China is one of Tesla's largest markets. Given recent media reports of Tesla securing regulatory backing to deploy supervised Full Self Driving (FSD) in China, we offer a handful of initial thoughts and what we believe will be key items to monitor. Specifically:
中国是特斯拉最大的市场之一。鉴于最近媒体报道特斯拉获得监管支持在中国部署监督全自动驾驶（FSD），我们提供了一些初步想法和我们认为需要监测的关键问题。具体来说：
We estimate that China makes up 30-35% of Tesla's vehicle delivery volumes and 25-35% of Tesla's 5.5-6 mn total vehicles on the road globally.
我们估计中国占特斯拉车辆交付量的 30-35%，占全球特斯拉 5.5-6 百万辆车辆总量的 25-35%。
Tesla has historically focused its FSD R&D on North America. While we believe a lot of the engineering that Tesla has done would be applicable globally, we believe the company would need local enhancements for the product. Importantly, Tesla will also need to navigate government rules on data access, localization, and AI which could complicate technology sharing within/outside of China.
特斯拉在历史上主要将其 FSD 研发重点放在北美。虽然我们认为特斯拉所做的大部分工程都适用于全球，但我们认为公司需要为产品进行本地化改进。重要的是，特斯拉还需要应对政府关于数据访问、本地化和人工智能的规定，这可能会使技术在中国境内/境外的共享变得更加复杂。
We believe the extent and pace that Tesla can iterate and improve on the FSD product would determine how much it affects Tesla's business in China, including selling FSD directly, being a feature to stimulate more auto sales, or the probability of licensing FSD. While we believe FSD is not yet an eyes-off/unsupervised product, and we think this will take time, Tesla's use of end to end neural nets could allow it to develop the product faster than our base case view. We also believe that the ADAS and autonomy markets are competitive in China both with in-house/merchant ADAS systems and AVs already deployed in several cities.
我们认为特斯拉能够对 FSD 产品进行多大程度和速度的迭代和改进，将决定其对特斯拉在中国业务的影响程度，包括直接销售 FSD、作为刺激更多汽车销售的功能，或者授权 FSD 的概率。虽然我们认为 FSD 目前还不是一种无需监督的产品，我们认为这需要时间，但特斯拉使用端到端神经网络可能使其比我们的基本情况看法更快地开发产品。我们还相信，在中国，ADAS 和自动驾驶市场竞争激烈，既有内部/商用 ADAS 系统，也有 AV 已经部署在几个城市。
We show sensitivity analysis for the FSD business in China using the current number of vehicles on the road (we believe ~1.6-1.8 mn based on historical shipment volumes per IHS and CPCA) in Exhibit 1, and the opportunity from up-front licensing assuming annual volumes of ~600K (similar to 2023A/2024E) in Exhibit 2. While these help size what the business opportunity could be with present volumes, the 2030 global FSD scenario analysis we previous published (Initial framing of robotaxi opportunity, and updated FSD scenarios and Contextualizing Tesla's AI and FSD opportunities) already assumed Tesla was addressing most or all of its global car parc (although progress in China makes it more likely Tesla will better execute on this, all else equal). Note that we updated the FSD revenue opportunity for licensing to reflect the reduction in the up-front license price to $8K from $12K that Tesla made on 4/20/2024.
我们展示了对中国 FSD 业务的敏感性分析，使用道路上当前车辆数量（我们认为基于 IHS 和 CPCA 的历史出货量约为 1.6-1.8 百万）在陈列 1 中，并展示了从前期许可证中获得的机会，假设年销量约为 60 万辆（类似于 2023A/2024E）在陈列 2 中。虽然这些有助于确定当前销量下业务机会可能是什么，但我们之前发布的 2030 年全球 FSD 情景分析（机器出租车机会的初步框架，以及更新的 FSD 情景和对特斯拉人工智能和 FSD 机会的情境化）已经假设特斯拉正在解决其全球汽车园地的大部分或全部问题（尽管中国的进展使特斯拉更有可能在这方面执行得更好，其他条件相等）。请注意，我们已更新 FSD 许可证收入机会，以反映特斯拉在 2024 年 4 月 20 日将前期许可证价格从 12,000 美元降至 8,000 美元的情况。
We believe that our $175, 12-month price target (based on 50X Q5-Q8 EPS including SBC) gives Tesla future credit for growing in high margin areas such as FSD (with software growing from a few billion per year currently to tens of billions by 2030). While we consider the China news a directional positive, increased FSD/software revenue in the long-term was already a part of our valuation approach to the stock.
