China Cries Uncle With Big Pledge on Property Crisis
中国在房地产危机中大力承诺求助

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China’s leadership, after showing limited concern about the nation’s sluggish growth in recent months, finally reached what Goldman Sachs termed its “pain threshold.”
中国领导层在对国家近期经济增长乏力表现出有限关注后，最终达到了高盛所称的“痛苦阈值”。

With measures including a raft of interest-rate cuts, a new facility to prop up the stock market and a plan to recapitalize banks, policymakers this week decisively shifted gears in an apparent effort to ensure the government’s 2024 growth target of about 5% is reached.
本周，政策制定者通过一系列措施，包括大幅降息、新设立支撑股市的机制以及计划对银行进行再资本化，果断转变了策略，显然是为了确保政府 2024 年约 5%的增长目标得以实现。

The first step to solving a problem, as the adage goes, is to recognize there is one. And the official statement following the Communist Party Politburo gathering on Thursday acknowledged “new issues and problems.” Arguably the most important part of the announcement was a pledge to get the real estate market “to stop declining and stabilize.”
解决问题的第一步，正如谚语所说，是认识到存在问题。在周四的共产党政治局会议后，官方声明承认了“新问题和困难”。可以说，公告中最重要的部分是承诺让房地产市场“停止下滑并稳定”。

“It’s one thing to lay out plans in bold statements, and another to put effective measures into action,” David Qu and Eric Zhu at Bloomberg Economics cautioned. “There’s clear upside risk” to the growth outlook, but the duo said that “we’ll assess the policies as they are implemented.” In other words, it’s not certain that the big investor cheer this week will be sustained.
“制定大胆计划是一回事，而付诸有效措施则是另一回事，”彭博经济学的 David Qu 和 Eric Zhu 警告道。“增长前景存在明显的上行风险，”但这对表示“我们将评估政策的实施情况。”换句话说，本周大投资者的欢呼并不一定会持续。

This week in the New Economy
本周新经济动态

• The Arctic is burning due to climate change—Russia sees opportunity.
  北极因气候变化而燃烧——俄罗斯看到机会。
• Middle Eastern investors flush with cash are pouring it into China.
  中东投资者手头资金充裕，正将其投入中国。
• Germany must get back in the reform business, OECD says.
  德国必须重返改革业务，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）表示。
• Biden and Modi unveil India chip plant plan, and JPMorgan eyes growth.
  拜登和莫迪揭晓印度芯片工厂计划，摩根大通关注增长。
• South Africa has lured its biggest wave of investment plans in years.
  南非吸引了近年来最大的一波投资计划。

China’s property slump—now in its fourth year—has weighed on consumer confidence and hurt domestic spending, so a real bailout would be a game-changer. The latest set of data showcased that, despite many announcements by both Beijing and local governments stretching back at least two years, housing remains mired in an epic slump.
中国的房地产低迷——现在已经进入第四年——对消费者信心造成了压力，并伤害了国内消费，因此真正的救助将是一个游戏规则的改变。最新的数据表明，尽管北京和地方政府在过去至少两年中做出了许多公告，但住房仍然陷入了史诗般的低迷。

The value of new-home sales by the top 100 developers tumbled almost 27% in August from a year before. Last August, they were down about 34%. In August 2022, sales slumped 33% year-on-year. In other words, the market has been cratering for some time now.
前 100 名开发商的新房销售额在 8 月份同比下降了近 27%。去年 8 月份，他们下降了约 34%。2022 年 8 月，销售额同比下滑了 33%。换句话说，市场已经持续下滑了一段时间。

Perhaps as important, prices continue to decline, and the pace has accelerated. That’s after a powerful upsurge in prices during China’s period of rapid economic growth. Falling property values undermine household confidence, particularly against a backdrop where real estate makes up a notable share of wealth.
或许同样重要的是，价格持续下降，且降幅加快。这是在中国快速经济增长期间价格强劲上涨之后。房产价值的下跌削弱了家庭信心，特别是在房地产占据显著财富份额的背景下。

The irony is, China’s property crisis was one that policymakers manufactured. It began in 2020, when regulators set limits—dubbed three red lines—for developers seeking to borrow more. The intention was in part to contain prices that were becoming increasingly unaffordable, and in part to address financial-stability risks.
讽刺的是，中国的房地产危机是政策制定者制造的。它始于 2020 年，当时监管机构为寻求借款的开发商设定了限制——被称为“三条红线”。其意图部分是为了遏制日益高昂的房价，部分是为了应对金融稳定风险。

