China’s military could isolate Taiwan, cripple its economy, and make the democratic island succumb to the will of Beijing’s ruling Communist Party without ever firing a shot, a prominent think tank warns.
一家著名智囊团警告说，中国军队可以不费一枪一弹就孤立台湾，削弱其经济，并使这个民主岛屿屈服于北京执政的共产党的意志。
Fears the Communist Party might make good on its promise to one day take control of Taiwan, by force if necessary, have been heightened in recent years by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s increasingly bellicose actions towards the self-ruled island.
近年来，中国领导人习近平对这个自治岛屿采取越来越好战的行动，加剧了人们对共产党可能兑现其有一天控制台湾（必要时使用武力）的承诺的担忧。
China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only added to those fears.
中国拒绝谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，这只会加剧这些担忧。
In such a scenario, analysts and military strategists have long focused on two key options available to China – a full-scale invasion or a military blockade.
在这种情况下，分析人士和军事战略家长期以来一直关注中国可以采取的两个关键选择：全面入侵或军事封锁。
But a Washington think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), warns there is a third way, one that will make it far harder for the United States and other like-minded democracies to counter: Quarantine.
但华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）警告说，还有第三种方法，它将使美国和其他志同道合的民主国家更难以应对：隔离。
Using “gray zone” tactics – actions just below what might be considered acts of war – the China Coast Guard, its so-called maritime militia and various police and maritime safety agencies could initiate a full or partial quarantine of Taiwan, possibly cutting off access to its ports and stopping vital supplies like energy from reaching the island’s 23 million people, a newly released report from CSIS says.
中国海岸警卫队、其所谓的海上民兵以及各种警察和海事安全机构可以使用“灰色地带”策略（略低于可能被视为战争行为的行动）对台湾发起全面或部分隔离，可能会切断台湾的通行权CSIS 最新发布的一份报告称，该岛的港口和港口无法正常供应能源，该岛 2300 万人无法获得能源等重要物资。
The naval, air and ground components of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the world’s largest military force, might play only auxiliary and support roles, authors Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiole, Samantha Lu and Truly Tinsley write.
作者邦尼·林 (Bonny Lin)、布莱恩·哈特 (Brian Hart)、马修·福奈奥尔 (Matthew Funaiole)、萨曼莎·卢 (Samantha Lu) 和特鲁利·廷斯利 (Truly Tinsley) 写道，作为世界上最大的军事力量，中国人民解放军 (PLA) 的海军、空军和地面部队可能只发挥辅助和支持作用。
“China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking fears that tensions could erupt into outright conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of an invasion, but Beijing has options besides invading to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan,” the report says.
“近年来，中国大幅增加了对台湾的压力，引发了人们对紧张局势可能爆发为彻底冲突的担忧。入侵的威胁受到了很多关注，但除了入侵之外，北京还有其他选择来胁迫、惩罚或吞并台湾，”报告称。
At the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore earlier this month, Chinese Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun warned those who support any moves for Taiwan independence will “end up in self-destruction.”
本月早些时候在新加坡举行的香格里拉对话防务峰会上，中国国防部长董军警告那些支持任何台独举动的人“最终都会自取灭亡”。
“We will take resolute actions to curb Taiwan independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds,” said Dong, speaking through a translator, while slamming “external interfering forces” for selling arms and having “illegal official contacts” with Taiwan.
董通过翻译表示，“我们将采取坚决行动遏制台独，确保这种图谋永远不会得逞”，同时谴责“外部干涉势力”向台湾出售武器以及与台湾进行“非法官方往来”。
China’s escalating gray zone tactics were on stark display this week as China Coast Guard vessels clashed with Philippine Navy boats in the South China Sea.
本周，随着中国海警船与菲律宾海军船只在南海发生冲突，中国不断升级的灰色地带策略得到了鲜明的体现。
Videos showed Beijing’s troops threatening Filipinos with an axe and other bladed weapons, and Manila said one of its soldiers lost a thumb in a Chinese-instigated collision.
视频显示，北京军队用斧头和其他利刃武器威胁菲律宾人，马尼拉表示，一名士兵在中国煽动的碰撞中失去了一根拇指。
The level of violence was a major step up from previous clashes near Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains an outpost on a beached warship in waters claimed by both Beijing and Manila.
与之前在仁爱礁附近发生的冲突相比，此次暴力事件发生了重大升级。菲律宾在北京和马尼拉均声称拥有主权的海域的一艘搁浅军舰上设有前哨基地。
Similarly, Beijing’s military and economic intimidation of Taiwan, a highly developed free-market economy, has grown much more pronounced under Xi.
同样，北京对高度发达的自由市场经济体台湾的军事和经济恐吓在习近平的领导下变得更加明显。
China’s ruling Communist Party claims the island as its own, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to “reunify” with it, by force if necessary.
中国执政的共产党声称该岛属于自己，尽管从未控制过该岛，并誓言要与其“统一”，必要时会使用武力。
But the CSIS report says Beijing has strong options that could not only keep the PLA out of the fight but could actually put the island democracy or its supporters like the United States in the role of initiators of military conflict to preserve Taiwan’s autonomy.
但战略与国际研究中心的报告称，北京有强有力的选择，不仅可以阻止解放军参与战斗，还可以实际上让台湾民主国家或其支持者（如美国）充当军事冲突的发起者，以维护台湾的自治。
视频显示菲律宾军队与中国海警对峙
The report notes that the China Coast Guard – like most coast guards around the world – is considered a law-enforcement agency. This means it can stop and regulate shipping around the island in what is termed a quarantine, which differs from a blockade.
