Bitcoin Is Dying As Designed: Unprofitable Mining May End It比特幣正在如期消亡：無利可圖的挖礦可能會結束它

Imagine getting something for free, something everyone around you considered worthless. That’s exactly what happened to me back in 2009, when I was handed some Bitcoin at a conference. At the time, it was little more than a digital curiosity, good for nothing but trading among enthusiasts. I didn’t think much of it, but I held onto a bit.
想像一下免費獲得一些東西，你周圍的每個人都認為一文不值的東西。這正是 2009 年發生在我身上的事情，當時我在一次會議上收到了一些比特幣。當時，它只不過是一種數位好奇心，除了在愛好者之間進行交易外，一無是處。我沒有多想，但我還是堅持了一下。

Has the death come for the Bitcoin network already?
比特幣網路已經死亡了嗎？

Then, something shifted. When Bitcoin surged past the $500 mark, my casual interest morphed into serious intrigue. For years after, I found myself in countless discussions, all centered on one burning question: how could we actually use this thing in the real world?
然後，事情發生了變化。當比特幣飆升超過 500 美元大關時，我隨便的興趣變成了嚴重的陰謀。在之後的幾年裡，我發現自己參與了無數次討論，都集中在一個緊迫的問題上：我們如何在現實世界中真正使用這個東西？

By 2013, as Bitcoin began its meteoric rise, I felt compelled to truly understand its inner workings. For me, that meant diving deep into its core — the actual source code of the Bitcoin nodes, or Bitcoin Core as it’s known today. Bitcoin has always been shrouded in myths, some so outlandish that a quick look at the code instantly debunks them.
到 2013 年，隨著比特幣開始迅速崛起，我覺得有必要真正瞭解它的內部運作方式。對我來說，這意味著深入研究它的核心——比特幣節點的實際原始程式碼，或者今天所知道的比特幣核心 。比特幣一直籠罩在神話中，有些神話是如此古怪，以至於快速瀏覽代碼即可立即揭穿它們。

While I’ve always been, and remain, deeply invested in Bitcoin — committed to it until the very end — my skepticism about its future has grown steadily over the years. Today, I’m more doubtful than ever. Let me tell you why.
雖然我一直並且仍然對比特幣進行深度投資——致力於它直到最後——但多年來 ，我對它未來的懷疑一直在穩步增長 。今天，我比以往任何時候都更加懷疑。讓我告訴你為什麼。

BTC to USD exchange rate over the past 10 years
過去 10 年的 BTC 到 USD 匯率

Excessive SHA-256 hash calculations
過多的 SHA-256 哈希計算

As I graduated in software engineering and my final papers were around cryptography, I do have a little more than the basic understanding of it. In very simple terms, Bitcoin “miners” approve transactions by calculating a SHA-256 hash of a candidate block header that, when combined with the transactions included in that block and the hash of the previous block, meets a specific difficulty target. This process is often referred to as “Proof of Work”. The difficulty target is adjusted by the protocol handling itself.
由於我畢業於軟體工程專業，我的期末論文是關於密碼學的，所以我對它的理解確實比基本要多一點。 簡單來說，比特幣「礦工」通過計算候選區塊頭的 SHA-256 哈希值來批准交易 ，當與該區塊中包含的交易和前一個區塊的哈希值相結合時，該哈希值滿足特定的難度目標。此過程通常稱為「工作量證明」。。 難度目標由協議處理本身調整。

• If the actual time taken was less than 10 minutes per block on average, the algorithm automatically increases the difficulty for the next 2,016 blocks
  如果每個區塊實際花費的平均時間少於 10 分鐘 ，則演算法會自動增加接下來 2,016 個區塊的難度
• If the actual time taken was more than 10 minutes per block on average, the algorithm automatically decreases the difficulty for the next 2,016 blocks.
  如果每個區塊實際花費的平均時間超過 10 分鐘 ，則演算法會自動降低接下來 2016 個區塊的難度。

The following pseudocode outlines how the validation of Bitcoin blocks is performed using the SHA-256 hash algorithm, and how the difficulty level plays a vital role in the algorithm.
以下偽代碼概述了如何使用 SHA-256 哈希演算法執行比特幣區塊驗證，以及難度級別如何在演算法中發揮至關重要的作用。

FUNCTION ValidateBitcoinBlock(block):
    // 1. Extract block header components
    previous_block_hash = block.header.previous_block_hash
    merkle_root = block.header.merkle_root
    timestamp = block.header.timestamp

