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BOX 4.1 UK HOUSE PRICES
盒子 4.1 英国房价

The ups and downs of the housing market
住房市场的起起伏伏

If you are thinking of buying a house sometime in the future, then you may well follow the fortunes of the housing market with some trepidation.
如果您打算在未来某个时候购买房屋,那么您可能会对住房市场的命运感到有些忐忑不安。

It is an exceptionally important market to consumers and government, with households spending more on housing as a proportion of their income than on anything else.
对于消费者和政府来说,这是一个异常重要的市场,家庭在住房上的支出占其收入的比例比其他任何事物都要多。
Movements in the housing market are rarely out of the news. This is not only because nominal (actual) prices are increasing over the longer term, but, more significantly, because they are increasing in real terms too.
住房市场的变动很少不受关注。这不仅因为名义(实际)价格长期上涨,更重要的是,它们也在实际价值上上涨。

This means that house prices are increasing relative to general prices. The average UK house price in January 1970 was a little over . By January 2017, as shown in the following table, it had risen to around , an increase of nearly 5400 per cent.
这意味着房价相对于一般价格在上涨。1970 年 1 月英国的平均房价略高于 。截至 2017 年 1 月,如下表所示,它已上升到约 ,增长了近 5400%。

Average UK house price and RPI (January)
英国平均房价和零售价格指数(RPI)(一月)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
House price (£) 房价(£) 3920 19273 58250 84620 167469 215037
RPI (Jan.
10.8 37.4 71.5 100.0 131.1 160.6
House price at 房价在
constant Jan. 恒定 1 月
21736 30810 48643 50539 76299 79954
1987 consumer 1987 年消费者
prices (£)
Sources: Consumer Price Inflation time series dataset and UK House Price Index: reports (Office for National Statistics).
数据来源:消费者物价通胀时间序列数据集和英国房价指数:报告(国家统计局)。
Although house prices have increased significantly over the past 50 years, there has also been a great deal of volatility in this market - more so than in general prices across the economy.
尽管过去 50 年房价显著上涨,但这个市场的波动性也非常大,比整体经济中的一般价格波动更为剧烈。

In the 1970s and 1980s, annual house price inflation rates exceeded 50 and 30 per cent, respectively. Between 1984 and 1989, house prices doubled and this led to a rush to buy houses, with borrowing increasing significantly.
在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代,年房价通胀率分别超过 50%和 30%。在 1984 年至 1989 年期间,房价翻了一番,导致人们争相购房,借贷大幅增加。
However, this was followed by a protracted period of real and nominal house price falls between 1990 and 1995, where house prices fell by 12.2 per cent, sending many households into negative equity.
然而,这之后的 1990 年至 1995 年间出现了长时间的实际和名义房价下跌期,房价下降了 12.2%,导致许多家庭陷入负资产。

This occurs when the size of a household's mortgage is greater than the value of their house, meaning that, if they sold their house, they would still owe money! Many people, therefore, found themselves in a situation where they were unable to move house.
当一个家庭的抵押贷款金额大于他们房屋的价值时,就会出现这种情况,这意味着如果他们卖掉房子,他们仍然会欠钱!因此,许多人发现自己无法搬家。
By the end of the 1990s, house price inflation had returned and we saw a period of protracted house price growth, such that, by the end of 2002, house prices were rising by an annual rate of 26 per cent: good news for sellers, but firsttime buyers were struggling to get on the property ladder.
到了 1990 年代末,房价通货膨胀回归,我们看到了一个持续房价增长的时期,以至于到了 2002 年底,房价以每年 26%的速度上涨:对卖家来说是个好消息,但首次购房者却很难踏上购房之路。

The gross house-price-to-earnings ratio for first-time buyers had increased from just over 2 in the mid-1990s to over 5 times the size of a first-time buyer's earnings by 2007.
首次购房者的房价收入比从 1990 年代中期的略高于 2 倍增长到 2007 年时超过首次购房者收入 5 倍。
As the UK economy entered recession in 2008, house prices began to decline again, falling at an annual rate of 17.5 per cent in early 2009. Despite a slight recovery in 2010, followed by a small decline, house prices remained relatively flat until late 2013, when, once more, they began to grow.
随着英国经济在 2008 年进入衰退,房价再次开始下跌,2009 年初以每年 17.5%的速度下降。尽管 2010 年有轻微复苏,随后有小幅下降,但房价一直保持相对平稳,直到 2013 年底再次开始增长。

