parity with Ethereum across many verticals, including:
现在,Solana 在许多垂直领域都超过了以太坊,或与以太坊不相上下,其中包括:

  • DEX Volume DEX 音量
  • Stablecoin Volume 稳定币交易量
  • Active Addresses 活动地址
  • NFT Volume (mints + trading)
    NFT 交易量(铸币厂 + 交易)
  • Transaction Count 交易计数

In summary and summation, we believe the days of EVM domination are numbered. If past is prologue, Ethereum will soon face fierce competition. L2s, appchains, and Solana all promise to play a role. But we expect Solana to be the chief beneficiary of the EVM’s decline. This is already showing up in lower-level data. And in 2024, we expect Solana’s emergence as a near-peer to Ethereum to be visible in higher-level data like TVL and market cap. Gradually, then suddenly…
综上所述,我们认为,EVM 的统治时代已经一去不复返了。如果前事不忘,后事之师,以太坊很快就会面临激烈的竞争。L2s、应用链和 Solana 都有望发挥作用。但我们预计,Solana 将成为 EVM 衰退的主要受益者。这一点已经在较低级别的数据中显现出来。到 2024 年,我们预计 Solana 作为以太坊的近邻,将在 TVL 和市值等更高级别的数据中显现出来。逐渐,然后突然...

Narrative Shots on Goal
叙述性射门

2024 Predictions: 2024 年预测:

Solana will benefit from more narratives than any other L1.
索拉纳将比任何其他 L1 从更多的叙述中获益。

  1. DeFi Summer-style liquidity mining, airdrops, and wealth creation
    DeFi 夏令营式的流动性挖掘、空投和财富创造
  2. Only Possible On Solana 只可能在索拉纳
  3. The Stake Must Flow 必须让利害关系流动起来

Double-Edged Narratives 双面叙事

Hailing from my home state of New Hampshire, Robert Frost taught us to “take the road less traveled.” It’s a catchy IRL aphorism since humans operate in meatspace and can only take one road: left or right. But technology operates in the world of bits — it can actually take both roads: left and right. Bits are not bounded by the same constraints as atoms. Why take both roads? Well, because you don’t know which is better!
罗伯特-弗罗斯特来自我的家乡新罕布什尔州,他教导我们要 "少走弯路"。这是一句朗朗上口的谚语,因为人类在肉体空间中活动,只能走一条路:向左或向右。但技术是在比特世界中运行的,它实际上可以走两条路:向左和向右。比特不受原子的限制。为什么要走两条路呢?因为你不知道哪条路更好!

New Hampshire’s White Mountains during the fall
秋季的新罕布什尔州白山

The future is path dependent. And there’s a huge amount of uncertainty regarding disruptive technologies like crypto. The only way to manage this uncertainty is to compile a portfolio of parallel bets. The goal being to replicate the diversity, unpredictability, and dynamism of the market at large, thereby maximizing the odds of success in any future state.
未来取决于路径。加密货币等颠覆性技术存在巨大的不确定性。管理这种不确定性的唯一方法就是编制一个平行下注的投资组合。这样做的目的是复制整个市场的多样性、不可预测性和活力,从而最大限度地提高在任何未来状态下的成功几率。

In the context of smart contract blockchains, these chains aim to be world computers. A substrate upon which anything can be built. As Anatoly often jokes, he never could have guessed that monkey pictures and dog coins would be crypto’s most popular use cases in the year 2023.
就智能合约区块链而言,这些链旨在成为世界计算机。这是一个可以构建任何东西的基底。阿纳托利经常开玩笑说,他永远也想不到,2023 年,猴子图片和狗币会成为加密货币最流行的使用案例。

While all the major L1s are open and permissionless — meaning anyone can build anything — they optimize for different things.
虽然所有主要的 L1 都是开放和无许可的,也就是说任何人都可以构建任何东西,但它们针对不同的东西进行了优化。

  • Bitcoin is betting people will value censorship-resistant digital value
    比特币打赌人们会重视抗审查的数字价值
  • Ethereum is betting people will value censorship-resistant access and deflationary, “ultra-sound” money
    以太坊打赌人们会重视抗审查访问和通货紧缩的 "超稳健 "货币
  • Solana is betting people will value a global state machine operating at the speed of light
    索拉纳打赌人们会重视以光速运行的全球国家机器

