English Transcription for Neil as a moderator at Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit 2024
Neil 作为 2024 年全球金融领袖投资峰会的主持人进行 English 转录

Panel name:
面板名称：

Trends shaping private markets
塑造私募市场的趋势

Participants:
参与者：

Neil Shen, Founding and Managing Partner, HongShan
Neil Shen，HongShan 创始合伙人兼管理合伙人

Joe Bae, Co-CEO, KKR
Joe Bae，KKR 联合首席执行官

Jim Coulter, TPG Co-Founder & Executive Chairman, TPG Rise Climate Managing Partner
Jim Coulter，TPG联合创始人兼执行主席，TPG Rise气候管理合伙人

Rob Lucas, CEO, CVC
Rob Lucas，CVC 首席执行官

Howard Marks, Co-Chairman, Oaktree Capital Management
Howard Marks，橡树资本管理公司联席主席

Harvey Schwartz, CEO, Carlyle
Harvey Schwartz，凯雷首席执行官

Neil:
尼尔：
Thank you. Thanks HKMA for inviting me, and it's my great honor to moderate this session. We got five heavyweights in the private markets. I guess private markets really play a very important role, as Mark was alluding to in an earlier session that over time, it was felt that it’s more risky than a public market, but it turned out to be safer and creating better returns.
谢谢。 感谢香港金融管理局的邀请，我很荣幸能够主持本次会议。我们在私募市场有五家重量级公司。我想私募市场确实发挥着非常重要的作用，正如 Mark 在一次早期会议上所暗示的那样，随着时间的推移，人们认为它 比公开市场风险更大，但事实证明它更安全，并创造了更好的回报。

So from Howard, you write letters all the time. Once you mentioned your “sea change” thesis two years ago, highlighting that a substantial portion of investor returns over the past 40 years has been driven by lower interest rates and the year ahead won't be that easy. So can you share a bit on that particular note? Given the rising asset price and the declining cost of capital, before for the private equity and now, what are we expecting to see in the future?
所以从 Howard 开始，你一直在写信。两年前，您提到了“巨变”的论点，强调过去 40 年投资者回报的很大一部分是由较低的利率推动的，未来一年不会那么容易。 那么，您能分享一下这个特定的观点吗？鉴于资产价格 上涨和资本成本 下降，无论是私募股权还是现在，我们期待未来会看到什么？

Howard:
霍华德：

Thank you, and thank you for giving me the opportunity to be here today and on this great panel. In the memo, I said that in 1980 I had a bank loan outstanding personally, and I got a slip of paper in the mail which said the rate on your loan is now 22 and a quarter. And four years later, in 2020 I was able to borrow at two and a quarter. Now I became a better credit, but I think that was a very, very important factor in the history of the world. In fact, I think it was the most important single event in the financial world in the last half century. Now it took a long time. It was gradual, so it might have gone unnoticed, but it was very important. So that's number one.
谢谢你们，也感谢你们给我今天来到这里并参加这个伟大小组的机会。在备忘录中，我说在 1980 年，我个人有一笔未偿还的银行贷款，我收到了一张邮寄的纸条 ，上面写着您的贷款利率现在是 22 又 1/5。四年后的 2020 年，我能够在 2 岁零 15 岁时借款。现在我变得更有信用了，但我认为这是世界历史上一个非常非常重要的因素。事实上，我认为这是过去半个世纪金融界最重要的单一事件。现在花了很长时间。它是渐进的，所以它可能被忽视了，但它非常重要。 So 那是第一名。

And of course, declining interest rates make, among other things, make assets more valuable and make the cost of borrowing less, so that leads to number two, which is that something we call the leveraged finance industry, was invented in that period. And, you know, private equity, and of course, the growth of real estate and other leveraged strategy, and of course, the beneficial effects on the value of assets and the cost of carry were very helpful to those industries, and they got traction.
当然，利率下降使资产更有价值，降低借贷成本，因此导致了第二个问题，即我们称之为杠杆金融行业的东西，就是在那个时期发明的。而且，你知道，私募股权，当然还有房地产和其他杠杆策略的增长，当然，对资产价值和持有成本的有益影响对这些行业非常有帮助，它们得到了牵引。

Private equity, which my panel, co panellists are, are the leaders in has been described as the silver bullet in the last five or 10 years for any pension fund which is underfunded. So that's very, very significant.
P rivate equity，我的小组成员，共同小组成员，是过去 5 年或 10 年中被描述为任何未获得资金的养老基金的银弹的领导者。所以这非常非常重要。

And then, of course, in the 09 to 21 period, we had the lowest interest rates in history. The Fed funds rate was zero most of the time and averaged a half a percent. And that was a great time. Now that brings us up to date, almost. But in that period when credit is readily available and almost free, what's the smart thing to do, leverage up as much as possible.
当然，在 09 年至 21 年期间，我们的利率达到了历史上最低的水平。联邦基金利率大部分时间为零，平均为半个百分点。那是一段美好的时光。现在，我们几乎了解了最新情况。但是在信贷随时可用且几乎免费的时期，明智的做法是尽可能多地杠杆化。

And a lot of people did. Now, of course, things have changed. We had a bout of inflation that required the Fed funds rate to be raised from zero to five and a quarter, five and a half, and many investments were settled with capital structures that didn't anticipate a 500 basis point increase in rates.
很多人都这样做了。当然，现在情况已经发生了变化。我们经历了一轮通货膨胀，要求将联邦基金利率从 0 提高到 5.25 分之 5.5，许多投资都是通过资本结构结算的，这些资本结构没有预料到利率会上调 500 个百分点。

And some have adjusted some will have to go through a period of adjustment as we get maturities, etcetera. But I think the important thing is that when leverage is not as cheap and not as readily available. The ability to produce returns will come from being able to buy things well and add value, not from merely buying levering and enjoying an increase in multiples. So this is, this is a lot of what our industry has to do ahead in this period.
有些人已经调整了，有些人将不得不经历一段时间的调整，因为我们的到期时间等等。但我认为重要的是，当杠杆不那么便宜且不那么容易获得时。产生回报的能力将来自能够买好东西并增加价值，而不仅仅是购买杠杆和享受倍数增加。所以，这是我们行业在此期间必须做的很多事情。

I think that what I would say is Beta will not be enough to meet market trends. It'll take Alpha, personal skill. And I'm sure Mark is right that, you know, private credit has gone from about two 50 billion in, 07 to about a trillion and a half today. So 6x and 17 years is a strong growth rate. I'm sure it'll keep growing. But we all know that in that period, the tide didn't go out, to paraphrase Buffet, we didn't find out who's naked, and one of these days we will I'm just trying to set the scene, and I look forward to hear what everybody has to say about this environment.
我认为我想说的是 Beta 不足以满足市场趋势。这需要 Alpha 和个人技能。我相信 Mark 是对的，你知道，私人信贷已经从 07 年的大约 2500 亿美元增加到今天的大约 1 万亿半。所以 6 倍和 17 年是一个强劲的增长率。我相信它会继续增长。但我们都知道，在那个时期，潮水并没有退去，套用巴菲特的话来说，我们没有发现谁是裸体的，而总有一天我们会，我只是想把场景布置好，我期待听到大家对这个环境有什么看法。

Neil:
尼尔：

Great. So how to buy, well and seeking Alpha? So Harvey, given Carlyle’s Washington D.C. roots, So how are you looking at the interest rate environment and how do you look at the potential impact on that front with Trump 2.0?
伟大。那么如何购买并寻求 Alpha 呢？哈维，鉴于凯雷在华盛顿特区的根源，那么您如何看待利率环境，以及您如何看待特朗普 2.0 对利率环境的潜在影响？