This was helped particularly by strong growth in London and the South East of England. Then, in 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU and the growth in house prices once more began to slow.
这主要得益于伦敦和英格兰东南部的强劲增长。然后,在 2016 年,英国投票决定脱离欧盟,房价增长再次开始放缓。

What causes house price volatility?
是什么导致房价波动?

House prices are determined by demand and supply.
房价由需求和供应决定。
If demand rises (i.e. shifts to the right) or if supply falls (i.e. shifts to the left), the equilibrium price of houses will rise. Similarly, if demand falls or supply rises, the equilibrium price will fall.
如果需求上升(即向右移动)或供应下降(即向左移动),房屋的均衡价格将上涨。同样,如果需求下降或供应上升,均衡价格将下降。
So why did UK house prices rise so rapidly in the 1980S, the late 1990s through to 2007 and once more from 2013 to 2016? Why did they also fall in the early 1990 s and then fall again from 2008 to 2013 and since the EU referendum?
那么为什么英国房价在 1980 年代、1990 年代末至 2007 年以及 2013 年至 2016 年间迅速上涨?为什么它们在 1990 年代初也下跌,然后从 2008 年至 2013 年再次下跌,以及自英国脱欧公投以来?

The answer lies primarily in changes in the demand for housing. Let us examine the various factors that affected the demand for houses.
答案主要在于对住房需求的变化。让我们来看看影响房屋需求的各种因素。

Incomes (actual and anticipated)
收入(实际和预期)

The second half of the 1980s, 1996 to 2007 and from 2013 to 2016 were periods of rising incomes or recovery. The economy was experiencing an economic 'boom' or a recovery from recession.
20 世纪 80 年代下半叶,1996 年至 2007 年以及 2013 年至 2016 年是收入增长或复苏的时期。经济正在经历经济“繁荣”或从衰退中复苏。

Many people wanted to spend their extra incomes on housing: either buying a house for the first time or moving to a better one.
许多人希望将他们额外的收入用于住房:要么是首次购房,要么是搬到更好的房子。

What is more, many people thought that their incomes would continue to grow, and were thus prepared to stretch themselves financially in the short term by buying an expensive house, confident that their mortgage payments would become more and more affordable over time.
此外,许多人认为他们的收入将继续增长,因此愿意在短期内通过购买昂贵的房屋来进行财务上的伸展,他们相信随着时间推移,他们的抵押贷款支付将变得越来越负担得起。
The early 1990 s and from 2008 to 2012, by contrast, were periods of low or negative growth, with rising unemployment and falling incomes. People had much less confidence about their ability to afford large mortgages.
相比之下,上世纪 90 年代初和 2008 年至 2012 年是低增长或负增长的时期,失业率上升,收入下降。人们对负担得起大额抵押贷款的能力信心大大降低。

Similarly, in 2017, rising inflation rates caused real incomes to fall and this, together with uncertainty about the future of the UK outside of the EU, had a negative impact on demand for housing.
同样,2017 年,通货膨胀率上升导致实际收入下降,加上对英国脱欧后景的不确定性,对住房需求产生了负面影响。

The desire for home ownership
对拥有住房的渴望

The desire for home ownership has increased over the years, fuelled by many television programmes focused on buying and selling property.
多年来,受到许多关注购买和出售房产的电视节目的推动,对拥有住房的渴望不断增加。

There has also been an increase in the number of households, due to increased life expectancy and changing demographics, such as more single-parent families and flows of workers from EU countries.
由于预期寿命增加和人口结构变化,如单亲家庭增加以及来自欧盟国家的工人流动,家庭数量也在增加。

In 1981, there were 20 million households in the UK; by 2017, this had increased to 27.3 million.
1981 年,英国有 2000 万户家庭;到 2017 年,这一数字增加到了 2730 万户。