Each of these bets comes with a different set of optimizations. Bitcoin has a 21M fixed supply to emphasize its “digital scarcity” element. Ethereum implemented EIP-1559 — “the burn” — to make ETH a deflationary asset. And Solana has higher hardware requirements to enable better performance.
每种赌注都有不同的优化方案。比特币有 2100 万的固定供应量,以强调其 "数字稀缺性 "元素。以太坊实施了 EIP-1559 -- "燃烧"--使 ETH 成为一种通货紧缩资产。索拉纳对硬件的要求更高,以实现更好的性能。

Downstream of these optimizations are narratives and use cases. Bitcoin’s narrative and use cases remain very much focused on BTC, the asset, and not much else. It prioritizes stability over dynamism. Ethereum is focused on becoming a settlement layer and ETH as deflationary money. Solana aims to synchronize information at the speed of light and use SOL as a spam filter.
这些优化的下游是叙述和使用案例。比特币的叙事和用例仍然非常专注于 BTC 这一资产,而不是其他。比特币优先考虑稳定性,而非动态性。以太坊的重点是成为结算层,ETH 是通货紧缩货币。Solana 的目标是以光速同步信息,并将 SOL 用作垃圾邮件过滤器。

Narratives can be useful shelling points and rallying cries for communities. But they can also be restrictive. Ethereum’s “ultra-sound money” narrative offers a case in point. EIP-1559 was intended to make Ethereum’s transactions more predictable, which it has! But it also (perhaps inadvertently) led to a myopic fixation on the burn. The more ETH burned, the better. As a consequence, computationally expensive activities that burn a lot of ETH are celebrated. While cheaper activities are less exciting to ETH bagholders.
对社区而言,叙事可以是有用的发声点和号召力。但它们也可能具有限制性。以太坊的 "超音速货币 "叙事就是一个很好的例子。EIP-1559 的目的是使以太坊的交易更具可预测性,它做到了!但它也(也许是无意中)导致了对烧钱的近视。以太坊烧得越多越好。因此,烧掉大量以太坊的计算昂贵的活动受到了欢迎。而对以太坊持有者来说,便宜的活动就不那么令人兴奋了。

Today, Ethereum finds itself in an unenviable position: its narrative is parasitic to its future success. Its narrative demands that it be maximally extractive — high fees are better than low fees. But its future success hinges on its ability to scale and cheaply process transactions en masse. Even if we ignore the mental gymnastics at play here, Ethereum’s scaling roadmap — its Firedancer — is nowhere near ready for prime time. L2s and danksharding may save Ethereum sometime in the distant future, but not today. For now, Ethereum is narrative-poor.
如今,以太坊发现自己处于一个不尴不尬的境地:它的叙事对其未来的成功具有寄生性。以太坊的理念要求它最大限度地榨取资源--高收费比低收费更好。但以太坊未来的成功取决于其大规模廉价处理交易的能力。即使我们忽略这里的思维体操,以太坊的扩展路线图--它的 "火舞"--也远远没有准备好进入黄金时代。L2 和 danksharding 可能会在遥远的将来拯救以太坊,但不是现在。目前,以太坊还缺乏叙事能力。

On the other hand, Solana is narrative-rich. We will discuss three of Solana’s most promising narratives below and highlight how they are enabled from the top down yet proliferate from the bottom up.
另一方面,索拉纳的叙事丰富。我们将在下文讨论索拉纳最有前途的三种叙事方式,并重点介绍这些叙事方式是如何自上而下促成,又自下而上扩散的。

Solana’s DeFi Summer 索拉娜的 DeFi 之夏

Note: we covered this narrative at length in Ghosts of Cycles Past. Read that report for a deep-dive.
注:我们在《过去周期的幽灵》中详细介绍了这一叙述。如需深入了解,请阅读该报告。

Last cycle, Solana pumped too fast.
上一个周期,索拉娜抽水太快。

There literally wasn’t enough time for builders to build stuff. By the time apps went live and dropped tokens, the market was already rolling over. As a result, Solana never really had its “DeFi Summer” moment.
建设者们根本没有足够的时间来建造东西。当应用程序上线并投放代币时,市场已经翻天覆地。因此,Solana 从未真正迎来 "DeFi 之夏"。

