META -3%: Looks ok with Revs slightly below bogeys but above street and Q4 guide inline with bogeys/street at $46.5B
OPMs much better at 43% vs street at 39.6% and EPS 6.03 vs street at 5.05. The endless year of efficiency continues..
Top end of exp guide lowered by $1B. Lower end of capex guide increased by $1B for 2024 to $38-$40B
No 2025 capex guide yet…
META RESULTS: Q3
- Revenue $40.59B, +19% y/y, EST $40.25B
- Advertising rev. $39.89B, +19% y/y, EST $39.71B
- Family of Apps revenue $40.32B, +19% y/y, EST $39.92B
- Reality Labs revenue $270M, +29% y/y, EST $312.8M
- Other revenue $434M, +48% y/y, EST $395.5M
- Operating income $17.35B, +26% y/y, EST $16.24B
- Family of Apps operating income $21.78B, +25% y/y, EST $20.47B
- Reality Labs operating loss $4.43B, +18% y/y, EST loss $4.66B
- Operating margin 43% vs. 40% y/y, EST 39.6%
- EPS $6.03 vs. $4.39 y/y, EST $5.25
- Ad impressions +7% vs. +31% y/y, EST +10.8%
- Average price per ad +11% vs. -6% y/y, EST +6.76%
- Average Family service users per day 3.29B, +4.8% y/y, EST 3.25B
- COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT
- "We expect fourth quarter 2024 total revenue to be in the range of $45-48B."
ROKU -7%: Revs beat and Q4 Revs above but Q4 EBITDA guide misses at 30M vs 36.2M
Q4 revs guided to 1.14B vs street at 1.11b with 14% platform growth.
This had become a little more crowded in recent weeks and investors were expecting a better ramp up in EBITDA margins going forward and they are calling more seasonal S&M spend for lower EBITDA guide. Investors more focused on 2025 opex so will be key what they say on the call about that (not much in the shareholder letter on that front)
“We expect these initiatives, including the early positive impacts from our deeper integration with The Trade Desk, along with tailwinds from Political ad spend to continue in Q4. We estimate Q4 Total net revenue of $1.140 billion growing 16% YoY, with Platform revenue growing 14% YoY and Devices revenue growing 25% YoY. We estimate Q4 Total gross profit of $465 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million. We expect Sales and Marketing to be more seasonal this year than in the prior year. As a result, we expect OpEx to be up 9% YoY in Q4. However, Sales and Marketing and total OpEx will be slightly down for the full year 2024, reflecting our ongoing operational discipline. Our expectations for both Q4 and 2024 OpEx YoY growth rates exclude one-time restructuring charges from 2023. We remain confident in our ability to grow Platform revenue in 2025 and beyond as we grow ad demand, lean into our Home Screen as the lead-in for TV, and grow Roku-billed subscriptions.”
ROKU RESULTS: Q3
- Net revenue $1.06B, +16% y/y, EST $1.02B
- Player revenue $154.0M, +23% y/y, EST $154.6M
- Platform revenue $908M, +15% y/y, EST $859.9M
- Streaming hours 32.0B, +20% y/y, EST 31.91B
- R&D expenses $178.8M, -37% y/y, EST $183.4M
- Streaming households 85.5M, +13% y/y, EST 85.29M
MSFT +1%%: Looks solid so far with nice rev and eps beat. Azure +34% hits bogey.
Azure guide comes on the call with bogeys at 32-33%. OPM margins better as OI beats $30.5B vs street at $29.2B
MSFT RESULTS: Q1
- Revenue $65.6B, EST $64.51B
- Microsoft Cloud revenue $38.9B, EST $38.11B
- EPS 3.3 vs 3.11
- Intelligent Cloud revenue $24.09B
- Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +34%
- Productivity and Business Processes revenue $28.32B
- More Personal Computing revenue $13.18B
- Operating income $30.55B, EST $29.21B
- Capital expenditure $14.92B, EST $14.55B
DASH -4% looks ok with GOV of $20B slightly above bogeys of $19.8B which was high end of the guide.
Guide inline with bogeys at $20.6-$21B. Stock one of more crowded longs in internet so down a couple % but otherwise looks solid
DASH GUIDANCE: Q4
- Guides Marketplace gross order value $20.6B to $21B, EST $20.53B
- Guides ADJ EBITDA $525M to $575M, EST $543.2M
RESULTS: Q3
- Marketplace gross order value $20.00B, +19% y/y, EST $19.74B
- Revenue $2.71B, +25% y/y, EST $2.66B
- ADJ gross margin 50.9% vs. 48.7% y/y, EST 50.1%
- ADJ EBITDA $533M, +55% y/y, EST $514.6M
- Orders 643M, +18% y/y, EST 636.88M
- Contribution profit $930M, +45% y/y, EST $898.5M
- Contribution margin 34.4% vs. 29.6% y/y, EST 29.5%
- Operating cash flow $531M, +33% y/y, EST $515.4M
- Free cash flow $444M, +37% y/y, EST $427.1M
- EPS $0.38 vs. loss/shr $0.19 y/y, EST $0.2
CVNA +16%: Another great Q … Q3 Revs $3.66B vs street $3.46B and EBITDA crushes at $429M vs street at $329M
FY24 EBTIDA guide greater $1B-$1.2B vs street at $1.2B but no doubt will be looked at as very conservative given the massive beat they just posted.
Retail units beat at 108.6k vs street at 106.7k
EBAY -10% Not good with an ok Q3 but lower Q4 revs…
This had become sneaky boring long for some so giving back some gains in the post as investors wanted to see more accel in Q4.
$EBAY F/Y GUIDANCE
- Guides net revenue $10.23B to $10.29B, EST $10.32B
GUIDANCE: Q4
- Guides net revenue $2.53B to $2.59B, EST $2.64B
RESULTS: Q3
- ADJ EPS from continuing operations $1.19 vs. $1.03 y/y, EST $1.18
- Net revenue $2.58B, +3% y/y, EST $2.55B
- Active buyers 133M, +0.8% y/y, EST 132.74M
- Gross merchandise volume $18.31B, +1.7% y/y, EST $18.11B
- US gross merchandise volume $8.74B, +1.2% y/y, EST $8.71B
- International gross merchandise volume $9.57B, +2.3% y/y, EST $9.38B
- Free cash flow $646M, -17% y/y, EST $553.8M
ETSY +10% Mixed with better revs and take rate/ebitda but lower sellers and buers and weaker GMS…
Guides GMS to decline roughly LSD % in Q4 which is a bit better than bogeys
$1B repurchase plan
ETSY RESULTS: Q3
- Gross merchandise sales $2.92B, -4.1% y/y, EST $2.97B
- Revenue $662.4M, +4.1% y/y, EST $652.4M
- Marketplace revenue $476.1M, +3.3% y/y, EST $473.3M
- Services revenue $186.3M, +6.2% y/y, EST $179.1M
- EPS $0.45 vs. $0.64 y/y, EST $0.52
- Take rate 22.7% vs. 20.9% y/y, EST 21.9%
- International sales as percentage gross merchandise sales 46% vs. 45% y/y, EST 46.2%
- Active sellers 8.52M, -3.2% y/y, EST 9.02M
- Active buyers 96.71M, -0.7% y/y, EST 96.96M
- ADJ EBITDA $183.6M, +0.8% y/y, EST $177.4M
- ADJ EBITDA margin 27.7% vs. 28.6% y/y, EST 27.2%
