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US Conviction List - Directors' Cut

TARIFFS & RECESSION RISK IN FOCUS

Global Markets Daily: How Overvalued is the Dollar?

We believe that the Dollar’s strong valuation has been driven by elevated global allocations chasing superior return prospects in the US. With that now eroding, we expect the Dollar’s misalignment to erode gradually as well. In this Global Markets Daily we discuss in greater detail the USD valuation signal from our two formal FX fair value frameworks – GSDEER and GSFEER – and we leverage our FEER model to estimate the implied USD adjustment under different US current account assumptions.

1 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Teresa Alves
 

European Daily: A Manufacturing Boost From Tariff Frontloading, but Headwinds Ahead

Manufacturing survey and production data has improved in Europe since the start of the year despite elevated economic uncertainty and US tariff announcements. Frontloading of shipments to the US ahead of tariff implementation could explain the surprising resilience of EU manufacturing in the first months of the year. In this Daily we investigate the evidence for frontloading so far.

1 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Niklas Garnadt, Giovanni Pierdomenico and others
 

China Export Tracker: Number 2: What corporates are telling us (week of Apr 28, 2025)

In this tracker, we present our proprietary work across 48 corporates, with products representing nearly 70% of China export value by product group to the US, to gauge the magnitude and pace of change in China-to-US trade as the tariff situation evolves.

1 May 2025 | Research | Equity - Trina Chen and others
 

GOAL Positioning: Risk appetite reversal despite macro risks

After declining sharply our aggregate sentiment and positioning indicator recovered to the 38th percentile, still below the global PMI, which has stabilised around 52. Investors turned sharply bearish following the tariff announcements but sentiment has recovered since the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. Our Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) currently stands at -0.3, recovering from the sharp correction on April 7th, when it reached -1.64 (and -2 intraday).

30 Apr 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and others
 

Global Markets Daily: The Risks (Or Not) to Foreign Demand for US Credit

The risk of foreign selling of US dollar denominated assets has been front and center for the last month amid the weakening in the US dollar. While foreign entities still hold nearly 30% of US credit and are an important source of demand, the corporate bond market has not suffered from the same level of worry as the US treasury market over the last month.

30 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Spencer Rogers, CFA and others
 

Also see:

US Daily: April GSAI: Not Quite a Spring

1 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Jessica Rindels  

Global Markets Daily: Could We Have Seen the Worst in Markets Already?

29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Vickie Chang  

Commodity Views: Hedge Cyclical Recession Risk; Structurally Bullish Gold and Copper

29 Apr 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others  

Asia Economics Analyst: Repatriation Flows - Who Are The Potential Beneficiaries in Asia?

29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Danny Suwanapruti and others 

GOAL Kickstart: Market repricing of US recession and exceptionalism risks

28 Apr 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Andrea Ferrario and others  

Asia Views: Bracing for the tariff impact

29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton and others    

... and more on our Trade Policy page >