Property companies had relied on leverage to scoop up large land banks that they would then develop. Practice was to sell housing units prior to finishing them, with the revenue paying for the construction. Once access to fresh borrowing dried up, the system broke down.
房地产公司依赖杠杆收购大量土地储备，然后进行开发。惯例是在完成之前出售住房单元，收入用于支付建设费用。一旦新的借款渠道枯竭，系统就崩溃了。

“I don’t know if the world has ever seen such a self-induced property implosion,” Stephen Jen, chief executive of Eurizon SLJ Capital, wrote in a note to clients this week. “All of the other cases of property corrections were involuntary.”
“我不知道世界上是否曾经见过如此自我引发的房地产崩溃，”Eurizon SLJ Capital 的首席执行官 Stephen Jen 在本周给客户的备忘录中写道。“所有其他房地产调整的案例都是非自愿的。”

Officials’ actions up to now have relied on local governments taking action. Measures included setting up funding mechanisms to encourage them to buy unsold properties, potentially turning some buildings into social housing—a system that’s worked well on a small scale in Singapore.
官员们迄今为止的行动依赖于地方政府采取措施。措施包括建立资金机制以鼓励他们购买未售出的物业，可能将一些建筑转变为社会住房——这一系统在新加坡的小规模运作中效果良好。

But the trouble has been local authorities remain in austerity mode, having running up debts in part to pay for a draconian Covid containment infrastructure. They’ve also seen a decline in revenue due to the property slump, after having long relied on sales of land-use rights.
但问题在于地方当局仍处于紧缩模式，部分原因是为了支付严厉的疫情防控基础设施而积累了债务。由于房地产下滑，他们的收入也出现了下降，因为他们长期以来依赖土地使用权的销售。

To top it off, the economics of participating in bailout schemes were a hard sell amid widespread expectation of further price declines. In May, China’s central government urged more than 200 cities to buy unsold homes to ease oversupply. By earlier this month, only 29 had heeded the call.
为了更进一步，参与救助计划的经济学在普遍预期价格进一步下跌的情况下很难推销。5 月份，中国中央政府敦促 200 多个城市购买未售出的房屋以缓解过剩供应。到本月初，只有 29 个城市响应了这一号召。

But once President Xi Jinping has declared something a priority, that tends to mobilize things in China’s single-party state. Xi oversaw the Communist Party Politburo meeting this week that unveiled the primacy of shoring up the economy.
但一旦习近平主席宣布某事为优先事项，这往往会在中国的单一党制国家中动员起行动。习近平本周主持了中共中央政治局会议，会议揭示了巩固经济的首要性。

“A change in the view from the very top is important. The housing market desperately needs more actions from the top to undo the self-inflicted damage,” Jen said.
“从最高层的视角变化是重要的。房地产市场迫切需要来自高层的更多行动来扭转自我造成的损害，”Jen 说。

Some developers already are jumping on the reflation bandwagon, pledging to make homebuyers whole should prices fall between contract signing and property delivery dates.
一些开发商已经开始加入通货膨胀复苏的行列，承诺在合同签署和物业交付日期之间如果价格下跌，将使购房者得到补偿。

But most economists aren’t yet rushing to rewrite their economic growth forecasts until it’s clear what sort of fiscal resources Beijing is prepared to deploy.
但大多数经济学家尚未急于修改他们的经济增长预测，直到明确北京准备投入何种财政资源。

Market speculation has centered on the potential for a 2 trillion yuan ($285 billion) injection. But one thing to keep in mind is the context of a contraction in budget spending (as noted in last week’s edition) so far this year. Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis SA, estimated China may need to unleash over 3 trillion yuan just to fill fiscal gaps.
市场投机集中在可能进行 2 万亿人民币（2850 亿美元）注入的潜力上。但需要记住的一点是，今年迄今预算支出的收缩背景（如上周的版本所提到的）。Natixis SA 首席亚太经济学家 Alicia Garcia Herrero 估计，中国可能需要释放超过 3 万亿人民币仅仅是为了填补财政缺口。

Beyond addressing China’s property crisis, there remains a policy focus on value-added manufacturing rather than the services sector that could do most to provide jobs and income.
除了应对中国的房地产危机外，政策仍然集中在增值制造业上，而不是能够提供最多就业和收入的服务行业。

The longer-term picture “still looks the same— grim,” Qu and Zhu at Bloomberg Economics wrote. “Structural forces will keep considerable downward pressure on growth.”
长期来看，“情况仍然是一样的——严峻，”彭博经济学的屈和朱写道。“结构性因素将对增长施加相当大的下行压力。”