Harvey:
哈维：

First of all, sorry, it's great to be here. Neil, thank you, and congratulations to the HKMA on a fantastic event. It's an honor to be here. So before I involved I want everyone to know, Howard and I are friends, and he just gave a very good description of economic history. And I wouldn't debate that with Howard but over that period from 1982 today, the first part of that decline in interest rates, which he did highlight very explicitly, to 2009. I think that that was really driven more by monetary policy, globalization, increases in technology, efficiencies in capital markets, and basically everything that drove deflation over that period.
首先，对不起，很高兴来到这里。 Neil，t hankh you ，祝贺香港金融管理局举办了一场精彩的活动。 很荣幸来到这里。 所以在我参与之前，我想让每个人都知道，霍华德和我是朋友，他刚刚对经济史进行了非常好的描述。我不会和霍华德争论这个问题，但在 从 1982 年的今天到 2009 年，利率下降的第一部分，他确实非常明确地强调了这一点。 我认为，这实际上更多地是由货币政策、全球化、技术发展、资本管理效率以及那段时期推动通货紧缩的几乎所有因素驱动的。

From 2009 to today, that excessive period of monetary policy was really in response to 2009 and of course, I think we'll look back on economic history, and we'll see that it was really unfortunate that the financial crisis happened in 2009 in the pandemic followed pretty quickly after, because it doubled down on fiscal spending and support, and it also doubled down on monetary policy. And then, of course, we had the reaction we had.
从2009 年到今天，那段时期的过度货币政策实际上是对 2009 年的回应，当然，我认为我们会回顾经济历史，我们会看到，非常不幸的是，金融危机发生在 2009 年，在大流行之后很快就消失了，因为它加倍了财政支出和支持。 它还在货币政策上加倍努力。然后，当然，我们也有了我们的反应。

I think that in any investing activity, one has to be in a position of micro asset investing, you have to have a value creation plan. And the way we think about private markets. We're 450 billion at Carlyle today. The largest segment, by the way, is credit and insurance, because of the growth in that market. When we think about private markets, and when you look at private markets, very little about the evolution of private markets has to do with the decline in interest rates. It has to do with the ecosystem of finance. We didn't have ETFs. You heard on the earlier panel, it used to cost, I don't know what Peng said, $100 to trade a share of stock, or several shares of stock. This has been an advancement that's happened from the 90s.
我认为，在任何投资活动中，都必须 处于微型资产投资的位置，你必须有一个价值创造计划。以及我们对私募市场的看法。凯 雷目前市值为 4500 亿美元。顺便说一句，最大的部分是信贷和保险，因为该市场的增长。当我们考虑私人市场时，当你关注私人市场时，私人市场的演变与利率下降几乎没有关系。它与金融生态系统有关。我们没有 ETF。你听说过前面的小组讨论，以前交易一股股票要花 100 美元，或者说几股。这是自 90 年代以来的进步。

I don't think the Wilshire 5000, Howard you probably know, has had 5000 names in the Wilshire 5000 in a very long time, we've actually lost half the public companies. That's not because we made a rule that public companies shouldn't exist. We actually companies figured out that private capital would allow them to grow more efficiently. And so I think private capital has played that role terms of interest rates, and I think I'm the first person that's been asked explicitly about Trump, but this is what I'll say. With respect to interest rates, When we look at our portfolio companies, which cover more than a million people around the world. The economy generally looks good. It looks particularly good in the US, and the data supports everything you're seeing in the numbers. A year ago today, if I was here, I would have told you we thought, based on the KPIs we roll up, we would have seen two or three interest rate cuts.
霍华德，你可能知道，我不认为威尔希尔 5000 强在很长一段时间内有 5000 个名字进入威尔希尔 5000 强，我们实际上已经失去了一半的上市公司。这并不是因为我们制定了一个规则，即上市公司不应该存在。实际上，我们公司发现私人资本将使它们更有效地增长。所以我认为私人资本在利率方面发挥了这种作用，我认为我是第一个被明确询问特朗普的人，但这就是我要说的。就利率而言，当我们查看我们的投资组合公司时，这些公司覆盖了全球超过 100 万人口。经济总体上看起来不错。在美国看起来特别好，数据支持您在数字中看到的一切。一年前的今天，如果我在这里，我会告诉你，我们认为，根据我们汇总的 KPI，我们会看到两到三次降息。

I think now we actually don't see a number of interest rate cuts. Last year, the market was calling for six or seven. We may see a handful next year, depending on how things evolve. But all the policies we know Trump will put in place, lower taxes, more spending, less regulation, those are all pro growth, and you're seeing it. So I would expect interest rates to stay higher. But the key point, I think Howard raised is a market clearing cost of capital is better for everyone.
我认为现在我们实际上没有看到一些降息。去年，市场需要六七辆。明年我们可能会看到一些，这取决于事情如何发展。但我们知道特朗普将实施的所有政策，降低税收、增加支出、减少监管，这些都是有利于增长的，你看到了。 因此，我预计利率将保持在较高水平。但关键是，我认为 Howard 提出的是，市场出清的资本成本对每个人都更好。

Neil:
尼尔：

Great, so Joe, with this new change in dynamics, right? And we will know that we just cannot rely on multiple expansion to creating a return. So what are the playbook for private credit investors? Specifically, KKR. What strategy you adopt into creating good return for investors?
太好了，Joe，动态发生了这种新的变化，对吧？我们将知道，我们不能依靠多重扩展来创造回报。那么，私人信贷投资者的剧本是什么呢？具体来说，KKR.您采用什么策略来为投资者创造良好的回报？

Joe:
乔：

Well, first, thank you, HKMA, for this incredible event. It's great to be back here in Hong Kong. I think Howard said it well. This is about buying well, but more importantly, creating Alpha, operational value creation in the companies that you fundamentally buy.
首先，感谢 HKMA 举办这次令人难以置信的活动。很高兴回到香港。我认为霍华德说得好。这是关于购买得好，但更重要的是，在您从根本上购买的公司中创造 Alpha 和运营价值创造。

I think in our industry, it's a very competitive industry. You look at this panel here, everyone's constantly trying to evolve and increase their competitive advantage in the marketplace. So how do we do that in private equity?
我认为在我们这个行业，这是一个竞争非常激烈的行业。你看看这里的这个小组，每个人都在不断努力发展和增加他们在市场上的竞争优势。那么我们如何在私募股权中做到这一点呢？

First of all, it's around capabilities. So it's not just about having really smart deal teams. It's about industry specialization. Fundamentally, it's about being focused on the right thematics to win long term tailwinds, it's about creating other parts of your firm, specialized capabilities, government affairs, public policy, especially in a market like this, where regulation tariffs could be an incredible source of risk.
首先，它与功能有关。 因此，这不仅仅是拥有真正聪明的交易团队。这与行业专业化有关。从根本上说，这是关于专注于正确的主题以赢得长期顺风，这是关于创造公司的其他部分、专业能力、政府事务、公共政策，尤其是在这样的市场中，监管关税可能是一个令人难以置信的风险来源。

