Will the Fed factor turbocharge commodity prices?
美联储因素会推高大宗商品价格吗？

When commodity prices move in tandem, it is usually because real-world events jolt markets. China is the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, so its economic leaps and stumbles matter. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hindered the trade of fuels and grains, causing prices to surge. But every once in a while it is news in the financial sphere that prompts traders to act. And the most common source of such news is America’s Federal Reserve.
当大宗商品价格同步波动时，通常是因为现实世界的事件震动了市场。中国是世界上最大的原材料消费国，因此其经济的飞跃和跌倒至关重要。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰阻碍了燃料和谷物贸易，导致价格飙升。但每隔一段时间，金融领域的新闻就会促使交易者采取行动。此类消息最常见的来源是美国联邦储备委员会。

On August 23rd Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chair, said that the time had probably come to lower interest rates. A first cut is expected on September 18th, when its rate-setting committee meets. The shift would call an end to a cycle of rises that has taken the Fed policy rate from close to zero in 2022 to between 5.25% and 5.5% today. Rate cuts lower the opportunity cost of owning commodities, which, unlike assets such as bonds and property, do not provide a yield. Will the Fed factor deliver the boost to prices that investors hope for and incumbent politicians (not least Kamala Harris) dread?
8月23日，央行主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，降息的时机可能已经到来。预计将于 9 月 18 日利率制定委员会召开会议时首次降息。这一转变将结束美联储政策利率从 2022 年接近于零的水平升至目前 5.25% 至 5.5% 之间的上升周期。降息降低了拥有大宗商品的机会成本，与债券和房地产等资产不同，大宗商品不提供收益。美联储因素是否会带来投资者所希望的、而现任政客（尤其是卡马拉·哈里斯）所担心的物价上涨？

History provides a guide. Since 2000 the Fed has managed three rate-cut cycles: in 2001 (when the dotcom bubble burst), 2007 (as America’s subprime blow-up went global) and 2019-20 (during trade wars with China and the covid-19 slump). The drivers for each were different, helping explain why the cuts varied in their speed, magnitude and, ultimately, impact on commodity markets.
历史提供了指导。自2000年以来，美联储已经经历了三个降息周期：2001年（互联网泡沫破裂时）、2007年（美国次贷危机蔓延至全球时）和2019-20年（与中国的贸易战和covid-19经济衰退期间） 。每个因素的驱动因素各不相同，这有助于解释为什么减产的速度、幅度以及最终对大宗商品市场的影响各不相同。

The first lesson is that rate cuts affect some markets more than others. Lower policy rates enhance the relative appeal of commodities for investors seeking protection against inflation—namely, banks, insurers and pension funds. That has been most apparent in prices for gold, as well as those for industrial metals, such as aluminium and zinc, and crude oil. The commodities least sensitive to rates include “bulk” materials, such as coal and grains, says Tom Price of Panmure Liberum, a bank. Markets for these are ruled by producers and consumers, and obey local factors.
第一个教训是，降息对某些市场的影响比其他市场更大。较低的政策利率增强了大宗商品对于寻求抵御通胀的投资者（即银行、保险公司和养老基金）的相对吸引力。这在黄金、铝、锌等工业金属以及原油的价格中表现得最为明显。 Panmure Liberum 银行的汤姆·普莱斯 (Tom Price) 表示，对利率最不敏感的大宗商品包括煤炭和谷物等“散装”材料。这些产品的市场由生产者和消费者统治，并服从当地因素。

The second lesson is that that the Fed factor varies in length. During a “good” cutting cycle inflation comes under control and economic growth remains decent, meaning that the initial boost to commodity prices tends to last longer as demand for the underlying materials endures. “Bad” cutting cycles, when central bankers cannot prevent recession, provide a fleeting fillip to commodity markets, with the exception of gold, which does better when things turn truly pear-shaped. Oil and metals both did terribly after the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and covid-19, despite the Fed’s rush to slash rates.
第二个教训是美联储因素的长度各不相同。在“良好”的削减周期中，通货膨胀得到控制，经济增长保持良好，这意味着随着对基础材料的需求持续存在，大宗商品价格的最初提振往往会持续更长时间。当央行行长无法阻止经济衰退时，“糟糕”的降息周期会给大宗商品市场带来短暂的刺激，但黄金除外，当情况真正变成梨形时，黄金的表现会更好。尽管美联储急于降息，但在 2007-09 年全球金融危机和新冠肺炎 (covid-19) 爆发后，石油和金属的表现均十分糟糕。

