HSI -0.4%  | HSCEI -0.2%   | HSTECH -1.4%  | T/O @ HK$ 149B | SOUTHBOUND US$ 694M
恆指 -0.4% |恒生中國企業指數 -0.2% |HSTECH -1.4% |電匯 @ HK$ 149B |南向 US$ 694M

LEADERS: FINS +0.7%, TELCO -0.2%, ENERGY -0.2%
領跑者：FINS +0.7%，電信 -0.2%，能源 -0.2%

LAGGARDS: INFO TECH -1.3%, MATL -1.3%, STAPLES -1.3%
落後者：資訊技術 -1.3%，MATL -1.3%，STAPLES -1.3%

Disappointed investors sold HK shares after the CSRC-led press conference aimed at boosting the market failed to impress. A-shares closed with small gains but HK traded from top left to bottom right. CSRC Chair Wu Qing announced this morning authorities will call on “long-term” funds (social security, pensions, insurance, and annuity funds) to invest in stocks, but investors were hoping for more immediate relief amid looming trade war as US tariffs on Chinese imports could kick off in a week’s time. HSI -0.4% was weighed down by Consumer and Info Tech, and HSTECH -1.4% got dragged with SMIC -7.2% selling off and EVs slumping too (Li -3.7%, XPeng -3.6%). Turnover at HK$149b was inline with recent average, and Southbound net buying extends the streak that started since Dec 17^th of last year. 
在中國證監會牽頭的旨在提振市場的新聞發佈會未能給人留下深刻印象后，失望的投資者拋售了港股。A 股收盤小幅上漲，但香港股從左上角到右下角交易。中國證監會主席吳青今天上午宣佈，當局將呼籲“長期”基金（社保、養老、保險和年金基金）投資股票，但投資者希望在迫在眉睫的貿易戰中得到更直接的緩解，因為美國對中國進口商品的關稅可能在一周內開始。恒生指數 -0.4% 受到消費和資訊技術的拖累，恆生科技 -1.4% 受到中芯國際 -7.2% 拋售和電動汽車暴跌的拖累（李 -3.7%，小鵬 -3.6%）。成交額為 HK$149b 與近期平均水準持平，南向凈買入延續了自去年 12 月 17 日以來的連勝勢頭。

Flow wise the pad skewed 1.9x better buyer on notional 2.4x more than 4w daily average on what was a very busy day. LOs made up about half of the overall flow, a lower proportion than usual as they typically dominate the pad. We saw meaningful buying in Comm Svcs (internet) throughout the session that alone drove the entire buy skew pad. While there were small buying in Info Tech and Staples it was not on the same scale as the bid in Comm Svcs. LOs were selling Consumer Disc (autos / travel / education / Macau) which added up to decent size but not in a concentrated way in any name. HFs seemed to concur with LOs at least when it come to Comm Svcs (internet) bid, adding similarly meaningful size in this space although they sold telcos within that sector. We saw some rotation flow again – HFs were funding the buying in Comm Svcs with selling in Financials (insurers / banks) and Consumer Disc (e-comm / EVs / delivery. Client feedback suggest expectations were low heading into the press conference, and I would expect sentiments to remain in the doldrums heading into the long holiday onshore. 
在流量方面，在非常繁忙的一天中，pad的名義買家比每日平均 4w 高出 2.4 倍。LO 約佔總流量的一半，比平時低，因為它們通常主導墊子。在整個交易日中，我們在 Comm Svcs（互聯網）中看到了有意義的買入，僅此一項就推動了整個買入偏斜墊。雖然 Info Tech 和 Staples 有小額買入，但與 Comm S 的出價規模不同。LO 出售的是 Consumer Disc（汽車/旅遊/教育/澳門），這些盤子加起來規模不錯，但並不是以任何名義集中銷售。至少在 Comm Svcs（互聯網）出價方面，HF 似乎與 LO 一致，儘管他們出售該行業的電信公司，但在該領域增加了同樣有意義的規模。我們再次看到了一些輪換流——HF 通過出售金融（保險公司/銀行）和消費光碟（電子商務/電動汽車/交付）來為購買 Comm Svcs 提供資金。客戶反饋表明，在新聞發佈會之前，人們的期望很低，我預計在岸長假前，市場情緒將繼續低迷。

Most active names: TENCENT / HKEX / CHINA MOBILE / PINGAN / ALIBABA
最活躍的公司：騰訊 / 香港交易所 / 中國移動 / 平安 / 阿裡巴巴

