Hedging Goes Out the Door With Burst of China Stocks Euphoria
对冲随着中国股票狂热的爆发而消失

When it comes to Chinese equities, the dominant feeling has turned to optimism.
当谈到中国股票时，主导情绪已转向乐观。

The nation’s bazooka stimulus announced last week has pushed a gauge of Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong to its best weekly surge in almost 13 years, putting it on track to become one of the world’s biggest gainers for 2024. What’s more, market participants chasing the rally have sent the cost of volatility hedges over the next month spiking to a two-year high relative to six-month contracts, indicating confidence for the medium term.
上周宣布的国家“火箭筒”刺激措施使得在香港交易的中国股票指数创下近 13 年来的最佳周涨幅，预计将成为 2024 年全球最大的赢家之一。此外，追逐这一反弹的市场参与者使得未来一个月的波动性对冲成本相较于六个月合约飙升至两年来的最高点，表明对中期的信心。

In just a few days, China boosted measures to spur everything from consumer spending to the housing market and local equities. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which earlier this month was barely up for the year, rebounded more than 22% in 11 consecutive days, its longest streak of gains since its glory days of 2018.
在短短几天内，中国加强了刺激消费支出、房地产市场和地方股票的措施。恒生中国企业指数本月初时几乎没有上涨，但在连续 11 天内反弹超过 22%，这是自 2018 年辉煌时期以来最长的上涨纪录。

“It seems like this time the Chinese government feels the urgency to change,” said Michael Oh, a San Francisco-based portfolio manager at Matthews Asia. “The rally can continue if investors are convinced that the Chinese government will continue to support the market. The Chinese market was just too cheap.”
“这次中国政府似乎感到改变的紧迫性，”位于旧金山的马修斯亚洲投资组合经理迈克尔·欧说。“如果投资者相信中国政府将继续支持市场，反弹就可以继续。中国市场实在是太便宜了。”

Also read: China Stock Euphoria Takes Hold as Traders Overlook Deeper Woes
另请阅读：随着交易者忽视更深层次的问题，中国股市狂热情绪蔓延

Shares of the nation had been struggling as a slew of disappointing economic data had made investors skeptical it would meet its annual expansion target of 5%. Earlier this month, the China Enterprises index’s valuation came close to 7 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months — compared with more than 8 times for the five-year average.
该国的股票一直在挣扎，因为一系列令人失望的经济数据使投资者对其能否实现 5%的年度扩张目标感到怀疑。本月早些时候，中国企业指数的估值接近未来 12 个月预计收益的 7 倍——而五年平均水平则超过 8 倍。

But everything changed last week. China cut interest rates, the banks’ reserve ratio and borrowing costs; pledged billions of dollars to boost equities; announced handouts to spur consumer spending; and even rolled out support to local milk production.
但一切在上周发生了变化。中国降低了利率、银行的存款准备金率和借贷成本；承诺投入数十亿美元以提振股市；宣布发放补贴以刺激消费；甚至推出支持地方乳制品生产的措施。

As stocks rallied, protecting against declines in the China Enterprises gauge became the cheapest since 2015 — the year the gauge reached a multiyear high. At the same time, the number of bullish contracts outstanding hit its highest level since June relative to bearish ones.
随着股票反弹，保护中国企业指数下跌的成本成为自 2015 年以来最低——那一年该指数达到了多年高点。与此同时，牛市合约的未平仓合约数量相对于熊市合约达到了自 6 月以来的最高水平。

In the US, where investors including billionaire David Tepper were among those buying Chinese securities, trading of options on exchange-traded funds tracking the Asian nation’s stocks surged. Bullish bets dominated, with some early call buyers taking profits later in the week and others rolling positions through call spreads. Trading of short-term contracts on American depositary receipts of Chinese companies was bullish.
在美国，包括亿万富翁大卫·泰珀在内的投资者购买中国证券，跟踪该亚洲国家股票的交易所交易基金的期权交易激增。看涨押注占主导地位，一些早期的看涨期权买家在本周晚些时候获利了结，其他人则通过看涨价差滚动头寸。中国公司的美国存托凭证的短期合约交易呈看涨趋势。

Also read: China-Focused ETF Skew, Volatility Bid Higher: Options Snapshot
另请阅读：聚焦中国的 ETF 偏差，波动性上升：期权快照

The sudden spike in volatility could reverse if the rally peters out, warned Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.
突如其来的波动性激增可能会在反弹减弱时逆转，Susquehanna International Group 的衍生品策略联合负责人 Chris Murphy 警告说。

“Investors looking to hedge the move via buying puts should be very careful of a situation where prices pull back but implied volatility levels also drop, severely limiting gains on long puts even if the underlying drops,” he said. Buying put spreads, protective collars or overwriting to reduce exposure makes more sense, he added.
“投资者如果想通过购买看跌期权来对冲市场波动，应该非常小心价格回调但隐含波动率也下降的情况，这将严重限制即使在标的资产下跌时，长期看跌期权的收益，”他说。他补充道，购买看跌价差、保护性领口或覆盖写作以减少风险敞口更为合理。

Marc Franklin, senior portfolio manager for asset allocation at Manulife Investment Management, says that even though concerns remain over the mainland’s economy in the longer term, now optimism prevails.
马尔克·富兰克林，宏利投资管理的资产配置高级投资组合经理，表示尽管对大陆经济的长期担忧仍然存在，但现在乐观情绪占主导。

“We expect a meaningful short-term rally in Hong Kong and China stocks markets owing to the very cautious investor positioning, which creates the potential for a sharp short-covering led bounce,” Franklin said.
“富兰克林表示：‘我们预计由于投资者持仓非常谨慎，香港和中国股市将出现有意义的短期反弹，这为急剧的短期回补反弹创造了潜力。’”