我们相信，我们的 175 美元，为期 12 个月的价格目标（基于 50 倍 Q5-Q8 EPS，包括 SBC）为特斯拉未来在高利润领域增长（如 FSD，软件从目前每年几十亿美元增长到 2030 年数千亿美元）给予了信用。虽然我们认为中国的消息是一个指导性的积极因素，但长期内增加的 FSD/软件收入已经是我们对该股票的估值方法的一部分。
We believe an upside scenario for the stock over the next 12-24 months could be ~$220-$300 using a multiple of 50X-60X applied to 2026E EPS (note we model 2026 EPS including SBC of $4.45 and excluding SBC of $5.00), and the market could be more forward looking/ascribe a higher multiple should Tesla demonstrate improved traction with software and services products such as FSD. We believe a downside scenario, including if investors become less optimistic on the software and services opportunity, could be ~$65-$85 using a multiple of ~30X applied to 2024 EPS (note that we model 2024E EPS including SBC at $2.20 and excluding SBC at $2.70).
我们认为，未来 12-24 个月内该股票的上行情景可能是 220 美元至 300 美元之间，采用 50 倍至 60 倍的倍数应用于 2026 年的 EPS（请注意，我们模拟 2026 年的 EPS，包括 SBC 为 4.45 美元，不包括 SBC 为 5.00 美元），市场可能更具前瞻性/赋予更高的倍数，如果特斯拉展示出对软件和服务产品（如 FSD）的改进有更好的表现。我们认为下行情景，包括如果投资者对软件和服务机会变得不那么乐观，可能是 65 美元至 85 美元之间，采用 30 倍左右的倍数应用于 2024 年的 EPS（请注意，我们模拟 2024 年的 EPS，包括 SBC 为 2.20 美元，不包括 SBC 为 2.70 美元）。
We are Neutral rated on Tesla shares. Key downside risks to our view relate to potentially larger vehicle price reductions than we expect, increased competition in EVs, slower EV demand, delays with products/capabilities like FSD/4680, key person risk, the internal control environment, margins, and operational risks associated with Tesla's high degree of vertical integration. Upside risks include faster EV adoption and/or share gain by Tesla, a stronger macroeconomic environment for new vehicle sales more generally, earlier new product launches than we expect, and an earlier/larger impact from AI enabled products (e.g., FSD, Optimus and robotaxis) than we currently anticipate.
我们对特斯拉股票持中性评级。我们观点的主要下行风险包括可能出现比我们预期更大的车辆价格降低、电动汽车领域竞争加剧、电动汽车需求增长放缓、产品/能力（如 FSD/4680）推迟、关键人员风险、内部控制环境、利润率以及特斯拉高度垂直整合所带来的运营风险。上行风险包括电动汽车采用速度加快和/或特斯拉市占率提高、新车销售宏观经济环境更加有利、新产品推出比我们预期更早、以及 AI 产品（如 FSD、Optimus 和机器人出租车）的影响比我们目前预期的更早/更大。
| TSLA | 12m Price Target: $175.00 12 个月价格目标：$175.00 | Price: $194.05 价格：$194.05 | Downside: 9.8% 下行风险：9.8% |
| Market cap: $676.1bn 市值：676.1 亿美元 |
| Enterprise value: $662.3bn 企业价值：662.3 亿美元 |
| 3m ADTV: $18.4bn 3 个月平均日成交量：18.4 亿美元 |
| United States 美国 |
| Americas Autos & Industrial Tech 美洲汽车与工业技术 |
| M&A Rank: 3 |
| 12/23 | 12/24E | 12/25E | 12/26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($ mn) 收入（百万美元） | 96,773.0 | 102,068.0 | 122,166.4 | 143,027.2 |
| EBITDA ($ mn) 恶性肿瘤（百万美元） | 16,633.0 | 17,180.7 | 23,907.0 | 31,308.3 |
| EBIT ($ mn) | 8,891.0 | 8,428.9 | 12,644.8 | 17,856.5 |
| EPS ($) | 2.60 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 4.45 |
| P/E (X) | 83.5 | 88.3 | 59.8 | 43.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (X) EV/EBITDA（X） | 40.6 | 35.3 | 25.1 | 18.9 |
| FCF yield (%) FCF 收益率（%） | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Dividend yield (%) 股息收益率（%） | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt/EBITDA (X) 净债务/EBITDA（X） | (0.9) | (0.8) | (1.0) | (1.1) |
| 3/24 | 6/24E | 9/24E | 12/24E | |
| EPS ($) | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| 12/23 | 12/24E | 12/25E | 12/26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 83.5 | 88.3 | 59.8 | 43.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (X) EV/EBITDA（X） | 40.6 | 35.3 | 25.1 | 18.9 |