    // Stored as a compact representation
    difficulty_target_bits = block.header.difficulty_target_bits

    nonce = block.header.nonce
    version = block.header.version

    // 2. Reconstruct the target hash from difficulty_target_bits
    // This involves converting the compact representation into 
    // a 256-bit number. For simplicity, let's assume we have a 
    // function for this.
    target_hash = ConvertDifficultyBitsToTargetHash(difficulty_target_bits)

    // 3. Prepare the block header for hashing
    // Bitcoin hashes the entire block header (80 bytes).
    // The order of concatenation matters and is fixed.
    header_bytes = Concatenate(version, previous_block_hash, 
                                merkle_root, timestamp, 
                                difficulty_target_bits, nonce)

    // 4. Perform SHA256 double hash on the block header
    // This is the core Proof-of-Work calculation.
    hash_result = SHA256(SHA256(header_bytes))

    // 5. Compare the hash result with the target hash
    IF hash_result <= target_hash THEN
        // Proof-of-Work is valid.
        // Additional validation steps would follow here, such as:
        // - Verify previous_block_hash matches the chain's last block
        // - Validate all transactions within the block
        // - Verify Merkle root matches the transactions
        // - Check timestamp validity (not too far in future/past)
        // - Ensure block size is within limits
        // If all other validations pass:
        RETURN TRUE
    ELSE
        // Proof-of-Work is invalid.
        RETURN FALSE

FUNCTION SHA256(input_data):
    // This represents the cryptographic SHA256 hash function.
    // It takes any binary data and returns a 256-bit hash.
    // (Implementation details of SHA256 are complex and omitted here)
    RETURN calculated_256_bit_hash

FUNCTION ConvertDifficultyBitsToTargetHash(difficulty_bits):
    // This function converts the compact 'difficulty_bits' representation
    // into the actual 256-bit target hash.
    // The format is typically: first byte is exponent, next three bytes 
    // are mantissa.

    // For example, if difficulty_bits is 0x1d00ffff, 
    // it represents 0x00ffff * 2^(8 * (0x1d - 3))
    // (Actual implementation involves bit shifts and conversions)
    RETURN 256_bit_target_hash

With using the average time for validation as the ground for determining the difficulty level, the network introduces the Matthew effect. It is commonly referred to as “Richer get richer, poorer get poorer”. With modern hardware like ASIC miners, the average Joe was slowly pushed out of the mining process. Today, mining with anything other than a hardware miner like an ASIC miner has become impossible.
通過使用驗證的平均時間作為確定難度級別的依據，該網路引入了 Matthew 效應 。它通常被稱為 “越富越富，越窮越窮”。 借助 ASIC 礦機等現代硬體，普通的 Joe 逐漸被擠出挖礦過程。今天，除了 ASIC 礦機等硬體礦機之外，使用任何其他設備進行挖礦已經變得不可能。

Mining monopolies reached 51%
採礦壟斷率達到 51%

A network isn’t decentralized just because someone claims it is. For true decentralization, no single person, entity, or organization should control 51% of the network. This applies to both the node operators and the hardware manufacturers.
網路不是僅僅因為有人聲稱它是去中心化的。為了實現真正的去中心化，任何個人、實體或組織都不應控制 51% 的網路。這適用於節點運營商和硬體製造商。

A mining farm with Bitmain Antminers
擁有 Bitmain Antminers 的礦場

A network loses its decentralized nature if a single entity or group controls either 51% of its nodes or 51% of the node hardware, such as ASIC miners. Currently, a staggering 99% of ASIC miners are produced by three Chinese companies: Bitmain, MicroBT, and Canaan, all operating within China.
如果單個實體或組控制其 51%的節點或 51%的節點硬體（例如 ASIC 礦工），則網路將失去其去中心化性質。目前，令人震驚的是，99% 的 ASIC 礦機由三家中國公司生產 ：比特大陸、比特微和嘉楠耘智，它們都在中國境內運營。

Bitmain’s website promoting their miners
Bitmain 的網站推廣他們的礦工

Regardless of your opinion, by the very definition of a decentralized network, Bitcoin no longer fits the description. It’s now effectively controlled by three Chinese companies that hold a 99% monopoly over mining. In essence, ASIC miner manufacturers dictate the Bitcoin network’s operations today.
無論您的看法如何，根據去中心化網路的定義，比特幣不再符合描述。它現在由三家中國公司有效控制，這些公司壟斷了採礦業 99%。從本質上講，ASIC 礦工製造商決定了當今比特幣網路的運營。