Yes, a lot of SOL wealth was created, but it was highly concentrated and never really permeated the broader DeFi ecosystem. Solana’s low TVL — which *checks notes* is still below Arbitrum — bears the scars of last cycle’s turbo pump-and-dump.
是的,SOL 创造了大量财富,但这些财富高度集中,从未真正渗透到更广泛的 DeFi 生态系统中。索拉纳的 TVL 较低,*检查笔记*仍低于 Arbitrum,这是上一轮涡轮增压抽水后留下的伤疤。

Solana also failed to make its power users rich and convert them into patrons of the chain. These are the people who seed projects, LP, and, more generally, proselytize the chain. Power users were central to Ethereum’s growth but have so far been MIA on Solana because not enough manlets “made it.” Hence, all the “Solana is for the poors” memes.
索拉纳也未能使其权力用户致富,并将他们转化为链条的赞助人。这些人是项目的种子用户、LP,更广泛地说,是链的拥护者。权力用户是以太坊发展的核心,但到目前为止,他们在 Solana 上还没有出现,因为没有足够多的人 "成功"。因此,就有了 "Solana 是穷人的 "这种说法。

Ethereum’s DeFi Summer set off a gold rush of new users and fresh capital flows. In just a few months, the stuff you could do onchain exploded. The ensuing speculation cemented Ethereum as the network.
以太坊的 DeFi Summer 掀起了新用户和新资本流动的淘金热。在短短几个月内,你可以在链上做的事情呈爆炸式增长。随之而来的投机行为巩固了以太坊的网络地位。

All this uponly resulted in serious onchain wealth creation. DeFi Summer minted many millionaires. And importantly, the nouveau riche became patrons of Ethereum. They spent their spoils supporting other projects, buying NFTs, and, more broadly, engaging in onchain activity. This helped bootstrap Ethereum’s now vibrant economy.
所有这一切都导致了严重的链上财富创造。DeFi Summer 造就了许多百万富翁。重要的是,这些新贵成为了以太坊的赞助人。他们用自己的财富支持其他项目,购买 NFT,并更广泛地参与链上活动。这有助于推动以太坊现在充满活力的经济。

We’ve been talking about how Solana is set up for a similar DeFi Summer moment. Points were a prelude. And now all of the ingredients are there: users, pre-token projects, and core supporting infra. In fact, Jito’s recent airdrop may have been Solana’s “Compound moment.” Ever since JTO dropped, Solana DeFi has been on a straight heater.
我们一直在讨论索拉纳是如何为类似的 "DeFi 之夏 "时刻做好准备的。积分是前奏。而现在,所有的要素都具备了:用户、预标记项目和核心支持基础设施。事实上,捷通最近的空投可能就是索拉纳的 "复合时刻"。自从 JTO 发布以来,Solana DeFi 就一直在持续升温。

We expect future airdrops to fuel the fire. Jupiter will likely be the biggest and arrive sometime within the next month. MarginFi will happen in Q1. We also have Tensor, Kamino, Drift, and Meteora (among others) to look forward to.
我们期待着未来的空投会火上浇油。木星 "可能是最大的空投,将在下个月的某个时候到来。MarginFi 将在第一季度出现。此外,我们还将看到 Tensor、Kamino、Drift 和 Meteora(等等)。

The way to play Solana’s airdrop szn is simple. Stay curious and explore everything. But do so safely — create a new burner wallet for each app and size your positions properly. It’s not worth losing your whole stack over “points.” This is only the beginning. For the manlets who hodled through the bear: they will say you got lucky, but we know there’s no such thing.
玩索拉娜空投游戏的方法很简单。保持好奇心,探索一切。但要注意安全--为每个应用程序创建一个新的刻录钱包,并适当调整仓位大小。不值得为了 "点数 "而损失全部资金。这仅仅是个开始。对于那些在熊市中蹒跚而行的人来说:他们会说你运气好,但我们知道没有这样的事。