Working with our portfolio companies every single day, we have an in-house Capital Markets team. You know, when you think there's going to be volatility in the financing markets or access to capital, we have a 100 person Capital Markets team. In the last five years, they've been underwriters or rangers of over $850 billion of debt and equity transactions. Two thirds of that is for our own portfolio. A third of that is for third party clients of ours. So you need a lot of different tools to win in today's private equity world.
我们每天都与我们的投资组合公司合作，我们有一个内部资本市场团队。您知道，当您认为融资市场或获得资本的机会会出现波动时，我们有一个 100 人的资本市场团队。在过去五年中，他们一直是超过 8500 亿美元的债务和股票交易的承销商或护林员。其中三分之二用于我们自己的投资组合。其中三分之一是针对我们的第三方客户。因此，您需要许多不同的工具才能在当今的私募股权世界中获胜。

Neil:
尼尔：

So to Jim, we already talked a bit about how the opportunities present themselves to the private equity investors, but given the evolving regular changes and potential macroeconomic disruptions, what do you think about the sector itself, private equity as an industry? What are the structural changes that the industry could actually evolve into?
所以，Jim 已经谈到了机会如何呈现给私募股权投资者，但考虑到不断变化的定期变化和潜在的宏观经济干扰，您如何看待该行业本身，私募股权作为一个行业？ 该行业实际上可能会 演变成哪些结构性变化？

Rob:
抢：

I'm a student of industries, and actually one of the most interesting industries I'm involved in is our own. So 40 years ago, a few of us got together in these small partnerships to launch something that didn't have a name. It wasn't named until 1997.
我是各行各业的学生，实际上我参与的最有趣的行业之一就是我们自己的行业。 因此，40 年前，我们中的一些人以这些小型合作伙伴关系聚在一起，推出了一些没有名字的东西。直到 1997 年才被命名。

Today, that is a $6 trillion industry, and the dollars really don't capture it. If you look, just to use US numbers for a moment, about 7% of the US employment base is in private equity. There's 4,800 public companies in the US, there's 30,000 companies, some of the most interesting companies in the private equity market. And the private equity market is the largest client for banks, law firms, consulting firms around the world, because it's an industry that remakes itself every five years. So interesting enough. One of the most fascinating investments you could have made in the last 30 years is the private equity industry. But it hasn't been uninterrupted. There have been moments where things have gone to hell. And there was 1989, 1990, there was 2000 there was 2008 and in those moments, two things happen. The industry themselves changed the structure, and something good came out of it, out of the 1990 disruption, the private the private real estate business came out.
如今，这是一个价值 6 万亿美元的行业，而美元真的无法捕捉到它。如果你看一下，仅仅用美国的数据来说，大约 7% 的美国就业基础是私募股权。 美国有 4800 家上市公司，有 30000 家公司，其中一些是私募股权市场上最有趣的公司。私募股权市场是全球银行、律师事务所、咨询公司的最大客户，因为这是一个每五年重塑一次的行业。太有趣了。在过去 30 年中，您可以进行的最吸引人的投资之一是私募股权行业。但它并非没有中断。有些时候事情已经走向了地狱。1989 年是 1990 年，2000 年是 2008 年，在那些时刻，发生了两件事。该行业本身改变了结构，从中产生了一些好东西，从 1990 年的颠覆中，私人私人房地产业务出现了。

The software investing business came out of 2000, the private credit business came out of the global financial crisis. So good things happen, but also change happens. We are in one of those moments right now, fundamental shifts happening. What am I seeing? First of all, the stronger, getting stronger. I'm happy to say you can see it in our stock price. But for the first time, I think people are understanding this industry is hard. I want gray at 35. It's not hard to make investments. It's hard to make them over 30 years, consistently, and places like HKMA need us to do it for 30 years consistently. And that takes a staying power in this cycle. John, you know this, you know more dollars have gone to the top firms in this cycle. There's also going to be a shakeout.
软件投资业务诞生于 2000 年，私人信贷业务诞生于全球金融危机。所以好事发生了，但变化也发生了。我们现在正处于这样的时刻之一，根本性的变化正在发生。我看到了什么？首先，越强越强。我很高兴地说，您可以在我们的股价中看到它。但我认为人们第一次明白这个行业很难。我想要 35 岁的灰色。进行投资并不难。要始终如一地做到 30 年是很困难的，像金管局这样的地方需要我们持续 30 年。而这需要在这个周期中保持活力。John，你知道这一点，你知道在这个周期中，更多的资金流向了顶级公司。也会有一场洗牌。

Bloomberg recently reported that 25% of private equity funds haven't raised money since 2015. It's hard to kill a private equity fund. They stick around for a long period of time, but the industry is remaking itself, and with capital tight in the in the institutional marketplace, private equity will find new sources. And what's happening is insurance is a form of savings going into private equity and private credit. We're now going to the high net worth channels. So the industry is fundamentally shifting in some funny ways, and there's going to be some problems to solve. The venture capital industry has a huge nav problem right now. It's only returning 5% on nav. It's usually 25%, obviously we've got to get DPI flowing in our industry. So fascinatingly enough, one of the most interesting sets of opportunities I see are very close to home. And keep an eye on the private equity industry. One thing that people tend to do wrong is this is when they step back from the industry.
彭博社最近报道称，自 2015 年以来，25% 的私募股权基金就没有筹集过资金。我很难杀死一只私募股权基金。它们存在了很长时间，但该行业正在重塑自身，随着机构市场资本紧张，私募股权将找到新的来源。现在的情况是，保险是一种用于私募股权和私募信贷的储蓄形式。我们现在要去高净值渠道。 因此，该行业正在以一些有趣的方式发生根本性的变化，并且会有一些问题需要解决。风险投资行业现在面临着一个巨大的导航问题。它在导航上只有 5% 的回报。通常是 25%，显然我们必须让 DPI 在我们的行业中流动。所以，令人着迷的是，我看到的最有趣的机会之一就在离家很近的地方。并密切关注私募股权行业。人们往往做错的一件事是，当他们离开这个行业时。

The industry was declared dead in 89 it was declared dead in 2000 I remember 2009 my then 12 year old daughter walked in and said, you know, Daddy, are you okay? I had the Wall Street Journal in front of me, and the headline was, private equity is dead meat. That was 2008 before a huge growth in the industry. So this is a moment of time where there will be a change in the industry. But as Joe is saying, the tools of the industry mean that interesting times are also ahead.
这个行业在 89 年被宣布死亡，它在 2000 年被宣布死亡，我记得 2009 年我当时 12 岁的女儿走进来说，你知道吗，爸爸，你还好吗？我面前有《华尔街日报》，标题是，私募股权是死肉。那是 2008 年，该行业还没有出现巨大增长。因此，现在是行业发生变化的时刻。但正如 Joe 所说，该行业的工具意味着有趣的时代也在前方。

Neil:
尼尔：

So private equity is definitely not dead. Actually. Rob, congratulations to you. We just saw the successful IPO of CVC. So how you look at the sort of this listing considerations as a private equity manager, and how is that listing going to contribute to your long term success?
因此，私募股权绝对没有消亡。实际上。Rob，恭喜你。我们刚刚看到了 CVC 的成功 IPO。那么，作为私募股权管理人，您如何看待这种上市考虑因素，以及该上市将如何促进您的长期成功？

Rob:
抢：

Well, first of all, thank you very much to Eddie, to Howard and the HKMA team for inviting us all over. It's a privilege to be here.
首先，非常感谢 Eddie、Howard 和香港金融管理局团队邀请我们。我很荣幸来到这里。

No thank you. It's, exciting times, and I think compared to all my colleagues on the on the stage here, we of course, took a lot longer to take the plunge into the public markets, and so we certainly had plenty of time to give it consideration. I think the key for us was actually ensuring that in going public, we didn't lose the very ingredients that were the source of our success.
不,谢谢。这是一个激动人心的时刻，我认为与我在台上的所有同事相比，我们当然花了更长的时间才进入公开市场，因此我们当然有足够的时间来考虑它。我认为对我们来说，关键实际上是确保在上市时，我们不会失去作为我们成功源泉的要素。