The cost of mortgages
抵押贷款的成本

During the second half of the 1980s, mortgage interest rates generally were falling. This meant that people could afford larger mortgages and thus afford to buy more expensive houses. In 1989, however, this trend was reversed. Mortgage interest rates were now rising.
在 1980 年代下半叶,抵押贷款利率普遍下降。这意味着人们能够负担更大的抵押贷款,从而买得起更昂贵的房子。然而,到 1989 年,这一趋势发生了逆转。抵押贷款利率开始上升。

Many people found it difficult to maintain existing payments, let alone to take on a larger mortgage. From 1996 to 2003, mortgage rates generally were reduced again, once more fuelling the demand for houses.
许多人发现很难维持现有的支付,更不用说承担更大的抵押贷款了。从 1996 年到 2003 年,抵押贷款利率普遍再次降低,再次刺激了对房屋的需求。

From 2003 to 2007, interest rates rose again, but this was not enough to deter the demand for housing.
从 2003 年到 2007 年,利率再次上升,但这并不足以阻止对住房的需求。
Source: Based on data in Halifax House Price Index (Lloyds Banking Group)
来源:基于 Halifax 房价指数(Lloyds 银行集团)的数据
Between 2009 and 2018, interest rates remained low, which reduced the cost of mortgage repayments, but this did not cause an increase in housing demand until 2013, due to the continued economic uncertainty following the financial crisis and cautious mortgage lenders.
2009 年至 2018 年间,利率保持较低水平,降低了抵押贷款的成本,但直到 2013 年,由于金融危机后持续存在的经济不确定性和谨慎的抵押贷款放贷人,这并没有导致住房需求增加。

The recovery in housing demand from around 2013, although driven partly by the recovery of the economy, was helped by continuing low interest rates, but, from the second half of 2016, uncertainty returned to the market due to the result of the EU referendum.
从 2013 年左右开始的住房需求复苏,虽然在一定程度上受到经济复苏的推动,但持续低利率的帮助,但从 2016 年下半年开始,由于英国脱欧公投结果,市场再度出现不确定性。

The availability of mortgages
抵押贷款的可获得性

In the late 1980s and from 1997 to 2007, mortgages were readily available. Banks and building societies were prepared to accept smaller deposits on houses and to grant large mortgages as house prices were rising so quickly.
在 20 世纪 80 年代末和 1997 年至 2007 年期间,抵押贷款是 readily 可获得的。银行和建筑协会愿意接受房屋较小的存款,并批准较大的抵押贷款,因为房价上涨得如此迅速。

In the early 1990 s and from the late 2000s, however, banks and building societies were more cautious about granting mortgages.
然而,在 20 世纪 90 年代初和 2000 年代末,银行和建筑协会对批准抵押贷款更加谨慎。

They were aware that, with falling house prices, rising unemployment and the growing problem of negative equity, there was a growing danger that borrowers would default on payments.
他们意识到,随着房价下跌、失业率上升和负资产问题日益严重,借款人违约付款的风险日益增加。
The problem in the late 2000s was compounded by the financial crisis, which meant that banks had less money to lend. Credit criteria remained tight into the early 2010s, so that purchasers had to find historically large deposits.
2000 年代末的问题加剧了金融危机,这意味着银行贷款资金减少。信贷标准一直很严格,直到 2010 年代初,购房者不得不支付历史上较大的首付款。

Many mortgage lenders were asking for deposits of at least 25 per cent over for an average house in the UK. This reduced significantly the number of first-time buyers. The deposit requirement eased a little through 2013 and 2014 and government-backed 'Help to Buy' schemes were introduced to help borrowers get a mortgage with a 5 per cent deposit.
许多抵押贷款机构要求在英国购买一般房屋时至少支付 25%的首付款。这显著减少了首次购房者的数量。2013 年和 2014 年,首付要求有所放宽,并引入了政府支持的“帮助购房”计划,帮助借款人以 5%的首付款获得抵押贷款。

The easing of credit constraints contributed towards an increase in house prices once again.
信贷限制的放松再次导致房价上涨。

