伊拉克取消原油装载，推迟另外两批以助 OPEC+合规

Fears of a major oil spill and fresh shipping disruptions in the Red Sea receded Aug. 29 after Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen agreed to allow rescue ships to access the Greek oil tanker still burning in the key trade chokepoint.

Access to the MV Delta Sounion crude tanker will be granted after "several countries have reached out to ask Ansarullah (Houthis) requesting a temporary truce for the entry of tugboats and rescue ships into the incident area," Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations said by e-mail on Aug. 29. "In consideration of humanitarian and environmental concerns, Ansarullah has consented to this request. The failure to provide aid and prevent an oil spill in the Red Sea stems from the negligence of certain countries, rather than concerns over the possibility of being targeted."

A spokesman for the UN mission in New York said the statement came after a Pentagon comment on Aug. 27 that a third party had tried to send two tugs to help salvage the tanker and the Houthis threatened to attack them.

The Suezmax Sounion, transporting 1 million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude from Iraq to Greece, was hit by several projectiles and lost control Aug. 21, risking an environmental disaster if the oil leaked. Houthis spokesman Mohammad Abdul Salam confirmed on X, formerly Twitter, that access will be allowed after the Houthis reached out to several international organizations, including in Europe, to tow the burning ship.

The EU's Red Sea naval mission Aspides has reported fires at several locations on the main deck of the ship from suspected Houthi explosives on Aug. 23.

Concerns that the Sounion could break up and cause a major spill were sparked by comments from the US Department of Defense on Aug. 27 that the ship appeared to be "leaking oil." The UK Maritime Trading Operations had also previously said a nearby vessel reported the tanker was "believed to be drifting."

But Aspides reiterated Aug. 29 that no oil spill has been seen from the tanker and that it remains anchored and not drifting.

"The European Union, through diplomatic efforts and engagements, is playing a crucial role in facilitating the salvage of MV Sounion," Aspides said in a post on X, adding that it is "preparing to facilitate any courses of action in coordination with European authorities and neighboring countries."

Motor Oil cargo

The tanker was carrying crude for Motor Oil Hellas 180,000 b/d Corinth refinery, in southern Greece, the company's deputy CEO Petros Tzannetakis said in an earnings call Aug. 29.

He said, despite the loss or delay of the Basrah Heavy cargo and current disruptions to Libyan crude exports, the refinery had secured alternative supplies to run "flat out."

Praising "several countries [who] have put a lot of international pressure," Tzannetakis confirmed in the call that tug boats and rescue ships have been allowed to reach the ship to begin salvage operations.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the spot price for Iraq's Basrah Heavy crude at $74.01/b on Aug. 29, a 41-cent/b premium to Iraq's official selling price for the crude grade. The assessment values Sounion's cargo at some $74 million.

The Houthis have launched attacks on more than 100 ships around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since the Israel-Hamas war broke out on Oct. 7, causing two ships to sink.

Major energy and shipping companies, including BP and Frontline, have altered their routes to sail around Africa to avoid Houthi attacks -- a development that has led to more ton-mile demand and bunker consumption.

Platts assessed the Suezmax rate for transporting 140,000 metric tons of crude from the Persian Gulf to the UK Continent at $21.58/t Aug. 29, down 2.9% on the day.

Hedge funds are significantly influencing European gas and LNG by increasing net-long positions, while South Korea's crude imports are expected to remain strong due to extended freight incentives. Additionally, Asia's commitment to sustainable fuel is gaining momentum and Brazil's polyethylene terephthalate recyclers face ongoing challenges from rising feedstock costs.

1. Hedge funds' long positions one of key drivers for bullish European gas, LNG

What's happening? Hedge funds have continued to increase their net-long positions in the European natural gas and LNG markets week on week to reach multiyear highs, with traders seeing funds' positions as the main drivers for the bullishness as well as uncertainty. The net-long position of investment funds increased nearly 14% in the week ending Aug. 16,, marking the strongest stance since July 2, 2021, according to Intercontinental Exchange data.

What's next? Funds are taking a net-long position for 2025, sources said. Given the delays of new LNG supply for 2025, as well as the likely expiry of the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement, traders have seen funds take an increasingly net-long position despite the structurally bearish gas and LNG markets in Europe in the near term ahead of the 2024 winter.

2. South Korea's US crude imports may stay strong on freight incentive extension

What's happening? The South Korean government has been providing freight incentives for crude imports from regions other than the Middle East in an effort to encourage refiners to diversify crude supply sources. Seoul has extended to Dec. 31, 2027, a mechanism that was set to expire at the end of end-2024 that entitles shipments from the Americas, Africa, the North Sea and Mediterranean markets to a freight rebate of up to Won 16/liter (1.4 cents/liter) for the cost difference between lifting Persian Gulf grades, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.

What's next? South Korean refiners are poised to continue purchasing US crude over the coming years, driven by attractive cracking margins and highly efficient logistics. The South Korea-US free trade agreement alone allows cost cuts of up to $2/b for WTI Midland crude purchases and the extended freight rebate would provide South Korean refiners a significant edge over other Asian refiners in terms of overall refining margins, refinery sources said.

3. Asian sustainable fuel supply chain to expand as regional collaboration intensifies

What's happening? Japan, Australia and nine Southeast Asian countries have agreed to develop an extensive sustainable fuels supply chain, primarily focusing on biofuels and other renewable energy sources. This pivotal commitment was formalized at the recent Asia Zero Emission Community Ministerial Meeting in Jakarta. The agreement addresses the rising demand for sustainable aviation fuel, biofuels, hydrogen and ammonia, and includes the creation of a detailed roadmap for establishing these supply chains. The participating nations will also collaborate on best practices for the production, distribution and retailing of cleaner fuels.

What's next? AZEC in Jakarta, funded by Japan, will be pivotal in facilitating information exchange, policy development and regional decarbonization projects. A key development includes a memorandum of understanding between Indonesian and Japanese entities to produce SAF from low-grade coconut oil, emphasizing local sustainable fuel sources. The AZEC roadmap outlines over 400 projects focused on sustainable fuel supply chains, including biomass and other renewables, with support from the Asia Zero Emission Center at Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, which will drive regional decarbonization and climate goals through initiatives like carbon credit markets.

4. Brazilian PET recyclers' margins expected to remain depressed in 2024

What's happening? Brazil's PET recycling industry is grappling with insufficient feedstock supply and low margins. Rising competition for scrap has considerably increased prices for post-consumer PET bales in 2024. However, recyclers struggle to pass these costs to downstream flakes, which are capped by the competitively priced virgin resin from Southeast Asia, leading to near-negative margins. The industry is currently operating at only 70% of its installed capacity.

What's next? In the absence of mandates for post-consumer recycled content, marginal buyers may continue to opt for cheaper virgin resin. Although higher bale prices are drawing investments into scrap collection, supply challenges persist. Current market dynamics indicate that the near to medium term will not see much relief.

Reporting and analysis by Aly Blakeway, Thomas Seth, Nikita Pravilshchikov, Philip Vahn, Samyak Pandey, Gustavo Kruger