GS largest market share: MIDEA REAL ESTATE / CHINA MEDICA SYS / AK MEDICAL / GWM / ASMPT
GS 最大市場份額：美的地產 / 中國麥迪卡系統 / AK 醫療 / GWM / ASMPT

Hints for the “Two Sessions”: China's 31 provinces revealed their 2025 economic targets over the course of this month, with most lowering expectations despite the nation meeting its 2024 GDP growth target of "around 5%". The provinces' average growth target decreased to 5.3%, and most reduced inflation targets to "around 2%".  Based on these local "Two Sessions" meetings, GIR expects the March national level "Two Sessions" to maintain its GDP growth target at "around 5%", lower the CPI inflation target to "around 2%", increase the fiscal deficit target to 4% of GDP, and expand government bond issuance to RMB13tn (up from RMB9tn in 2024).
“兩會”提示：中國 31 個省份在本月公佈了 2025 年經濟目標，儘管該國實現了 2024 年 GDP 增長目標“5% 左右”，但大多數省份都降低了預期。各省的平均增長目標降至 5.3%，大多數省份將通脹目標下調至“2% 左右”。 根據這些地方“兩會”會議，GIR 預計 3 月國家層面的“兩會”將 GDP 增長目標維持在“5% 左右”，將 CPI 通脹目標下調至“2% 左右”，將財政赤字目標提高到 GDP 的 4%，並將政府債券發行規模擴大至 13 噸人民幣（高於 2024 年的 9 噸人民幣）。

Guidance for “long-term” capital: as expected, the CSRC led a press conference today with the PBOC and MOF to update Beijing’s efforts to boost the A-shares market by encouraging so-called “long-term” capital to increase investments in the market. According to the plan, mutual funds should raise their holdings of onshore stocks by at least 10% annually for the next three years, and big state-owned insurers will need to invest 30% of their new policy premium from 2025. The details are still to come, and some in the market are already skeptical about the CSRC’s ability to enforce state-owned insurance firms on what they do with their funds – as it is not the regulator for the insurance industry. Onshore analysts have estimated, optimistically, that there could be over 1tn yuan of inflows into A-shares based on just the insurance funds alone, but the math may not be as simple as that: insurers not only collect premiums but also make large payments as claims, so details on “30% rule” (not available yet) should address that fact when considering the implementation. GIR note here from 3Q24 on some of the constraints to a structurally higher equity investment allocation. 
“長期”資本指引：正如預期的那樣，中國證監會今天與中國人民銀行和財政部召開了新聞發佈會，更新了北京通過鼓勵所謂的“長期”資本增加對A股市場的投資來提振A股市場的努力。根據該計劃，共同基金在未來三年內每年至少增加 10% 的在岸股票持有量，從 2025 年起，大型國有保險公司將需要投資其新保單保費的 30%。細節仍有待公佈，一些市場人士已經對中國證監會在資金使用方面強制執行國有保險公司的能力持懷疑態度——因為它不是保險業的監管機構。在岸分析師樂觀地估計，僅憑保險基金就可能有超過 1 噸人民幣的 A 股流入，但數學可能沒有那麼簡單：保險公司不僅收取保費，還會以索賠的形式支付大額款項，因此在考慮實施時，“ 30% 規則” （尚不可用）的細節應該會解決這一事實。GIR 在 24 年第三季度指出了結構性提高股票投資配置的一些限制因素。

Vol update (Keita Umetani): on the index vol side, implied vol continued to drift lower across the region. HSI/HSCEI failed to realize despite high intraday vol and implied followed. In terms of flow, light franchise biz across the board with TW closed and HK/CH heading to CNY break. Volarbs buyers of short-dated HSI upside gamma and sellers of skew in HK internet names.
波動率更新 （Keita Umetani）：在指數波動率方面，整個地區的隱含波動率繼續走低。HSI/HSCEI 未能實現，儘管盤中波動率很高，並且隱含波動率緊隨其後。就流量而言，輕特許經營業務全面發展，TW 關閉，HK/CH 進入農曆新年假期。波動性買入短期HSI上行 gamma 和賣出香港互聯網股票的偏度。

Thank you   謝謝

Fred   佛瑞德

Fred Yin 尹岳
 Global Banking & Markets | FICC and Equities 

Fred Yin 尹岳
 全球銀行與市場 |FICC 和股票 

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

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