Speculation 猜测

A belief that house prices will continue to move in a particular direction can exacerbate house price movements. In other
认为房价会继续朝特定方向发展的信念可能会加剧房价波动。在其他
www.helptobuy.gov.uk/.
words, speculation tends to increase house price volatility. In the 1980s and from the mid-1990s to 2007, people generally believed that house prices would continue rising.
在言论中,猜测往往会增加房价波动。在 20 世纪 80 年代和从 1990 年代中期到 2007 年,人们普遍认为房价会继续上涨。

This encouraged people to buy as soon as possible, and to take out the biggest mortgage possible, before prices went up any further. There was also an effect on supply. Those with houses to sell held back until the last possible moment in the hope of getting a higher price.
这鼓励人们尽快购买,并在房价进一步上涨之前尽可能贷款最多。这也对供应产生了影响。那些有房屋要出售的人一直等到最后一刻才出售,希望能获得更高的价格。

The net effect was for a rightward shift in the demand curve for houses and a leftward shift in the supply curve. The effect of this speculation, therefore, was to help bring about the very effect that people were predicting (see section 5.4).
净效应是房屋需求曲线向右移动,供给曲线向左移动。因此,这种猜测的效应是帮助实现人们预测的效果的(见第 5.4 节)。
In the early 1990s, and again from 2008, the opposite occurred. People thinking of buying houses held back, hoping to buy at a lower price. People with houses to sell tried to sell them as quickly as possible before prices fell any further.
在 1990 年代初和 2008 年再次发生了相反的情况。考虑购买房屋的人们犹豫不决,希望以更低的价格购买。有房屋要出售的人们试图在房价进一步下跌之前尽快出售房屋。

Again, the effect of this speculation was to aggravate the change in prices - this time a fall in prices.
同样,这种投机的影响加剧了价格的变化 - 这次是价格下跌。
The impact of speculation has also been compounded by the growth in the 'buy-to-let' industry, with mortgage lenders entering this market in large numbers. There was a huge amount of media attention on the possibilities for individuals to make very high returns.
投机的影响也受到了“买来出租”行业增长的影响,许多抵押贷款机构进入这个市场。媒体对个人获得高额回报的可能性给予了极大关注。

Supply 供应

While speculation about changing house prices is perhaps the biggest determinant of housing supply in the short term, over the long term, supply depends on house building.
尽管对房价变动的猜测可能是短期内住房供应的最大决定因素,但从长期来看,供应取决于住房建设。

Governments' housing policy is often focused on how to encourage the building industry by providing tax and other incentives and streamlining planning regulations.
政府的住房政策通常侧重于通过提供税收和其他激励措施以及简化规划法规来鼓励建筑行业。

But house building may bring adverse environmental and social problems and people often oppose new housing developments in their area.
但是房屋建设可能会带来不利的环境和社会问题,人们经常反对他们所在地区的新住房开发。
Housing supply is a hotly debated topic in the UK, with disagreement over how many, where and who should build new houses. Some of these issues are discussed in articles from the Financial Times, The Guardian, Bloomberg and The Daily Telegraph. You can also read more about it from a UK Parliament briefing and from data on new builds from the Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government.
住房供应是英国一个备受争议的话题,人们对于应该建造多少套房屋、在哪里建造以及谁应该建造新房存在分歧。一些相关问题在《金融时报》、《卫报》、彭博社和《每日电讯报》的文章中有所讨论。您也可以从英国议会的简报和住房、社区和地方政府部门的新建数据中了解更多信息。

A global dimension to falling house prices
房价下跌的全球维度

The fall in UK house prices in 2008 had global origins. The dramatic growth in mortgage lending in the UK was also a feature of many other industrialised countries at this time, most notably the USA, where there had been similar dramatic rises in house prices.
2008 年英国房价下跌具有全球性起源。英国抵押贷款的急剧增长也是当时许多其他工业化国家的特点,尤其是美国,在那里房价也出现了类似的急剧上涨。
Banks and other mortgage lenders bundled up these large mortgage debts into 'financial instruments' and sold them on to other global financial institutions so that they could meet their everyday liquidity requirements of paying bills and meeting customers' demands for cash.
银行和其他抵押贷款机构将这些大额抵押贷款捆绑成“金融工具”,然后转售给其他全球金融机构,以满足它们支付账单和满足客户提取现金需求的日常流动性要求。

