中国央行为罕见的债券市场干预做好了准备

For weeks the People’s Bank of China has voiced concern about a bubble forming in the country’s sovereign bond market. Now it has moved from talking about the problem to arming itself for its first direct market intervention in decades.
中国人民银行几周来一直对该国主权债券市场出现泡沫表示担忧。现在，它已经从讨论问题转向为数十年来首次直接市场干预做准备。

On Friday the central bank said it had struck deals with several institutions to borrow several hundred billion renminbi of long-dated bonds that it can sell into the market to try to satisfy demand. The PBoC said it would continue to borrow and sell the bonds on an open-ended and unsecured basis.
上周五，央行表示已与多家机构达成协议，借入数千亿元人民币的长期债券，以便在市场上出售，以满足需求。央行表示将继续以无限期和无担保的方式借入并出售债券。

The moves are the strongest signal yet of the central bank’s determination to slow the rush of money into sovereign bonds, which has sent yields — which move inversely to prices — to record lows. The central bank fears that eager buyers such as regional banks may be storing up trouble if yields rebound abruptly and the value of their holdings drops, creating the potential for a crisis similar to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last year.
这些举措是央行迄今为止最强烈的信号，表明其决心减缓资金涌入主权债券市场的步伐，这已经导致收益率创纪录低位，而收益率与价格呈反比关系。央行担心，像地区银行等急于购买者如果收益率突然反弹，其持有资产价值下跌，可能会积累麻烦，从而引发类似去年硅谷银行倒闭的危机。

Already the signals have had some effect. Yields on 10-year debt, which touched an all-time low of 2.18 per cent last week, climbed above 2.5 per cent on Monday after the PBoC unveiled another tool of market intervention, this time saying it would start temporary bond repurchases or reverse repo operations to try to reduce the volatility of interbank interest rates.
信号已经产生了一些效果。上周曾触及历史最低水平 2.18%的 10 年期债券收益率，在中国人民银行公布另一项市场干预工具后，于周一上升至 2.5%以上，该工具是表示将开始临时债券回购或逆回购操作，以试图降低银行间利率的波动性。

But some analysts doubt that the central bank can push back against this demand for bonds forever, given that demand has been driven by a struggling economy mired in a property downturn in which prices are barely rising and investors see few other attractive places to put their cash amid flagging equity markets.
但一些分析师怀疑中央银行能够永远抵制对债券的需求，因为这种需求是由陷入房地产低迷的经济推动的，在这种情况下，价格几乎没有上涨，投资者在低迷的股市中看不到其他吸引人的投资去处。

“The forces pushing down long-term yields are mostly structural and we doubt that they will reverse any time soon,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, in a note published on Friday.
“长期收益率下行的力量主要是结构性的，我们怀疑它们不会很快逆转，”资本经济学中国经济主管朱利安·埃文斯-普里查德在周五发表的一份报告中表示。

The PBoC has warned repeatedly since April against the bond-buying frenzy. In mid-June PBoC governor Pan Gongsheng said yields were too low and other central bank officials also told state media that the ideal range for 10 year-government bond yields was between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent.
央行自 4 月以来多次警告债券购买狂潮。6 月中旬，央行行长潘功胜表示收益率过低，其他央行官员也告诉官方媒体，10 年期政府债券收益率的理想范围应在 2.5%至 3%之间。

The People’s Bank of China is trying to force up bond yields

For some analysts, China’s revival of bond market intervention — its last meaningful purchase was in 2007 — is sensible at a time when other instruments to influence the financial system are proving less effective. While China’s economy was growing rapidly, the PBoC was able to exert influence over banks by focusing on controlling the supply of lending. But it has had to rethink its approach as demand for credit has slowed and as banking liquidity has shifted into other assets such as bonds.
对于一些分析师来说，中国重新介入债券市场——其上一次有意义的购买是在 2007 年——在其他影响金融系统的工具效果变差的时候是明智的。在中国经济快速增长的时候，中国人民银行通过专注于控制贷款供应来对银行施加影响。但随着信贷需求放缓，银行流动性转向债券等其他资产，中国人民银行不得不重新思考其方法。

The question of whether the PBoC can manage the bond market will become even more important give that China plans to issue trillions of renminbi more in long-dated bonds in the coming years to increase central government leverage and spending. So far the PBoC only holds Rmb1.52tn in government bonds, mostly with shorter maturities.

Chen Long, co-founder of Beijing-based consultancy Plenum, said the PBoC’s approach had some similarities with the yield curve control adopted by the Bank of Japan during the past decade. But whereas the BoJ was trying to set a ceiling for yields, the PBoC is trying to create a floor.

So far though, critical details of any operation, including the timing, size, cost and frequency of the PBoC’s bond trades, are yet to be revealed.

“It’s hard to say how much firepower is needed as the PBoC needs to review the market step by step,” said Richard Xu, chief China financial analyst with Morgan Stanley. “The market is expectation-driven — sometimes a simple verbal warning can change the course, but in other scenarios it needs to take firmer actions.”

The central bank was “unlikely to go all in”, said Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis. “It is more of a policy signal unless the intervention is massive, as the goal is to smoothen volatility rather than [change] the market trend.”

Ng estimated that the PBoC would probably need to purchase at least 5 per cent of outstanding government bonds — which would still be less forceful than the BoJ’s interventions — to make a significant difference. China’s government bond market is worth Rmb30tn.

Chen from Plenum also pointed out that a key element of Japan’s yield control was the BoJ promise to buy an unlimited amount of bonds.

“If the PBoC is serious about setting a floor [for yields], it must also promise to sell an unlimited amount of government bonds at that level. It is still unclear if [it] is willing to go that far or what its exit strategy would be.”

Experts caution that pushing up yields will be difficult in China’s current deflationary environment. New loan growth has slowed more than expected this year. Official data on “total social financing”, a broad gauge of credit growth, showed a rare contraction in April, its first decline since 2017, while new data released in June showed a weaker than expected rebound in May.

A further complication is a tug of war between the PBoC and the finance ministry, for which lower yields mean it can issue bonds at a lower cost, said a finance industry researcher at a state think-tank.

The researcher said if the finance ministry had accelerated bond issuance in the first half of 2024 to ease demand pressure, the central bank would not have needed to send so many verbal warnings.

Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in his note that even if the PBoC did succeed in influencing long-term yields, the direct impact on the economy would be marginal given that long-term rates had limited impact on corporate and household borrowing.

“For now, the PBoC has retained a dovish tilt in its policy statements,” he said. “What happens to policy rates and yields at the short end of the curve will remain more important for the economic outlook.”