One final note. The thing that sticks out when looking at the order of events in the OG DeFi Summer is how quickly all the tokens launched post-COMP. This stuff moves fast. So, when protocols start liquidity mining — the kids call it “points” these days — pay attention. That usually means airdrops and liquid tokens are inbound. We expect things to only get crazier from here — stay steady lads.
最后一点。在观察 OG DeFi Summer 的事件顺序时,最突出的一点是所有代币在 COMP 结束后推出的速度有多快。这种情况发生得很快。因此,当协议开始进行流动性挖掘(现在孩子们称之为 "点数")时,就要注意了。这通常意味着空投和流动代币即将到来。我们预计事情只会越来越疯狂--稳住,伙计们。

 

Only Possible On Solana
只可能在索拉纳

Note: we covered this narrative at length in Return of the Coins. Read that report for a deep-dive.
注:我们在《硬币的回归》中详细介绍了这一叙述。如需深入了解,请阅读该报告。

Blockchains have been around for 15 years and still haven’t gone mainstream. Why? Well, people put forward a buncha reasons. Regulation. Volatility. Complexity. Scalability. Or the fact that blockchains are a backend technology, not a friendly front end like Facebook. All of these are compelling, but scalability stands out as perhaps the most deterministic way to judge blockchain viability. They can either handle a lotta activity or they can’t; it’s binary.
区块链出现已有 15 年,但仍未成为主流。为什么?人们提出了很多理由。监管。波动性。复杂性。可扩展性。或者区块链是一种后端技术,而不是像Facebook那样的友好前端。所有这些都很有说服力,但可扩展性可能是判断区块链可行性的最确定的方法。它们要么能处理大量活动,要么不能;这是二进制。

To date, blockchains have struggled to scale. Bitcoin averages circa 5 TPS, while Ethereum isn’t much better at around 16 TPS.
迄今为止,区块链一直在努力扩大规模。比特币平均约为 5 TPS,而以太坊也好不到哪里去,约为 16 TPS。

Solana was the first blockchain to scale.
Solana 是第一个实现规模化的区块链。

Thanks to its scale, Solana enables fundamentally new stuff. Enter the “Only Possible On Solana” meme. OPOS challenges developers to build from first principles. It asks: what’s possible on Solana that’s impossible everywhere else?
得益于其规模,索拉纳可以从根本上实现新的功能。进入 "只有在 Solana 上才有可能 "的主题。OPOS 挑战开发人员从第一原则出发进行构建。它问:在 Solana 上有什么是其他地方不可能实现的?

The meme is salient because, to date, most Solana applications have been EVM copycats. We’ve yet to see many apps push the bounds of Solana’s larger design space. We could discuss many OPOS applications, but we’ll stick to five.
这个流行语之所以引人注目,是因为迄今为止,大多数 Solana 应用程序都是 EVM 的山寨版。我们还没有看到有多少应用突破了 Solana 更大的设计空间。我们可以讨论许多 OPOS 应用程序,但我们只讨论五个。

First is Jupiter — Solana’s largest and most popular aggregator. Jupiter’s smart order router takes advantage of Solana’s speed and low fees to route orders.
首先是 Jupiter - Solana 最大、最受欢迎的聚合器。Jupiter 的智能订单路由器利用 Solana 的速度和低费用优势对订单进行路由。

On other chains, routing an order across this many pools would take forever and be prohibitively expensive. On Solana, it’s trivial. OPOS.
在其他连锁店,要在这么多池中路由一个订单需要很长时间,而且成本高得惊人。而在索拉纳,这是微不足道的。OPOS。

Next up is Phoenix — Solana’s top central limit order book (CLOB) DEX. Phoenix’s design helps market markers remain profitable while offering tight spreads to takers (retail tradoors).
接下来是 Phoenix - Solana 的顶级中央限价订单簿(CLOB)DEX。Phoenix 的设计有助于市场标记者保持盈利,同时为承销商(零售交易商)提供紧密的点差。