This worked well while there was economic prosperity and people could pay their mortgages. However, it became apparent in 2007 that many of the mortgages sold, notably in the USA, were to people who could not meet their repayments.
在经济繁荣时期,人们能够支付他们的抵押贷款,这一切运作良好。然而,2007 年显露出一个问题,即许多出售的抵押贷款,尤其是在美国,是给那些无法偿还贷款的人。
As the number of mortgage defaults increased, the value of the mortgage-laden financial instruments sold on to other financial institutions fell.
随着抵押贷款违约数量的增加,转售给其他金融机构的抵押贷款负担金融工具的价值下降。

As banks found it increasingly difficult to meet their liquidity requirements, they reduced the number of mortgages to potential home owners.
随着银行发现越来越难满足其流动性要求,它们减少了向潜在购房者提供的抵押贷款数量。
Although housing markets in many countries have recovered as more housing finance has become available and as confidence has returned, the world economy has continued to become more interdependent.
尽管许多国家的房地产市场已经恢复,因为更多的住房金融可用并且信心已经恢复,但世界经济继续变得更加相互依存。

This means that the state of the global economy and global finance will be felt increasingly in housing markets around the world.
这意味着全球经济和全球金融状况将越来越多地影响世界各地的房地产市场。
  1. Draw supply and demand diagrams to illustrate what was happening to house prices (a) in the second half of the 1980s and from the late 1990s to 2007; (b) in the early 1990s and 2008-12; (c) in London and the South East of England from 2014-16.
    绘制供求图表,以说明房价在以下时期的变化情况:(a) 从 1980 年代下半年到 2007 年末;(b) 从 1990 年代初到 2008-2012 年;(c) 2014-2016 年伦敦和英格兰东南部地区的情况。
  2. Are there any factors on the supply side that contribute to changes in house prices? If so, what are they?
    供给方面是否有因素影响房价变化?如果有,是什么?
  3. Find out what has happened to house prices over the past three years. Attempt an explanation of what has happened.
    弄清楚过去三年房价的变化情况。尝试解释发生了什么。
Undertake an internet search to find out what forecasters are predicting for house prices over the next year and attempt to explain the role played by demand and supply in their forecasts.
进行互联网搜索,了解预测人士对未来一年房价的预测,并尝试解释需求和供应在他们预测中所起的作用。

  1. John Kay, 'How to solve the UK housing crisis', Financial Times
    约翰·凯,《如何解决英国住房危机》,《金融时报》
    (8 November 2017). (2017 年 11 月 8 日)。
    Ann Pettifor, 'Why building more homes will not solve Britain's housing crisis', The Guardian (27 January 2018).
    安·佩蒂福尔, '为什么修建更多住房不能解决英国的住房危机', 卫报 (2018 年 1 月 27 日)。
    Ferdinando Giugliano, 'To End U.K. Housing Shortage, Build More Houses. Duh.', Bloomberg (30 November 2017).
    费迪南多·朱利亚诺, '要结束英国的住房短缺问题,就要建造更多房屋。傻瓜。', 彭博社 (2017 年 11 月 30 日)。
  2. Isabelle Fraser, 'Number of homes on the market falls to a new low with housing market "stifled" by uncertainty, says Rics', The Telegraph (13 July 2017).
    伊莎贝尔·弗雷泽,《市场上的住房数量降至历史新低,住房市场因不确定性“受到压制”,根据 Rics 的说法》,《每日电讯报》(2017 年 7 月 13 日)。
    Wendy Wilson, 'Housing supply and demand', Key Issues for the New Parliament 2010, House of Commons Library Research (2010).
    温迪·威尔逊,《住房供需》,《2010 年新议会的关键问题》,英国下议院图书馆研究(2010 年)。
    Live tables on housing supply: net additional dwellings, Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government
    住房供应的实时数据表:净增加住宅,住房、社区和地方政府部。