While the Bitcoin community continues to debate who runs the majority of the nodes, that discussion has become moot. Bitcoin’s core issue isn’t who operates the nodes, but rather who manufactures the mining hardware. China could easily seize control of the entire network by restricting the supply of ASIC miners, preventing the export of the most efficient ones, or simply by dictating how the miners function.
雖然比特幣社區仍在爭論誰運行著大多數節點，但這種討論已經變得沒有意義。比特幣的核心問題不是誰誰作節點，而是誰製造挖礦硬體。中國可以通過限制 ASIC 礦機的供應、阻止出口最高效的礦機，或者簡單地通過規定礦機的運作方式，輕鬆奪取對整個網路的控制權。

The Bitcoin Mining Map gives the false impression that the United States still have some control
比特幣挖礦地圖給人一種美國仍然有一定控制權的錯誤印象

This wasn’t an issue back when anyone, even with an old laptop, could mine Bitcoin. This problem was actually debated as early as 2010 and was even declared a “red line” and the “death of the network.” We crossed that “red line” years ago.
這在當時不是問題，因為任何人都可以挖掘比特幣，即使是使用舊筆記型電腦。這個問題其實早在 2010 年就被爭論過了，甚至被宣佈為「紅線」和「網路之死」。。幾年前我們就越過了那條「紅線」。。

The missing kWh/USD calculation
缺失的 kWh/USD 計算

The rise of ASIC miners and mining farms has pushed out individual miners and driven up the mining difficulty to unprecedented levels. These operations consume enormous amounts of energy, leading to substantial costs — a persistent issue for Bitcoin and blockchain technology.
ASIC 礦工和礦場的興起將個體礦工排擠，並將挖礦難度推高到前所未有的水準。這些作消耗大量能源，導致大量成本——這是比特幣和區塊鏈技術的一個長期問題。

While the value of your fiat currency might be indirectly affected by energy prices, its fundamental use isn’t. You can still use cash, coins, and paper bills even during a power outage. Bitcoin, however, is entirely dependent on energy and communication networks. This means the higher global energy costs climb, the more expensive it becomes to operate Bitcoin.
雖然法定貨幣的價值可能會受到能源價格的間接影響，但其基本用途卻不會。即使在停電期間，您仍然可以使用現金、硬幣和紙質帳單。 然而，比特幣完全依賴於能源和通信網路。這意味著全球能源成本攀升越高，運營比特幣的成本就越高。

“Bitcoin mining center causing noise complaints” (2021) — WATE 6 News, Knoxville, Tennessee
“比特幣挖礦中心引起噪音投訴”（2021 年）— WATE 6 News，田納西州諾克斯維爾

The energy problem exists since the very early days, it’s not new and everyone knew it was coming. The design of Bitcoin never seriously took energy prices into consideration. In order for Bitcoin mining to work profitably today, you need to look at kWh/USD. Mining Bitcoin essentially means exchanging energy for currency. You buy energy at a specific cost and receive Bitcoin in return. Hence, you need to calculate how many U.S. dollars you are making per kWh and what your kWh costs.
能源問題從很早就存在了，它並不新鮮，每個人都知道它即將到來。 比特幣的設計從未認真考慮過能源價格 。為了讓比特幣挖礦在今天有利可圖，您需要關注 kWh/USD。開採比特幣本質上意味著將能源兌換成貨幣。您以特定成本購買能源並獲得比特幣作為回報。因此，您需要計算您每千瓦時賺了多少美元以及您的千瓦時成本是多少。

USD per kWh of mined Bitcoin over the years
多年來每千瓦時開採的比特幣的美元

You can question my analysis and the kWh/BTC needed or the BTC/USD exchange fees, even as I already used the High values. What you can not deny is that the USD/kWh return is in constant decline. Even if Bitcoin would skyrocket again, going well above $500K/BTC, the USD/kWh profit may still only be $0,09 if immediately exchanged for USD. The mining business model currently only works with continuously rising Bitcoin exchange rates, and miners accepting a delayed profit over a period of several years.
您可以質疑我的分析和所需的 kWh/BTC 或 BTC/USD 交易費用，即使我已經使用了高值。你不能否認的是，美元/千瓦時的回報率一直在下降。即使比特幣再次飆升，遠高於 500K/BTC，如果立即兌換成美元，USD/kWh 的利潤可能仍然只有 0,09 美元。挖礦商業模式目前僅適用於不斷上漲的比特幣匯率，以及礦工接受幾年內延遲的利潤。