Because of their high throughput, CLOBs aren’t feasible on Ethereum, so AMMs were invented as a workaround. AMMs are useful for long-tail assets, but CLOBs are superior for highly traded pairs that benefit from more granular liquidity provision vs the blunt approach AMMs take. OPOS.
由于吞吐量大,CLOB 在以太坊上不可行,因此发明了 AMM 作为一种变通办法。AMMs 对于长尾资产很有用,但 CLOBs 对于交易量大的货币对更有优势,因为这些货币对受益于更细化的流动性提供,而 AMMs 采取的是直截了当的方法。OPOS。

The third example is DRiP — a creator platform for collectibles. DRiP leverages Solana’s state compression in order to mint thousands of free cNFTs for its 500,000+ user base.
第三个例子是收藏品创作平台 DRiP。DRiP 利用 Solana 的状态压缩技术,为其 50 多万用户群制造了成千上万的免费 cNFT。

DRiP was one of the first apps to subsidize NFT mints at scale — a luxury that’s only possible thanks to Solana’s ultra-cheap minting fees. OPOS.
DRiP 是首批大规模补贴 NFT 造币厂的应用程序之一--这要归功于 Solana 超低价的造币费。OPOS。

Numero cuatro is Helium — a decentralized wireless protocol that just launched a nationwide $20/month unlimited phone plan. The plan is 87% cheaper than the average American’s cellular bill.
第四位是 Helium--一种去中心化的无线协议,它刚刚在全国范围内推出了每月 20 美元的无限电话计划。该计划比普通美国人的手机账单便宜 87%。

Helium actually ran its own blockchain before realizing Solana would be easier, faster, and cheaper. When Helium migrated, it essentially had to turducken one blockchain inside another. Check out Breakpoint talks one and two for more. The TLDR is Helium leveraged Solana’s state compression to mint ~1 million NFTs to represent its IRL hotspots. Notably, this historic burst of activity went completely unnoticed on the network. OPOS.
在意识到 Solana 更简单、更快速、更便宜之前,Helium 实际上运行着自己的区块链。当 Helium 迁移时,它基本上是把一个区块链变成了另一个区块链。更多信息,请查看断点会谈一和会谈二。总而言之,Helium 利用 Solana 的状态压缩功能,铸造了约 100 万个 NFT 来代表其 IRL 热点。值得注意的是,网络上完全没有注意到这一历史性的活动爆发。OPOS.

The fifth and final ‘Only Possible On Solana’ example is Code. Admittedly, Code is a personal favorite; check out Return of the Coins for a deep dive. Code is a Solana-based wallet that powers instant, reliable and private payments. The Code team has built three consumer products: digital paper cash, cash links, and micropayments for the web.
第五个也是最后一个 "只有在索拉纳才能实现 "的例子是《代码》。诚然,Code 是我个人的最爱;请查看《Return of the Coins》,了解更多详情。Code 是一个基于 Solana 的钱包,支持即时、可靠和私密支付。Code 团队开发了三种消费产品:数字纸币现金、现金链接和网络小额支付。

Code is the best crypto payments app I’ve ever seen. It’s one of the only apps I’ve shown to normie friends and family. It’s like Venmo — payments are free, instant, and reliable. OPOS.
Code 是我见过的最好的加密货币支付应用程序。它是我唯一向普通朋友和家人展示过的应用程序之一。它就像 Venmo - 支付免费、即时、可靠。OPOS.

The Stake Must Flow
必须让利害关系流动起来

Note: we covered this narrative at length in Ghosts of Cycles Past. Read that report for a deep-dive.
注:我们在《过去周期的幽灵》中详细介绍了这一叙述。如需深入了解,请阅读该报告。

We believe liquid staking offers the single biggest opportunity to boost Solana’s TVL and DeFi yields. And we expect Jito to play a key role in bringing liquid stake online.
我们认为,流动股权为提高索拉纳的 TVL 和 DeFi 收益率提供了一个最大的机会。我们希望捷通能在液体赌注的上线方面发挥关键作用。

LSTs have been a critical part of Ethereum’s DeFi growth.
LST 是以太坊 DeFi 增长的关键部分。

They are equally important on Solana, where LSTs are the most popular collateral type across many DeFi protocols.
它们在 Solana 上同样重要,在许多 DeFi 协议中,LST 是最受欢迎的抵押品类型。