报告指出，中国海警与世界上大多数海警一样，被视为执法机构。这意味着它可以通过所谓的隔离来阻止和监管岛上的航运，这与封锁不同。
“A quarantine (is) a law enforcement–led operation to control maritime or air traffic within a specific area while a blockade is foremost military in nature,” the report says.
报告称：“隔离是一种由执法部门主导的行动，旨在控制特定区域内的海上或空中交通，而封锁本质上是军事性的。”
International law considers a blockade an act of war, experts say.
专家表示，国际法将封锁视为战争行为。
“A quarantine led by China’s coast guard is not a declaration of war against Taiwan,” the report says, and would put the US in a difficult position, its authors warn.
报告称，“中国海警牵头的隔离并不是对台湾宣战”，报告作者警告说，这将使美国陷入困境。
Washington is legally required – under the Taiwan Relations Act – to provide the island with the means to defend itself, and it supplies it with defensive weaponry.
根据《台湾关系法》，华盛顿在法律上被要求向台湾提供自卫手段，并为其提供防御性武器。
US President Joe Biden has gone further than the legal requirement, saying repeatedly he would use American troops to protect Taiwan, a warning that appeared to deviate from Washington’s previous stance of “strategic ambiguity” and one that the White House officials have walked back.
But if US military ships or aircraft intervened in what China says is a law enforcement operation, the US could be seen as initiating military hostilities.
The report puts the China Coast Guard numbers at 150 ocean-going vessels and 400 smaller ones, like the PLA Navy, the world’s largest force in terms of fleet size. Beijing has hundreds of more vessels in its Maritime Safety Agency and maritime militia, fishing boats integrated into China’s military and law enforcement services.
Taiwan’s coast guard, with only 10 ocean-going ships and about 160 smaller ones, lacks the numbers to push back a quarantine effort, the report says.
The CSIS authors note that quarantine actions taken by Beijing could be extremely limited and still have the effect of strangling Taiwan economically. Few operators would want to face the possibility of having their assets seized by Chinese authorities and might voluntarily stop servicing the island.
“Demonstrated Chinese willingness to search and seize only a handful of commercial ships could have an outsized deterrent impact and discourage similar transgressions,” the report states.
Limited search and/or seizure actions have an effect on flights to Taiwan as a quarantine can easily be extended to the air, the report states.
Only a handful of flights would need to be warned off by Chinese aircraft to have a stifling effect on all traffic, according to the report.
China regularly flies military aircraft around the island, sometimes dozens in a day. In the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. Friday, 36 Chinese military aircraft crossed into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry says.
Meanwhile, a quarantine, rather than a blockade, would not require China to close or restrict access to the Taiwan Strait, the CSIS report notes. That means Washington and its allies could lose one of their biggest claims to intervene under international law, preserving freedom of navigation in an international waterway.
“If the quarantine is cast as a law enforcement operation, China can easily announce the end of the operation and claim its objectives were met,” the report says.
To keep things even more low-key, China might not even need to use the word “quarantine” to begin an operation to isolate Taiwan, the authors say.
Under its claims that Taiwan is Chinese territory, Beijing could require customs declarations to be filed before vessels can call in Taiwan. For those that fail to comply, enforcement mechanisms could have a chilling effect on all shipping.
“Chinese law enforcement vessels will be authorized to board vessels, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and undertake other measures against noncompliant ships,” the report said.
This idea allows a limited scope of operations for China. For instance, it could just target the island’s busiest port, Kaohsiung, responsible for 57% of Taiwan’s maritime imports and most of its energy imports, according to the study.
Plausible, but still fraught with risk for China
Outside analysts who reviewed the CSIS report and spoke to CNN found it plausible. But they also harbored important doubts about how things might play out.
Some mentioned how the economics don’t necessarily play in Beijing’s favor.
“Maintaining the quarantine will be expensive and time consuming,” said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.
“Taipei won’t give up in under 60 days,” Schuster contends. “Can Beijing sustain the effort and possible international reaction for that long?”
Efforts to upset the status quo across the Taiwan Strait could further erode Beijing’s foreign trade, the experts warn.
Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King’s College in London, notes the challenges the Chinese Communist Party is already facing with an economy still struggling to recover from Covid-19 isolation that has seen growth rates plummet and new trade restrictions, like tariffs on its electric vehicle exports.
Taiwan is a prominent industrialized economy, a crucial node in global supply chains and a manufacturer of the vast majority of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. A quarantine on the island would have economic repercussions not just domestically, but globally.
While most nations diplomatically recognize Beijing over Taiwan, the island has forged increasingly strong unofficial relations with major western democracies, deepening those ties in recent years as Beijing’s threats have hardened.
Taiwan and China are also deeply economically intertwined. Last year, 35% of the island’s exports went to the Chinese mainland, most of which were integrated circuits, solar cells and electronic components, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Imports from the mainland accounted for 20% of the island’s total imports in the same year. Between 1991 and 2022, Taiwanese companies invested a total of $203 billion in the mainland, according to Taiwan government statistics, creating millions of jobs in China.
Additionally, quarantines can push populations to rally with the government, rather than rise up against it, says Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
“Historical evidence shows that even severe blockades have limited coercive value, and a limited quarantine might result in a rally around the flag effect,” he says.
A quarantine could also push Taiwan’s government to declare independence, something Beijing has repeatedly said would likely bring armed conflict, Kaushal warns.
“This would then leave the (Communist Party) with the options of either escalation or a major setback,” he says.
Patalano says for China, patience is the key to realizing its goal of “reunification.”
Escalation, and certainly invasion, is not “cost-efficient,” he says. War costs not only lives but national wealth.