And I would particularly point to two areas, firstly, having the delivery of sustainable outperformance for our LPS as our key priority. I think that's always how we've built CVC and making sure that that absolutely remains the preeminent element of our business is key. Second one actually is about culture, interestingly.
我特别指出两个领域，首先，为我们的 LPS 提供可持续的卓越表现是我们的首要任务。我认为这一直是我们建立 CVC 的方式，确保这绝对是我们业务的首要要素是关键。 有趣的是，第二个实际上是关于文化的。

Just before David was on earlier on, but I asked one of his very senior colleagues to join us at our off site over in Athens earlier in the year, to talk to us, ahead of our IPO, about what were the main things that Goldman had found were challenges about the about being public, and he actually said culture, culture and communication. So I don't know whether my colleagues on the stage here would agree with that, but certainly that and maintaining our culture, because the culture is the glue that holds CVC together.
Just 在 David 之前早些时候，但我邀请了他的一位非常资深的同事在今年早些时候加入我们在雅典的场外活动，在我们首次公开募股之前与我们讨论高盛发现的主要挑战是什么。 他实际上说的是 culture， culture and communication。 所以我不知道我在台上的同事们是否同意这一点，但可以肯定的是，要保持我们的文化，因为文化是将 CVC 团结在一起的粘合剂。

Our business is based on a huge international network, 30 offices across five continents, and making sure that all of those people communicate, they work well, the relationships and the culture that binds everyone together remains.
我们的业务基于庞大的国际网络，在五大洲设有 30 个办事处，确保所有这些人都能沟通，他们工作良好，将每个人联系在一起的关系和文化仍然存在。

So those were the key considerations Neil that we had. In terms of how it is likely, and we hope it contributes to the ongoing success of CBC. Well, it's exactly as Jim has just been mentioning. We're seeing huge changes within our marketplace, all of us, and we're seeing huge consolidation. Actually, what we are seeing, as Jim's just said, is the strong getting stronger, and the weak struggling. And certainly in terms of the largest and most sophisticated LPs, they are consolidating their relationships and their investment across our industry.
这些是我们的关键考虑因素 Neil。 就可能性而言，我们希望它有助于 CBC 的持续成功。嗯，正如 Jim 刚才提到的。我们看到我们的市场、我们所有人都发生了巨大的变化，我们看到了巨大的整合。实际上，正如 Jim 刚才所说，我们看到的是强者越来越强大，而弱者在挣扎。当然，就最大、最成熟的 LP 而言，他们正在巩固他们在整个行业中的关系和投资。

They are looking to place much larger amounts of capital with fewer GPS, and they are looking at those GPS with whom they have the deepest, broadest and longest relationships, and who have delivered with for them for the longest period of time. And so that is a key theme. The other key theme, of course, is consolidation amongst the private markets players, and, that's a very, very important part in terms of us all growing and broadening our strategies and our platforms. And so being public, I do really feel, gives us longevity.
他们希望以更少的 GPS 投入更多的资金，他们正在寻找那些与他们有最深、最广泛和最长关系，并且为他们提供服务时间最长的 GPS。所以这是一个关键主题。当然，另一个关键主题是私募市场参与者之间的整合，这是我们所有人发展和拓宽我们的战略和平台的一个非常非常重要的部分。因此，我真的觉得，公开可以让我们长寿。

We're in a very, very long-term business. It's about structure and governance, but it gives us the strength of balance sheet and the strength of brand to allow us to build our business in terms of broadening that platform and participating in that consolidation.
我们从事的是非常非常长期的业务。这关乎结构和治理，但它赋予了我们资产负债表的力量和品牌的力量，使我们能够在扩大平台和参与整合方面建立我们的业务。

And of course, we are all ultimately people businesses, and it allows us to continue to attract and retain the very highest quality people, those would be the key elements.
当然，我们最终都是以人为本的企业，这使我们能够继续吸引和留住最高质量的人才，这些将是关键要素。

Neil:
尼尔：

And you know, European private equity has shown some very significant resilience. So in your view, what are the great opportunities out there for you? How you read the market and the opportunity for European buyout?
你知道，欧洲私募股权已经显示出一些非常显著的韧性。 那么，在您看来，您有哪些巨大的机会？ 您如何了解市场和欧洲收购的机会？

Rob
抢

Yeah. Well, of course, Europe is our heartland, and Europe has, as you say, been remarkably resilient over very, very extended period in terms of delivering private equity returns. In terms of the dynamics of the market, I think it's the ability and that resilience is very largely linked to the dynamics within the market, and those dynamics are very much about complexity. I mean, it was interesting hearing Sean talking earlier on about the challenges that that Europe confronts.
是的。当然，欧洲是我们的心脏地带，正如您所说，欧洲在提供私募股权回报方面在非常非常长的一段时间内都表现出了非常强的韧性。就市场动态而言， 认为这是一种能力，而弹性在很大程度上与市场动态相关，而这些动态在很大程度上与复杂性有关。我的意思是，听到 Sean早些时候谈论欧洲面临的挑战很有趣。

Europe is an ever changing dynamic and it's very, very hard to predict, and I think that that is the essence of Europe, different countries, different regions, facing different dynamics at any given time. And that that is why it creates both complexity, but also it creates a lot of inefficiency in the market, I think, compared, certainly compared to the to the US, the private equity market in the in the in Europe, is a lot less efficient.
欧洲是一个不断变化的动态，非常非常难以预测，我认为这就是欧洲的本质，不同的国家、不同的地区，在任何特定时间都面临着不同的动态。这就是为什么它既造成了复杂性，又在市场上造成了很多效率低下的原因，我认为，与美国相比，欧洲的私募股权市场的效率要低得多。

And of course, for those of us in strong positions within that market, particularly with local people on the ground in that in those markets. What that means is that we have an ability to really outperform and that's the real key to the dynamics with within Europe, having local people on the ground in the local markets.
当然，对于我们这些在该市场中处于强势地位的人来说，尤其是那些市场的当地居民。这意味着我们有能力真正超越大盘，这是欧洲内部动态的真正关键，让当地人在当地市场实地工作。

And then also just in terms of looking at opportunities. It was interesting just hearing the discussion just now about what it takes to succeed. In Europe, I would add another element, in terms of what it takes to succeed in addition to just having local people on the ground in the local markets. It's about actually not trying to sit at the top of the organization and predict where and how the opportunities will arise. It's about being bottom up and actually being able to sit at the Investment Committee at the top and see where the really interesting aspects come through, and that that's the key to the to the future, I'm sure, within Europe.
然后也是在寻找机会方面。刚才听到关于成功需要什么的讨论很有趣。在欧洲，我想添加另一个要素，除了让当地人在当地市场实地工作之外，还需要什么才能成功。这是关于实际上不是试图坐在组织的顶端并预测机会将在哪里以及如何出现。这是关于自下而上，真正能够坐在投资委员会的高层，看到真正有趣的方面在哪里出现，我敢肯定，这是欧洲未来的关键。