The difference between Ethereum and Solana’s LST markets is their size. Despite having the advantage of starting off as a proof-of-stake layer 1, liquid staking on Solana is significantly less popular than Ethereum. Compared to Ethereum, Solana has a higher percentage of staked SOL but a lower percentage of liquid staked SOL.
以太坊和 Solana 的 LST 市场的区别在于它们的规模。尽管 Solana 具有从股权证明 1 层开始的优势,但它的流动认购明显不如以太坊流行。与以太坊相比,Solana 的权益证明 SOL 比例较高,但流动权益证明 SOL 比例较低。

24% of Ethereum’s total supply is staked. But 40% is liquid staked — 5x more than Solana. More liquid stake means more DeFi liquidity, which catalyzes critical onchain activity like borrowing and lending.
以太坊总供应量的 24% 是定桩的。但其中 40% 是流动赌注,是索拉纳的 5 倍。更多的流动赌注意味着更多的 DeFi 流动性,而 DeFi 流动性会催化借贷等重要的链上活动。

If Solana were to go from 7% to 15% liquid staking penetration, Solana’s DeFi liquidity would jump 33%. If it were to reach parity with Ethereum (40% liquid staked), available liquidity would more than double. We’re talking gigachad size here.
如果 Solana 的流动性渗透率从 7% 提高到 15%,那么 Solana 的 DeFi 流动性将跃升 33%。如果能与以太坊(40% 的流动性)持平,可用流动性将增加一倍以上。我们现在讨论的是千兆规模。

Solana devs are well aware of LSTs untapped potential and Jito is leading the charge here. To understand Jito, imagine if Lido and Flashbots had a baby on Solana – that’s Jito. Ceteris wrote a great technical deep dive on Jito in Solana the Monolith. The TLDR is Jito built a Solana mempool.
Solana 开发人员非常清楚 LST 尚未开发的潜力,而 Jito 正是其中的佼佼者。要了解 Jito,想象一下如果 Lido 和 Flashbots 在 Solana 上生了个孩子,那就是 Jito。Ceteris 在《Solana the Monolith》一书中对 Jito 进行了深入的技术探讨。简而言之,就是吉托建立了一个索拉纳记忆库。

With Jito, searchers can see the transactions coming in, simulate what’s going to happen, and then create a bundle around them to ensure they get executed atomically. These bundles then get priority access to the leader through a separate processing pipeline with a high success rate. Searchers’ execution can now be based on the highest auction bid vs a probabilistic guarantee through spamming.
有了 Jito,搜索者可以看到即将到来的事务,模拟将要发生的事情,然后围绕这些事务创建一个捆绑包,确保它们以原子方式执行。然后,这些捆绑包通过一个单独的处理管道优先访问领导者,成功率很高。现在,搜索器的执行可以基于最高拍卖出价,也可以通过垃圾邮件获得概率保证。

The upshot is Jito reduces spam by incentivizing would-be spammers to compete in auctions and boosts staking yields by democratizing access to MEV capture on Solana.
其结果是,Jito 通过激励潜在的垃圾邮件发送者参与拍卖竞争来减少垃圾邮件,并通过使 Solana 上的 MEV 捕获访问民主化来提高定金收益。

Jito is designed to be a flywheel. More stake → stronger transaction execution guarantees → more transaction flow → more MEV → more yield → more stake. Multicoin wrote a nice blog post on this dynamic.
Jito 被设计成一个飞轮。更多的赌注→更强的交易执行保证→更多的交易流→更多的 MEV→更多的收益→更多的赌注。Multicoin 就这一动态写了一篇不错的博文。

So far, Jito is executing on all fronts. TVL is over $545 million. Weekly bundles surpassed 3.3 million. And 750+ searchers are now competing in Jito’s auctions. The flywheel is spinning.
到目前为止,智多星在各条战线上都执行得很好。TVL 超过 5.45 亿美元。每周捆绑销售额超过 330 万。现在有 750 多名搜索者参与了捷通的拍卖活动。飞轮正在转动。