Declining profitability of the miners
礦工的盈利能力下降

Here’s one thing for sure: Bitcoin is being mined too quickly and consumes an excessive amount of energy. While you used to just fire up your computer’s CPU to mine, today’s mining involves significant investment risks. My own calculations, along with those from other analysts, clearly indicate that Bitcoin mining is steadily becoming less profitable. In fact, it’s already unprofitable for many miners using older hardware.
有一點是肯定的：比特幣開採得太快了，消耗了過多的能源。雖然您過去只是啟動計算機的 CPU 進行挖礦，但今天的挖礦涉及重大的投資風險。 我自己的計算以及其他分析師的計算清楚地表明，比特幣挖礦的利潤正在穩步下降。事實上，對於許多使用舊硬體的礦工來說，它已經無利可圖。

Bitcoin Mining profitability by BitInfoCharts
BitInfoCharts 的比特幣挖礦盈利能力

Even with substantial investments and industrial energy prices as low as $0.08/kWh, the most advanced ASIC miners today achieve lower profitability than an individual miner in their basement did 15 years ago. Back then, if John Doe wanted to stop, he’d just turn off his machine with no investment lost. Today, it’s a completely different story. Becoming a miner now demands investments exceeding $50,000, dedicated facilities, and meticulous energy planning.
即使進行了大量投資和低至 0.08 美元/kWh 的工業能源價格，今天最先進的 ASIC 礦工的盈利能力也低於 15 年前地下室中的單個礦工。 那時，如果 John Doe 想停下來，他只需關掉他的機器，而不會損失任何投資。今天，情況完全不同。現在成為一名礦工需要超過 50,000 美元的投資、專用設施和細緻的能源規劃。

Mining profitability with an average miner and the average U.S. household cost of $0.17/kWh
採礦業的盈利能力，平均礦工人數為 0.17 美元/kWh 的美國家庭成本

Once the last Bitcoin is mined, miners will rely solely on transaction fees, which currently make up less than 1% of the total transaction volume. If mining continues at its present pace, most miners face substantial losses. This situation makes Bitcoin mining appear strikingly similar to a pyramid scheme, where miners are seemingly banking on the BTC/USD exchange rate soaring past $1 million per Bitcoin to turn a profit.
一旦最後一個比特幣被開採出來，礦工將完全依賴交易費用，目前該費用佔總交易量的不到 1%。如果採礦繼續以目前的速度進行，大多數礦工將面臨重大損失。這種情況使比特幣挖礦看起來與金字塔計劃驚人地相似，在金字塔計劃中，礦工似乎寄希望於比特幣/美元匯率飆升至100萬美元以上來獲利。

When Bitcoin’s rapid, “hockey stick” growth inevitably slows, miners will face significant problems. It’s fair to say that, right now, Bitcoin appears to be hurtling towards a crisis, and a bubble burst is a distinct possibility. None of this should come as a surprise; it’s how the system is designed. What it isn’t designed for, however, are irrational Bitcoin miners and an imbalanced mining landscape.
當比特幣的快速「曲棍球棒」增長不可避免地放緩時，礦工將面臨重大問題。公平地說，目前，比特幣似乎正在衝向一場危機，泡沫破裂的可能性很大。這一切都不足為奇;而是系統的設計方式。然而，它的設計目的並不是為了非理性的比特幣礦工和不平衡的挖礦環境。

Non-existent commercial adoption
不存在商業收養

Many Bitcoin startups emerged, anticipating widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a payment method. However, this adoption never materialized, a fact many people recognized but chose to ignore. The slow transaction processing times, ranging from over 30 seconds to an hour, were impractical for most e-commerce applications. Yet, the community clung to the hope that faster mining hardware would solve the problem.
許多比特幣初創公司湧現，預計比特幣將被廣泛採用作為一種支付方式。然而，這種收養從未實現，許多人認識到了這一事實，但選擇忽視。緩慢的交易處理時間（從 30 秒到一個小時不等）對於大多數電子商務應用程式來說是不切實際的。然而，社區仍然希望更快的挖礦硬體能夠解決這個問題。

BitPay bypassing long transaction times by using gift cards
BitPay 通過使用禮品卡繞過較長的交易時間