| EV/sales (X) | 7.0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| FCF yield (%) FCF 收益率（%） | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| EV/DACF (X) | 46.2 | 44.4 | 31.4 | 23.5 |
| CROCI (%) | 33.2 | 22.4 | 25.7 | 28.9 |
| ROE (%) | 16.9 | 11.4 | 14.5 | 16.7 |
| Net debt/EBITDA (X) 净债务/EBITDA（X） | (0.9) | (0.8) | (1.0) | (1.1) |
| Net debt/equity (%) 净债务/股权(%) | (22.5) | (18.8) | (27.0) | (33.9) |
| Interest cover (X) 利息保障（X） | 57.0 | 32.9 | 52.7 | 74.4 |
| Inventory days 存货周转天数 | 61.1 | 65.2 | 61.9 | 63.8 |
| Receivable days 应收账款周转天数 | 12.2 | 15.3 | 16.1 | 15.5 |
| Days payable outstanding 应付账款周转天数 | 68.5 | 67.0 | 61.2 | 57.4 |
| 12/23 | 12/24E | 12/25E | 12/26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth 总收入增长 | 18.8 | 5.5 | 19.7 | 17.1 |
| EBITDA growth EBITDA 增长 | (22.1) | 1.7 | 44.9 | 35.8 |
| EPS growth | (28.2) | (15.6) | 47.7 | 37.1 |
| DPS growth | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| Gross margin | 18.2 | 17.8 | 18.1 | 19.3 |
| EBIT margin | 9.2 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| 12/23 | 12/24E | 12/25E | 12/26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue 总收入 | 96,773.0 | 102,068.0 | 122,166.4 | 143,027.2 |
| Cost of goods sold 销售成本 | (79,113.0) | (83,939.2) | (100,041.5) | (115,485.1) |
| SG&A | (4,800.0) | (5,115.4) | (4,933.1) | (5,013.4) |
| R&D | (3,969.0) | (4,584.4) | (4,547.0) | (4,672.3) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) 其他营业收入／（支出） | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| EBITDA | 13,558.0 | 13,793.7 | 19,982.0 | 27,128.3 |
| Depreciation & amortization 折旧与摊销费用 | (4,667.0) | (5,364.8) | (7,337.2) | (9,271.7) |
| EBIT | 8,891.0 | 8,428.9 | 12,644.8 | 17,856.5 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) 净利息收入/(支出) | 910.0 | 1,309.0 | 1,810.0 | 2,060.0 |
| Income/(loss) from associates 联营企业收入/(损失) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax profit 税前利润 | 9,975.0 | 9,887.9 | 14,454.8 | 19,916.5 |
| Provision for taxes 税收准备 | (926.0) | (2,112.7) | (2,891.0) | (3,983.3) |
| Minority interest 少数股权 | 23.0 | (75.0) | (75.0) | (90.0) |
| Preferred dividends 优先股股利 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Net inc. (pre-exceptionals) 净收入（除非特殊项目前） | 9,072.0 | 7,700.2 | 11,488.8 | 15,843.2 |
| Net inc. (post-exceptionals) 净收入（除非特殊项目后） | 9,072.0 | 7,700.2 | 11,488.8 | 15,843.2 |
| EPS (basic, pre-except) ($) 每股收益（基本，除非特殊项目前）（美元） | 2.86 | 2.41 | 3.57 | 4.90 |
| EPS (diluted, pre-except) ($) 每股收益（摊薄，除前）（$） | 2.60 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 4.45 |
| EPS (ex-ESO exp., dil.) ($) 每股收益（扣除 ESO 支出，摊薄）（$） | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| DPS ($) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Div. payout ratio (%) 股息支付比率（%） | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Wtd avg shares out. (basic) (mn) 加权平均已发行股份（基本）（百万） | 3,173.5 | 3,194.5 | 3,214.8 | 3,234.8 |
| Wtd avg shares out. (diluted) (mn) 加权平均已发行股份（稀释）（百万） | 3,482.8 | 3,502.2 | 3,538.0 | 3,559.8 |
| 12/23 | 12/24E | 12/25E | 12/26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & cash equivalents 现金和现金等价物 | 17,189.0 | 16,635.7 | 26,236.8 | 38,304.7 |
| Accounts receivable 应收账款 | 3,508.0 | 5,036.3 | 5,729.3 | 6,381.6 |
| Inventory | 13,626.0 | 16,368.0 | 17,570.0 | 22,791.6 |