Jito’s success is inextricably tied to that of Solana’s DeFi ecosystem. More onchain activity means more MEV. It’s no surprise that Jito was the first to market with their token. The airdrop — the largest ever on Solana — has so far resulted in a Cambrian explosion of activity. Future historians may one day speak of two Solana ages — before and after Jito.
Jito 的成功与 Solana 的 DeFi 生态系统密不可分。更多的链上活动意味着更多的 MEV。Jito 率先将其代币推向市场也就不足为奇了。这次空投是索拉纳有史以来规模最大的一次,到目前为止已经引发了寒武纪式的活动爆炸。未来的历史学家有一天可能会提到两个 Solana 时代--在 Jito 之前和之后。

We believe Jito and Solana will have a symbiotic relationship going forward, feeding off each other and growing the pie together. As Solana’s DeFi Summer takes shape, more and more economic activity will move onchain. Inevitable arbs and market dislocations will ensure, generating MEV for Jito’s searchers and liquid stakers. This, in turn, will boost trading returns and staking yields, which should bring even more liquid stake online. Jito knows: the stake must flow.
我们相信,在未来,Jito 和 Solana 将建立一种共生关系,互相取长补短,共同做大蛋糕。随着 Solana 的 DeFi Summer 逐渐成形,越来越多的经济活动将转移到链上。不可避免的暴动和市场混乱将确保为 Jito 的搜索者和液体存储者带来 MEV。反过来,这也将提高交易回报率和赌注收益率,从而带来更多的流动赌注。捷通知道:赌注必须流动。

 

Key Theme #5: E.V.M. – Everything’s Very Messy
关键主题 5:E.V.M. - 一切都很混乱

While we recognize Ethereum as the most resilient (“Lindy”) among L1 blockchains, it no longer stands as the clear-cut top choice for L1 investment as we move into the next cycle. This is unfamiliar footing for the Ethereum ecosystem.
虽然我们承认以太坊是 L1 区块链中最有弹性的("Lindy"),但在进入下一个周期时,它不再是 L1 投资的明确首选。对于以太坊生态系统来说,这是一个陌生的领域。

Asset Appeal & Investability
资产吸引力和可投资性

The appeal and investability of an asset depends in part on how easily the prevailing investment thesis can be understood by the masses. In the aftermath of the 2017 market cycle, advocating for Ethereum and the EVM thesis was relatively simple.
一种资产的吸引力和可投资性在一定程度上取决于大众对主流投资理论的理解程度。在 2017 年市场周期之后,倡导以太坊和 EVM 理论相对简单。

“Ethereum killers” (e.g., EOS, NEO, ADA) largely failed to meet expectations. For those looking to invest and allocate to the L1 thesis and the rise of decentralized applications (dApps), Ethereum was the obvious choice (alongside a selection of leading DeFi blue chip assets such as Synthetix, Aave, Compound, etc.).
"以太坊杀手"(如 EOS、NEO、ADA)在很大程度上未能达到预期。对于那些希望投资和配置 L1 理论以及去中心化应用(dApps)崛起的人来说,以太坊是不二之选(还有一些领先的 DeFi 蓝筹资产,如 Synthetix、Aave、Compound 等)。

For a bit of extra risk and market beta exposure, some users flocked towards the top NFT collections and meme coins. But holding ETH was the most straightforward strategy to get exposure to everything being built on top.
为了获得额外的风险和市场贝塔风险,一些用户涌向了顶级的 NFT 系列和 meme 币。但是,持有 ETH 是最直接的策略,可以接触到上面正在构建的一切。

Allocating to the EVM investment thesis delivered substantial returns for those who got involved. But the landscape has evolved since then, and the EVM thesis is a bit more confusing and complex now than arguably any time in the past.
EVM投资理论为参与者带来了丰厚的回报。但自那以后,情况发生了变化,现在的 EVM 理论比过去任何时候都更加混乱和复杂。

The proliferation of L2 solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync are attempting to address issues like high gas fees and network congestion — but it also fragments attention and capital for those seeking the highest return potential on Ethereum exposure.
Arbitrum、Optimism 和 zkSync 等 L2 解决方案的涌现,正试图解决高昂的天然气费用和网络拥堵等问题,但这也分散了那些寻求以太坊最高潜在回报者的注意力和资金。