Neil:
尼尔：

Thank you. Today, if we talk about private investment, we one cannot just go without mentioning private credit. Indeed, this is a hot market, and this seem to be getting to a stage of a golden age, and Howard I just want you to share some thoughts on this. Where do you see those attractive opportunities within that particular sector. And the same time we have heard at last year's panel, and this year’s early panel, talk about some regulators having concern about this market getting so big that is created some instability from a regulator perspective. So what do you think about that? Are you concerned?
谢谢。今天，如果我们谈论私人投资，我们就不能不提到私人信贷。确实，这是一个热门市场，而且似乎正在进入一个黄金时代的阶段， Howard，我只想让您分享一些关于此的想法。您认为该特定行业内在哪里吸引了大量机会。与此同时，我们在 去年的面板和今年的早期小组讨论中听到，一些监管机构对这个市场如此之大感到担忧，以至于从监管机构的角度来看造成了一些不稳定。 那么你怎么看呢？您担心吗？

Howard:
霍华德：

Well, obviously, as I mentioned, private credit is a big deal now. It wasn't 20 years ago. And as I think Mark mentioned, a lot of its growth grew out of the failings of the banks or the shrinkage of the banks post GFC. I think that, you know, private credit will continue to grow. And by the way, every meeting I go into, people say, let's talk about private credit and Mark, I always say, let's talk about credit. You know, we're going to we're going to have both, and maybe Mark's right, we're going to converge.
嗯，显然，正如我提到的，私人信贷现在是一件大事。那不是 20 年前的事了。正如我认为 Mark 提到的，它的大部分增长源于银行的倒闭或全球金融危机后银行的萎缩。我认为，你知道，私人信贷将继续增长。顺便说一句，我参加的每次会议，人们都会说，让我们谈谈私人信贷，而 Mark，我总是说，让我们谈谈信贷。你知道，我们将两者兼而有之，也许 Mark 是对的，我们将趋同。

But I think the important thing to notice about private credit is that it is relatively new in its current size and iteration, and as Buffett would say, the tide hasn't gone out, and the tide will go out someday, and the we'll find out who was swimming naked, and we'll find out who made good credit decisions or who did not allow enough margin of safety when they made credit decisions. So there will be some sorting out, as there always is, and then, as Jim says, the best will get will get bigger. Let me just address for one minute, Neil, your question about regulation and risk. My own view is that we're not talking about systemic risks like we saw in the global financial crisis. In the global financial crisis, of course, which was underpinned by subprime mortgages, which had never been tested, and which turned out to be entirely fallacious.
但我认为关于私人信贷需要注意的重要一点是，它目前的规模和迭代相对较新，正如巴菲特所说，潮水还没有退去，总有一天会退去，我们会发现谁在裸泳，我们会发现谁做出了良好的信贷决策，或者谁在做出信贷决策时没有留出足够的安全边际。 因此，会有一些整理，就像往常一样，然后，正如 Jim 所说，最好的会变得更大。Neil，让我花一分钟时间回答您关于监管和风险的问题。我个人的观点是，我们谈论的系统性风险不是像全球金融危机那样。当然，在全球金融危机中，它是由次级抵押贷款支撑的，而次级抵押贷款从未经过测试，结果证明这完全是错误的。

Number one, we saw the disappearance as independent entities of Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG and several others, I think, for two main reasons. Number one, because they were hugely levered, which the private credit industry is not and number two, because they were interconnected, and we in 2008, we coined the phrase counterparty risk, which then became a big deal.
首先，我们认为美林、贝尔斯登、雷曼兄弟、AIG 和其他几家公司的独立实体消失了，我认为有两个主要原因。第一，因为它们杠杆率很高，而私人信贷行业则不是，第二，因为它们是相互关联的，我们在 2008 年创造了“交易对手风险”这个词，后来这个词成为一件大事。

And, you know, one person's assets was the next person's liabilities, and they could fall like dominoes, and appeared to be in the process of doing so, until the process was arrested, what I guess we'd say 16 years ago this month, but I don't see that degree of interconnectedness or the degree of leverage. And you know if, if some private credit loans turn out to have been mistakes, and some pension funds or sovereign wealth funds lose a little money, I don't think anybody's going to hold the benefit or rush in with the rescue program. So I think that the risks are idiosyncratic, not systemic and not alarming.
而且，你知道，一个人的资产就是下一个人的负债，他们可能会像多米诺骨牌一样倒下，而且似乎正在倒下，直到这个过程被阻止，我想我们会说 16 年前的这个月，但我没有看到那种程度的相互关联或杠杆程度。你知道，如果一些私人信用贷款被证明是错误的，一些养老基金或主权财富基金损失了一点钱，我认为没有人会持有这笔钱或匆忙参与救助计划。所以我认为风险是特殊的，不是系统性的，也不是令人担忧的。

Neil:
尼尔：

Jim, back to you. So you know, where do we see are those specific sectors that you are excited about? We got $2.6 trillion dry powder now raised over the last several years for private equity, venture capital. I know you're spending time and focusing on ESG, New Energy. Tell us, like, what are the sectors that you got into?
Jim，回到你身上。 所以，您知道，我们看到您感兴趣的特定行业在哪里？在过去几年中，我们筹集了 2.6 万亿美元的干火药，用于私募股权和风险投资。我知道你花时间专注于 ESG，即新能源。告诉我们，比如，你进入了哪些行业？

Jim:
吉姆：

We're about to prove that it's not about the landing. One of the things that's interesting to me is we have an absolute fascination with landings. When you're flying home, the one time the plane is quiet is when we're about to set down, even though it's safer than when you pull out of your garage. Same thing is true in the financial markets. Great party game is how long you can watch a financial show without someone saying, hard landing, soft landing. Always take the under.
我们即将证明，这与着陆无关。对我来说有趣的一件事是，我们对着陆非常着迷。当你飞回家时，飞机唯一安静的时候就是我们即将降落的时候，即使这比你从车库里出来时要安全。金融市场也是如此。伟大的派对游戏是你可以看一个财经节目多长时间，而不会有人说，硬着陆，软着陆。总是走得低。

And having traveled a lot, it's never about the landing that trip. It's where you start and where you end. And I worry that right now in the financial markets, we've had a four-year debate. I think this is the longest one Neil I can ever think of, of hard landing, soft landing, hard landing, soft landing. But where are we landing?
而且我去了很多次，这从来都不是关于着陆那次旅行。这是您开始和结束的地方。我担心，现在在金融市场上，我们已经进行了四年的辩论。我认为这是我能想到的最长的一次 Neil，硬着陆，软着陆，硬着陆，软着陆。但是我们该往哪里着陆呢？

So I'm not a macroeconomics person, so where we're landing is a very different place. I was jet lagged in Mumbai the other day. I woke up. I thought I woke up in 1978, there are missiles in Gaza. There were tanks in Eastern Europe. There were politicians talking about price controls and tariffs like this is a totally different world. We've assumed margins would go up forever, that markets would be global. We are in a different place. And have you packed for it? Eras are often defined by their business models. We are in battles. We are going into some of the biggest business battles you've ever seen. Yes, AI, is big, but who's going to win? This is Battle of the Titans.
所以我不是一个宏观经济学人，所以我们的着陆点是一个非常不同的地方。前几天我在孟买倒时差。我醒了。我以为我在 1978 年醒来，加沙有导弹。东欧有坦克。有政客谈论价格控制和关税，就像这是一个完全不同的世界。我们假设利润率会永远上升，市场将是全球性的。我们处于一个不同的地方。你准备好了吗？时代通常由其商业模式定义。我们正在战斗。我们将进行一些您见过的最大的商业斗争。是的，AI 很大，但谁会赢呢？这就是泰坦之战。