| Other current assets 其他流动资产 | 15,541.0 | 18,151.0 | 18,151.0 | 18,151.0 |
| Total current assets 总流动资产 | 49,864.0 | 56,191.0 | 67,687.1 | 85,629.0 |
| Net PP&E | 33,905.0 | 39,638.2 | 42,380.9 | 44,189.2 |
| Net intangibles 净无形资产 | 431.0 | 367.0 | 287.0 | 207.0 |
| Total investments 总投资 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other long-term assets 其他长期资产 | 22,666.0 | 22,790.0 | 22,890.0 | 22,990.0 |
| Total assets | 106,618.0 | 118,738.2 | 132,997.0 | 152,767.2 |
| Accounts payable 应付账款 | 14,431.0 | 16,368.0 | 17,188.0 | 19,144.9 |
| Short-term debt 短期债务 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Current lease liabilities 当前租赁负债 | 2,373.0 | 2,461.0 | 2,461.0 | 2,461.0 |
| Other current liabilities 其他流动负债 | 11,944.0 | 12,267.0 | 12,267.0 | 12,267.0 |
| Total current liabilities 总流动负债 | 28,748.0 | 31,096.0 | 31,916.0 | 33,872.9 |
| Long-term debt 长期负债 | 2,857.0 | 2,899.0 | 2,899.0 | 2,899.0 |
| Non-current lease liabilities 非流动租赁负债 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other long-term liabilities 其他长期负债 | 11,404.0 | 11,694.0 | 11,694.0 | 11,694.0 |
| Total long-term liabilities 总长期负债 | 14,261.0 | 14,593.0 | 14,593.0 | 14,593.0 |
| Total liabilities 总负债 | 43,009.0 | 45,689.0 | 46,509.0 | 48,465.9 |
| Preferred shares 优先股 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Total common equity 总普通股权益 | 62,634.0 | 72,247.2 | 85,686.0 | 103,499.2 |
| Minority interest 少数股权 | 975.0 | 802.0 | 802.0 | 802.0 |
| Total liabilities & equity 总负债和股东权益 | 106,618.0 | 118,738.2 | 132,997.0 | 152,767.2 |
| BVPS ($) | 17.98 | 20.63 | 24.22 | 29.07 |
| 12/23 | 12/24E | 12/25E | 12/26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 14,974.0 | 7,658.2 | 11,488.8 | 15,843.2 |
| D&A add-back | 4,667.0 | 5,364.8 | 7,337.2 | 9,271.7 |
| Minority interest add-back 少数股东利益调整 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Net (inc)/dec working capital 净（增加）/减少营运资本 | (2,248.0) | (2,487.3) | (1,075.0) | (3,917.0) |
| Others | (4,137.0) | 1,853.0 | 1,950.0 | 1,970.0 |
| Cash flow from operations 经营活动现金流量 | 13,256.0 | 12,388.7 | 19,701.0 | 23,168.0 |
| Capital expenditures 资本支出 | (8,898.0) | (10,673.0) | (10,000.0) | (11,000.0) |
| Acquisitions | (6,686.0) | (2,307.0) | -- | -- |
| Divestitures | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Others | 0.0 | (79.0) | (100.0) | (100.0) |
| Cash flow from investing 投资活动现金流量 | (15,584.0) | (13,059.0) | (10,100.0) | (11,100.0) |
| Dividends paid 支付的股息 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Share issuance/(repurchase) 股份发行/(回购) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Inc/(dec) in debt 债务的增加/(减少) | 2,580.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- |
| Others | 477.0 | 117.0 | -- | -- |
| Cash flow from financing 筹资活动现金流量 | 2,593.0 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total cash flow 总现金流量 | 265.0 | (553.3) | 9,601.0 | 12,068.0 |
| Free cash flow 自由现金流量 | 4,358.0 | 1,715.7 | 9,701.0 | 12,168.0 |
| Free cash flow per share (basic) ($) 每股自由现金流（基本）（$） | 1.23 | 0.54 | 3.02 | 3.76 |
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Goldman Sachs Investment Research global Equity coverage universe
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Global |
48% |
36% |
16% |
64% |
56% |
41% |
|
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