So what should you expect this time? Traders are certainly hoping for a boost. In the week during which Jerome Powell made his remarks, net investor positions across all commodity markets rose to a four-week high of $97bn, up by 13% against the previous week, according to JPMorgan Chase, a bank. Prices for a broad group of industrial metals had already risen by 4-10% in the run-up to Mr Powell’s speech. They will probably rise again when cuts materialise, and may stay high for a while, because indicators suggest that the economic landing under way seems to be of the soft variety, with growth holding up.
那么这次你应该期待什么呢？交易员们当然希望有所提振。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的数据显示，在杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表讲话的一周内，所有大宗商品市场的投资者净头寸升至四周高点970亿美元，较前一周增加13%。在鲍威尔发表讲话之前，多种工业金属的价格已经上涨了 4-10%。当削减落实时，它们可能会再次上升，并可能在一段时间内保持在高位，因为指标表明，正在进行的经济着陆似乎是软着陆，增长保持不变。

Yet the most politically sensitive commodity—oil—may be less affected. Members of the Organisation for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are keen to unwind production cuts, which have deprived the world of 3% of the cartel’s potential crude supply since late last year. Members’ compliance with these cuts is weakening anyway, and oil production is rising outside the cartel. The extra supply will weigh on prices. So will weak demand: even if America’s economy is slowing only gently, it is doing so when China remains beset by problems.
然而，政治上最敏感的大宗商品——石油——受到的影响可能较小。石油输出国组织 ( OPEC ) 成员国热衷于解除减产，自去年底以来，减产已导致该组织的潜在原油供应量减少了 3%。无论如何，成员国对这些削减的遵守正在减弱，而卡特尔之外的石油产量正在上升。额外的供应将给价格带来压力。需求疲软也是如此：即使美国经济只是温和放缓，但在中国仍然受到问题困扰的情况下也是如此。

At the same time, commodities that do benefit from lower rates will probably benefit more than in previous cycles. Gold is going ballistic, boosted by geopolitical tensions, retail demand and central-bank appetite for bullion. MUFG, a bank, predicts that the metal will reach $3,000 an ounce by 2025, up from $2,500 today, which is already a record. Copper could also see a bigger boost than usual. In recent years the metal has become ever more popular among institutional investors owing to its role in the green transition.
与此同时，确实受益于较低利率的大宗商品可能会比之前的周期受益更多。受地缘政治紧张局势、零售需求和央行对黄金的胃口的推动，黄金价格正在上涨。三菱日联银行 ( MUFG ) 预测，到 2025 年，金价将达到每盎司 3,000 美元，高于目前的 2,500 美元，这已经是创纪录的水平。铜也可能会出现比平常更大的提振。近年来，由于其在绿色转型中的作用，这种金属在机构投资者中越来越受欢迎。

Ehsan Khoman of MUFG reckons that this could be enough for commodities as a whole to outperform every other big asset class in the year following the Fed’s first cut. Rather than 2001, he believes the world is back to 1995, when the Fed cut three times mid-cycle to ease the economy over a modest bump, causing commodities to soar. The prospect of low oil prices is a pleasing one for Ms Harris. Investors, for their part, will be happy with rising prices elsewhere. ■
Ehsan Khomanof MUFG认为，这足以让大宗商品整体在美联储首次降息后的一年内跑赢所有其他大型资产类别。他认为，世界已经回到了 1995 年，而不是 2001 年，当时美联储在周期中三次降息，以缓解经济小幅上涨，导致大宗商品价格飙升。哈里斯女士对低油价的前景感到高兴。就投资者而言，他们会对其他地方的价格上涨感到高兴。 ■