Someone is going to lose. Autos, you want to get a country upset, talk about their auto industry. We have EVs, we have ice engines, we have hybrids, we have self-driving cars. We thought it was going to be about existing companies that were remaking the guts of their cars. We thought it might be about Tesla. It may be about battery companies that are just wrapping their batteries in cars, and those are now at 15% the price of an original Tesla. So what about it when EVs are cheap? Streaming. Who's going to win that? Data centers? I agree with you, John, but the profit pools are very unclear.
有人会输。Autos， youou want to get a country ups， talk to their auto industry.我们有电动汽车，我们有内燃机，我们有混合动力车，我们有自动驾驶汽车。我们认为这将是关于正在重塑其汽车内部的现有公司。我们认为这可能是关于特斯拉的。这可能是关于那些只是将电池包装在汽车中的电池公司，而这些电池现在的价格是原装特斯拉的 15%。那么，当电动汽车便宜时呢？Streaming.谁会赢呢？Data centers？ 我同意你的看法，John，但利润池非常不清楚。

These are going to be fascinating, and what it will take to sort that out is not macroeconomics, it's actually investing skills and what's on the table. Supply chains are 100% on the table today. For 40 years, we've been making them one way, just in just in time. Now, of a sudden, as someone said, just in case, we're bringing them back home, we're going to remake them in a few years. We're remaking our whole IT system on AI. We're remaking our whole energy system. We've done all these things before. We've never done them all at once. Huge capital is going to be needed. Huge investment skills are going to be needed. And then, just to kind of give you an investor's perspective on the question you asked, you know, sustainability was an evangelical thing that was taken over by SASB and G fans and SBTI etcetera. It's now quietly become a practical thing, and if you cut through the noise to the signal, it's the cheapest form of energy in 85% of the world. Last year, it was $2 trillion of spending in capex, fossil fuels were a billion and a half. Yes, policy is going to change. But policy change in health care all the time, and we all invest in that. Most of the policy debate appears to be on the Texas, Oklahoma border. India is not so worried about that.
这些将会很有趣，解决这个问题需要的不是宏观经济学，而是投资技巧和摆在桌面上的东西。如今，供应链 100% 摆在桌面上。40 年来，我们一直在以一种方式及时制造它们。现在，突然之间，正如有人所说，为了以防万一，我们要把它们带回家，我们将在几年内重新制作它们。我们正在 AI 上重塑我们的整个 IT 系统。我们正在重塑我们的整个能源系统。我们以前做过所有这些事情。我们从来没有一次完成所有任务。将需要巨额资金。将需要巨大的投资技巧。然后，为了给你一个投资者对你提出的问题的看法，你知道，可持续发展是一个福音派的东西，被 SASB 和 G 粉丝以及 SBTI 等人接管了。它现在已经悄悄地成为一种实用的东西，如果你把噪音直接变成信号，它是世界上 85% 的地区最便宜的能源形式。去年，资本支出为 2 万亿美元，化石燃料为 15 亿美元。是的，政策将发生变化。但医疗保健的政策一直在变化，我们都在这方面进行了投资。大多数政策辩论似乎都在德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州的边界上。印度对此并不那么担心。

So around the world, this is kind of happening and how we get behind it as investors is going to be critical. This idea of, you said it's going to be about Alpha, but if I'm going to invest in something right now, I'm going to invest in investing skills, because this is an era where your Alpha is going to come not from risk on, risk off, but which risk?
因此，在全球范围内，这种情况正在发生，作为投资者，我们如何支持它将至关重要。你说过，这将是关于 Alpha 的，但如果我现在要投资某样东西，我会投资于投资技巧，因为在这个时代，你的 Alpha 不会来自风险开启、风险关闭，而是来自哪种风险？

Neil:
尼尔：

So one area in the private investment we haven't touched is real estate. Harvey, what's your take on the market? Because we have seen some significant repricing of the market over the last two years, and there are a lot of changing dynamics. There are headwinds on inflation. There's continued easing coming on the interest rate side, and then there's companies asking or demanding their employees to go back to the office. So what's your take? Do you agree with John's comment early about the sector?
因此，我们尚未触及的私人投资领域之一是房地产。Harvey，您对这个市场有什么看法？因为在过去两年中，我们看到市场发生了一些重大的重新定价，并且有很多变化的动态。通货膨胀有 h ewinds。利率方面继续出台宽松政策，然后有公司要求或要求他们的员工重返岗位。 那么你怎么看呢？您是否同意 John 早期对该行业的评论？

Harvey:
哈维：

So the headline, because it's always bad to stand the last panel between all of you and lunch, but the headline, short answer on real estate is, we like it. I think for a lot of people in the world that are not really embedded in the market, particularly in the United States, they think of real estate as, do you like Office or not? Because that's what's gotten all the attention. And the real important point which John talked about is it's not homogeneous. So we've been in real estate for well over 20 years. We have an extraordinary team. They're actually actively raising capital now. So I can't speak a lot about that, but what I will say is this, when you actually begin to bifurcate the market into its component parts, when you look at office, we are not exactly particularly enthusiastic about office right now, broadly speaking, there are certainly very significant opportunities.
所以标题，因为在你们所有人和午餐之间站在最后一个小组讨论总是很糟糕，但标题，关于房地产的简短回答是，我们喜欢它。我认为，对于世界上很多没有真正融入市场的人来说，尤其是在美国，他们认为房地产是，你喜欢还是不喜欢 Office？因为这就是引起所有关注的原因。John 谈到的真正重要的一点是，它不是同质的。因此，我们在房地产领域已有 20 多年的历史。我们拥有一支非凡的团队。他们现在实际上正在积极筹集资金。 所以我不能多说什么，但我要说的是，当你真正开始将市场分为几个组成部分时，当你看一下写字楼时，我们现在对写字楼并不是特别热衷，从广义上讲，肯定有非常大的机会。

But right now, if you look at the for example, occupancy rates are running five 6% above historical averages, even during some stress periods of time, and about a trillion to a trillion and a half dollars of real estate exposure, office space exposure sits on bank balance sheets. That's not a health care Surgeon General's warning about that, that's well understood by the banking system, but it's a very slow moving iceberg that has to be digested. And so when we think about that, sometimes we think, well, maybe the opportunities are more on the debt side of office, and certainly as it relates to people demanding, people coming back to work, when you look at the levels of return, it's not as significant in the US as it is in other parts of the world.
但现在，如果你看一下，即使在一些压力时期，入住率也比历史平均水平高出 5 个 6%，大约一万亿到三美元半的房地产风险敞口，办公空间风险敞口位于银行资产负债表上。这不是医疗保健外科医生对此的警告，银行系统对此很清楚，但这是一座移动非常缓慢的冰山，必须消化。因此，当我们考虑这个问题时，有时我们会想，也许机会更多地在办公室的债务方面，当然，由于它与要求高的人有关，人们重返工作岗位，当你看一下回报率水平时，它在美国并不像在世界其他地区那样重要。

And I think we have to assume, at this stage, until we get different information, that the demographics of office space have just completely changed for an extended period of time with respect to the rest of it, one of the things that's happened is interest rates went up, which maybe wasn't as well anticipated by all of us as we should, is the benefit to homeowners. So for example, take my niece, who's a speech therapist on the East Coast. She locked in her mortgage at 2.7%. That asset, that financial asset for her, looks like a lot of financial assets for a lot of consumers in the United States, that is her best asset, other than when her uncle passes away, which hopefully that doesn't materialize anytime soon. So that's a valuable asset for her.
我认为我们必须假设，在这个阶段，在我们得到不同的信息之前，写字楼的人口结构相对于其他部分来说已经完全改变了很长一段时间，发生的一件事是利率上升，这可能没有像我们所有人应该预料的那样好。 是房主的好处。 以我的侄女为例，她是东海岸的一名语言治疗师。她将抵押贷款锁定在 2.7%。That 资产，对她来说，这种金融资产，对于美国的许多消费者来说，看起来是很多金融资产，这是她最好的资产，除了她的叔叔去世时，希望这不会很快成为现实。所以这对她来说是一笔宝贵的财富。

