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Commentary: VFC (Buy) | Thoughtful approach in a tough environment

17 June 2016 | 2:17AM EDT

We met with VFC management at company headquarters, including:

Eric Wiseman, CEO

Steve Rendle, President and COO,

Scott Roe, CFO

Stephen Dull, Strategy and Innovation

Brendan Sullivan, Direct to Consumer

Our key takeaways follow:

Environment:

  • Management calls out weather for having major negative effect on their business, as evidence by the sharp deceleration in trends that materialized in 4Q.
  • There is still a lot of cold weather product remaining in the system, and VFC thinks 3Q could get off to a promotional start as retailers / brands work through that carry over product, similar to how 2013 (which followed a very warm 2012 winter) played out.
  • Mass has been a very strong channel for them.
  • Their guidance already reflected a conservative scenario regarding The Sports Authority (TSA) and other retailer bankruptcies. What is not clear yet is how much negative impact the liquidated product being pumped through the system will have on their business.

Addressing changing shopping habits:

  • DTC has been an important growth and strategic initiative for VFC in the last several years, now at 27% of total sales. The company's focus has shifted increasingly towards digital, while dialing back on some prior store objectives. The head of DTC highlighted digital as the 1st plank in his 5 plank strategy for direct.
  • In an effort to address traffic declines, VFC is working to improve conversion through improving customer engagement and implementing better service models. We didn't get details on the specifics, but management is in the process of establishing a set of KPIs to measure success here.
  • Amazon (including Zappos) is a top 5 account for VFC globally and their #1 account in the EU. At the same time, it doesn't account for more than 3-4% of sales for any individual brand. The North Face (TNF) and Vans don't sell directly to AMZN in the US. VFC is focused on making sure product on the their own DTC is distinct from what's on AMZN and that there is price parity.
  • A different kind of corporate culture:

  • Management meetings helped dimensionalize some of the operating practices that make VFC a well run company. We heard the words "innovation" and "consumer insights" multiple times during our half-day of meetings, reflecting VFC's thoughtful and forward thinking approach to business.
  • VFC takes a disciplined and metrics driven approach to marketing, requiring a 30%-plus return on every dollar of spending. We heard examples of embracing TV advertising because TV still inspires mobile search.
  • Management discussed a more aggressive approach to innovating in apparel to add more "science" to garments. One specific initiative being tested in Lee China this August uses contouring to flatter a woman's figure. The garments a manufactured using lasers, and VFC owns the IP.
  • M&A

  • Management reiterated a desire to acquire another brand that fits within Outdoor & Athletic.
  • The key challenge has been agreeing on price and families willing to sell.
  • Management noted they were looking at targets large and small in size.
  • Our 12-month price target of $73 is based on 20X our 12-24mo forward EPS estimates.

    Last close: $62.30

    Lindsay Drucker Mann, CFA - Goldman, Sachs & Co.
    (212) 357-4993 lindsay.druckermann@gs.com

    Bill Schultz - Goldman, Sachs & Co.
    (212) 902-0044 bill.schultz@gs.com

    Edward McLaughlin - Goldman, Sachs & Co.
    (212) 357-4479 edward.mclaughlin@gs.com


    Legal and Certification Disclosures

    We, Lindsay Drucker Mann, CFA, Bill Schultz and Edward McLaughlin, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

    Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.

    Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see above. For other important disclosures go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

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