谁在赢得白宫的竞选——拜登还是特朗普？

Donald Trump retains a lead over Joe Biden in most of the critical swing states with less than four months to go before the presidential election on November 5.
唐纳德·特朗普在距离 11 月 5 日总统选举不到四个月的时间里，在大多数关键摇摆州中仍领先于乔·拜登。

It shows remarkable staying power for Trump, who exited the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29 per cent after some of his supporters stormed the US Capitol on January 6. Last month, he became the first ex-president convicted of a felony.
特朗普展现出非凡的影响力，他在 2021 年离开白宫时，支持率创纪录地降至 29%，因为他的一些支持者在 1 月 6 日冲击了美国国会大厦。上个月，他成为第一位因重罪被定罪的前总统。

Even so, 48 per cent of American voters would choose Trump for president, according to a recent NYT/Siena poll, versus 42 per cent for Biden. Just 35 per cent of voters approve of Biden and 61 per cent do not.
尽管如此，根据最近的纽约时报/锡耶纳民意调查，48%的美国选民会选择特朗普作为总统，而 42%会选择拜登。只有 35%的选民支持拜登，61%的选民不支持。

With less than four months to go, here is where the race stands.
距离比赛结束不到四个月，以下是比赛的现状。

What are the polls saying right now?
现在民意调查显示什么情况？

Trump and Biden are both polling just above 40 per cent, with Trump currently holding a slender edge of 0.2 percentage points, well within bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages. The independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr — who has been excluded from the campaign’s first presidential debate — has been polling at about 10 per cent.
特朗普和拜登的支持率都略高于 40%，特朗普目前领先 0.2 个百分点，根据 FiveThirtyEight 的平均数据，这个差距在统计误差范围内。独立候选人罗伯特·F·肯尼迪小姐夫人——被排除在竞选的第一场总统辩论之外——支持率约为 10%。

But US presidential elections are not decided by a national vote. Rather, they are settled by winner-takes-all contests in almost all 50 states, which send electors to the Electoral College. Whichever candidate secures 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.
但美国总统选举并不是由全国性投票决定的。相反，它们是通过几乎所有 50 个州的胜者通吃比赛来解决的，这些州会派遣选举人到选举团。无论哪位候选人获得 538 个选举团选票中的 270 个，就会成为总统。

In four crucial “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — Trump holds single-digit leads. Three others — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are essentially tied.
在四个关键的“摇摆州”——亚利桑那州、乔治亚州、内华达州和北卡罗来纳州——特朗普领先优势在个位数之内。另外三个——密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州——基本上持平。

What are the issues that will decide the election — and who’s leading on them?
什么问题将决定选举结果 — 谁在这些问题上领先？

The economy is the top priority for US voters — and Trump is winning on that issue.
经济是美国选民的首要任务-特朗普在这个问题上领先。

Overall, 41 per cent of voters trust Trump with the economy, compared with just 37 per cent for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.
总体而言，根据最新由密歇根大学罗斯商学院与《金融时报》联合进行的民意调查，41%的选民信任特朗普处理经济问题，而只有 37%的选民信任拜登。

A CNN poll in April found that 65 per cent of registered voters called the economy “extremely” important to their vote — higher than any other issue — and near levels not seen since October 2008.
四月份 CNN 的一项民意调查发现，65%的登记选民认为经济对他们的选票“极其”重要，高于任何其他问题，并接近 2008 年 10 月以来未曾见到的水平。

Lingering inflation has hurt Biden, and those most pessimistic about the economy are the voters most likely to want change at the White House. Of those who said the economy was “poor”, 41 per cent said a change in political leadership in Washington would enhance their perception of the economy, while 37 per cent said it would improve with lower inflation and 14 per cent said better personal finances.
持续存在的通货膨胀伤害了拜登，对经济最悲观的选民最有可能希望白宫发生变化。在那些认为经济“糟糕”的人中，41%的人表示华盛顿政治领导层的变化将提升他们对经济的看法，而 37%的人表示通货膨胀降低会改善经济，14%的人表示个人财务状况会更好。

Other top issues include immigration — where polling suggests voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden — preserving abortion rights and lowering healthcare costs. The president is stronger on the last two. His campaign has also put protecting democracy at the centre of his pitch. But a recent Washington Post poll found that more voters in six swing states trusted Trump rather than Biden to handle threats to US democracy.
其他重要问题包括移民问题——民意调查显示选民认为特朗普比拜登更有能力——保护堕胎权和降低医疗费用。总统在最后两个问题上更有优势。他的竞选活动还将保护民主置于核心位置。但最近《华盛顿邮报》的一项民意调查发现，在六个摇摆州，更多选民信任特朗普而不是拜登来处理对美国民主的威胁。

Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy. But voters have consistently said they think the US was spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to monthly FT-Michigan Ross polling. This could help Trump.
大多数美国人不会根据外交政策投票。但选民一直表示他们认为美国在军事和对乌克兰以色列的财政援助上花费过多，根据每月 FT-密歇根罗斯民意调查。这可能有助于特朗普。

Though Trump has not said that he would cut funding for either country, the former president has made clear that he expected other countries in Europe to step up their defence spending when it comes to countering Russia. Republicans have also stalled congressional efforts to approve aid to the two countries — only relenting in mid-April after months of deadlock.
尽管特朗普并未表示他会削减对这两个国家的资金，但前总统明确表示，他期望欧洲其他国家在对抗俄罗斯时增加国防开支。共和党人还阻挠了国会批准向这两个国家提供援助的努力，直到四月中旬才在数月的僵局后松口。

How voters view Biden and Trump as people may be the most important factor.
选民如何看待拜登和特朗普作为人可能是最重要的因素。

A majority of voters say Trump, 78, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will act ethically in office. According to an April poll by Pew Research, 62 per cent of registered voters said they were not confident Biden was mentally up to the job, compared with 59 per cent who said they were not confident that Trump would act ethically.
大多数选民表示，78 岁的特朗普在身体和精神上比 81 岁的拜登更健康，但他们对特朗普在任上是否会表现出道德行为的信心较低。根据皮尤研究中心四月份的一项民意调查，62%的注册选民表示他们不确定拜登是否在精神上胜任工作，相比之下，59%的人表示他们不确定特朗普是否会表现出道德行为。

Last month Trump became America’s first ex-president to be convicted of a felony — and yet the impact has been barely visible in polls. About 90 per cent of Republicans still view him favourably, according to the recent NYT/Siena survey, and 68 per cent of registered voters said it made no difference to them.
上个月，特朗普成为美国第一位因重罪被定罪的前总统，然而这一影响在民意调查中几乎看不到。根据最近的纽约时报/锡耶纳调查显示，大约 90%的共和党人仍然对他持有好感，68%的登记选民表示这对他们没有影响。

Trump still faces other criminal indictments, and while a majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty in them, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll, it is increasingly unlikely that any of the cases will be completed before the November 5 election.
特朗普仍面临其他刑事起诉，尽管大多数独立美国人认为特朗普在其中有罪，但根据 Politico 杂志/Ipsos 民意调查，越来越不太可能在 11 月 5 日选举前完成任何一起案件。

The Supreme Court is also expected imminently to rule on whether Trump would be immune from prosecution for acts committed while he was president.
最高法院预计将立即裁定特朗普是否会对他担任总统期间所犯的行为免于起诉。

Who’s got more money and where is it being spent?
谁有更多的钱，钱花在哪里？

Biden had massively outraised Trump in the money race, according to the more recent quarterly filings, from earlier in the year. And Trump’s coffers had been drained by tens of millions in legal fees.
拜登在最近季度报告中大幅超过了特朗普的资金筹集，而特朗普的资金已被数千万美元的法律费用耗尽。

But Trump has been working hard to close the deficit, with a fundraising spree that included a $50mn gift from a reclusive banking heir. Other billionaire megadonors have pledged to back his campaign too.
但特朗普一直在努力缩小赤字，通过一场筹款狂潮，其中包括一位隐居的银行继承人捐赠的 5000 万美元。其他亿万富翁大额捐助者也承诺支持他的竞选活动。

Much of this cash will be spent on advertisements. Biden’s campaign and its affiliated political action committees have already bought nearly $240mn in ads for the general election, according to FT’s tracking of AdImpact data, compared with $85mn for Trump.
这笔现金中的大部分将用于广告。拜登的竞选活动及其附属政治行动委员会已经根据 FT 对 AdImpact 数据的追踪购买了将近 2.4 亿美元的广告，而特朗普的广告支出为 8500 万美元。

This money has poured into Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and other battlegrounds, which are in for a deluge of ads as the election draws near. The two campaigns announced rival ad blitzes just ahead of the first presidential debate.
这笔资金已流入宾夕法尼亚州、乔治亚州、密歇根州等争夺激烈的州，随着选举日益临近，这些州将迎来一波广告的洪流。两个竞选团队宣布在第一场总统候选人辩论前展开对抗性广告攻势。