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In its simplest form, allocating to the EVM thesis is inherently more difficult than some of the other L1s like Solana — or even Avalanche — due to the increasing amount of optionality for investors to express their preferences.
就最简单的形式而言,由于投资者表达偏好的可选性越来越多,因此与其他一些 L1(如索拉纳,甚至雪崩)相比,分配给 EVM 理论本身就更加困难。

This evolution has also resulted in fragmented liquidity within the Ethereum ecosystem.
这种演变也导致了以太坊生态系统内流动性的分散。

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Ethereum 以太坊
Arbitrum 仲裁
Polygon 多边形
Optimism 乐观主义
Base 基地
zkSync Era ZkSync 时代

Liquidity is fickle and tends to follow incentives. While liquidity can easily shift from one L2 to another, relocating dApps is far more challenging. This creates a dilemma for developers in choosing the most suitable L2.
流动性是善变的,往往会跟随激励机制。虽然流动性很容易从一个 L2 转移到另一个 L2,但迁移 dApp 却更具挑战性。这让开发者在选择最合适的 L2 时进退两难。

Developing separate versions of a dApp for different L2s further fragments the landscape, diminishing potential network effects.
为不同的 L2 开发不同版本的 dApp 会进一步削弱潜在的网络效应。

This complexity also detracts from the user experience. Engaging with multiple L2s is more intricate and cumbersome than interacting with a single, unified blockchain. Users face challenges such as navigating different wallet interfaces, understanding diverse fee structures, and learning to bridge assets between networks.
这种复杂性也影响了用户体验。与单一、统一的区块链相比,与多个 L2 的互动更加复杂和繁琐。用户面临的挑战包括浏览不同的钱包界面、了解不同的收费结构以及学习如何在不同网络之间进行资产桥接。

These challenges form barriers to entry, especially for less experienced users. Additionally, bridges carry their own security assumptions and risks, as evidenced by numerous high-profile bridge-related hacks such as Ronin Network ($600M), Wormhole ($300M), and Nomad ($190M).
这些挑战构成了进入网桥的障碍,尤其是对经验不足的用户而言。此外,网桥也有其自身的安全假设和风险,许多与网桥相关的高知名度黑客事件就是证明,如 Ronin Network(6 亿美元)、Wormhole(3 亿美元)和 Nomad(1.9 亿美元)。

While these UX challenges may be solved in time, they still pose issues for near-term adoption and asset allocation.
虽然这些用户体验方面的挑战可能会在一段时间内得到解决,但它们仍然会给近期的采用和资产配置带来问题。

 

From Clarity to Complexity: Ethereum’s Evolving Landscape
从清晰到复杂:以太坊不断演变的格局

For those less technical, allocating to Ethereum has become more challenging. Should one just buy ETH? Or some dApp tokens? Or ARB? Or dApps that run on Arbitrum? Or OP? Or dApps that run on Optimism? What about bridge tokens? Or governance tokens of LSDs?
对于那些技术水平较低的人来说,配置以太坊变得更具挑战性。是否应该只购买 ETH?还是买一些 dApp 代币?还是 ARB?还是在 Arbitrum 上运行的 dApp?还是 OP?或者运行在 Optimism 上的 dApp?桥梁代币呢?或者 LSD 的治理代币?

Those who spend a vast majority of their time keeping track of all the developments on all these different derivations can certainly outperform the broader market. But for the average hodler, this growing complexity is increasingly difficult to navigate.
那些花费大量时间跟踪所有这些不同衍生产品发展动态的人,肯定能跑赢大盘。但对于普通投资者来说,这种日益增长的复杂性越来越难以驾驭。

Conversely, the investment thesis for monolithic blockchains like Solana is far more simple to understand. If one is bullish on Solana, then SOL is a core position in that portfolio, supplemented by holdings in select dApp tokens. This approach is reminiscent of how many got exposure to the early days of Ethereum, a parallel we discussed at length in the Ghosts Of Cycles Past report.
相反,Solana 等单体区块链的投资理论则简单得多。如果看好 Solana,那么 SOL 就是投资组合中的核心头寸,并辅以持有精选的 dApp 代币。这种方法让人想起许多人在早期接触以太坊的方式,我们在《Ghosts Of Cycles Past》报告中对此进行了详细讨论。

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