But as rates went up, people were very reluctant to move and of course, they don't have to move as much now because they can work from home, and so you haven't had the residential creation of housing. And so you do have the shortage that John talked about, multi family rental housing. And then demographics, which really drive are the key here, in terms of the shortage of housing construction because of rates being higher. So there's certainly segments we like, whether it's, you know, warehousing, logistics. I think that's all a very bright spot. And with Office, we're super selective.
但随着利率的上升，人们非常不愿意搬家，当然，他们现在不必搬家那么多，因为他们可以在家工作，所以你还没有建造住房。所以你确实有 John 谈到的短缺，多户出租住房。然后是人口结构，真正驱动因素是这里的关键，因为房价较高导致住房建设短缺。所以肯定有我们喜欢的细分市场，无论是仓储、物流。我认为这都是一个非常亮点。使用 Office，我们非常有选择性。

Neil:
尼尔：

Thank you. So Joe, back in 2005 you are employee number one for KKR in Hong Kong or in Asia. Now the firm has expanded to nine offices in the region. You have close to 70 billion under management here. So how do you see that market evolve and moving forward what are the opportunities in Asia, both as a fundraising sort of destination as well as investment destinations?
谢谢。 Joe，早在 2005 年，您就是 KKR 在香港或亚洲的头号员工。现在，该公司已在该地区扩展到 9 个办事处。您在这里管理着近 700 亿。那么，您如何看待亚洲市场的发展和未来发展，无论是作为筹款目的地还是投资目的地？

Joe:
乔：

It's actually closer to $80 billion in capital now. But you know, when I moved here in 2005, it was a very early stage for what we did in private equity, which is large cap buyouts. So we had to adapt our strategy. We were doing a lot of growth investing in addition to buyout transactions. So markets like India, Southeast Asia, China, was a lot of growth, and that was a change for our firm. So probably the three things that we have to do differently here. You know, number one, we made the decision to really localize heavily from day one. So we have close to 625 people on the ground right now, nine offices. I have two expats on the ground in Asia. Today, it's all local hires, local executives in each of these offices.
它现在的资本实际上接近 800 亿美元。但你知道，当我在 2005 年搬到这里时，这是我们在私募股权领域所做的非常早期的阶段，即大盘股收购。 因此，我们不得不调整我们的策略。除了收购交易之外，我们还进行了大量增长投资。因此，印度、东南亚、中国等市场增长迅速，这对我们公司来说是一个变化。所以，这可能是我们在这里必须做不同的三件事。首先，我们决定从第一天起就进行大量本地化。我们现在有近 625 名员工，有 9 个办公室。我有两名外籍人士在亚洲。今天，每个办事处都是本地员工和本地高管。

The second major decision we have to make was, do we want to raise a regional fund for our different strategies, or do we want to be part of a global fund? And I'm glad we made the harder choice of raising regional funds, first time, funds in this part of the world, because we have more flexibility to allocate capital in this part of the world and actually recruit talent who's super excited to invest in this part of the world.
我们必须做出的第二个重大决定 是，我们是想为我们的不同策略组建一个区域基金，还是想成为全球基金的一部分？我很高兴我们做出了更艰难的选择，首次在世界这一地区筹集区域资金，因为我们有更大的灵活性来在世界这一地区分配资本，并真正招募到对投资非常兴奋的人才。

And third, there are a lot of our peers who are raising country specific funds, or much more narrowly focused funds. We wanted to have a pan Asian approach from day one. This is a very dynamic part of the world. You need to be able to allocate capital pretty nimbly and flexibly across these different countries. It's not just valuation, but it's macro conditions. Its regulatory conditions. So you're going to flex people and capital into different parts of Asia at different points in the cycle.
第三，我们有很多同行正在筹集特定国家的基金，或者更狭隘的基金。我们希望从第一天起就采用 pan Asian 方法。这是世界上一个非常有活力的地方。您需要能够在这些不同的国家/地区非常灵活地分配资本。这不仅仅是估值，还有宏观条件。其监管条件。因此，您将在周期的不同阶段将人员和资本灵活分配到亚洲的不同地区。

So, you know, I actually said, when we started our business, Asian, 2005 as employee number one. I said, at some point in my career, KKR Asia is going to be as large as the US and private equity. I think that's true in you know, when I look out next 15, 20, years, when you think about China, India ASEAN and Japan compared to the US as a single market, there's no reason Asia can't be as big and private.
所以，你知道，我实际上说过，当我们在 2005 年开始我们的业务时，Asian 是第一名员工。我说过，在我职业生涯的某个阶段，KKR 亚洲的规模将与美国和私募股权一样大。我认为这是真的，当我展望未来 15 年、20 年时，当你考虑中国、印度、东盟和日本与美国相比作为一个单一市场时，没有理由不能像美国一样大和私有。

Neil:
尼尔：

So when will that be cheap, another 10 years?
那么什么时候会便宜，再过 10 年呢？

Joe:
乔：

Well China would go a little faster. No, Japan is the big upside surprise. If you said to me, we'd be sitting here in 2024 and outside of the United States, Japan would be the second largest destination for our private equity capital and our real estate investing capital. I bet no one would make that bet, but it is today. And you know, I said this at our investor day, if you look at our global private equity returns in every single country around the world. Our best returns are in Japan through private equity. It's a combination of low valuations, cheap financing, but most importantly, massive, massive operational improvement potential in these companies that we're buying. So you know, we're still very bullish about this part of the world, and we got a lot of growth ahead of us.
好吧，中国会走得更快一些。不，日本是最大的上行惊喜。如果你对我说，我们将在 2024 年坐在这里，在美国之外，日本将成为我们私募股权资本和房地产投资资本的第二大目的地。我敢打赌没有人会下这样的赌注，但就是今天。你知道，我在投资者日上说过这句话，如果你看看我们在全球每个国家的全球私募股权回报。我们最好的回报是在日本通过私募股权。这是低估值、廉价融资的结合，但最重要的是，我们收购的这些公司具有巨大的运营改进潜力。所以，我们仍然非常看好世界的这一地区，我们还有很大的增长空间。

Neil:
尼尔：

Thanks. Now come down to my last question. In fact, this morning, actually, I asked ChatGPT, what are the questions that I should ask in this group of heavyweights, and I've input every single person's name, and you know, I think we are more or less cover all the questions which GPT suggested. But interestingly, GPT didn't ask me to ask me to ask my last question, which is, what is AI's impact on your business? And I would like each of us to have a very quick answer to that. And obviously do you invest in AI and how does AI impact your business? Maybe from Joe first.
谢谢。现在来谈谈我的最后一个问题。事实上，今天早上，实际上，我问了 ChatGPT，在这群重量级人物中我应该问什么问题，我已经输入了每个人的名字，你知道，我认为我们或多或少涵盖了 GPT 建议的所有问题。但有趣的是，GPT 并没有让我问 最后一个问题，即人工智能对您的业务有什么影响？我希望我们每个人都能快速回答这个问题。显然，您是否投资于 AI， 以及 AI 如何影响您的业务？也许先从 Joe 那里。