It isn’t a technical hurdle preventing Bitcoin’s widespread use; in fact, integrating Bitcoin payments is far simpler than traditional methods, involving fewer complications and parties. Despite this ease, you still can’t use Bitcoin for your everyday grocery shopping. A cashier simply can’t wait 42 minutes for your transaction to confirm while you’re bagging your items.
這並不是阻止比特幣廣泛使用的技術障礙;事實上，集成比特幣支付比傳統方法簡單得多，涉及的複雜性和各方更少。 儘管這很容易，但您仍然不能將比特幣用於日常雜貨店購物。 收銀員根本無法等待 42 分鐘在您裝袋時確認您的交易。

For merchants needing quick transactions, gift cards have become a workaround, though they’re far from a real solution. Since Bitcoin payments are rarely accepted outside of illicit services, many now view Bitcoin more as an asset akin to gold. This shift was once considered a possible sign of Bitcoin’s impending demise, long before it appeared.
對於需要快速交易的商家來說，禮品卡已成為一種解決方法，儘管它們遠非真正的解決方案。 由於在非法服務之外很少接受比特幣支付， 因此許多人現在更多地將比特幣視為類似於黃金的資產。這種轉變曾被認為是比特幣即將消亡的可能跡象，早在它出現之前。

Conclusion  結論

I could go on for pages about other issues, like governments holding billions in confiscated Bitcoins or billions potentially lost in destroyed wallets, each presenting its own set of problems for the system.
我可以繼續閱讀有關其他問題的頁面，例如政府持有數十億被沒收的比特幣或可能在被銷毀的錢包中丟失數十億的比特幣，每個問題都會給系統帶來自己的一系列問題。

Exchanging Bitcoin for traditional currency has also become highly regulated. You can’t just anonymously swap your BTC for US dollars or Euros anymore; exchanges now demand a full Know-Your-Customer (KYC) process, requiring your ID, address, and bank details just to withdraw funds. Every Bitcoin ATM I’ve seen only lets you buy BTC, not sell it. It’s almost as if Bitcoin has forgotten how to be a currency.
將比特幣兌換成傳統貨幣也受到高度監管。您不能再只是匿名將您的 BTC 兌換成美元或歐元;交易所現在要求完整的瞭解您的客戶 （KYC） 流程，只需要您的 ID、地址和銀行詳細資訊才能提取資金。我見過的每台比特幣 ATM 都只允許您購買 BTC，而不是出售它。就好像比特幣已經忘記了如何成為一種貨幣。

Today, Bitcoin is built and programmed by centralized ASIC miners and deployed in a decentralized manner, yet it teeters on the edge of profitability. Nobody wants to hear this, and believe me, I don’t like saying it, but Bitcoin, in its original intent, is effectively dead.
今天，比特幣是由中心化 ASIC 礦工構建和程式設計的，並以去中心化的方式部署，但它在盈利能力的邊緣徘徊。沒有人想聽到這些，相信我，我不喜歡這麼說，但比特幣，就其初衷而言，實際上已經死了。

Thank you for reading. Jan
感謝您的閱讀。1月

All my articles are handicraft, handwritten by me. By reading and sharing my articles, you support my work and you support real human authorship.
我所有的文章都是我手寫的手工藝品。 通過閱讀和分享我的文章，您支援我的工作，也支援真正的人類作者身份。

I’m a software business owner from Germany, worked in various CTO roles, an active programmer in C++, Go, Swift and passionate technology enthusiast. My programming career started at a young age and I later acquired a professional institutional education in software engineering. My journey on Medium started out as note taking and documenting my projects. Over time, it became more and more popular with you, my beloved readers. Not because I am someone special, but because people crave for thoroughly researched technical articles. Following me, clapping and subscribing is one step forward in keeping technical writing and its community alive.
我是一名來自德國的軟體企業主，擔任過各種 CTO 職務，是 C++、Go、Swift 的活躍程式師，也是熱情的技術愛好者。我的程式設計生涯從很小的時候就開始了，後來我獲得了軟體工程的專業機構教育。我在 Medium 上的旅程始於記筆記和記錄我的專案。隨著時間的推移，它越來越受到您，我心愛的讀者的歡迎。不是因為我是一個特別的人，而是因為人們渴望獲得經過深入研究的技術文章。跟著我，鼓掌和訂閱是保持技術寫作及其社區活力的一步。