Joe:
乔：

So we are not early stage tech investors, right? That's just not what we do in terms of seed or venture. So the classic way people probably think about investing in AI, that's not what we do. We're massive investors in data centers, digital infrastructure, things are can be fundamentally driven by AI implementation, I would say, based on the other panel we heard today, for us, it's really about, how do we drive productivity in our companies? We're not looking to AI to say we want a standalone investment in a growth equity bet or a venture bet. We're trying to figure out ways to leverage AI to make our businesses better.
所以，我们不是早期的科技投资者，对吧？这不是我们在种子或风险投资方面所做的。因此，人们可能以传统方式考虑投资 AI，这不是我们所做的。我们是数据中心、数字基础设施的大量投资者，从根本上说，人工智能的实施可以驱动，我想说，根据我们今天听到的另一个小组讨论，对我们来说，这实际上是关于我们如何提高公司的生产力？我们并不是希望 AI 说我们想要对成长型股票押注或风险押注进行独立投资。我们正在努力找出利用 AI 改善业务的方法。

Neil:
尼尔：

Jim?
吉姆？

Jim:
吉姆：
I'm a little conservative on investing in it, because I just remember it was 12 years from the palm pilot to the iPhone. Things take a little time, but it's picks and shovels, so at this point, it's going to touch everything, and we're massive investors in clean power through our sustainability. And suddenly AI is all about clean power. Who knew?
我对投资它有点保守，因为我只记得从 Palm 飞行员到 iPhone 花了 12 年时间。事情需要一点时间，但这是镐和铲子，所以在这一点上，它将触及一切，通过我们的可持续性，我们是清洁能源的大量投资者。突然之间，AI 完全是关于清洁能源的。谁知道呢？

Neil:
尼尔：

Rob?
抢？


Rob:
抢：

I would echo the point that Jim made earlier on. I think there are going to be real winners and losers within the AI environment, AI as a total. So yes, we are very, very interested in in AI. We're investing in it heavily, and we are utilizing it across our portfolio, but it is about selecting, certainly in terms of the companies we're investing in, it's looking at the companies that can really benefit from AI, but the ones that actually can be taken out by AI. And really working that question out is going to be key.
我会回应 Jim 之前提出的观点。我认为 AI 环境中将有真正的赢家和输家，AI 作为一个 整体。是的，我们对 AI 非常非常感兴趣。我们正在对其进行大量投资，并在我们的投资组合中使用它，但这是关于选择的，当然就我们投资的公司而言，它着眼于真正可以从 A 中受益的公司，但实际上是可以被 AI 淘汰的公司。真正解决这个问题将是关键。

Neil:
尼尔：

Howard?
霍华德？


Howard:
霍华德：

Credit investors like us don't have much to do with investing in AI at this time. We do facilities, we do we have a power infrastructure fund that will benefit. But, you know, I'm an old fashioned investor, and I think real alpha is about thinking of things other people haven't thought of and getting to solutions, and what I call second level thinking. And I'm not convinced yet that a computer can be trained to out think the other computers, which is what it's going to come down to. So I hope and believe there will still be room for people. At the best investment insights
像我们这样的信贷投资者目前与投资 AI 没有太大关系。我们做设施，我们做，我们有一个电力基础设施基金，它将受益。但是，你知道，我是一个老派的投资者，我认为真正的 alpha 是关于思考其他人没有想到的事情并找到解决方案，我称之为第二层次的思考。而且我还不相信一台计算机可以被训练成比其他计算机思考更胜一筹，这就是它要归结的原因。 所以我希望并相信人们仍然有空间。最佳投资洞察

Neil:
尼尔：

Harvey?
哈维？

Harvey:
哈维：

From our perspective, and this word came up, use cases came up a lot earlier. I think use cases are key. So we think about, how can we invest better? How can we make our portfolio companies operate and improve better, and how can we run the firm better? And maybe I'll just give people two quick, super quick examples. But when rates went up and Silicon Valley Bank went out of business and the Fed was raising rates, we took all of our interest rate hedges for all of our portfolio companies, and we ran them through chat.
从我们的角度来看，这个词出现了，用例出现得更早。我认为用例是关键。所以我们思考，我们如何才能更好地投资？我们如何让我们的投资组合公司更好地运营和改进，我们如何更好地运营公司？也许我只给人们举两个快速、超级快速的例子。但是，当利率上升，硅谷银行倒闭，美联储加息时，我们把 所有投资组合公司的所有利率对冲都进行了，并通过聊天进行。

And that's not particularly innovative. But the thing that was interesting was we said, how do you want to think? We basically said to Chat, please run 10 different scenarios. And for me, embarrassingly, because even if I had Chat, I wasn't the kid that was going to do that well in school, but the 10 scenarios came back. And so I said to the team, why those scenarios? And they said, See, that's what we don't know. But just assume Chat has read every finance book in the world. But, you know, people like Howard have been running stress tests and analysis. But I bet if those tools existed, which are pretty rudimentary at this stage, you know, you don't have a Silicon Valley Bank, because those scenarios easily get, get run. So you can really do that.
这并不是特别创新。但有趣的是，我们说，你想怎么想？我们基本上对 Chat 说，请运行 10 种不同的场景。对我来说，很尴尬，因为即使我戴了 C帽，我也不是那个在学校会做得那么好的孩子，但 10 种情况又回来了。所以我对团队说，为什么会出现这些情况？他们说，看，这就是我们不知道的。但只要假设 Chat 读过世界上所有的金融书籍。但是，你知道，像 Howard 这样的人一直在进行压力测试和分析。但我敢打赌，如果存在这些工具，这些工具在现阶段还非常初级，你知道，你没有硅谷银行，因为这些情况很容易获得、运行。 所以你真的可以做到这一点。

The other thing I'll say just the other end of the spectrum. We took 50 portfolio companies, CEOs and CTOs, to OpenAI last spring for two days. And at the end of the two days, I said to the group, I said, show of hands. Who here thinks they've had some sort of light bulb moment in terms of how to innovate in their company that they otherwise didn't know about before. They spent two days here with Sam and the team and Brad and 80% of the hands went up. Now I don't know we're tracking all those use cases. I don't know how many of those will be real use cases, but even if it's half or 25% it's material. And I agree with exactly Rob said, in some cases, these are businesses that will avoid going out of business, and in some cases, they will just get much, much better. But I think underestimating the influence this will have over the next five or 10 years, the opportunities are extraordinary, but if you don't manage to it, I think you probably do it at your peril.
我要说的另一件事是光谱的另一端。去年春天，我们带了 50 家投资组合公司、首席执行官和首席技术官参加了为期两天的 OpenAI。在两天结束时，我对小组说，我说，举手表决。在座的谁认为他们在公司如何创新方面经历了某种他们以前不知道的灵光乍现的时刻。他们与 Sam 和团队以及 Brad 一起在这里度过了两天，80% 的人都举起了手。现在我不知道我们正在跟踪所有这些用例。我不知道其中有多少是真实的用例，但即使只有一半或 25%，它也是实质性的。我完全同意 Rob 所说的，在某些情况下，这些企业可以避免倒闭，而在某些情况下，它们只会变得更好。但我认为，如果低估了未来 5 年或 10 年的影响，机会是非凡的，但如果你没有做到，我认为你可能会自食其果。

Neil:
尼尔：
Thank you. We're completely run out of time, but I really appreciate all the time and insights from this group of panellists, let's give another round of applause. Thank you

谢谢。我们的时间已经完全用完了，但我真的很感谢这群小组成员的所有时间和见解，让我们再次鼓掌。谢谢